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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The CPC is best to wait till June before they opt to press to hard on any policy buttons.

The OLP and NDP are campaigning on deficit budgets during economic boom;
The cardinal sin to any first year Economics student or in theory a common sense voter.

If the OLP isnt able to save themselves and the NDP fails to make significant gains, but the PCs with their crazy talk of balanced budgets, reducing debt, and lowering taxes is something that can resonate with voters in the GTA, then your 2019 platform basically writes itself.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( in a bizarre speech trudeau attempts to claim Scheer is actually Stephen Harper and promoting fear an division ? serious trying to paint Scheer as scary is going to be a tough one , boring dude married with kids , this guy is not scary and exactly how he's promoting fear and division I have no idea where he came up with that .)


'Fear and division': Trudeau rips Conservatives in campaign-style speech to supporters



Prime Minister says Andrew Scheer is presiding over Stephen Harper's party


Kathleen Harris · CBC News · Posted: Apr 21, 2018 3:27 PM ET | Last Updated: 42 minutes ago



Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addresses the media on the final day of the Liberal Party convention in Halifax 0:00


235 comments


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took sharp aim at his chief electoral opponent today, casting Andrew Scheer as a divisive force in a campaign-style speech to fire up his troops.

Addressing about 3,000 delegates at the Liberal policy convention in Halifax, Trudeau seized on the Conservative leader's characterization as "Stephen Harper with a smile."

"It may be Andrew Scheer's smile. But it's still Stephen Harper's party," he told a raucous room of supporters. "The same policies, the same politics of fear and division. If anything, they've been emboldened by successful campaigns elsewhere in the world to divide one against the other."


With 18 months to go before the 2019 election, Trudeau asked supporters for their enthusiasm, ideas, positivity and energy to help the Liberal government win re-election.

"Most of all, we need your hope and hard work," he said.

Positive politics

Trudeau said Canadians rejected the politics of fear and division in 2015, opting instead for positive politics fuelled by ideas over demonizing opponents.

He touted the Liberal record on everything from the economy, to gun control, to helping the Syrian refugee crisis.

He thanked the more than two million Canadians who played a role in sponsoring refugees.

"What makes me proudest of our fellow citizens is that they did it despite the flood of fact-less fear-mongering that aimed to dissuade them from doing it," he said. "We Canadians know who we are."

Trudeau reached out to Conservative supporters, noting that Conservatives are not enemies of Liberals, but their neighbours.

"We will fight for Canadians. All Canadians," he said. "We will fight for their future and for their hopes and dreams. We will fight for their right to have a government that respects them, that listens to them, that sticks up for them, and that cares about them."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4630161
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lets hope that is what the campaign approach will be come 2019;

I don't believe that the Stephen Harper Boogie man is as effective of a tool as they may hope it is.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This shows me they are resting on their scant laurels, tub-thumping on the same themes, which were fresh and innovative (sounding) at the last election -- who would have thought that borrowing a little bit of cheap money would give us a more dynamic economy before Justin?

But now these themes are reminders of the hollow joke Trudeau played on us.

What holds voters to the Trudeau Liberals, as far as I can see, is the child benefit package he brought in. (Mothers of pre-school kids get about $6500 per child a year, indexed to inflation, and with tantalizing increases annually.) It's financed with borrowed money.

What to do about that?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Liberals won because of tremendous voter enthusiasm on their side.

Marijuana will be legalized, Election Reform is toast, and you can only cancel Harper Era Tax cuts once, which prompts the question what gets the legions of voters out this time?

The vitriol the electorate had for Stephen Harper also went away with the resignation of Stephen Harper.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The Liberals won because of tremendous voter enthusiasm on their side.

Marijuana will be legalized, Election Reform is toast, and you can only cancel Harper Era Tax cuts once, which prompts the question what gets the legions of voters out this time?

