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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its interesting that the pollsters are returning to show a PC victory this evening;
However I will wait for the only poll that matters tonight :)
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:


This is the latest from http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

Quote:
The final round of polls in the Ontario election campaign seems to indicate only the slightest change from the previous LISPOP projection. However it is becoming apparent that the NDP's previous momentum has stalled, and a Conservative majority government seems probable. The blended aggregation of polls among over 9000 respondents suggests a popular vote distribution of Conservatives 38%, NDP 37%, and Liberals 19%. This translates into a seat distribution of Conservatives 69, NDP 50, Liberals 4, and Greens 1.


PCs .... 69
NDP ... 50
Libs .... 4
Green .. 1

This has gone up since this morning! It means, whatever flutter of enthusiasm there was for the NDP, as the decision day approaches there is a movement back to their first choice.

We will be able to see who is more correct starting about 27 hours from now.


Interesting;
Guelph is going to be a fun race to watch because it has the potential to be a four horse race.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:


This is the latest from http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

Quote:
The final round of polls in the Ontario election campaign seems to indicate only the slightest change from the previous LISPOP projection. However it is becoming apparent that the NDP's previous momentum has stalled, and a Conservative majority government seems probable. The blended aggregation of polls among over 9000 respondents suggests a popular vote distribution of Conservatives 38%, NDP 37%, and Liberals 19%. This translates into a seat distribution of Conservatives 69, NDP 50, Liberals 4, and Greens 1.


PCs .... 69
NDP ... 50
Libs .... 4
Green .. 1

This has gone up since this morning! It means, whatever flutter of enthusiasm there was for the NDP, as the decision day approaches there is a movement back to their first choice.

We will be able to see who is more correct starting about 27 hours from now.


Interesting;
Guelph is going to be a fun race to watch because it has the potential to be a four horse race.




Guelph is one of the more intriguing races although I'm not sure the legislature will be any different if there is 1 green mpp in it , as Mike Schneider would essentially be an independent as they won't have official party status


my understanding of Guelph is the green's do really well downtown and in that part of city but rest is a bit tougher for them and traditionally liberal and ndp polls , the election taking place in June also means there isn't as many U of Guelph students around to vote green either


Guelph doesn't seem to have been much of a pc target , ford didn't campaign there and candidate was appointed close to the election call , haven't really followed his campaign ( checked his twitter page and not much there doesn't seem to have been an aggressive campaign or that active ) , but pc's will still likely do better there than in 2014
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there have been some minor issues with the new electronic voting machines but overall few issues this election )


Technical problems frustrate voters at two polling stations




By Julien GignacStaff Reporter

Thu., June 7, 2018



Torontonians are hitting the polls Thursday and while some residents are reporting a “seamless” experience with the province’s new electronic poll systems, voters at two polling stations have been left frustrated by technical difficulties.

Two people the Star spoke with, one of whom ended up not voting Thursday morning, encountered problems with electronic voting devices in Toronto Centre and Etobicoke.



GTA voters are reporting delays with the new voting machines at polling stations.



“It strikes me as having implemented what I think is a new system they certainly weren’t prepared (for),” said Tom Zverina, an Etobicoke-Lakeshore resident. “There was no backup station and the people manning the station had no idea what to do and there was a technical problem.”




Zverina said he will return to the polling station tonight, but knows of at least one person who lost their chance to vote. “My neighbour was quite upset because she was about to get on a flight, so coming back wasn’t an option for her and her right to vote has been taken away,” he said.



Elections Ontario said “99.57” per cent of electronic poll systems are working as they should across the province, said spokesperson Cara Des Granges in a written statement.

“The few voting locations that are experiencing technical issues are being addressed if they have not already been rectified,” said Des Granges, adding that if issues arise, staff working the polls will revert to process electors’ paper ballots.

“This includes using a paper list of electors, where the poll official will manually strike-off the elector who has voted and will manually update a paper copy to identify the strike-offs. All staff are trained on this contingency process,” she said.

Des Granges did not specify which locations are having problems with electronic voting.



The province has implemented for the first time this year “e-Poll books” and “vote tabulators,” according to Elections Ontario’s website. The former replaces paper-based voter lists, scanning barcodes on voter cards, and returning entries; tabulators electronically process ballots, generating results when polls close at 9 p.m.

Jennifer Lee and Cody Brouwers cast their ballots together at a YWCA on Elm St. Lee, who voted for this first time since becoming a Canadian citizen in 2016, called the electronic voting system “seamless” and “foolproof.”

