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RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:36 pm    Post subject: Ontario pc membership passes 200,000 Reply with quote

( the number of Ontario pc members has hit record numbers and there has been huge increases in many ridings in the Toronto area , even passed numbers reached when party last in power in 2003 )



Ontario PC membership jumps 1500% in run-up to provincial election



Antonella Artuso



Published:
January 12, 2018


Updated:
January 12, 2018 4:21 PM EST


Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ›
News ›
Ontario ›

​​

One-on-one with Patrick Brown, MPP and the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party in Toronto, Ont. on Monday December 18, 2017. Dave Abel/Toronto Sun/Postmedia NetworkDave Abel / Dave Abel/Toronto Sun



The Ontario Progressive Conservative party has massively increased its membership in the run-up to the June provincial election campaign.

While the governing Liberals currently claim 18,000 dyed-in-the wool members, the PCs have topped 200,000 – a record number of supporters, Leader Patrick Brown says.

“Our Party has the most members today than we’ve ever had before,” Brown said in an email Friday. “The Ontario PCs are diverse, modern, inclusive and we are energized to work hard in every riding across the province in the lead-up to June 7.”

The party’s membership previously reached a high-level mark of 100,000 during the hand off between former premiers Mike Harris and Ernie Eves, Tories say.

However, at the end of the last provincial campaign in 2014, following four consecutive campaign losses, the PC membership had dropped to about 12,000 card-carrying members.


In the three years since then, Brown grew membership support by more than 1,500%.


Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown answers student questions about Progressive Conservative plans dealing with accountability legislation at Western University in London, Ont. Photograph taken on Thursday November 30, 2017. Mike Hensen/The London Free Press/Postmedia Network

Carleton University Professor William Cross said people typically join Canadian political parties around contested candidate nominations because you have to be a member to vote.

“It does seem like a robust, high number to me,” Cross said. “And if it a big increase, it does show signs of life for the party at the grassroots… It shows that there might be something going on – some vibrancy at the local level where there’s people running for nominations that are signing up a lot of folks.”

When high profile, strong candidates contest a nomination, they can bring in a significant number of new memberships, he said.

In the run up to the 2015 federal election, membership in the federal Liberal Party spiked under Justin Trudeau who went on to win a majority government, Cross noted.

Trudeau announced in 2014 that the national membership of the Liberal Party of Canada had hit 300,000, up from 60,000 the previous year.

“And why it’s important then is it shows that the local association is active; there are people who think they might have a chance to win in ridings that they currently do not hold,” Cross said.

Political party membership in Canada is usually strongest just before elections, when candidates are being nominated, and also during leadership contests, but can rise and fall dramatically between these types of events, he said.

The federal NDP announced a threefold increase to 124,000 members across the country last year as the party got set to elect a new leader, Jagmeet Singh.

In between elections, party membership often shrinks to the “real die hards” or core organizers, Cross said.

Ontario PC President Rick Dykstra said the Ontario party membership numbers are unheard of in a provincial party, and reflect the work of Brown and the quality of candidates.



Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown speaks to party members at their policy conference at the Toronto Congress Centre. He outlined his party’s promise for next year’s provincial election in Toronto, Ont. on Saturday November 25, 2017. Michael Peake/Toronto Sun/Postmedia Network

All three major political parties, meanwhile, are gearing up for what’s expected to be the most contentious campaign in more than a decade, pitting the Liberal government’s scandal-plagued record against an NDP that’s been crowded on the left by the Liberals and Brown’s more middle of-of-the-road Conservatives. Membership is critical for parties, for everything for fundraising to volunteers.

Numbers released by the Tories show growth in membership in a number of key GTA ridings such as Mississauga East-Cooksville that grew to 6,004 members from 41, and Markham-Thornhill where membership has hit 5,366, up from 56.

Patricia Favre, a spokesperson for the Ontario Liberal Party, said the majority of their memberships are on a yearly cycle, and the party is currently in the process of membership renewal.

“We currently have about 18,000 members, with an additional 23,000 members up for renewal,” Favre said. “Given we are in the process of competitive nomination meetings and the lead up to an election, we expect that number to keep growing.”

