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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
all the visits by high profile liberals to the Battlefords Lloydminster riding seem particular odd considering its electoral history . it seems that the ndp and liberals are battling it out for second at this point , to be able to say you came in second is hardly worth a visit by a PM . and larry Ingram is not a star candidate , rather dull and uninspiring candidate who already was rejected by the voters once before


its hard to figure out how the local cpc campaign is going as Rosemarie Falk seems to have a limited online presence , only able to find a few posts on instagram and a rather quiet twitter page , odd considering she's running in a by election . ( also can't find evidence of any cpc mp's or such coming to the riding to help her ) but it be shocking if either the ndp or liberal candidate even managed to come within 20% of the cpc in this riding

its surprising Jagmeet Singh hasn't even been to the riding as the ndp campaign seems active and oddly optimistic considering there past results


Since the ridings formation in 1997 the Liberals have never finished better than 3rd and never closer than 30% away from the winner.

This by-election is about increase the percentage of the vote and finishing second.
If they can win three by-elections and increase they totals in Battlefords—Lloydminster to lets say 25% or 30% they will use that as a means to declare an endorsement of their policies.

Its like Patrick Browns approach to by-Elections.
He has boasted that he has seen an increase in PC support in every by-election since he was elected leader.

Even in ridings like Ottawa—Vanier where they got their tails kicked.
Makes for an effective sound byte
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
The reason the CPC is likely to lose South Surrey White Rock is because the LPC has borrowed a page from Harpers old playbook.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
and Vaughan

These were all ridings that the CPC won while in government that they have zero business winning.

BQ & LPC ridings historically and in some cases with nearly zero CPC ground game in the riding.

However, they understood that by-elections were more about local issues rather than Federal ones and assured they secured popular and known candidates within the ridings.

The Liberals hit a home run in landing Gordon Hogg to be their candidate.
He was on city council in White Rock for two decades, one of them as mayor then was the areas MLA for a decade.

The guy even coaches little league.

Whereas the CPC opted to slide in a former Minister who lost her riding in 2015, who appears to have a great resume by I am struggling to find her ties to this community.

This riding has a strong Conservative base, but if you aren't giving them a reason to go out and vote you will certainly lose the by-election.



Kerry Lynne Findlay definitely has ties to the riding and general area , pretty sure I saw a post that indicated she voted in the by election so she must currently live in the riding , she seems to have been involved in BC politics for years and even ran in the 2000 election doing surprisingly well in Vancouver Quadra

but she was an mp for Delta Richmond East which is close by to this riding , from an Ontario sense it sort of be like someone from Oakville running in Burlington

the liberals are clearly using this by election as an attempt to claim there support is surging in BC although everyone seems to think there only in the by election cause they found a great local candidate

I also think its disgusting that trudeau is campaigning in all the by elections and flying across the country in a government jet to do so , rather than be in Ottawa and actually do something productive for Canadians


The fact that she lives in the riding is a low bar to define her ties to the community.
She clearly has ties to the general area but no where near that of Hogg in the specific riding.

All I am saying is that if they lose, they lost because the LPC was able to attract a better candidate much as was the case in Lac-Saint-Jean.

The Liberals are basically doing exactly what the CPC use to do in By-Elections.



she still has enough ties to the area that she doesn't fit the definition of a parachute candidate to me , other examples in BC where someone literally had no ties to a riding but still ran there anyways , like Christy Clark after she lost her Vancouver seat and ran in Kelowna


Overall Findlay appears to have ran a good campaign , without any major controversies or gaffes and it appears she'd make a good mp ( although I admit I can barely remember her time in cabinet before she lost in 2015 ) , if she isn't able to win an historically right of centre riding there will be a lot of questions to ask

turnout might be the deciding factor , are older cpc voters more likely to show up for a by election or are the liberals doing well enough in BC to hold onto there 2015 voters ? whoever wins will likely do so with much less actual votes than 2015 winner
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
all the visits by high profile liberals to the Battlefords Lloydminster riding seem particular odd considering its electoral history . it seems that the ndp and liberals are battling it out for second at this point , to be able to say you came in second is hardly worth a visit by a PM . and larry Ingram is not a star candidate , rather dull and uninspiring candidate who already was rejected by the voters once before