“I was expecting to see a lineup, but there was none at all, no waiting, and the instructions were really clear,” she said.

Brouwers, however, said he could foresee the voting system going awry with swarms of people. He said it took a staff member between 10 and 15 seconds to feed a ballot through the machine for a voter in front of him. If there had been a long line, Brouwers said it might have been different for him and Lee.

“It’s a given, right, especially at rush hour,” he said. “Why can’t we have election day be three days?”

Lee, who’s from South Korea, said that country’s workers are entitled to take the day off to vote. “It actually increases voting turnout, because people have no excuse (to not vote), she said.

Jen Stewart, who attempted to cast her ballot Thursday morning in Toronto Centre, said she waited for 30 minutes in a line of dozens of people. She said she was informed of a malfunction with the electronic scanner and that she could leave her ballot behind, which would be processed at a later time once the issue was fixed.


Some facts about the Ontario election:


“I did not have to go to work, but I had a doctor’s appointment,” Stewart said, adding that she ended up leaving her ballot. She called this experience “off-putting,” especially because she was provided with no assurances that her vote, once processed, would be confirmed.

“Will it make it into the computer?” Stewart said. “(Staff) said once the computer was up and running again they would be processed. That’s what they told us.”


Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne casts her ballot at 1000 Mount Pleasant Ave in Toronto.

Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne casts her ballot at 1000 Mount Pleasant Ave in Toronto. (Rene Johnston/Toronto Star L)


Stewart said this election is important to her as she pays $2,000 every month for child care, and she wants to have another child, eventually.

“There’s a lot of important issues on the line that will affect a lot of people,” Stewart said. “You want people to vote, especially young people.”

Laura Dallal, supervisor of the polling station at College Francais, where Stewart voted, confirmed the system was down for about 25 minutes when polls opened Thursday morning.

Within “a minute” of informing people they could leave their ballots, the issue was remedied. “Most of them just left their ballots,” Dallal said.

The station, set up in the high school’s gym, was rather quiet around noon. A few voters trickled in, casting ballots quickly. It was far busier in the morning, Dallal said.

“It’s been very smooth. There was that one glitch, which was fixed at 9:25 a.m.,” she said

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/06/07/polls-open-across-ontario-seismic-political-shift-predicted-for-the-province.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( ekos has released a detailed seat projection which has the pc's winning a majority and ndp winning 45 seats , liberals only 5 and not even enough for official party status , although they admit Brampton and Scarborough ridings were the hardest to predict and worth 11 seats in total which could shift the numbers a bit either way )



EKOS Seat Projection


Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – June 7, 2018] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last federal election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat-by-seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. In our 2015 forecast, we got more seats correct than any publicly available projection model or prediction, and we are hoping to replicate that again for this election. However, predicting elections is often a fool’s game and if polling is wildly off, we will be too.

This election brings forth a whole new dynamic to doing seat predictions, as we haven’t seen the NDP this competitive in Ontario since 1990, and we haven’t seen the Liberals polling this low since the 1920s. All this to say, some of our predictions below are not done with the greatest amount of confidence, but we think our experience in this field will at least get us in the ball park of the actual results.

After crunching the numbers, it looks clear that the Progressive Conservatives will win a majority government. They have a narrow lead in the popular vote and, thanks to a beneficial vote distribution, will in all likelihood win a large majority of the seats.

Our numbers show the Tory vote is strong in the rural parts of Ontario and in the seat-rich 905 region, where Liberal and NDP vote splits will allow the PCs to win many seats with just 40-50 per cent of the vote. Much of the NDP vote looks to be inefficient, as they will get 20-30 per cent of the vote in many of the ridings, losing most of them.

Much of the NDP vote will also be concentrated in urban areas across the province and in most of Northern Ontario, areas where the Tories will receive very few votes.

For the Liberals, it is likely that their vote share will be the lowest since the 1920s, and perhaps the lowest ever. Their seat share may also be their lowest ever, and they are at risk of losing official seat status at Queen’s Park. Our prediction has them winning five seats but, in reality, they could win a few more than that. It is hard to predict which Liberal incumbents have enough personal popularity to fend off their PC and NDP opponents. There may be a few surprises in this department on election night.