The Ontario NDP did not respond to a request for membership numbers.


http://torontosun.com/news/pro.....l-election
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is commendable. Brown has been able to mobilize people and shape his party in a way that has been out of the reach of the political scorpion he faces. He has lots of material to work with. In that sense, he is more fortunate than his federal counterpart. because the process of disenchantment has been going on for two elections in Ontario. At the federal level, a few people are still charmed by Trudeau-the-lesser and his ilk ... put it this way, the cost of his rule hasn't been experienced yet. It's coming, but it hasn't arrived yet.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
This is commendable. Brown has been able to mobilize people and shape his party in a way that has been out of the reach of the political scorpion he faces. He has lots of material to work with. In that sense, he is more fortunate than his federal counterpart. because the process of disenchantment has been going on for two elections in Ontario. At the federal level, a few people are still charmed by Trudeau-the-lesser and his ilk ... put it this way, the cost of his rule hasn't been experienced yet. It's coming, but it hasn't arrived yet.



it seems to be another sign that a wynne defeat is looming , all indicators have been pointing that way , the polls , by elections , party donations , mpp retirements


and having 200,000 plus members means the pc's have a huge pool of possible volunteers and financial donors

campaign offices will be full of people to put up signs and knock on doors , I don't think liberal campaign offices are going to be that busy

most liberal nomination meetings so far have had tiny crowds where candidates are often acclaimed without any challengers
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Full Credit to Patrick Brown.
He took a job not many wanted at the helm of a party that was largely split with infighting and carried a massive $6,100,000 debt after two elections in three years.

Now the party is debt free, it raised over 16m in 2016 before the new rules came into effect and will secure at least around 4m from the per vote subsidies the OLP brought into being before a dollar of 2017 fundraising is factored in, which should be around 3m.

Kudos.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

forum released a new poll on the minimum wage although not a normal poll on provincial voting intentions

although hidden in the poll Voter ballot intention

Voter Ballot Intention % Total Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Other Parties Sample 1022 448 238 187 75 25


so by my math it be - 43 % pc , 23 % liberal , 18 % ndp , 7 % green

that's nearly a 20% lead for the pc's over the liberals and surely devastating news for wynne with an election only months away , and much worse numbers than the cooked up Toronto centric campaign research poll


http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....20wage.pdf
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good catch on the voter intention on the final page of the poll.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Good catch on the voter intention on the final page of the poll.



its weird that forum didn't discuss the overall numbers for Ontario , some of the media like Toronto star are trying to claim things are closer and using the campaign research poll as evidence


but it seems doubtful and polled such a high % from Toronto its not really accurate province wide and we don't know where in Toronto they polled , they could of polled Toronto centre and st pauls to get the 10% liberal lead in the 416


wynne's numbers aren't really much better than Greg Sellingers in 2016 before the Manitoba election and we know how that ended
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( news has broke of a mini cabinet shuffle tomorrow , would seem odd as election a few months away , the new minister will barely have 2 or 3 months in this position until election , speculation is another mpp is retiring and not running in election )



Mike Crawley‏Verified account
@CBCQueensPark


Follow Follow @CBCQueensPark


BREAKING: Mini cabinet shuffle coming tomorrow. Wynne itinerary says she will « participate in a swearing-in ceremony for members of the Executive Council »
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Premier Kathleen Wynne to shuffle cabinet Wednesday


No indication Tuesday evening about how many Liberal MPPs will be involved


Mike Crawley · CBC News · an hour ago


Premier Kathleen Wynne is going to shuffle her cabinet on Wednesday, less than five months before Ontarians go to the polls.


Wynne's itinerary shows a 3 p.m. swearing-in of new members of her cabinet, but there is no indication yet of how many ministers will be shuffled.

Three of Wynne's most senior cabinet members have already indicated they will not run in the election: Advanced Education Minister Deb Matthews, Treasury Board President Liz Sandals and Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid.

They have remained in their cabinet posts since announcing their intentions but could be shuffled out if Wynne wants to raise the profiles of Liberal incumbents in the run-up to the campaign.



There was no indication Tuesday evening from Wynne's officials about how many Liberal MPPs will be involved in the shuffle.

The Legislature is currently on its winter break and is not due to resume sitting until Feb. 20. The government is expected to bring in a budget in the ensuing weeks, and the Legislature will be dissolved no later than May 9, when the campaign period officially begins.

Election Day is June 7


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.4490496
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( wynne is removing 3 retiring minister from her cabinet and bringing in 3 newer mpp's , the choice of Nathalie Des Rosiers an mpp from downtown Ottawa who is an expert on social justice/legal issues as natural resources and forest minister is just purely bizarre , normally this post would go to a northern or rural mpp or at least someone familiar with the file )


Wynne shuffling cabinet to add new blood and replace retiring ministers


Premier Kathleen Wynne is shuffling her cabinet to fill vacancies left by ministers who are not seeking re-election in June, the Star has learned.


Harinder Malhi (Brampton-Springdale), left, Nathalie Des Rosiers (Ottawa-Vanier), and Daiene Vernile (Kitchener-Centre) are headed into cabinet ahead of the June 7 election.