its hard to figure out how the local cpc campaign is going as Rosemarie Falk seems to have a limited online presence , only able to find a few posts on instagram and a rather quiet twitter page , odd considering she's running in a by election . ( also can't find evidence of any cpc mp's or such coming to the riding to help her ) but it be shocking if either the ndp or liberal candidate even managed to come within 20% of the cpc in this riding

its surprising Jagmeet Singh hasn't even been to the riding as the ndp campaign seems active and oddly optimistic considering there past results


Since the ridings formation in 1997 the Liberals have never finished better than 3rd and never closer than 30% away from the winner.

This by-election is about increase the percentage of the vote and finishing second.
If they can win three by-elections and increase they totals in Battlefords—Lloydminster to lets say 25% or 30% they will use that as a means to declare an endorsement of their policies.

Its like Patrick Browns approach to by-Elections.
He has boasted that he has seen an increase in PC support in every by-election since he was elected leader.

Even in ridings like Ottawa—Vanier where they got their tails kicked.
Makes for an effective sound byte



still its hard to believe they'd bring in a PM to a hard to reach rural riding just in the hopes of coming in second ? but that appears to be the case as a win for a liberal candidate in rural Saskatchewan is rare and rather unlikely .

perhaps there worried about the ndp resurgence in the province as they won 2 provincial by elections in historically ndp ridings in Saskatoon and that a strong ndp finish would motivate ndp supporters in the prairies as they get ready for 2019 election

but overall its hard to believe trudeau might be the only federal leader to visit the Battlefords Lloydminster riding this by election , ( a riding I can't ever recall a federal liberal leader visiting during a general election )
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Battlefords-Lloydminster byelection ‘a challenge’ for Liberal Party, Trudeau says

Larry Ingram and Justin Trudeau
Larry Ingram, the Liberal candidate for the upcoming Battlefords-Lloydminster byelection, poses with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Facebook)


Mark Villani
Mark Villani, Reporter

@CTVMarkVillani
.
Published Friday, December 8, 2017 10:29AM CST


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is calling the upcoming federal byelection in Battlefords-Lloydminster “a challenge” for his Liberal Party.

Canada’s leader made the comments Friday morning in Saskatoon, after a photo opportunity with breakfast-goers at Hometown Diner in the Riversdale neighbourhood.

He was visiting the province for meetings and to back Liberal byelection candidate Larry Ingram. He and Ingram participated in a meet-and-greet event Thursday night in North Battleford.



Trudeau in Saskatoon at Hometown Diner
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau chats with breakfast-goers at Hometown Diner in Saskatoon on Friday, Dec. 8, 2017. (Mark Villani/CTV Saskatoon)

“It’s great to be back in Saskatchewan,” Trudeau said. “It was a great crowd, a great opportunity to hear some local concerns, meet a lot of people connected with their local democracy, and, for me, getting people to pay attention to politics is just half the battle.”

Trudeau said, although it will be a challenge to swing more Liberal votes, he wants to focus on the needs of the people of Saskatchewan.

“Rural Saskatchewan has been a challenge for the Liberal Party,” he said.

“Whether it is making sure the canola farmers have continued market access into China, making sure we’re increasing beef opportunities, and the way we’ve moved forward on delivering pipelines while showing leadership on the environment. These are the kinds of things that matter to people in Saskatchewan and it’s great to show people that we take their concerns very seriously.”

The seat for Battlefords-Lloydminster had been held since June 1997 by Conservative MP Gerry Ritz before he made the decision to step down in October of this year.

