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Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:23 am    Post subject: Concerns for the New Year -- Right-wing extremism! Reply with quote

To add to the mirth of Christmas, the Toronto Star gives us a taste of its madness.

Quote:
Right-wing extremism ‘growing concern’ in Canada, federal report says
Main terrorism threat remains “violent extremists” inspired by groups like Daesh, but Public Safety Canada warns far right groups on the rise online.

By ALEX BOUTILIEROttawa Bureau Reporter
Thu., Dec. 21, 2017

OTTAWA—Extremists inspired by groups such as Daesh and Al Qaeda remain the top terrorism threat to Canada, but a new report from the federal government warns of growing far-right movements online that could translate into real-world violence.

Public Safety Canada said Thursday that the current threat of a terrorist attack on Canadian soil remains at “medium,” unchanged since the 2014 shootings on Parliament Hill.

The department, which oversees both CSIS and the RCMP, suggested Daesh or Al Qaeda-inspired individuals still represent the most significant threat—although the report noted that extremism “can stem from a range of ideologies.”

“All forms of ideology have the potential to inspire individuals or groups to commit acts of violence in their name,” the report says.

“In Canada, a small number of individuals continue to be radicalized and mobilized to violence, and may attempt to further their causes through violent means.”

So-called “extremist travellers” — Canadians who travel to support extremist causes abroad — have dominated the recent domestic terrorism discussions in Canada. The federal government now estimates there are 190 people with a “nexus” to Canada abroad — roughly half of them in Turkey, Syria or Iraq.

A further 60 have returned to Canada, although only a “relatively small number” of those are suspected of having engaged in actual combat.

But the report lists right-wing extremism as a “growing concern” in Canada. And while extreme-right groups in Canada are predominantly active online, security agencies warn the potential for violence is there.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/12/21/right-wing-extremism-growing-concern-in-canada-federal-report-says.html


You should understand -- right-wing extremism means people who think it would be a good idea for governments to operate, in the normal case, within their budgets.

More seriously, if it ends up that the state can't protect Canadians from ... oh, let's say returning ISIS troops gone jihadi on us ... and the optional therapy groups don't work, people might start thinking they should protect themselves. And what's more 'right-wing extreme than that?
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5397
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More predictions. These are from Don Martin, now the reigning prognosticator for CTV ... I would take it that the ones at the top are the more trustworthy. Even so, these are probably what he sees as the most likely outcomes of the predictable battles of 2018.

Quote:
Predicting the future of Canadian politics is a dark and murky art.

But after consulting insiders and veteran observers, I'm going to try a glimpse the year ahead and hope my mostly-wrong 2017 predictions were a particularly miserable anomaly.

For starters, it’s pretty clear NAFTA will be axed in late spring with President Donald Trump blaming Canada for being intransigent to reasonable American requests for balanced trade fairness.

Bill Morneau is found in violation of two Conflict of Interest Act provisions and privately offers to resign as finance minister. Prime Minister Trudeau refuses to accept it, primarily because he is not without ethical sins of his own, and justifies it with the minister’s record on the economy.

Fed up with being mostly invisible to media covering federal politics, sliding popularity numbers in the polls and a restless caucus, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finally runs for a Commons seat in the GTA - and wins by a narrow margin.

Pot legalization comes into force in mid-July. Despite a shortage of sales outlets and little sign illegal trafficking is negatively impacted because of a discounted price on the streets, legalization goes off with relatively little reefer retail madness.

With legal obstacles cleared, work begins on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion despite First Nation blockades to construction crews and fierce protests from the BC government. Many arrests are made.

Former Harper backbencher Patrick Brown wins the most seats in Ontario’s spring election, but falls short of a majority mandate for his Progressive Conservatives. The Liberals and NDP come to a two-year agreement that keeps Kathleen Wynne in power as premier.

Despite a roaring economy, the fledgling Coalition for Quebec's Future steamrolls to victory in the October election. Defeated premier Phillippe Couillard announces his resignation on election night.

