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RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Generally speaking if the NDP were to form an opposition to the PCs in theory it would likely be on the back of an NDP breakthrough in areas they historically do better than their Provincial overall number;

Traditional "Old" Toronto, Northern Ontario, and Southwestern Ontario;
And in those regions aside from Kiiwetinoong and St. Paul they have candidates in place in ridings they have a chance.

If you are a potential NDP candidate in lets say Oakville (for the sake of argument) you aren't going to want to spend six months of your life on the campaign trail to secure less than 10% of the vote.

Kudos to the PCs for going hard and nominating candidates early and in ridings they won't win but its not the really the norm for the NDP to do the same.




the ndp announced there platform today , rather early and no real surprises , also promising major spending and small deficits , typical ndp priorities


true the ridings without ndp candidates are mostly non target ridings that they normally do poorly in

although there is still some target ndp ridings without candidates in northern Ontario , Sault Ste Marie has a nomination meeting scheduled for late april and Kenora Rainy river is still without a candidate , one perspective candidate was disqualified last week for social media posts

south western Ontario is mostly nominated with exception of Guelph and some rural ridings held by pc's

eastern Ontario for some reason the ndp have never done well there , believe the only seat they've even won in recent memory was Ottawa centre in the 80's and 90's , although they aren't missing that many candidates here , some needed in suburban Ottawa


another factor to consider is we've had 2 and half quiet years in Ontario , last province wide election was federally in fall of 2015 , perhaps people aren't thinking about politics as much as we though and over last 2 years some of there candidates could of moved on or went dormant ,
for some reason the ndp weren't ready for this election like the pc's and liberals were
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Except that this election is different. It's as much an execution as an election.

There is, as Cosmo pointed out, a niche for them, as the 'responsible' socialists. I assume, given the leftward balance of the Wynne government, that some of those who are appalled by incompetence rather than the direction of government would go back to their more natural home.

I am wondering if the NDP is watching to see what the civil service unions want to do? With all this jockeying going on, they don't even seem to be vying for the honour of the most devastating critique of Wynne.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Except that this election is different. It's as much an execution as an election.

There is, as Cosmo pointed out, a niche for them, as the 'responsible' socialists. I assume, given the leftward balance of the Wynne government, that some of those who are appalled by incompetence rather than the direction of government would go back to their more natural home.

I am wondering if the NDP is watching to see what the civil service unions want to do? With all this jockeying going on, they don't even seem to be vying for the honour of the most devastating critique of Wynne.



clearly there would of been no strategic value for the ndp to nominate candidates in non target ridings 5 or 6 months before the election but the election is not that far away , were talking a couple weeks before its called , pc candidates already have campaign offices open and the liberals are running tv ads

now seems like the time you'd want to have most of your candidates nominated by , to have so many open nominations still leads some to wonder how serious this ndp campaign really is ?


the pc's were oddly unprepared for the 2014 election but this year its the ndp that seem to not be ready even though they've known for some time it was coming
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Except that this election is different. It's as much an execution as an election.

There is, as Cosmo pointed out, a niche for them, as the 'responsible' socialists. I assume, given the leftward balance of the Wynne government, that some of those who are appalled by incompetence rather than the direction of government would go back to their more natural home.

I am wondering if the NDP is watching to see what the civil service unions want to do? With all this jockeying going on, they don't even seem to be vying for the honour of the most devastating critique of Wynne.


The NDP appears to be structuring an opposition platform;
That's not a criticism as much as it is just commentary, they appear resided to the fact that this may not be the election where they breakthrough in areas that they have traditionally done poorly.

I would imagine the ridings they are targeting are:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Kiiwetinoong, Mushkegowuk—James Bay, Sudbury, London North Centre, Beaches—East York, Spadina—Fort York, Davenport, Scarborough Southwest, maybe Ottawa Centre?

That gets them 11 seats they didn't have before;
But a far cry from the 45 they need to form a majority government.

Its not a huge list but its a winnable list that makes them the second largest party assuming the polling trends hold true.

Their platform as it sits isn't going to draw the masses in from the 905s as such I think they are going to run a targeted campaign that states the Liberals can't be trusted and "Look what happened last time the PCs were in power...."
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( ford is now calling for an outside audit of the Ontario finances , think this is necessary to try and figure out whats going on there its a mess )


Doug Ford Will Call in an Outside Audit of Kathleen Wynne’s Reckless Spending

Published on April 17, 2018

Doug Ford today shared more details about his plan For the People by announcing that he will call in an outside audit of Kathleen Wynne’s reckless spending on his first day of office.

“We’re going to restore responsibility, accountability, and trust in government,” said Ford. “For me, nothing is more important than straight talk and keeping your word."

Ford made his commitment while visiting Brockville, and meeting with locals.