Liberal candidate Ingram will be up against four other candidates in the Dec. 11 federal byelection. Rosemarie Falk is running as the Conservative candidate; Matt Fedler is aiming to win for the New Democrats; Yvonne Potter-Pihach is running for the Green Party; and Ken Finlayson is an independent candidate

Ingram ran for the Liberals against Ritz in the 2015 federal election.
http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/ba.....-1.3713154
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

she still has enough ties to the area that she doesn't fit the definition of a parachute candidate to me , other examples in BC where someone literally had no ties to a riding but still ran there anyways , like Christy Clark after she lost her Vancouver seat and ran in Kelowna

Overall Findlay appears to have ran a good campaign , without any major controversies or gaffes and it appears she'd make a good mp ( although I admit I can barely remember her time in cabinet before she lost in 2015 ) , if she isn't able to win an historically right of centre riding there will be a lot of questions to ask

turnout might be the deciding factor , are older cpc voters more likely to show up for a by election or are the liberals doing well enough in BC to hold onto there 2015 voters ? whoever wins will likely do so with much less actual votes than 2015 winner


I don't consider her a parachute candidate;
Just an unspectacular one.

My point is more the effect that she is a less of a known commodity than Hogg.

Your point is fair, she ran a good campaign without issues in a riding that is generally speaking somewhat Conservative leaning.

If she loses its not because she did anything wrong its because the LPC found a rockstar.

My hope is the CPC retains, but I am expecting them not to.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:

she still has enough ties to the area that she doesn't fit the definition of a parachute candidate to me , other examples in BC where someone literally had no ties to a riding but still ran there anyways , like Christy Clark after she lost her Vancouver seat and ran in Kelowna

Overall Findlay appears to have ran a good campaign , without any major controversies or gaffes and it appears she'd make a good mp ( although I admit I can barely remember her time in cabinet before she lost in 2015 ) , if she isn't able to win an historically right of centre riding there will be a lot of questions to ask

turnout might be the deciding factor , are older cpc voters more likely to show up for a by election or are the liberals doing well enough in BC to hold onto there 2015 voters ? whoever wins will likely do so with much less actual votes than 2015 winner


I don't consider her a parachute candidate;
Just an unspectacular one.

My point is more the effect that she is a less of a known commodity than Hogg.

Your point is fair, she ran a good campaign without issues in a riding that is generally speaking somewhat Conservative leaning.

If she loses its not because she did anything wrong its because the LPC found a rockstar.

My hope is the CPC retains, but I am expecting them not to.



but who would be a star candidate for the cpc in BC these days ? I don't really know

I guess Kerry Lynn Findlay isn't a star candidate but they could of done a lot worse

it also shows the liberals don't really want more women in parliament unless there liberal women , they go all out to try and defeat cpc women candidates so the ridings can be represented in parliament by a liberal often a man ( look at Ontario in 2015 they replaced Lois Brown , Stella Ambler , Susan Truppe with liberal men ) and then turn around and claim they want more women in parliament ( same could be said for some former western Canada female cpc mp's Shelly Glover , Joan Crockett , Nina Grewal and Leona Aglukkaq ridings now represented by liberal men )

I'd describe the riding is more than conservative leaning , its been either pc , reform , alliance or conservative since the early 70's ( surrey appears to have been ndp in early 70's ) , there's been some strong liberal campaigns in the riding but all ultimately failed ( Gordon hogg in 1993 , Judy Higginbotham in 2004 and 2015 ) , all years the liberals polled high nationally and formed government
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Frankly, this is a time to remind people that Justin is only the face of the Liberal party, which is a machine. I used to think of him as a hood-ornament, but (after his performance in China) I think that gives him too much gravitas.

He needs to be kept on a shorter leash. He's pretty big news in Canada, and even more so in places that don't get to glimpse celebrity very often. We have to face it, he was on the cover of the Rolling Stone. But he shouldn't be allowed to roam, without a muzzle, in places where the genuinely powerful hang out.

He makes people think Canadians are a bunch of simpletons.



well its true Justin Trudeau is the face of the liberal party but there is much more to the liberal party than 1 man .

a campaign visit by trudeau by itself is not going to swing a deeply blue cpc riding like Battlefords Lloydminster to the liberals

struggling liberal campaigns seem to think the only way they can get any attention is if they bring trudeau into the riding ,

but part of the problem is trudeau seems to do better on the campaign trail then when at work in government , his image at campaign stops and rallies seems more positive when he's campaigning then the tired and unable to answer any questions person we see in question period

this might be a problem as we going into the next election , trudeau may do a crappy job in government and look like a fool in question period but the campaign will be a different ball game , one he seems to excel at
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I meant by describing him as the hood ornament is that he sees it as his responsibility to get the votes, to explain away whatever media problems the party may have, etc.

