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Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:54 pm    Post subject: Fall election??? Good idea or bad??? Reply with quote

Besides Chantal, both Susan Delacourt and L. Ian MacDonald have columns on this subject today. It feels like a trial balloon.

Quote:
Here’s why Canadians deserve a federal election this fall
By CHANTAL HÉBERTStar Columnist
Mon., Aug. 13, 2018

This is the time in the life of a majority government when minds usually turn to the drafting of a final throne speech. For a ruling party going into its last year before a general election, the occasion is an opportunity to try to articulate an auspicious ballot-box question but also, if need be, to ditch legislative baggage not wanted on the electoral voyage.

By all indications, the early summer shuffling of the federal cabinet was a prelude to a pre-election recasting of the Liberal agenda. No one would be surprised if Parliament were prorogued before its scheduled Sept. 17 return date to set the stage for a throne speech later in the fall. A lot of water — more, in fact, than anyone expected — has flowed under the bridge since Justin Trudeau’s sunny opening act almost three years ago.

One way or another, the fall sitting of Parliament will signal the start of a year of intense partisan jostling on both sides of the House. In the era of fixed election dates, all of the above is par for the course.

Except that the times are anything but normal.

With Canada facing watershed choices on the U.S. and climate change, it is hardly a given that the country and/or its political class will be best-served by a prolonged precampaign season.

If there ever were a case to be made for sending voters to the polls earlier rather than later, it would probably be this fall.

The terms of the Canada-U. S. relationship are in an unprecedented flux, with no real end in sight to the upheaval.

At the same time, the large provincial consensus that supported Trudeau’s climate change strategy — a centrepiece of his agenda — is a thing of the past.

In both instances, bitter confrontation has replaced amicable co-operation.

As a result, the next year will feature decisive battles for the Liberal government with both the U.S. and the provinces.

For a prime minister to enter such frays with an election clock ticking loudly in the background is the political equivalent of going into battle with one arm in a cast. Should the Liberal poll numbers go south, Trudeau will be a lame duck in all but name.

Given the acrimonious state of the Trump-Trudeau relationship, the U.S. president may prefer to wait him out rather than give the prime minister any deal that could translate into a pre-election boost.(Emphasis added.)

By the same token, it will be hard to achieve constructive progress on carbon pricing at the federal-provincial table as long as opponents to Trudeau’s plan construe the discussion as a dry run for the upcoming federal campaign.

To maximize his chances of steering a successful course on either front, Trudeau could certainly use a fresh mandate.

By the same token, the alternative approaches of the opposition leaders deserve the full airing of an election campaign before definitive choices are made.

Surely the issues that are about to dominate the final year of Trudeau’s current mandate demand that voters be brought in the loop no less than the original Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement did in 1988.

When columnist Susan Delacourt and her husband, political scientist Don Lenihan, floated the idea of a summer election last spring, it was dismissed in Liberal backrooms as too divisive — and perhaps too risky for the governing party. But since then, the notion that it could be in the national interest to send Canada to the polls early has been reinforced by the post-Ontario-election deterioration of the federal-provincial climate.

The resilience of the big multi-partisan tent Trudeau set up to deal with the Trump White House has yet to be tested against any concessions the current Canadian government might have to make to achieve a NAFTA deal.

As the federal election gets nearer, it will become more tempting to use those concessions against the party that has offered them, rather than to rally behind the compromise they would have paved the way to.

Canada’s decision to legislate fixed election dates was meant to temper a prime minister’s inclination to play with the calendar for partisan advantage. (Emphasis added/) (The law does not actually bind a government to a pre-set fixed date but it does increase the potential political price to pay for bypassing its dispositions.) But what the legislation was not meant to do was to rob Canadians of the opportunity to debate and make timely and fundamental choices as to the way forward for the country.
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/08/13/heres-why-canadians-deserve-a-federal-election-this-fall.html


For Conservatives, that has to be a hard no!