In making this prediction, the hardest seats to predict were mostly concentrated in two regions: Brampton and Scarborough, areas with five and six seats, respectively. Both suburbs have a high visible minority population that may be attracted to Ford’s brand of populism or the NDP’s brand of social democracy. Both regions are usually swept by the Liberals (which has traditionally made predictions there quite easy)

but, unless we are missing something, this will clearly not be the case this time. Scarborough is a notorious swing area and backed Ford in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election. However, there is evidence that both the NDP and Liberals are competitive there.

In Brampton, which has a high South Asian population, it is possible that the coattails of federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will help sweep the party across the city. However, our numbers show a close race between the PCs and the NDP there.

An important caveat for both regions is that the response rate among these would-be voters tends to be lower than the general population, so picking up on how they will vote will be very tricky.

Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:


PC - 73

NDP - 45

LIBERAL- 5

GREEN - 1

OTHER - 0





http://www.ekospolitics.com/in.....jection-2/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( wynne has scheduled an event at queens park for 2 pm tomorrow when she plans to visit the LG , assuming this will be her final news conference as premier if the polls are correct , truly stunning to an incumbent premier admit before the votes are even counted they are going to lose )



Alan Carter‏Verified account @ACarterglobal · 11m11 minutes ago


Even after votes are counted tonight, @Kathleen_Wynne remains Premier until she goes to see LG. Hence her itinerary showing this for Friday: #onpoli



( and according to reporters , Wynne has also chosen a " small venue " for the liberal election night event , no doubt expecting a small crowd and little good news to come once the votes are counted )


Lisa Hepfner‏ @LisaHepfnerCHCH · 1m1 minute ago


Pretty small venue for @Kathleen_Wynne party tonight. I’ll be here reporting the action for @CHCHNews. Expecting live interview with @Deb_Matthews 6pm stay tuned!
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I haven't been a fan of Frank Graves the man,
I have to at least respect the riding by riding predictions.

Not a lot of pollsters do it (and with good reason) but he has and some of the predictions are pretty damn bold so good on him.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Results as of midnight ... cbc reports that the PCs have 76, the NDP 39, and the Liberals only 7. The Green elected a member as well.

The predictions all seriously underestimated the number of seats the PCs would take, and overestimated the NDP results. The polls were wrong by as much as 12 seats! That means they thought the NDP would get a third again as many seats as they got!

Personally, I think the NDP surge was much more modest than reported, and was simply the left-leaning Liberal supporters changing their minds and switching to the NDP. The media tried to start a stampede but it didn't work.

Congratulations to Doug Ford, and may he keep it simple and focused.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote














GTA largely coloured blue on election night


Bryan Passifiume


Published:
June 8, 2018


Updated:
June 8, 2018 12:03 AM EDT


Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ›
News ›
Ontario ›



Premier-elect Doug Ford gets a hug from former Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion. (THE CANADIAN PRESS)



It was a night of upsets in numerous Liberal strongholds, as Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative painted much of the GTA Tory blue.

Managing to win only two Toronto-area ridings in the 2014 Ontario election, the PCs took most ridings around Toronto while the NDP dominated the core — taking every downtown riding from Parkdale to Scarborough Southwest.

PC candidate Gila Martow easily held Thornhill with over 13,000 votes, while Lorne Coe likewise kept Whitby Tory blue.



In Ajax, star PC candidate Rod Phillips took Ajax by a margin of a little under 4,000 votes, with the NDP’s Monique Hughes landing in second place and incumbent Liberal MPP Joe Dickson finishing third.

Mississauga was completely swept by the Tories, with all six of the city’s ridings won by the Progressive Conservatives.

In 2014, the entire city was won by Liberals.



Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford with his family on stage after addressing his supporters at the Toronto Congress Centre on Thursday June 7, 2018. (Jack Boland/Toronto Sun)

Seen by many pundits as this election’s key battleground, three of Brampton’s five ridings were claimed by the NDP at press time, with the PCs securing the balance.

Brampton North was won by Weather Network personality Kevin Yarde of the NDP, who narrowly won over immigration consultant Ripudaman Dhillon of the PCs.



Gurratan Singh, brother of federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, was declared the winner in Brampton East.

One of the tightest races in the province, Brampton Centre was narrowly won by NDP Sarah Singh by only 89 votes over PC Harjit Jaswal.

A similarly-close race was fought in Brampton West, with PC Amarjot Sandhu squeaking ahead of NDP Jagroop Singh by a little under 500 ballots.

Brampton South was claimed by Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria.


PC Premier Doug Ford’s supporters celebrate his victory at the Toron to Congress Centre in Etobiocke. (Jack Boland, Toronto Sun)

The Liberals only managed to win three Toronto-area ridings.

