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Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:46 am    Post subject: What's next for the Liberal Party of Ontario? Reply with quote

Quote:
What’s next for the Liberal Party after its historic Ontario election defeat?
By Josh K. Elliott Global News

After a historic defeat to the Ontario Liberal Party, Kathleen Wynne announced she's resigning as the head of the party.

The Ontario Liberals are in for at least four long years of rebuilding and soul-searching after a historic defeat in Thursday’s provincial election.

With just seven seats remaining from the 55 they enjoyed before the election, the road back looks bleak, especially with the Liberals losing recognized party status.

But the Liberal Party has shown in the past that it can come back strong from a disastrous result.

“The party’s fortunes, especially for the Liberals, can turn around very quickly,” said political science professor Nelson Wiseman.

Wiseman, of the University of Toronto, points out that the Liberals need only look to the federal party for evidence that they can come roaring back in 2022

[....].

Perhaps the most damaging result of this election for the Liberals will be losing recognized party status.

With fewer than eight seats, the Liberals will no longer be called on during Question Period, and will be restricted to asking questions every few weeks from the back benches of the legislature.

They’ll also lose access to research funding, which will put more strain on the party coffers as they work on their comeback.

“It’s not a sunny future,” Wiseman said.

© 2018 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4260426/ontario-liberal-party-kathleen-wynne-election-loss-next-leader/


The article is an attempt to put a rosy glow on the Liberal Party of Ontario's future prospects. It uses Trudeau's election as an example, but they don't take a longer perspective. When Martin resigned, the Liberals went through three leaders before they found a winner. When Mulroney took the PCs down to 2 seats, the party of Joe
Clark would have languished -- as the 4th party -- for decades. In the end they had to do what Clark has said they'd never do, and merge with their hated opponents.

In my estimation, the Liberals will have to become the official opposition before they become the government again. They are not an official party, so they aren't in the normal rotation as far as questions are concerned. They may get one question a month, like the Green Party will.

If you were jumping from municipal to provincial politics, would the Ontario Liberals be a good place to start?

If the NDP smarten up and act as a resposible opposition, the Liberals will have a long road back.


Last edited by Bugs on Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:11 am; edited 1 time in total
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the liberals appear to have only won 7 seats , 1 short of the 8 needed for official party status ( although they might ask for a recount in Thunder Bay Atikokan although its unlikely to change the ndp win )


that means its going to be a long road back in my view , especially if Ford ends the per vote subsidy which is highly expected , the liberals could soon also find themselves broke and without any reason for anyone to donate to them

although the only good news for them might be the fact they still held 7 seats and a few of there higher profile now former cabinet ministers

- Don Valley East ( Michael Coteau )
- Don Valley West ( Kathleen Wynne )
- Scarborough Guildwood ( Mitzie Hunter )
- Thunder Bay Superior North ( Michael Gravelle )
- Orleans ( Marie France Lalonde )
- Ottawa Vanier ( Nathalie Des Rosier )
- Ottawa South ( John Fraser )


although don't expect wynne to stick around for long in Don Valley West , its almost certain she'll be gone before this term is over , it will be too hard to stay in the legislature , meaning they could fall down to 6 seats if they were to lose the by election in what was a very close riding this election


I'd also be surprised if Michael Gravelle ran for re-election as he's currently 69 and would be close to 75 by the next election so they'll have to defend that riding which could prove hard to hold as well


but overall looks like it will be a long road back and there looming leadership race won't generate as much interest as it would of had the winner became premier ( had wynne quit before the election ) the prize is much smaller now and its not clear who would even want the job
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reading the entrails ...

The big surprise, for me, given the polls is this -- the NDP share of the vote went from 23.75% t0 23.8%!

The movement came from the collapse of the Liberals. Their share of the vote declined to half what it was previously. Where did that vote go?

All we kow is that the PC share of the vote increased by 9%. Probably a lot of that was the PC votes Hudak lost in the previous election. Let's say 6% of it came from the Liberal fallout.

What strikes me most is there was a 7% increase in turnout. I think that's what won the election for Ford. Two things here -- first the media played a role in creating the notion that Ford was so repellant that the masses were moving to the NDP. That, no doubt, put wind in their sails.

But it also probably brought new PC support out as well.

In my mind, it confirms the notion that the election was about getting rid of Wynne, above all, and they have done that. It will be hard for her to show her face. It's a massive rejection.

If this were a PR voting system, the NDP and the Wynne crowd would be negotiating the terms of their new government right now. The PCs would only have 50 seats.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The knives were already out last night amongst the caucus and their supporters.

Watching Liberal pundits discuss how Charles Sousa had many private sector offers but stayed in government due to some sort of civic duty and implying it was common knowledge he was "against" the last budget but did was he was asked my the Premier shows me all I need to know about the tone of the next leadership race.