And Justin Trudeau prorogues Parliament in September to reset his agenda through a throne speech which sets course for the 2019 election campaign. And I’ll have those predictions a year from now.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-s-political-predictions-for-2018-1.3733304


Any reactions?
queenmandy85





Joined: 26 Jun 2009
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Location: Saskatoon

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NAFTA- he's right, God help us.
Morneau- right again but JT should shuffle the Cabinet and have Morneau switch with Ralph Goodale.
Singh- will win a seat but that will only show he is all flash and no bang. (unlike JT who makes a little pop and Sheer who has no flash)
Pot - right again. Either legalize it or don't.
Trans Mountain- right again but it will cost JT a lot of seats in BC and gain nothing in Alberta.
Ont. Election- the NDP would be nuts to back a toxic Wynne. Better to let the PC's govern and make them earn NDP support on a vote by vote basis.
Quebec- Who knows?
Prorogation- probably, but only lack-lustre performances by Sheer and Singh are going to keep the Grits in power in 2019. That is if the loss of NAFTA doesn't sink them.
Merry Christmas every one.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For what it's worth, I agree with you. NAFTA is AFTA soon ... and Justin's girl has bungled it. They thought the tail could wag the dog.

Where I depart from his list is that I can't imagine that the electorate will allow any combination of factors to come about that keeps Kathleen Wynne is office. The way it often works in Ontario is that whatever party wins, wins by a big majority of seats.

I hope you're right about the Liberals, but it isn't apparent to me. They are lucky (in my opinion) because of what Trump is doing in the USA. But they oppose what he's doing! What kind of muddled thinking is that, at a policy level? A good economy keeps people uninvolved in politics.

I hope you had a Merry Christmas, Queenie, and you have my best wishes for a Happy New Year.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For all the sabre rattling on NAFTA;
I have to at least wonder if the President wants to go as far down that road as he is threatening.

He just secured a major legislative win less than a year before Midterms where he could (with the Alabama result) potentially lose both houses, I think there is certainly a background concern about the spike at the pumps if NAFTA goes sideways in the near term.

Of the 291,211,000 barrels of oil the US imported from abroad in September 2017 around 130,000,000 were from Canada and Mexico.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm

While the Canadian Government is certainly handling this negotiation poorly and the threat to the Canadian Economy is massive, its not without risk to the American Economy.

As I have said before;
Canada would be better off negotiation separate agreements with the United States and Mexico, however I have little confidence that the current government would go that route.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see it. Trump is likely to cancel NAFTA because his two partners are being jerks. From his point of view, they refuse to acknowledge that the trade imbalances are a problem. Why are they a problem? Because they indicate that jobs are being exported from the US, and products made for the US are imported from ... mostly Mexico.

Our argument should be that we supply raw materials, and that, in a sense, we are exporting our jobs with those resources because if we could refine them further domestically, we would have more jobs in Canada, and export the same material in a more refined state.

Who knows what they actually talk about at the table, but if Crystia is any guide, both Canada and Mexico rejected the American position, and offered no counter-proposal. Yet they will not take the initiative of breaking off negotiations. In the meantime, Crystia has suggested asking Mexico to match Canada in the protection of gender rights, and all of that stuff. Just stupid stuff that (I hope) is for the media, and never gets to the negotiating table.

The real situation: if the US cancelled their participation in NAFTA, and then offered to negotiate a new trade deal with Canada -- who would say no? The Trudeau team has made it so that withdrawing from NAFTA has no downside. The Trump side has made it clear that the imbalance of trade must be addressed, that simple.

Trudeau tied our claims with those of Mexico, without realizing it is Mexico that costs Americans the giant share of their lost jobs. We should have protected the auto pact, which is based on sharing production in proportion to sales in the two markets.

My feeling is that the Liberals have bungled these negotiations to the same degree that they bungled electoral reform or marijuana legalization. They don't even seem to recognize what the Canadian national interest is.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I don't see it. Trump is likely to cancel NAFTA because his two partners are being jerks. From his point of view, they refuse to acknowledge that the trade imbalances are a problem. Why are they a problem? Because they indicate that jobs are being exported from the US, and products made for the US are imported from ... mostly Mexico.


I don't disagree.
Mexico and Canada are trying to make political hay out of the negotiations. its reckless and irresponsible.

It just doesn't change the fact that as Stephen Harper always said "Canada has the energy card to play". We aren't talking 10% of imports we are talking nearly 40% of all oil imports to the US. A tariff on that would be massive and far reaching.

My thought is that is a large part of the reason why the US is still at the table. That isn't to say that the President won't walk, but I would imagine as a President of a nation with 253 million cars and trucks on the road its a consideration.
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