Only 81 votes separated Liberal Mitzie Hunter and PC Roshan Nallaratnam in a close contest in Scarborough-Guildwood.

Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne won a narrow victory in Don Valley West over PC Jon Kieran, while Liberal cabinet minister Michael Coteau held onto Don Valley East over Toronto City Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong, running under the PC banner.



Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford comes on stage to address his supporters at the Toronto Congress Centre on Friday June 8, 2018. (Jack Boland/Toronto Sun) Jack Boland / Jack Boland/Toronto Sun

Other members of Wynne’s cabinet weren’t so lucky.

Minister of Economic Development Steven Del Duca was voted out of his Vaughan-Woodbridge riding, which was easily won by PC newcomer Michael Tibollo.

As well, treasury board president Eleanor McMahon fell to Tory Jane McKenna in Burlington. Finance Minister Charles Sousa lost his riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore to PC Rudy Cuzzetto.

PC leadership candidate Christine Elliott enjoyed an enormous victory in Newmarket-Aurora, relegating Environment Minister Chris Ballard to a third-place finish behind Melissa Williams of the NDP.


http://torontosun.com/news/pro.....tion-night
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Results as of midnight ... cbc reports that the PCs have 76, the NDP 39, and the Liberals only 7. The Green elected a member as well.

The predictions all seriously underestimated the number of seats the PCs would take, and overestimated the NDP results. The polls were wrong by as much as 12 seats! That means they thought the NDP would get a third again as many seats as they got!

Personally, I think the NDP surge was much more modest than reported, and was simply the left-leaning Liberal supporters changing their minds and switching to the NDP. The media tried to start a stampede but it didn't work.

Congratulations to Doug Ford, and may he keep it simple and focused.



I had personally though the ndp would be closer to 40 seats and lose some of the closer races once it became clear the pc's had regained a lead


what's interesting is the big disappointment for the ndp was south western Ontario , Horwath visited some of those ridings 2 or 3 times ( Sarnia Lambton as an example ) but pc's actually did a lot better than 2014 in those ridings , ndp held the seats they already had there but only gained 2 ( London North Centre and Kitchener Centre )


although the ndp is likely thrilled with the Toronto results , they swept the downtown core , won liberal seats they never dreamed of winning like ( Toronto centre and Toronto St Pauls ) when they had the ndp nomination meeting in St pauls it was a non event and no one though the person being nominated would be mpp after June 7th but the ndp won that riding
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
While I haven't been a fan of Frank Graves the man,
I have to at least respect the riding by riding predictions.

Not a lot of pollsters do it (and with good reason) but he has and some of the predictions are pretty damn bold so good on him.




the ekos predictions were pretty close although he got some wrong

predicted Orleans as pc but it stayed liberal ,
Peterborough as ndp but it went pc ,
Toronto St Pauls as liberal but now ndp ,
Scarborough Guildwood pc but stayed liberal ,
Durham as ndp but went pc ,
Brampton North pc but went ndp
Kitchener Conestoga and Kitchener South Hespeler as ndp both went pc ,
Brantford as ndp but went pc ,
Cambridge as ndp but went pc ,
thunder bay superior north as ndp but stayed liberal

but still not bad to only get 11 wrong out of 124 ridings , that's a pretty high % accuracy for such predictions and he admitted Brampton / Scarborough areas were very hard to predict
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

looking thru the pc results , one thing that stands out this election when compared to 1995 when there was a similar result , is the pc caucus is no longer an old boys club of older white men


looking thru the pc candidates who got elected there is 20 new female pc mpp's elected , some got elected in pc strongholds ( like Jill Dunlop in Simcoe North )

but others won seats the pc's normally don't win like ( Daisy Wai in Richmond Hill and Amanda Simard in Glengary Prescott Russell ) a riding that has been liberal forever , Robin Martin also pulled off a surprise upset in Eglinton Lawrence against popular liberal mpp Mike Colle

there is also a number of ethnic mpp's such as south asia , Asian that got elected in the GTA maybe 14 or so in total , some of these ridings have not been pc in years . like Scarborough Rogue Park where Vijay Thanigasalam won for the pc's


they also won all of Mississauga , Deepak Anand , Nina Tangri ( finally got elected ) and Kaleed Rasheed all won for the pc's in ridings that had been liberal since 2003


there is also a few harper era mp's who are now mpp's ( Parm Gill - Milton , Paul Calandra - Markham Stouffville , Greg Rickford - Kenora Rainy River and Daryl Kramp Hasting Lennox and Addington ) I would imagine Gill and Rickford are both headed into cabinet


also Mike Harris Jr got elected sure to drive the liberals and ndp crazy
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For all the calls from the NDP and Liberals to drive turn out and "Stop" Doug Ford,

This was the highest voter turn out for a Provincial Election since 1999, and could be the highest since 1995 when all the ballots and polls are official.