“I want you to have the whole truth about what’s going on,” said Ford, “because Kathleen Wynne is not telling you the whole story.”

Since coming into office, the Liberals have been routinely found in violation of ethical standards that culminated in the recent conviction and jailing of former Liberal Chief of Staff David Livingston. Ontario’s Auditor General has routinely cited the Liberals for abusing taxpayer dollars in a reckless and inappropriate manner.

“If Kathleen Wynne tried to pull these kinds of shady tricks in private life, then there would be a few more Liberals joining David Livingstone in jail,” said Ford. “Ontario deserves answers about how big Kathleen Wynne’s mess really is.”

An Outside Audit would probe the entirety of Kathleen Wynne’s fiscal mess and ‘follow the money’ to see how your tax dollars are really being spent. Ford also committed to making the results of the outside audit available to the public in its entirety.

“It’s time to find out who is getting rich off your tax dollars and how big Kathleen Wynne’s deficit really is,” said Ford.

In his remarks Ford also committed to providing more resources to support Ontario’s Auditor General. Kathleen Wynne recently changed election laws to prohibit the Auditor General from blocking the Liberals from spending taxpayer money on partisan ads, and has spent more than $185,000 of taxpayer dollars on partisan campaign events in the last few weeks alone.

“The people of Ontario have been lied to and taken advantage of for far too long,” concluded Ford. “We’re the only ones who will respect the people. We’re the only ones who will always be for the people.”

https://www.ontariopc.ca/doug_ford_will_call_in_an_outside_audit_of_kathleen_wynne_s_reckless_spending
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:
Except that this election is different. It's as much an execution as an election.

There is, as Cosmo pointed out, a niche for them, as the 'responsible' socialists. I assume, given the leftward balance of the Wynne government, that some of those who are appalled by incompetence rather than the direction of government would go back to their more natural home.

I am wondering if the NDP is watching to see what the civil service unions want to do? With all this jockeying going on, they don't even seem to be vying for the honour of the most devastating critique of Wynne.


The NDP appears to be structuring an opposition platform;
That's not a criticism as much as it is just commentary, they appear resided to the fact that this may not be the election where they breakthrough in areas that they have traditionally done poorly.

I would imagine the ridings they are targeting are:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Kiiwetinoong, Mushkegowuk—James Bay, Sudbury, London North Centre, Beaches—East York, Spadina—Fort York, Davenport, Scarborough Southwest, maybe Ottawa Centre?

That gets them 11 seats they didn't have before;
But a far cry from the 45 they need to form a majority government.

Its not a huge list but its a winnable list that makes them the second largest party assuming the polling trends hold true.

Their platform as it sits isn't going to draw the masses in from the 905s as such I think they are going to run a targeted campaign that states the Liberals can't be trusted and "Look what happened last time the PCs were in power...."



keep in mind the ndp also has to try and hold 4 open ridings ( Niagara Centre , Brampton East , Parkdale High Park and Kenora Rainy River )

Niagara centre and parkdale high park might be easiest of the 4 to keep , Kenora would normally be easy but former mp greg rickford is running for pc's so it might already be gone

and Brampton east will be tough to keep even with Singh's brother the candidate , ndp wins are so rare in Peel


but I agree the ndp does not seem to be targeting ridings they normally do poorly in and instead focusing on seats they historically have held or done well in recently ( 2nd or close 3rds )

if they aren't able to gain seats this election considering wynne's extreme unpopularity they really need to re-evaluate things
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:


keep in mind the ndp also has to try and hold 4 open ridings ( Niagara Centre , Brampton East , Parkdale High Park and Kenora Rainy River )

Niagara centre and parkdale high park might be easiest of the 4 to keep , Kenora would normally be easy but former mp greg rickford is running for pc's so it might already be gone

and Brampton east will be tough to keep even with Singh's brother the candidate , ndp wins are so rare in Peel

but I agree the ndp does not seem to be targeting ridings they normally do poorly in and instead focusing on seats they historically have held or done well in recently ( 2nd or close 3rds )

if they aren't able to gain seats this election considering wynne's extreme unpopularity they really need to re-evaluate things


That is a good point; they have some challenges retaining.
Kenora and Brampton East will prove huge challenges to retain, whereas Parkdale and the old Welland riding should prove easier to retain.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ford would order outside audit of Wynne's books

Antonella Artuso


Published:
April 17, 2018


Updated:
April 17, 2018 7:53 PM EDT


Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ›
News ›
Ontario ›

An Ontario Progressive Conservative government would bring in an outside auditor to determine if the Kathleen Wynne Liberals were cooking the books, Tory leader Doug Ford says.

During a swing through eastern Ontario Tuesday, Ford said the Liberals have been found in violation of ethical standards, noting the recent conviction and jail sentence handed to former chief of staff David Livingston for destroying public records.