The Liberal position in the country is eroding quickly. The more Canadians experience the consequences of PM Fancy-Sox policy screw-ups. the more they see job losses and a turnabout in the economy, the more they will find the choice clear. Even with such a mush-mouth as the Dairy Industry's leading lobbyist and part-time head of the Conservative Party at the helm.

When the election comes, it will be like a Kathleen Wynne election. Promise the moon ... and worry about the consequences after they're elected!
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This idea has been floated for a few months;

You have to respect the stones of the LPC for considering this;
Walking into an election with an economic point as the primary reasoning for going to the polls;

However, do the Liberals really want to go to the public and ask:

Who is better to negotiate with President Trump, the depth of the Liberal Caucus or the depth of the Conservative Caucus?

On this particular issue (Trade / Economy) the CPC has a few points in its favour going for it:

1) They have already been to the UK having discussions with their current government on getting to the front of the line on free trade with the UK once the leave the EU.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-united-kingdom-trip-1.4563485

2) They have Stephen Harper the most successful Free Trade Prime Minister in Canadian History available to them to advise.

3) They have like previous CPC governments committed to expanding Canada's energy market globally.

https://biv.com/article/2017/11/conservative-leader-andrew-cheer-taxes-pipelines-a

The CPC appears ready to hit the ground running;
They have not been sitting idle across the aisle and have made strides in the last three years on these topics.

All of these are massive pluses in what is now a largely unstable global trade environment especially if the Liberals opt to make this an "Economy Election"

The issue here is not that Stephen Harper's base from 2011 abandoned him, the CPC only secured 218,787 less votes in 2015 than 2011 across the country, to put that into perspective Kathleen Wynne secured 738,689 less votes from 2014 than 2018 in just Ontario.

Trudeau had a legion of first time and one time voters flock to the polls;
If that isn't replicated than he is sitting in opposition.

Right now the LPC needs to re-capture that lightning in a bottle and they simply lack that legalization / electoral reform issue to make that happen.

They seem to feel that "Trump" is that issue;
However I can't imagine the Liberals taking that risk with more than a year in their mandate.

An unnecessary election in the midst of massive deficits attempting to preach they are the party that is within the best interest of the Canadian Economy?

Yikes.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally don't think a fall election is that likely , as we have municipal elections in Ontario this fall and provincial elections in Quebec and New Brunswick


don't see why the liberals would want to go early ? if there was already several conflicting elections taking place across the country


although I do think its possible trudeau picks an election date before the fall of 2019 but that might be spring of 2019 ? as a winter election would seem unlikely in Canada
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think we are there yet.

With the NAFTA screw-up, people are still reacting in a stiff-necked way. It's like a hockey fight. You can't just skate away. Right now, they are standing up for their fellow Canadians.

When the Letterkenny people understand that 'giving up supply management' frees up agriculture, and will lower prices for important food items, they might just see your point!

Sadly, we don't have a leader who can do that. Or even let it happen.

========================

Let me tell you about agriculture in this country. Don't feel sorry for these folks. I live in a heavily agricultural area, and everywhere I look I see expansion and growth. There's a greenhouse up the road that produces Bell peppers. In the last few years, it has doubled its original size three or four times! It is immense, maybe 400 acres.

A farmer these days doesn't keep a team of Nelgiums in the barn so he can plough. He gets competing bids from specialized outfits, or he makes a deal with his seed supplier, and who will buy the crop. At the technological cutting edge, the ploughs are driverless.

Not only that, but farmers get good backup from the Agricultural Schools, and any farmer can get science involved pretty easily. Another growth area that shows the benefit is mushroom producers.

If they are selling into a protected market, the cost of "quota" -- the license to produce eggs or poultry -- is a major cost of his production. The very fact that the price of these 'licenses' to participate in the cartel are so expensive should tell you how profitable they are.

It's like taxi licenses -- their cost in Toronto (and other metropolises) is the most expensive part of what yiu hire when you call a cab. The car may be worth $10,000, the driver is getting minimum wage, the insurance may be $800 a month, but the license's value is over $100,000!