The Ontario Liberals need someone from outside the party or somewhat far removed from the party. They also will almost certainly move back toward the center as with the Greens now getting some attention the space they currently occupy politically is crowded.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

What strikes me most is there was a 7% increase in turnout. I think that's what won the election for Ford. Two things here -- first the media played a role in creating the notion that Ford was so repellent that the masses were moving to the NDP. That, no doubt, put wind in their sails.

But it also probably brought new PC support out as well.


I think the media coverage cut both ways;
There were houses in ridings that never voted, never had the interest, and were quick to let any volunteer who knocked know that.

The amount of voters who had no interest in the 905s specifically that came out just to assure the NDP didn't win was staggering.

In a way that I am sure in Northern Ontario and Old Toronto was the case with voters trying to stop the PCs.

The PCs did something last night which had only ever been done once prior;
They got more than 2,000,000 votes.

The Liberals secured 2,090,001 in 2003, but failed to pop above that number again.
Last night the PCs secured 2,322,422, the most in Ontario history.

While getting rid of Wynne may have been the underlining theme, there was certainly a fundamental battle that took place and seemingly balanced budgets won.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When you start looking at this in raw numbers of votes rather than percentages of votes, you see a clearer picture. And Cosmo has done that.

Hundreds of thousands of people came out to vote for Doug Ford. More than anybody detected before the race. As I sense it -- and I could be wrong -- the silent majority was determined to stop the Left. They didn't think of it that way, but part of what drove the participation level up was the glimpse of an NDP victory or at least a minority government.

But it also caused a stir that ended up with the NDP only getting their regular share of this expanded voter pool. It means that for every voter that was inspired to vote by this forlorn hope, three or four others showed up to vote them down!

I don't think it's Ford's soaring rhetoric. More likely, he's the best choice because they want 'sensible' government. It was en endorsement of Ford.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

I don't think it's Ford's soaring rhetoric. More likely, he's the best choice because they want 'sensible' government. It was en endorsement of Ford.


I think this is spot on.

With the final numbers out we now know that voter turn out was at the highest level since the 1995 election and we know the PCs secure the most votes cast for a winning party by more than 300,000 in the history of Ontario.

This was not the snoozefest, hold your nose, late spring election nearly everyone expected.

Voters were motivated in a way we haven't seen in more than two decades.

I firmly believe it came down to an ideological battle between spending within our means and not and the "not" camp had every party that wasn't the PCs within it.


Last edited by cosmostein on Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An interesting article;

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.4697533

Sandra Pupatello isn't ruling out running for leadership;
She also makes it very clear she is going to work to move the party back to the center.

It will be something to watch for as to if this will be the norm amongst candidates or the leadership hopefuls will continue to push to occupy the same political space as the Greens and NDP.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a good article. I have a lot of respect for Susan Pupatello, because she is fundamentally a practical person. You won't find her compelling people to use special pronouns for all the shades of the rainbow.

Look at how she looks at the leadership of the Liberal Party as a career opportunity. This is how a realistic, practical person would see the leadership of the Liberal Party as a full-time jobs. It's a low-paying marginal role, leading a non-party in the House.

Isn't that what we want? To set up a dynasty? The Liberal Party of Kathleen Wynne was miles from where the population was. The province needs a long-term plan about its financing, and if the other parties won't collaborate on it, then our party has to try their damned best to keep the other guys out of power for several terms.

Why not figure out a way to get Sandra Pupatello into the Ford cabinet instead? And any other center-left types that might be tempted?

On the Liberals third attempt at finding a new leader, perhaps, the party will fall into the hands of a bunch of 'marketers and hustlers' like the Federal Liberal Party has -- unprincipled people fueled by delusions and greed.

In the process, the Federal Liberals lost their 'touch'. They have become clumsy and stupid. You don't see any Marc Lalonde types in Justin's cabinet. With the exception of Ralph Goodale, all the older, wiser heads have been given golden parachutes. And now we see that our present PM and the gang that run him are not up to the job.

There is now no way that they don't "lose" on -- as Mr Scheer would say -- the "trade file". Trudeau is so stunned he doesn't even know why this has happened to him! His eyebrows want to go hide. He stands up for Canada by pleading to be understood! When he bleats out that "Canada won't be pushed around" ... he ends up making Trump look good!

And suddenly the girls will feel the urge to cringe. And it will be over.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the liberals are selecting an intern leader but its unclear who is even running , likely be one of the 7 remaining mpp's )



Ontario Liberals start looking for replacement for Wynne

By The Canadian Press. Published on Jun 12, 2018 4:52pm


The Ontario Liberals begin to set in place a plan to replace Kathleen Wynne. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Ryan



TORONTO — The Ontario Liberal Party has begun the process of selecting an interim leader following Kathleen Wynne’s resignation last week.