“If Kathleen Wynne tried to pull these kinds of shady tricks in private life, then there would be a few more Liberals joining David (Livingston) in jail,” Ford said. “Ontario deserves answers about how big Kathleen Wynne’s mess really is.”

Livingston is appealing his conviction and sentence which flow out of the $1-billion cancelled gas plants scandal.

Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk has also found numerous examples of wasteful spending by the provincial Liberals, Ford said.

“It’s time to find out who is getting rich off your tax dollars and how big Kathleen Wynne’s deficit really is,” Ford said in a statement.

Ontario has two fiscal watchdogs that provide oversight of government spending – the auditor general and the financial accountability officer.

Lysyk has criticized the Wynne government’s accounting methods, and it’s not been publicly revealed whether she will sign off on the pre-election books.

When asked about the cost, the Ford campaign said the current government spends millions of dollars on outside consultants and it intends to spend less.

The intention is to award the contract through an open and transparent tender process, the campaign said.

Andrea Ernesaks, a spokesman for Premier Kathleen Wynne, said Ford brought in outside auditors during his time on Toronto council at a cost of millions of dollars.

“After the audit, Mr. Ford was quick to start identifying areas to cut, using the external consultants as political cover,” she said. “Doug Ford refuses to provide a costed platform, and he won’t tell Ontarians what his plans are or where the cuts will be made. Now we know that he’s going to hire a firm to find 4% in across-the-board cuts.”

Former mayor Rob Ford, with brother Doug, campaigned on a promise to end the “Gravy Train” at City Hall, and commissioned a core service review that reported in 2011 on possible efficiencies and savings.


http://torontosun.com/news/pro.....nnes-books
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:


keep in mind the ndp also has to try and hold 4 open ridings ( Niagara Centre , Brampton East , Parkdale High Park and Kenora Rainy River )

Niagara centre and parkdale high park might be easiest of the 4 to keep , Kenora would normally be easy but former mp greg rickford is running for pc's so it might already be gone

and Brampton east will be tough to keep even with Singh's brother the candidate , ndp wins are so rare in Peel

but I agree the ndp does not seem to be targeting ridings they normally do poorly in and instead focusing on seats they historically have held or done well in recently ( 2nd or close 3rds )

if they aren't able to gain seats this election considering wynne's extreme unpopularity they really need to re-evaluate things


That is a good point; they have some challenges retaining.
Kenora and Brampton East will prove huge challenges to retain, whereas Parkdale and the old Welland riding should prove easier to retain.



back to the ndp , considering the pc's just held a large nomination meeting in Hamilton east Stoney Creek last night if your the ndp maybe its time to get nervous about this election ,that is a riding the pc's haven't held for years yet a huge crowd came out for a contested nomination something the riding hadn't had since the 90's


although the ndp has nominated some more candidates this week in various ridings around the province , but in 905 only at 18 nominated , in Thornhill they plan to run a 4th year York university student , but obviously not a riding they have any chance in


some other ridings I'm noticing online aren't holding meetings until may 5th , Haliburton Kawartha lake and Orleans are posted as may 5th , meaning some of these open nominations might not be settled until early or mid may , so the candidates won't have any time to work the riding before the election is called
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the PCs are truly in play in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek,
Then I would expect a massive majority.

I just don't see Paul Miller losing;
If the PCs finish a strong second its still a great sign.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
If the PCs are truly in play in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek,
Then I would expect a massive majority.

I just don't see Paul Miller losing;
If the PCs finish a strong second its still a great sign.



there is clearly increased interest in pc nominations even in ridings that typically don't vote pc ( perhaps a sign the voters are getting increasingly tired of this government ) ,

Stoney Creek used to have its own riding and was pc as recently as 1999 election although Hamilton east is a ndp / liberal stronghold

the new riding is a difficult one for the pc's due to the urban Hamilton polls that are likely to go ndp
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( wynne is also trying to build closer relations with the federal liberals and will deliver remarks at there convention in Halifax NS , although I'd wonder why the liberals even want her speaking ? most unpopular and disliked politician in Canada ? as a keynote speaker at a convention about the future ? )



Meagan Fitzpatrick‏Verified account @fitzpatrick_m


Follow Follow @fitzpatrick_m


Just out from the Ontario Liberal Party: Premier Wynne will deliver remarks at the federal Liberal convention in Halifax tomorrow night
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( more devastating news for wynne , a new forum poll is predicting a near total liberal wipeout , might even lose official party status its that bad , should of switched leaders when they had the chance )


Liberal Budget Gains Disappear

April 20, 2018 @ 8:00 AM | Filed under: Ontario


Liberal Budget Gains Disappear

Progressive Conservative Majority, Liberals lose party status if an election held today

Toronto, April 19th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1126 Ontario voters, the gap between the Progressive Conservatives and their provincial challengers has widened once again, with almost half (46%) saying they would vote PC if an election were held today.