I don't mean that he is taking orders, exactly. Or that the Liberals are only one individual. Any government has a small the inner circle where people who believe the same things and make the real on-the-spot policy decisions when they come up. Butts is a long-time friend of Trudeau, trusted and experienced. There will be committees of top civil servants and politicians, and Trudeau is certainly a factor, in my estimation. That's how governments operate. It's normal to have a small group of cabinet members who organize the overall effort of government, along with a rotating group of senior civil servants.

Trudeau realizes he's no expert at any of this, so once the basic thrust of policy is set, he takes on the faceplate job as his contribution to the division of labour. I imagine that Harper, in the same situation, would carve out economic management for example.

I think that's why he's out in BC and Saskatchewan for these by-elections. He's being conscientious about doing his part in pulling this off. It's like a juggling act, keeping most of the people fooled most of the time. (I mean, nobody serious claims that this government is better than the previous one.)

Trudeau leads the party, but he also serves the party. He looks good, in as much as he ever held a job, he was an actor and a public speaker. He presents well. He has the legacy of his father's name. He attracts crowds, and he motivates the troops. You can't take his success away from him. And I think he sees this as part of his role.

If he had more range he would do better, but his error is to always be the goody-goody two-shoes. That's my opinion. He is the very voice of breathless idealism. But that gets tiresome.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sask. MP questions lack of advance polls on First Nations in byelection

Sheri Benson says people faced lengthy drive to vote in advance polls for byelection to replace Gerry Ritz

CBC News Posted: Dec 08, 2017 2:11 PM CT| Last Updated: Dec 08, 2017 4:39 PM CT

MP Sheri Benson is concerned that no advance polls for the Battlefords-Lloydminster byelection were placed on First Nations.


MP Sheri Benson wants to know why there were no advance polls placed on First Nations for the federal byelection to replace a Saskatchewan MP.

The Battlefords-Lloydminster byelection was called after long-time MP Gerry Ritz stepped down in October. The byelection will take place on Dec. 11, but advance voting took place Dec. 1-4.

Elections Canada confirmed Friday none of the advance polls were on reserves in the area.

In question period Friday, Benson — the member of Parliament for Saskatoon-West — said it's unfair that some people in the riding of Battlefords-Lloydminster had to drive 45 minutes to vote in an advance poll.

"How can we encourage better election participation from Indigenous people if we don't have advance polls anywhere near Indigenous communities?" she said. "And how is this part of a nation-to-nation relationship?"


MP Andy Fillmore, the parliamentary secretary to Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, promised to look into the matter.

An Elections Canada spokesperson said while there were no advance polls on First Nations, there was consultation with the various First Nations communities in the area.

"Electors living on reserves were allowed to vote in advance polling locations so everybody did have an advance polling location. However, at the advance polling days they were not on reserve," said Matthew McKenna, a spokesperson from Elections Canada.

McKenna said the returning officer in the area did reach out to the nine reserves in the area.

On Monday's beyelection day, there will be polling stations open for voting on six First Nations: Onion Lake, Poundmaker, Red Pheasant, Little Pine, Sweetgrass and Saulteaux First Nations.


Five candidates are running to replace Ritz.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.4440141
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a fishery group is trying to raise the issue of commercial fishing in the by election , one of the first signs of there being any local issues in this by election )



FISH-NL questions byelection candidates on fishery issues


The Telegram
Published: 16 hours ago
Updated: 15 hours ago

FISH-NL president Ryan Cleary.
FISH-NL president Ryan Cleary. - The Telegram

The Federation of Independent Sea Harvesters of Newfoundland and Labrador (FISH-NL) has released answers that federal candidates in the upcoming federal byelection in the district of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity gave to questions concerning the fishery.