It's one of the best things that Trudeau has going for him ... the weak and inarticulate opposition.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PM dispels murmurings of snap fall election


Rachel Aiello, Ottawa News Bureau Online Producer

@rachaiello
.
Published Thursday, August 16, 2018 11:21AM EDT


OTTAWA – There will be no snap election this fall, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday.

Responding to a question about the prospect of the government calling a federal election a year early, Trudeau said: "It has never been in our plans and it is not in our plans, there will be no federal election this fall."

There had been some murmurings about why the "conditions are almost perfect" for a snap fall election and that "Canadians deserve a federal election this fall" from political columnists.


Their arguments cite the drastically changed dynamics between Canada and the U.S. since the federal Liberals came to power in 2015 with a majority government; and the increasing disagreement over implementing a national carbon tax, as possible reasons for voters to go to the polls a year before scheduled.

The federal Conservative Party sent out a fundraising pitch to their supporters on Wednesday raising the possibility of an early election being called, and asking the party faithful to chip in to an "early election fund." Citing the same opinion pieces, the party said they need to be ready because "the Liberals want to catch us off guard."

“We have a lot of work that we’ve done, we have a lot of work that we’re going to continue to do,” Trudeau said to media in Quebec, offering the economy, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, and renegotiating NAFTA as examples.

The next federal election is set for Oct. 21, 2019.


https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-dispels-murmurings-of-snap-fall-election-1.4055515
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If LPC internal polling looks anything like this weeks Forums Poll than I completely understand them distancing themselves from the idea of an election.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
If LPC internal polling looks anything like this weeks Forums Poll than I completely understand them distancing themselves from the idea of an election.


I didn't even know there had been a forum poll but your right there was some info in one and it had the cpc ahead although because of a huge lead in Alberta but either way the liberal numbers aren't good enough to justify an early election call that no one seems to actually want


an election this fall was always highly unlikely due to the quebec provincial and Ontario municipal elections already scheduled
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Except ... it is only going to get worse as time goes by.

What have they got in their bag of tricks to turn things around?

The best thing they have going for them is Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet. What a group of "leaders" ... Three stooges. It's a shame that this trio is 'the best that Canada can produce.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
If LPC internal polling looks anything like this weeks Forums Poll than I completely understand them distancing themselves from the idea of an election.


I didn't even know there had been a forum poll but your right there was some info in one and it had the cpc ahead although because of a huge lead in Alberta but either way the liberal numbers aren't good enough to justify an early election call that no one seems to actually want

an election this fall was always highly unlikely due to the quebec provincial and Ontario municipal elections already scheduled


As well as the LPC having a massive lead in Quebec;

For the Liberals to go to the polls they need to assure they can secure another four year majority mandate and while they appear in a position to add 20+ seats in Quebec the Ontario numbers indicate they could lose twice that in Ontario alone.

Add that to the likelihood they won't sweep Atlantic Canada this time and they will take some losses out West, they won't risk it.

The last thing Trudeau wants is to have a snap election and have it result in a slim CPC majority which what the Forums Seat Breakdown implies.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The election is 14 months away. Trump has thrown all of the Liberal plans into a cocked hat. Tax increases that he might have gotten away with became potential job-killers. The carbon tax seems to be another one.

And he is going to be left standing up for the dairy farmers as the auto workers twist in the wind. More tariffs may be imposed.

The Liberals are out of step with the times.

This is where we come back to Bernier, the wild card. Who better to stop those 20 seats going to the Liberals? People in Quebec know incompetence when they see it. The NDP vote has to go somewhere, and in normal circumstances, it would flow to the Liberals -- but these are NOT normal times.

This is turning into a historically bad government.

What if Scheer ousts Bernier, and then has to form a coalition with Bernier after the election? What a delicious irony that would be.
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Fall election??? Good idea or bad???

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