The vitriol the electorate had for Stephen Harper also went away with the resignation of Stephen Harper.



most people seem to have forgot about Stephen Harper , how could you campaign on him in 2019 ? it seems crazy , it be like a mayor campaigning against the unpopular former mayor 4 years after he already beat him , just seems weird and doesn't even make sense as a campaign strategy

( I don't recall the liberals campaigning against Brian Mulroney or Kim Campbell in 97 as they had been forgotten by then and no longer of any importance , former pm's generally aren't especially important to campaigns once they've left office )


everyone also seems to agree there isn't going to be a repeat of the record turnout in 2019 , the by elections we've seen so far have had low turnout . my guess 2019 turnout would be similar to 1997 ,2000 , 2008 maybe ? whatever it was those years but definitely not what it was in 2015


I remember voting in the advance polls in 2015 , there was people there you'd normally never see voting in elections here , this one girl in her 20's is known as the drunk /whore/marijuana enthusiast of the local pub , she was there voting , there is no way they get people like that out twice as they've already got there pot , which was all they wanted from trudeau
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The latest Forums Poll has the CPC up 13 points over the LPC;

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....serace.pdf

Basically a 207 seat majority.

With all that said;
I am reluctant to buy into a CPC lead in Quebec;
However I could be sold on the LPC and CPC numbers being switched in reality as the BQ and NDP are in chaos in Quebec.

If Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is close there is certainly a discussion to be had about Quebec as they finished 4th in 2015 yet were the first to select a candidate for this by-election.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We should be making a new deal with Quebec. Right now.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The latest Forums Poll has the CPC up 13 points over the LPC;

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....serace.pdf

Basically a 207 seat majority.

With all that said;
I am reluctant to buy into a CPC lead in Quebec;
However I could be sold on the LPC and CPC numbers being switched in reality as the BQ and NDP are in chaos in Quebec.

If Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is close there is certainly a discussion to be had about Quebec as they finished 4th in 2015 yet were the first to select a candidate for this by-election.



the Chicoutimi by election will be interesting although I'd also doubt the cpc is leading in quebec other than possibly in the quebec city region


if they do well in the by election it likely be cause the liberal , ndp and bloc vote is somewhat divided , also not sure if any of the parties other than cpc have even nominated candidates yet , which seems odd as mp left several months ago and by election must be called by June
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( it seems the liberals are nervous about 2019 , why else are they bringing in a pre election spending cap of $1.5 million for political parties ? clearly they trying to restrict the conservatives from doing an add blitz against trudeau in the lead up to the election , although they could still run some ads but it would be a limited media buy compared to other years )


Liberal elections bill aimed at tighter rules on spending, privacy


The federal government wants to make it easier for Canadians to vote while making it harder for political parties to spend vast sums to persuade them who to vote for.


By Joanna SmithThe Canadian Press

Mon., April 30, 2018


OTTAWA—The federal Liberal government wants to make it easier for Canadians to cast a ballot, while making it harder for political parties to spend vast sums to persuade them who to vote for — or to violate their privacy.

Treasury Board President Scott Brison introduced a bill Monday meant to address several promises Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made on the campaign trail, including by tackling how much political parties and third-party advocacy groups can spend before and during election campaigns.

“We know that the protection of our electoral system is absolutely essential and over the years, we have seen new threats and new challenges appearing that may affect the integrity of our electoral system,” Trudeau said Monday in Vancouver.

Brison is acting as democratic institutions minister while Karina Gould, who usually fills that role, is on maternity leave.

The proposed legislation, if passed, would limit how much political parties can spend on partisan advertising leading up to the official campaign period, which would be about $1.5 million in 2019.

Third-party advocacy groups, meanwhile, would be limited to spending $10,000 per electoral district — up to $1 million in total — on partisan advertising, activities and election-related surveys.

After the writs are dropped, however, those third parties would be able to spend up to $500,000 in 2019, which is more than allowed now, but none of it could come from foreign entities.

The bill is also meant to modernize the Canada Elections Act to reflect the fact that a lot of campaigning now takes place online, introducing a number of new risks to the privacy of Canadians.


The proposed legislation, known as Bill C-76, would require all political parties to create and publish a policy on how they will protect the privacy of voters, including what information they are collecting from potential voters, how it will be safeguarded and how it will be used.

Bill C-76 also contains some measures to make voting more accessible, such as allowing advance polls to remain open for 12 hours, and creating a registry of Canadians between the ages of 14 to 17, who would be allowed to vote within the next few years.