One-quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, while one-fifth (21%) say they would support the Liberals.

Few (4%) would support the Green Party or another party (2%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the PCs include those aged 45-54 (52%) or 55-64 (50%), male (59%), and anyone earning more than $40,000 including: $40,000-$60,000 (47%), $60,000-$80,000 (47%), $80,000-$100,000 (49%), and the most wealthy (50%), parents (51%), the least educated (56%), living in Eastern (50%) or Southwestern Ontario (48%), or the 905 (49%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (33%), females (33%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (29%) or $40,000-$60,000 (32%), with a college/university degree (30%) or post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto (30%), Southwestern Ontario (28%), or Northern Ontario (29%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (24%) or 65+ (27%), female (26%), the least wealthy (29%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living in Toronto (28%).


PC Super-majority on the Horizon

If an election were held today, we project a PC majority government with 94 seats.

The NDP would serve as official opposition with 23 seats, while the Liberals would secure only 7 seats, one too few for party status in Ontario’s legislature.

More than half of Ontarians think the PCs will win



More than half (54%) say that the PCs will win the provincial election. One-fifth (19%), about the same as current Liberal support, say it will be the Liberals. 1 in 10 (10%) say it will be the NDP.

A hopeful few (1%) say it will be the Green Party, while one-sixth (16%) don’t know who will win.

Almost 9 in 10 (87%) of PC supporters think the PCs will win.

Contrast that support with (54%) of Liberal supporters who think the Liberals will win, and the quarter (27%) of NDP supporters who say they NDP will win.

More than half of Ontarians think the PCs will win



More than half (54%) say that the PCs will win the provincial election. One-fifth (19%), about the same as current Liberal support, say it will be the Liberals. 1 in 10 (10%) say it will be the NDP.

A hopeful few (1%) say it will be the Green Party, while one-sixth (16%) don’t know who will win.

Almost 9 in 10 (87%) of PC supporters think the PCs will win.

Contrast that support with (54%) of Liberal supporters who think the Liberals will win, and the quarter (27%) of NDP supporters who say they NDP will win.

Ford approval and disapproval even, Wynne still low

Kathleen Wynne see’s approval from one-fifth (18%), and disapproval from three-quarters (73%). Only 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score (Approve-Disapprove) is -54.



Doug Ford’s approval and disapproval are even, with (37%) saying they approve and (40%) saying they disapprove. One-quarter (23%) say they do not know.

Doug Ford’s net favourable score is -3.

Andrea Horwath sees the best net favourable score, with approval of (37%) and disapproval of (32%). A third (31%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath.

Her net favourable score is +5



“The bump in support following the Liberal budget is gone,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The Progressive Conservatives are back where we’ve seen them for the past year, and Doug Ford looks on track to be Premier in a few months. While campaigns matter, and it’s hard to count out an effective campaigner like Kathleen Wynne, the fact that the shine from the Liberals’ billions of dollars of promises has already diminished, must be a blow to their chances.”



Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.


http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....pril-2018/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the poll has a lot of bad news for the liberals , clearly the reason wynne has gone so low and desperate this week , she's been told how bad things are



one of the polls most troubling findings for the liberals might be the 905 numbers


49 pc , 24 ndp , 22 lib , 4 green


considering the liberals dominated the 905 in 2014 , we could be talking about a near total flip from liberal to pc in this region that might leave the liberals with no seats or very few


the liberals are also polling weak in eastern Ontario and that could put some of there Ottawa seats in play that they though might of otherwise been safe but hard to believe they might be trailing the ndp there ?


50 pc , 24 ndp , 19 lib , 5 green


http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....202018.pdf


also noticed online the Laurier political studies page has updated wynne's riding as leaning , meaning they think she only has a lead of maybe 5% and could be in jeopardy of losing


LISPOP‏ @lispop · 20m20 minutes ago

LISPOP's #onpoli seat projection from Apr 17: Wynne's seat of Don Valley W now "leaning" @OntLiberal https://goo.gl/ao2uPx @NEWSTALK1010 @CBCToronto
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It appears the seven ridings they (Forums) have as locked to be OLP are:

Ottawa Centre
Humber River-Black Creek
Toronto-St. Paul
Toronto-Centre
University Rosedale
Thunder Bay - Atikokan
Thunder Bay - Superior North

I am borrowing this assumption as the LISPOP Map had seven safe Liberal Ridings as of this morning.

With that in mind;
Of those seven ridings the current MPPs in the House are:

Yasir Naqvi
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Bill Mauro
Michael Gravelle
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Wynne to open the pre election spending floodgates ?

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