Party president Brian Johns said Tuesday in a statement he has informed the party executive that an interim leader will be selected within the coming days but does not say anything further about the timeline.

An interim leader is selected by a vote of the party caucus, the presidents of riding associations without an elected Liberal legislator and party executive members.

Johns says once the vote is called those eligible have 24 hours to cast a ballot with a winner decided by a simple plurality.

Johns says more information about candidates for the interim leadership will be made available in the coming days.

Wynne’s resignation came after the party suffered the worst election defeat in its history, reduced to seven seats in the provincial legislature — one shy of attaining official party status.

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/06/12/ontario-liberals-start-looking-for-replacement-for-wynne/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liberal caucus endorses MPP John Fraser for interim leader post



The Ontario Liberal party will vote on their next interim leader, with the caucus unanimously supporting MPP John Fraser as a candidate.

.


Shawn Jeffords, The Canadian Press
Published Wednesday, June 13, 2018 1:58PM EDT
Last Updated Wednesday, June 13, 2018 7:21PM EDT


TORONTO -- An Ottawa-area legislator could become the interim leader of Ontario's Liberals, who suffered a massive defeat in last week's provincial election.

The Liberal caucus, which was reduced to seven members, unanimously endorsed John Fraser for the position on Wednesday evening.

Their selection will be voted on over the next 24 hours by party executive members and riding association presidents who do not have elected legislators representing them at Queen's Park, the party's president said.


Fraser, a backbencher in the Liberal government, was first elected in a byelection in 2013 that was called after former party leader Dalton McGuinty stepped down.

His endorsement came after the outgoing Liberals held their final cabinet meeting. The majority of Liberal legislators lost their seats as their Progressive Conservative rivals secured a majority, and many acknowledged Wednesday that their party now faces real challenges.

Outgoing premier Kathleen Wynne -- who resigned as Liberal leader on election night -- said it was an emotional day.

"That it's coming to an end, this part of it, it's a challenge," she said. "But it has been such an honour to serve and I'm going to continue to find ways to serve both my constituents and the people of the province."

Michael Coteau, the province's minister of children and youth services who was re-elected in a hotly contested race, said the party must now figure out what went wrong.

"(We must) better understand why that collapse took place," said "Where was the disconnect between our party, our brand, and the people of Ontario? And how do we re-establish that relationship and that trust."

Economic Development Minister Steven Del Duca, who was defeated in his suburban riding north of Toronto, said the desire for change was "visceral" while campaigning.

"I think the party needs to take a bit of a step back," he said. "Do all of the analysis that's required when you face this kind of result ... we've done this before and we've managed to rise again. And we will, but it will take time."

Longtime Liberal legislator Michael Gravelle, one of the seven Liberals to be elected, said the coming months will be tough.

"You could feel a difference at the doors," he said of the campaign. "It was apparent to me that we were in a very competitive race from the very beginning ... It will be a real challenge."

Compounding the issue is the fact that the Liberals are now one seat short of qualifying for official party status, which means they have access to fewer resources and less speaking time in the legislature.

Gravelle said the party will need to rely on the basic resources provided to them as legislators in the coming days to represent their constituents and fulfil critic duties in opposition.

Western University associate political science professor Cristine de Clercy said while on the surface the election results are devastating for the Liberals, popular support for the party still gives a new leader something to build on.

"The Liberal core actually held," she said. "An awful lot of people voted for Liberal candidates and some of those people were elected. And a lot of Ontarians voted for the Liberal party knowing that their Liberal candidate was going to be defeated. They still voted Liberal anyway."

De Clercy said the party will now have to get down to the hard, unglamorous work of being an opposition party.

"The new leader will have to teach them how to be in the opposition benches," she said. "This is going to be Terra incognita. They won't know how to function really in this role and it's an important role to help rebuild the party."

Ontario transitions over to a Progressive Conservative government on June 29.


https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/liberal-caucus-endorses-mpp-john-fraser-for-interim-leader-post-1.3972037
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
It's a good article. I have a lot of respect for Susan Pupatello, because she is fundamentally a practical person. You won't find her compelling people to use special pronouns for all the shades of the rainbow.

Look at how she looks at the leadership of the Liberal Party as a career opportunity. This is how a realistic, practical person would see the leadership of the Liberal Party as a full-time jobs. It's a low-paying marginal role, leading a non-party in the House.

Isn't that what we want? To set up a dynasty? The Liberal Party of Kathleen Wynne was miles from where the population was. The province needs a long-term plan about its financing, and if the other parties won't collaborate on it, then our party has to try their damned best to keep the other guys out of power for several terms.