The Liberal government introduced some reforms in November 2016, aimed at undoing some of what the Conservatives introduced through their Fair Elections Act — including restoring the use of the voter identification card as a valid piece of ID.

That bill, stalled at the introductory stage ever since, will be rolled into the new one.

The legislation does not, however, come through on the promise to create an independent commission to organize televised debates among party leaders.

Last week, the Institute for Research on Public Policy, which the Liberal government had tasked with hosting roundtables on the issue, released a report concluding it is more important to make sure that particular reform is done correctly than it is to do it quickly.

“The commission should be built to last,” said the report.

“It should be adaptable to evolving voter preferences, party configurations, and social context,” said the report. “It is more important, therefore, to get it right than to get it soon.”

The Liberals are confident the changes will be in place in time for Canadians to vote in the next federal election.

“We want to have these measures in place by the election in 2019, because Canadians expect elections to be reliable and safe,” Trudeau said.

But acting chief electoral officer Stephane Perrault said last week that anything meant to apply in 2019 should have been in place by now.


https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/04/30/liberal-elections-bill-aimed-at-tighter-rules-on-spending-privacy.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

(we can see why the liberals suddenly feel its necessary to restrict pre election advertising , the conservatives raised $6 million in the first quarter , almost twice what the liberals raised $3.3 million , with that kind of financial advantage a pre election ads blitz is easily affordable but with the new law won't be allowed )


Tories trounce Liberals — in fundraising

Canadian Press


Published:
April 30, 2018


Updated:
April 30, 2018 5:29 PM EDT


Filed Under:

Canoe ›
News ›
Canada ›

Leader of the Opposition Andrew Scheer rises in the House of Commons in Ottawa on Monday, Dec. 11, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld



OTTAWA — If money equals momentum, the federal Conservatives appear to be chugging along with a strong head of steam heading into next year’s federal election.

New fundraising numbers show the Tories raked in nearly twice as much cash as the Liberals during the first three months of 2018 en route to one of the best first quarters by a federal party in a non-election year.

The Conservatives raised more than $6 million from 40,000 donors between January and March, far outpacing the 29,000 donors who gave $3.3 million to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

The federal New Democrats came a distant third with nearly $1.4 million raised from 16,000 donors followed by the Greens at $533,000 from 7,393 donors.

The Bloc Quebecois, which is in disarray under embattled leader Martine Ouellet, reported having raised only $101,000 from fewer than 1,000 donors.


While money is essential for a modern political campaign, fundraising numbers are also seen as a rough way to gauge how much support a political party enjoys.

The latest figures come as some polls have suggested the Liberals are in a mid-mandate slump, thanks in part to Trudeau’s disastrous trip to India, anger over the Kinder Morgan pipeline and steep deficit spending.

“My guess is the Conservative party was able to tap into the public mood of frustration that was evident in the polls during the first quarter of 2018,” said political strategist Tim Powers, vice-chairman of Summa Strategies.

The result also represents good news for Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, who took the helm last May and has now posted two strong quarters on the fundraising front, though the party is still off its record in terms of total donors.

The Tories reported nearly 42,500 donors in the first quarter of 2017, which remains the high-water mark since the Conservatives’ election defeat in October 2015.

Not that it was all bad news for the Liberals, as the $3.3 million raised by governing party between January and March represented a $500,000 increase from the same period last year.

The party also saw consistent growth from one quarter to the next through all of last year, unlike the Conservatives who saw a strong start and finish to 2017 with declines in the middle. The Tories still raised more than the Liberals during those quarters despite the declines.

But one cause for concern among Liberals, aside from the fact the Conservatives continue to raise more money, is the fact that there were fewer donors during the last quarter than at any point in the last three years.

Liberal spokesman Braeden Caley played down such worries, saying the donor numbers were consistent with where the party sat at the same time leading up to the 2015 federal election.

“And we’re encouraged to see further growth from last year’s (first quarter) after being the only party to see growth in fundraising support from one quarter to the next throughout 2017,” he added.

Federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, meanwhile, appears to have stopped his party’s slide into fundraising purgatory as the $1.4 million raised between January and March was $450,000 more than the same period last year.