Liberal candidate Churence Rogers and Conservative candidate Mike Windsor supplied responses, while New Democrat Tyler Downey failed to do so, FISH-NL stated in a news release.


“The fishery is critical to the future of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, and the responses from Mr. Rogers and Mr. Windsor will give inshore fish harvesters, and the rural communities where they live, an indication of where the politicians and parties stand,” FISH-NL president Ryan Cleary said.

“Constituents will ultimately decide where to mark their X, and hopefully this survey will help with their decision.”

FISH-NL questions and responses are as follows:

• Do you agree with the federal government’s decision to open the south coast (fishing zone 3Ps) cod fishery to offshore draggers?

• Do you agree the offshore sector should be removed from the 3Ps cod fishery when the quota falls below 10,000 tonnes?

• Do you agree with the decision of the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans to expropriate 25 per cent of the 2018 Arctic surf clam quota and reassign to a yet-to-be-determined Indigenous-led operation?

• What is your stand on open pen aquaculture such as the Grieg proposal for Placentia Bay verses closed-containment, land-based fish farming?

• Do you plan to make it your priority to ensure DFO establishes comprehensive rebuilding plans, with timelines, for northern cod and all other critically stressed species?

Churence Rogers:

“I fully recognize the cultural and economic importance of the cod stock to fishers in our communities and throughout Newfoundland and Labrador, and I am committed to ensuring that our fisheries, including cod, are viable and sustainable for future generations and that any management decisions are based on science.

While I recognize that aquaculture is the fastest growing food-production system in the world, I am committed to working with the Liberal government to continue improving Canada’s already strong regulatory system to ensure that our aquaculture industry is safe, healthy, and protects the sustainable use of our marine resources.

The Liberal government has also committed to investing $197 million over five years to improve fisheries and aquaculture science. This will inform the development of regulations and contribute to improvements in environmental performance. And this past April, the government announced that they will be conducting full stock assessments of the Northern cod stock for the next five years, beginning in winter 2018. This represents a total investment of approximately $14 million in science to help us better understand our Northern cod stocks — and that is an important investment for our community.

Aquaculture provides well-paying, year-round jobs to thousands of Canadians, many of whom live right here in our riding. I am looking forward to working closely with Justin Trudeau and the Liberal team to continue supporting local jobs and industry in a way that is environmentally and economically sustainable.”

Mike Windsor:

“I believe that the Department of Fisheries and Oceans should listen to fishermen and their organizations when making these decisions. A moratorium should be considered if it will allow for a greater rebuilding of the stock and contribute to the viability of our coastal communities. Given the significant reductions in the total allowable catch for 3PS cod in recent years, it is extremely important that the Department of Fisheries and Oceans work closely with fishers and their organizations when deciding how best to distribute quota. While the government has a responsibility to ensure a fair distribution of the resource, I personally support priority access for the principles of adjacency and historic participation, which in most instances means priority access to the less mobile under 65-foot inshore sector.

I disagree with the decision of the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans to bring a new entrant into the surf clam fishery without increasing the quota. This poor decision will result in a 25 per cent reduction in employment at the Grand Bank fish plant. The previous Conservative government increased the total allowable catch of surf clams in 2015 to permit a new entrant in the fishery. Unfortunately, the Liberals reversed that decision and are now putting jobs in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity at risk by adding a new entrant without increasing the quota. I support new entrants to the surf clam fish when the quota increases. In the meantime, I will fight for the protection of local jobs.

The Province is responsible for approving aquaculture sites. Meanwhile, I believe that some level of environmental assessment is required as Placentia Bay is environmentally sensitive. Land-based aquaculture systems are currently not commercially viable. There have been many studies to support this view. An independent study commissioned by the Government of Nova Scotia called into question whether or not Atlantic salmon could be farmed in land-based closed containment systems.