By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Wed., Jan. 17, 2018


Premier Kathleen Wynne is shuffling her cabinet to fill vacancies left by ministers who are not seeking re-election in June, the Star has learned.

With the looming retirement of key ministers Brad Duguid, Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals, Wynne will elevate three promising backbenchers to her executive council on Wednesday as part of a larger shuffle.

In a statement, Wynne said she was “thrilled” to shake up her cabinet and add some new blood.

Headed into cabinet as the Liberals gird for a tight election on June 7 are Harinder Malhi (Brampton-Springdale), Nathalie Des Rosiers (Ottawa-Vanier), and Daiene Vernile (Kitchener-Centre).

“The knowledge and skills they bring to these roles will be crucial as we continue our work to create more fairness and opportunity for the people of Ontario,” the premier said.

“In a changing economy, our plan is about making sure everyone has a fair shot at getting ahead,” she said.

“That’s why it is also important to me that this updated cabinet continues to reflect both the diversity and the geography of our province,” Wynne said.

Being promoted within cabinet are:


•Indira Naidoo-Harris (Halton), who becomes education minister as well as continuing as minister for early years and child care;


•Steven Del Duca (Vaughan), who transfers from transportation to Duguid’s former post at economic development and growth;


•Eleanor McMahon (Burlington), who succeeds Sandals as president of the treasury board after serving as minister of tourism, culture and sport.


•Kathryn McGarry (Cambridge), who was minister of natural resources, moves to transportation.


To replace Matthews — who was also deputy premier, though that largely ceremonial post will not be filled — Mitzie Hunter graduates from education minister to minister of advanced education and skills development.

Hunter (Scarborough-Guildwood) will be responsible for selling the government’s plan that enables students from low- and middle-income families to attend university or college without paying any tuition fees.

That financial aid program, which is helping more than 210,000 Ontario students this year, is a cornerstone of the Liberals’ re-election platform.

Des Rosiers, the Harvard-educated former general counsel to the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and University of Ottawa law school dean who won a November 2016 byelection, replaces McGarry as minister of natural resources and forestry.

Vernile, a former broadcast journalist from CKCO in Kitchener-Waterloo first elected in 2014, succeeds McMahon as minister of tourism, culture and sport.

Malhi, a former Peel District School Board trustee who was also elected in 2014, becomes minister of the status of women, which had been part of Naidoo-Harris’s duties.

Expressing gratitude toward Matthews, Sandals, and Duguid, Wynne said she was “pleased they will all be staying on as MPPs” until the June 7 election.

Community and Social Services Minister Helena Jaczek, who represents Oak Ridges-Markham, assumes Matthews’ responsibilities as chair of cabinet.

Liberal insiders note the changes mean cabinet is getting younger, a little more diverse, and closing in on gender balance – there will now be 13 women, including the premier, and 16 men in the executive council.

Public opinion polls suggest Wynne faces a close election against Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown with NDP Leader Andrea Horwath poised to hold the balance of power in a minority legislature.

All three new cabinet ministers represent ridings the Liberals must hold if they are to be re-elected this spring.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/01/17/wynne-shuffling-cabinet-to-add-new-blood-and-replace-retiring-ministers.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wynne's cabinet shuffle has the smell of desperation , especially when you look thru who got promoted and where there ridings are .

almost all of them are in likely swing ridings ( with exception of the mpp from Ottawa vanier ) that according to forum , the pc's are polling way ahead


all 3 of the liberals mpp's from Halton region are now in high profile cabinet positions , 2 of them are from ridings the liberals normally don't win ( Burlington and Halton/Milton ) it seems highly odd to have so many cabinet ministers from one single area , such a heavy concentration , obviously there sensing the pc's could retake those seats but feel if the mpp's are high profile they might be able to survive somehow

and according to the forum poll it might happen rather easily , as the pc's have big leads with voters who's income is above $60,000 which would be most of the voters in ridings in Halton region
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its an old trick but at this point why not cart out whatever you can?

Burlington was always a tough riding to retain it had been PC since its inception and Jane McKenna (The form MPP) will be running in a rematch.

Halton had been PC in its full form since 1943 and now with it breaking up Naidoo-Harris has a tough battle in the new Milton Riding against former Parliamentary Secretary and MP in Parm Gill.

Cambridge is more of the same, It had been PC since 1995 and McGarry won on her third try in 2011 to win for the OLP.

You need to find a way to make these incumbents seems more politically significant and giving them more visible portfolios to enjoy for the few weeks the this session of Parliament has left before its dissolved prior to the election gives at least an appearance of that.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Its an old trick but at this point why not cart out whatever you can?

