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Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:43 am    Post subject: The effective opposition to Trudeau is forming Reply with quote

Quote:
Doug Ford tilts the table away from Trudeau's agenda
Premiers are still struggling to find common ground on reducing interprovincial trade barriers

David Cochrane · CBC News · Posted: Jul 15, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 5 hours ago

When Canada's premiers gather in New Brunswick for their annual summer meetings this week, the main event undoubtedly will be the debut of Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

Officials from multiple provinces expect the country's newest provincial leader to dominate the two days of meetings in scenic St. Andrews. "There's no doubt people are waiting to see how Ford will act," one official said. Another bluntly added: "I'm betting it's going to be Fordapalooza."

Ford already showed himself to be a disruptive force in federal-provincial relations by scrapping Ontario's participation in a cap-and-trade market and slamming Ottawa for its handling of asylum seekers, many of whom have made their way to Ontario after crossing the Canada-U.S. border.

The testy relationship between Ontario and the federal government was on full display at a federal-provincial immigration ministers meeting in Winnipeg on Friday, when Ontario's Lisa McLeod refused to join her counterparts at the podium for a closing news conference.

Federal Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen noted MacLeod's absence from the podium and then called Ontario's comments on asylum seekers "irresponsible," saying "it's divisive, it's fear mongering and it's not Canadian."

"The track record of collaboration between Canada and Ontario is being challenged by the new (Ontario) government," Hussen said.

MacLeod later suggested Hussen should "sit down, have a nice cup of tea, calm down a little bit and maybe phone me and apologize for calling me un-Canadian."

New Conservatives change the mix
Canada may want to put the kettle on. Ford is just the latest — and most significant — change to a roster of premiers that creates new challenges for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's national agenda, most notably on climate change.

When Trudeau and the premiers met in Vancouver in March 2016 to start discussions on a national climate change plan, there were seven Liberal premiers and two New Democrats. The conservative outlier was Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.

But now there is a bloc of conservative governments in the middle of the country. Ontario and Saskatchewan are trying to scuttle the carbon tax entirely. Manitoba is balking at fully implementing it.

Officials in other provinces are eager to see if an alliance forms between Ford, Manitoba's Brian Pallister and Saskatchewan's Scott Moe at the premiers' table.

A federal source who spoke to CBC News last week said that shifting federal-provincial landscape is partly behind Trudeau's decision to unveil changes to his cabinet this Wednesday.

Atlantic concerns
There are even signs of stress in the Atlantic provinces Trudeau's Liberals virtually swept in 2015. Prince Edward Island said last week that if Trudeau wants to impose a carbon tax on Islanders he will have to do it himself, as P.E.I. argues it can reduce emissions without it.

"We're fighting for Islanders here. We're saying if the federal government's plan is to reduce carbon, we have a plan to reduce carbon," P.E.I.'s Environment Minister Richard Brown said. "They can impose their tax."

A senior politician in Newfoundland and Labrador grumbled privately that it will fall to the province to sell the Trudeau carbon tax in an oil-reliant economy already crippled by record deficits, a high cost of living and an unemployment rate hurtling toward 20 per cent.

New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant hopes to use this week's meetings to establish a united front on trade. Given the swelling trade war with the United States, Gallant argues the country can't appear to have internal divisions.

On that front, it shouldn't be hard to get a common statement rebuking U.S. President Donald Trump for building tariff walls along the most profitable border in world history.

"I think it's going to be very important, as premiers, to be as united as possible," he told CBC Radio's The House.

"There's a lot more that binds us together than divides us."

But the premiers are still struggling to find common ground on reducing interprovincial trade barriers. Gallant said he hopes the new friction in north-south trade can help accelerate the removal of east-west barriers that still exist more than a year after the Canada Free Trade Agreement was announced.

More new faces to come
Ford, Moe, B.C.'s John Horgan and Nunavut's Joe Savikataaq will all attend their first Council of the Federation meeting this week. There are signs of more changes on the horizon.

Ford defeated and replaced Kathleen Wynne — Trudeau's staunchest provincial ally — with his resounding electoral win in June. Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard faces a tough election on Oct 1 that could lead to the toppling of yet another Liberal premier.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley is still a staunch Trudeau ally — especially now that the prime minister has forked over billions to ensure she gets her pipeline. But Notley faces a United Conservative Party under former Harper cabinet minister Jason Kenney and has a date with Alberta voters in 2019. Kenney would be unlikely to bring a bouquet of wild roses to a first ministers meeting with Trudeau.