I would make it a priority that the government implement comprehensive rebuilding plans, with timelines, for northern cod and all other critically stressed species. The sustainability of all fish stocks is very important to rural Newfoundland and Labrador, and particularly so to inshore harvesters who support their communities."

http://www.thetelegram.com/new.....es-168745/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( scheer has made a last minute stop in not BC or Sask by elections but Scarborough Agincourt , the supposedly safe liberal seat in Toronto a city the cpc has only won seats in 2011 election when they won majority and ndp surged . although he has nothing to lose by coming here and its likely the cpc candidate does very well by Toronto standards ,
they got 38% of the vote here in 2015 even though it plunged in other ridings so there not likely to do much worse than that , which would be a strong finish even if they don't win , is also the crazy possibility that a combination of liberal apathy ( there voters ) thinking there going to win anyways and not showing up in great numbers and wynne's unpopularity at provincial level that somehow they win )



Andrew Scheer‏Verified account @AndrewScheer · 18h18 hours ago

Great turnout at our rally for @DasongZou. @KentThornhillMP, @BobSaroya and I know he'll be a fantastic voice for this community. Scarborough—Agincourt: Vote for Dasong on Monday!
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the cpc candidate secured a late endorsement from Doug Ford , sort of an odd endorsement for a federal by election but anyways )


Doug Ford‏Verified account @fordnation · 6h6 hours ago

In #Scarborough Agincourt today to support @DasongZou for tomorrow’s By-Election. Where to vote: https://www.conservative.ca/byelection/en



( what also should be noted is the ndp actually appears to be trying this by election unlike Markham Thornhill when they got like 600 votes , although I'd still say there headed for maybe 10% of the vote as they normally get there )





Brian Chang‏ @bfchang · Dec 9

Right across Scarborough Agincourt, residents are telling us they have never seen such an #NDP presence. They are excited and feeling the ❤&💪🏾. Team #RealChang bringing the #Orange
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the author mostly focuses on campaigning in the surrey area over the years but if we look back it be tough to recall a PM campaigning in a by election , yet alone twice , the visits to this single riding are unheard of for a PM to do that )



BUCHOLTZ: Leaders’ focus on South Surrey-White Rock riding unprecedented

Never has a sitting prime minister spent this much time and energy campaigning for single candidate
Dec. 8, 2017 9:01 a.m./
Columnists/
Opinion


The federal byelection in South Surrey-White Rock takes place next Monday, Dec. 11.

The byelection has captured more interest than usual, largely because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has visited the area twice to campaign with Liberal candidate Gordie Hogg. This is unprecedented here. Never has a sitting prime minister spent that much time and energy campaigning for a single candidate, and no party leader has spent time in South Surrey/White Rock during an election.


When most of Surrey was in one federal riding, from 1968 to 1979, it was rare for a federal party leader to visit. Trudeau’s father, Pierre, did make a famous appearance at Fort Langley in the 1968 “Trudeaumania” campaign. It partially worked – the Liberals won Fraser Valley East, but were shut out in Fraser Valley West and Surrey-White Rock.
•South Surrey byelection a test of Trudeau’s popularity, Scheer’s rookie leadership

As more ridings were added, it became more likely that a federal leader would visit the city during a general election campaign. In 1988, Liberal Leader John Turner came as part of his passionate campaign against the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement, perhaps the last federal election so focused on a single issue.

More recently, Surrey has become a regular stop for leaders because of the ever-increasing number of ridings. In 2015, incumbent prime minister Stephen Harper, Trudeau and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair all visited.

The visits were most fruitful for Trudeau, as four of five Surrey ridings went to the Liberals – a seismic shift, given that since 1953, the only federal Liberal elected in Surrey was Sukh Dhaliwal, in 2006 and 2008. Dhaliwal’s wins came after he finished second to Conservative Gurmant Grewal in 2004. He won in 2006, but not by much. In 2008, Dhaliwal’s win was more decisive, and in 2011, he lost his seat to New Democrat Jinny Sims.
•White Rock mayor’s leaked letter shows Trudeau the way

The Liberals could make Surrey 100 per cent theirs if Hogg wins the byelection. He certainly has a shot – more than 1,400 people registered to hear Trudeau speak at Semiahmoo Secondary on Saturday. Hogg also has the benefit of being well-known as a former White Rock councillor, mayor and BC Liberal MLA.