Burlington was always a tough riding to retain it had been PC since its inception and Jane McKenna (The form MPP) will be running in a rematch.

Halton had been PC in its full form since 1943 and now with it breaking up Naidoo-Harris has a tough battle in the new Milton Riding against former Parliamentary Secretary and MP in Parm Gill.

Cambridge is more of the same, It had been PC since 1995 and McGarry won on her third try in 2011 to win for the OLP.

You need to find a way to make these incumbents seems more politically significant and giving them more visible portfolios to enjoy for the few weeks the this session of Parliament has left before its dissolved prior to the election gives at least an appearance of that.


well the shuffle generated Wynne some press , a month from now , no one is going to care she shuffled the cabinet and some of these new ministers will barely be visible and unlikely to even make any major announcements before the election


there appears to be a number of ridings the liberals are obsessed with holding even though polls for the ridings show them being in areas highly unlikely to vote liberal

Wynne also visited the city of Barrie yesterday before this announcement , it has to be her 5 or 6 th trip in last couple of years to the city , the liberals don't even have a candidate for the riding she was in ( Barrie Springwater Oro Medonte ) and unlikely to beat Patrick Brown in his own riding but the liberals seem obsessed with the riding regardless

they also seem obsessed with the 2 Halton ridings ( Burlington and Milton ) with endless promotions and such for the 2 liberal mpp's , I can't recall such a cluster of high profile ministers from one single region
other than when the pc's had 3 high profile ministers from Durham ( Flaherty , Oullette and Ecker )
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I too wonder at this move. I don't think she needs "press" ... at least not very much.

I think the public has pretty much made up its mind on this government. They are judging it on the competence issue. As wasteful as they are, and as many little vipers there are feeding off their largesse, it's strange that we haven't seen any bribing and use of off-the-books slush funds.

What she needs is an epic version of the Hudak mistake -- threatening civil service jobs -- or the John Tory blunder, (promising funding for religious schools). In my judgement, it has to be at least as big a blunder as that, and it should be bigger.

Put another way, she has to disqualify Brown for the job, and then she stands a chance. Maybe. But to disqualify him she has to show him to be even less competent than her -- and Brown is being so careful, it's hard to imagine that happening.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( Pat Sorbara , the liberal who had been on trial in Sudbury is now out at liberal headquarters as turmoil grips the campaign )


Pat Sorbara out as co-chair of Ontario Liberals’ 2018 election campaign


By The Canadian Press — Jan 18 2018


TORONTO — Premier Kathleen Wynne says Pat Sorbara will not be the managing co-chair of the Ontario Liberals' 2018 election campaign.

"Pat Sorbara will not be joining the campaign team," Wynne said in a statement Thursday evening. "However, I will continue to count upon her personal friendship."

Sorbara, who was also Wynne's deputy chief of staff, was acquitted along with local Liberal fundraiser Gerry Lougheed of Election Act bribery charges in October, after a Sudbury, Ont., judge found no jury would convict them.

Sorbara and Lougheed were accused of offering would-be candidate Andrew Olivier a job or appointment to step aside for Wynne's preferred candidate in a 2015 byelection in Sudbury.

But Judge Howard Borenstein concluded no reasonable jury could find them guilty, granting a directed verdict application from the defence that called for the charges to be dismissed before the defence called any witnesses.

He found Olivier never could have been the candidate because Wynne had already decided to appoint Glenn Thibeault — then the NDP MP — so Sorbara and Lougheed could not be found guilty for inducing Olivier to refrain from becoming a candidate.

Sorbara also faced a second charge, alleging that she bribed Thibeault to become the candidate by arranging for paid jobs on the byelection campaign for two of his constituency staff.

But the judge said he couldn't see why agreeing to employ two qualified people would be detrimental to the electoral process. Bribery involves some element of dishonesty, Borenstein said, and nothing in the facts of that charge could be characterized as bribery.

The Liberals say Sorbara did not return as the premier's deputy chief of staff following the trial.

"Recently there has a been a great deal of discussion about the structure of the campaign team moving forward," Wynne said.

"The team that stepped up while Pat was forced to deal with completely unfounded charges in Sudbury came together and gelled in the last several months," she said. "This is the team that will take us into the coming election."

Wynne said the full organizational structure of the campaign will be announced in "the near future."



The Canadian Press


https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/01/18/pat-sorbara-out-as-co-chair-of-ontario-liberals-2018-election-campaign/#.WmFHbUn2Zjp
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Ontario pc membership passes 200,000

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