As each new face arrives at the premiers' table, the climate consensus forged in Trudeau's first year in office erodes. It seems almost certain that Trudeau will have to impose his carbon tax on a growing number of provinces covering a significant portion of the national economy — and then perhaps rebate the revenue directly to Canadians instead of transferring it to the provinces.

As one senior federal official suggested to CBC News, that may end up being more politically popular in the long run.

But it all shows the challenge of trying to negotiate an ambitious, long-term national plan — especially when election cycles don't synch up and allies come and go.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4746748


This is a good article because it brings together how the EFFECTIVE opposition to Trudea's government is taking place. It doesn't happen in Parliament (much) and what happens there is largely symbolic. It happens between the premiers and the federal government because, for the federal government to do what it must do, it has to intrude into provincial areas of responsibility.

It isn't Doug Ford's doing. It's the way Canada works, I guess. It happened with Trudeau the Elder ...who brought regional tensions to a peak that were only exceeded by Meech Lake and the Referendum.

It's a good thing we don't have to depend on Andrew ... the Dairy Industrys Man of the Year and 'the guy that keeps the opposition out of the trade bungling.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ford won a fairly decisive and fairly high turn out election;
He is also assuring that he is keeping the promises he made on the campaign trail fairly quickly.

He has the benefit of popularity and the momentum associated with the honeymoon period.
Whereas the Federal Liberals are polling at amongst the lowest levels during their tenure in government and are struggling with controlling their message.

The opposition to the government agenda is mounting with nearly every passing Provincial Election, now is the time when we see how effective they can be facing a significant opposition with the power to block their agenda.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To misquote someone ... Persistence, guile and grit beat idealistic blather and good hair every time.

When I say the opposition is forming, I mean it in a more permanent and less poll-measured way. It's like the regional barons are rallying the people, and assembling. Kenney will likely join Ford and Moe.

It's shaping up as a replay of Lougheed/Trudeau days. The barons don't like the carbon tax. That's going to be a fight. It isn't clear where they will come down on the trade negotiations but Justin better not be one of the hold-outs.


Last edited by Bugs on Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It goes beyond just Moe and Ford;

Brian Pallister ended a streak of NDP governments going back to 1999 in Manitoba, Kenney appears posed to win back Alberta, and any government not led by Couillard after the October election will be an issue for the Prime Minister.

Then who knows what happens New Brunswick.

The guard is changing.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think this is how Canada actually works.

The ying and yang of Canadian politics revolve around expanding the welfare state or consolidating it.

The Conservatives are the consolidators. As such, they stop the growth of the welfare state -- they don't (on record) actually cut it back very successfully -- until some measure of prosperity appears, where they lose power to the free-spenders.

The problem is that the Conservative Party is not the sort of organization that takes the complaints of the lower orders seriously. They are entirely top-down at the federal level. The present leader is in thrall to the Quebec milk cartel, so the Conservative Party can't start listening to the snivellers in the auto sector, for instance.

There may be other reasons. But effective opposition to the federal government doesn't appear until it takes shape in 'interprovincial politics'. A critical mass of premiers builds to challenge parts of the policy being thrust on the population.

The problem is that expanding the welfare state intrudes on provincial areas of responsibility. As it now stands, the main thing Ottawa does is transfer money. It has the useful effect of preventing the public from getting accountability. Nobody is ever responsible, it's a myriad of committees ... but it also is a chokepoint that federal policy has to go through.

They can't be made accountable by Parliament, but it can be compelled to negotiate on a certain narrow range of items. Like the carbon tax. Excise taxes belong to the provinces. Who's kidding who about what this is? But on trade -- not so clear. But they can squeak about illegal immigration that the 'idealists' are foisting off on us because of cost, not because some of them may pop off and kill a dozen or so ...
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
To misquote someone ... Persistence, guile and grit beat idealistic blather and good hair every time.


I glossed over that the first time and didnt read it;
LOL well done.
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The effective opposition to Trudeau is forming

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