The Conservatives have fielded former Delta-Richmond East MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay as their candidate. While she was in the Harper cabinet, she is not nearly as well-known here as Hogg is. Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has been in the riding twice to campaign on her behalf, but he is an unknown quantity to the public.

South Surrey-White Rock voters have historically voted conservative – electing Progressive Conservative, Reform, Canadian Alliance and Conservative MPs since the riding was formed with somewhat different boundaries in 1988. This byelection could see a shift, but results will likely be close, with the Liberals and Conservatives the only real contenders.

It is important to remember that byelections traditionally have smaller turnouts, and this one is occurring in the busy pre-Christmas season.

Getting the vote out will be crucial. The party that manages to do so most successfully will be the one that wins.

Frank Bucholtz writes Fridays for the Now-Leader.

https://www.surreynowleader.com/opinion/bucholtz-leaders-focus-on-south-surrey-white-rock-riding-unprecedented/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( may actually visited a by election riding )


Aaron Hinks‏ @aaron_hinks · Dec 9


Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and South Surrey-White Rock candidate Larry Colero speaking at Crescent Coffee House in South Surrey. And yes, that guy on the right is now a speaker stand.



whats so odd about these by elections Is the absence of the ndp leader , I can't recall an ndp leader ever staying this low key during 4 by elections and Jagmeet Singh appears to have only visited 1 riding , scarborough Agincourt . it seem odd to keep him away from the 4 ridings , as you'd think they'd want to increase his name recognition across the country and going into by elections is one way to generate some press

I checked his twitter page and last weekend he went to Windsor Ontario but hasn't been near any of the by election ridings all week or this weekend
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surrey federal byelection being characterized as 'too close to call'


Local


by Renee Bernard
Posted Dec 10, 2017 7:20 pm PST
Last Updated Dec 10, 2017 at 7:35 pm PST



Political scientist says byelection in Surrey will be neck-in-neck between the Conservatives and the Liberals




The leaders of both the Conservative and Liberal parties came out during the campaign, but the new NDP leader was absent



SURREY (NEWS1130) – On Monday, voters in South Surrey-White Rock, as well as three other federal ridings, go to the polls to select new MPs.

The South Surrey byelection campaign was able to generate attention thanks to visits by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

New NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was noticeably absent.


“I was a little surprised by that. The NDP didn’t have a great chance in this riding, but the NDP selected him to be a leader that would appeal to urban and suburban ridings,” says Unversity of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford.


He doesn’t get the impression that the byelection was essentially a referendum on the party leaders or their policies.

“Perhaps after the results come in, we can reassess that and wonder if the scandal involving the finance minister played into it. But at the moment it appears that, more or less, local issues were dominating.”

The finance minister scandal refers to Bill Morneau neglecting to put his substantial personal holdings into a blind trust. Morneau is the multimillionaire former chief executive officer of human resources company Morneau Shepell. The controversy sparked allegations of conflict-of-interest.

In fact, Telford says it’s too close to call whether the Conservatives will re-take the seat, or whether the Liberals will win. The seat was left vacant when Dianne Watts resigned to run in the BC Liberal leadership race.

The winners in the other three byelections are pretty well a foregone conclusion.

South Surrey-White Rock candidates
•Larry Colero of the Green Party of Canada
•Kerry-Lynne Findlay of the Conservative Party of Canada
•Gordie Hogg of the Liberal Party of Canada
•Michael Huenefeld of the Progressive Canadian Party
•Jonathan Silveira of the New Democratic Party
•Rod Taylor of the Christian Heritage Party of Canada
•Donald Wilson of the Libertarian Party of Canada



The three other byelections

The byelection being held in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Newfoundland and Labrador is being held to replace Liberal Judy Foote due to unspecified family issues.

In Scarborough-Agincourt, Ontario, the race was prompted by Liberal Arnold Chan’s death to cancer in September.

In Battlefords-Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, the seat was left vacant by former Conservative agriculture minister Gerry Ritz who announced his resignation in late August.

http://www.news1130.com/2017/1.....lose-call/
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4 Federal By Elections on December 11

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