Why not figure out a way to get Sandra Pupatello into the Ford cabinet instead? And any other center-left types that might be tempted?


I wouldn't be opposed to it;
However I think in the case of Pupatello taking on the OLP leadership is win-win for her;

She hasn't sat as a MPP for the OLP since 2011 and can easily distance herself from the Wynne version of the party as she is already starting to do.

You also have a tiny caucus remaining with little leadership material within it as the majority of the Wynne Loyalists who would be a threat to leadership largely watching from the parking lot. (Sousa, Naqvi, Flynn, Thibeault, Del Duca, etc).

Which means you can have far more control over the executive and the nominees for 2022. It allows her far more freedom to move the party right of where they were left on election night.

Expectation also have to be incredibly low;
In 2022 if she secures 20 seats from the NDP and 6 from the PCs (even if there is still a PC majority) its hard to replace her when you are coming up from 7 seats. Not many leaders get two elections anymore, in this case it would be a slam dunk.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ottawa-area MPP John Fraser appointed interim Ontario Liberal leader



Shawn Jeffords , The Canadian Press
Published Thursday, June 14, 2018 6:16PM EDT
Last Updated Thursday, June 14, 2018 11:04PM EDT


TORONTO -- The new interim leader of Ontario's Liberals says grassroot members will play a crucial role in rebuilding the party after its stunning defeat in last week's election.

Ottawa-area legislator John Fraser was selected Thursday after a vote by caucus members, riding association presidents and party executives.

In a brief statement, Fraser acknowledged there will be years of rebuilding ahead for the party, but promised to work toward the renewal process.



"I will be communicating with our membership over the coming days and am committed to working closely with them, and with our supporters across the province to build a strong and inclusive Liberal Party," he said.

The Liberal caucus, which was reduced to seven members, had unanimously endorsed Fraser for the position on Wednesday evening.

Liberal Party President Brian Johns lauded Fraser as a dedicated party member who has been involved in politics in different capacities for 40 years.

"John is extremely committed to our Liberal family," Johns said. "And I believe he has the right mix of experience, dedication, and hunger for hard work, that our party needs as we begin the process of reconnecting with our grassroots."

A backbencher in the Liberal government, Fraser was first elected in a byelection in 2013 that was called after former party leader Dalton McGuinty stepped down.

Fraser's appointment comes a day after the Liberals held their final cabinet meeting, a gathering that focused on rebuilding the party that governed the province for the last 15 years.

Outgoing Premier Kathleen Wynne resigned as party leader on election night after her government was defeated by Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives. The Tories, who won a majority, will take power on June 29.

Fraser has never held a cabinet post but has served as the parliamentary secretary to the minister of health, minister of northern development and mines, and the minister of natural resources.

Prior to being elected Fraser, a married father of three, worked in McGuinty's Ottawa constituency office for 14 years.

University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman said the degree of difficulty of Fraser's job will depend greatly on whether party manages to gain official status in the legislature.

Wynne has said she hopes Ford will change the rules to grant the Liberals' the designation, which currently requires eight seats in the legislature. Ford has only said he'd talk to his team about the issue in the days and weeks to come.

Official party status brings, among other things, research resources and allocated speaking time in the legislature. Without those resources the rebuilding process could take longer and be harder, Wiseman said.

"That's a very big factor," he said. "If they don't have official party status they can't serve on legislative committees. If they don't have the research support ... they'll be swinging blindly when large technical bills come up."

Wiseman said the interim leadership role will be demanding and likely see Fraser required to travel across the province to meet with grassroots party members and try to get media attention.

"It's hard work," he said. "It's a 24-7 job. It's very demanding."

Wiseman said it has also become an expectation of modern politics that the interim leader won't run to helm the party permanently, something that didn't used to be the case.

"Once upon a time you'd be the interim leader and then it was seen as a stepping stone to becoming the leader," he said. "Leadership races have become these big productions now where everyone gets a vote and the onus is now selling tens of thousands of memberships."


https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ottawa-area-mpp-john-fraser-appointed-interim-ontario-liberal-leader-1.3974098
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( an article in the hill times , indicates both Mark Holland and Adam Vaughan are considering running for Ontario liberal party leadership )




The Hill Times‏Verified account @TheHillTimes


Following Following @TheHillTimes



GTA Grit MPs Holland, Vaughan considering run for Ontario Liberal leadership #cdnpoli https://bit.ly/2JPxbGx
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Either one of them are surprisingly good, but the problem is, Vaughn is more a left-wing Greenie than a Liberal ... Holland seems to me to be a bit of a flake. He sponsored a private members bill advocating lowing the federal voting age to 16!

Who would "top up" their salaries?
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What's next for the Liberal Party of Ontario?

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