This wasn't a Rae in 1990 or Wynne in 2014 situation where they fell into a majority with the under 40% situation with 37.6% and 38.6% of the popular vote where Ford had 40.59% of the popular vote.

While I am sure this will cause the usual clamor for a change to the electoral system which often follows Liberal/NDP losses and while I do look forward to hearing about the 59% majority, Ford won this election with the usual measure and yard sticks that most majorities follow.

In terms of the Liberal loss;
I really expected it to be more satisfying and while I enjoyed the run, watching Kathleen Wynne's concession speech turned the mood to one that was more tragic.

She listed off a greatest hits album of policy which ultimately led the party to this historic defeat with an almost pride, there was no regret and there was no apology.

Never have a seen a leader so disconnected with the electorate in the face of such an overwhelming rejection.


Last edited by cosmostein on Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
looking thru the pc results , one thing that stands out this election when compared to 1995 when there was a similar result , is the pc caucus is no longer an old boys club of older white men

looking thru the pc candidates who got elected there is 20 new female pc mpp's elected , some got elected in pc strongholds ( like Jill Dunlop in Simcoe North )


The Liberals had 16 Women Elected in 2014;
The PCs had 23 elected last night.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Premier-elect Ford names transition team



By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief
Rob FergusonQueen's Park Bureau
Kristin RushowyQueen's Park Bureau

Fri., June 8, 2018


Premier-designate Doug Ford has “hit the ground running” the morning after leading the Progressive Conservatives to victory in the Ontario election.

Ford announced Friday that his campaign chair Dean French, a business executive, would be his chief of staff and that veteran political consultant Chris Froggatt would chair the transition team as the Tories take power.



Premier-designate Doug Ford says the Progressive Conservatives “intend to act fast” after winning Thursday night’s provincial election.


“Now, the real work begins,” the incoming premier told reporters in Etobicoke after leading the Tories back from the political wilderness following almost 15 years in opposition.

“I figure the transition will take 21 days,” said Ford, who added that he must select a cabinet, which will be difficult, because he has so many “all-stars” from which to choose.

Also on Ford’s transition team are former federal and provincial cabinet minister John Baird; former Tory president Rueben Devlin, a hospital CEO; Simone Daniels, who works at Ford’s firm, Deco Labels and Tags, and PC stalwart Mike Coates.


“We intend to act fast,” said Ford, who did not say when the Legislature would resume.

“The people out there have given me a very clear mandate to govern,” said Ford, whose party holds 76 seats in the 124-seat House compared to 40 for the NDP, seven for the Liberals, and one for the Greens.


Asked if if the new government would considering lowering the threshold of official party status in the House from eight to seven to allow the Liberals to receive research funding and be allowed to ask daily questions in the Legislature, Ford was non-committal.

“We’ll be able to discuss that in the days and weeks to come,” he said, adding he had spoken to Premier Kathleen Wynne.

“Ms. Wynne was gracious and has promised her team’s support …on the transition.”



Opinion | Martin Regg Cohn: ‘A government for the people’ — but will Doug Ford govern for all Ontarians?

Ontario election winners: Mike Schreiner, Green party leader; Christine Elliott; Caroline Mulroney; Mike Harris Jr.; Gurratan Singh

“We’re repealing it,” he said.

Wynne, who will meet with reporters on Friday afternoon, stepped down as Liberal leader after Thursday night’s drubbing, which ended a 15-year Grit dynasty at Queen’s Park.

Party president Brian Johns said Friday that “we have heard Ontarians clearly.”

“Our focus now is on renewal of our party, which can only be achieved by actively reconnecting with Ontarians across the province. We look forward to continuing to be a strong voice for the people of Ontario in opposition,” said Johns.

“As a party, we are grateful to Kathleen Wynne and (former premier) Dalton McGuinty for their leadership, vision, and commitment.”

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, who will hold a press conference later Friday, will serve as leader of the official opposition.


https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/06/08/premier-elect-ford-names-transition-team.html
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Ontario provincial election on June 7th

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