It was the third straight quarter in which the NDP raised more than $1 million.

The party similarly saw more donors, with more than 16,000 people having contributed during the first quarter of 2018 compared with nearly 13,500 last year, the same number as in early 2016.

Yet former NDP national director Karl Belanger said the party has a long way to go before it catches the Conservatives and Liberals, a task made all the more important with the looming election and the party’s $3 million debt from the last election.

“This is a good sign. Turning things around is important and the fact they’re going up and in the right direction is encouraging,” Belanger said. “But there’s still a lot of work to do if they want to compete for government in 2019.”


http://canoe.com/news/national.....undraising
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will take that as a signal that the LPCs internal polling mirrors what we are seeing in general with the gap between them and the CPC closing.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But slowly ... it's gone from 39.5% to -- according to Nanos, it has slipped to 39% with the Conservatives holding steady at 31%. OK, OK, it's Nanos. I agree, it seems to me that Trudeau's bubble has popped, but it's hardly registering in the 'average of polls' that seem to be taken as more accurate than any individual poll.

The polling that is taking place now isn't about overall stats -- the "headline stats" are for show. The $dough is in monitoring the key groups, however identified. We used to use 'education' as a stand-in for social class, but now, there may be 6-8 demographically defined groups -- like people starting families, or seniors with pensions. They make decisions on the basis of that.

The trouble with polls is that they distort as much as they clarify. They give a feeling of having more control than is justified. The encourage a kind of passivity and a dependence on advertising. The polls seem to have our present leader convinced that all he has to do is ... nothing, and the Liberals will fall apart spontaneously when confronted with his wonderfulness. Someone should tell him that Justin's paying a lot of mothers $6500 a year/kid, depending the age of the child. That means there's a lot of single women out there who think that Justin Trudeau is the best thing since President's Choice.
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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polling is hardly a firm science;
There are so many factors that come into play that taking any polling at face value as a reflect of how things are is a buyer beware situation.

However, the LPC is acting as though they are not expecting another coronation next year;

You don't change election rules you benefited from in the past out of the goodness of your own heart, you do so if you think they are going benefit the other guys more.

As an example; The Ontario Liberals had no issues with the way election and campaigning were run in the past till a year ago when they decided the system needed an overhaul.

They didn't make that change for the benefit of peoplekind.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But polling is the reason that queenmandy feels that Scheer is on track to become PM ... that's the feeling I am talking about. It encourages people to see the report on other things as if there is a change in guard coming up, no worries, just Keep stoned and carry on. It keeps people passive.

If we could get queenmandy on a different narrative -- say that these Liberals are taking the government seriously off track, and the thought of six more years is enough to spur Conservatives to radical action now?

I don't mean to pick on queenmandy, he's a convenient example. My point is that polling is campaigning. It's a part of marketing. A lot of people don't make up their minds so much as go along with their crowd. If everyone thinks that you have to be a heretic, for instance, if you are sceptical about climate change, then individuals will strongly tend to support the majority just because it is in the majority. And many who do not will keep their opinions to themselves.

Why were the Democrats so surprised when Hillary failed her big test? It's because they all believed she was the only choice! And why did the all believe it? Because everybody (but the deplorables) believed everyone believed it!

They called her the most qualified candidate ever! And a lot of them genuinely believed it. It wasn't just a pose. And yet, it looks more and more as if she is at the centre of a crime family.

Polls do a lot to create feelings that affect electoral behaviour. It's the manipulators who often fund them. Polls are fundamentally tools used to control public opinion -- not to report on it from 30,000 feet as they pretend.

My bigger point is about campaign style. My feeling is that Conservatives must do what they can to get around the bias embedded in the media. We are in a cycle where the Left gives away the store, and Conservatives have to put it in order again, whereupon the the left takes over again, to run it into the ground again.

Is that not the history of Ontario since Bill Davis left? Conservatives have to stop that cycle.

It seems to me that we need to go back to a stable government, even if we have to sacrifice turnover -- what this means is a poltiical machine capable of keepng power. Or better, an agreement amongst all the parties, about a long-range plan to develop a new and different future for Ontario. Fat chance!

History says our task ought to be to make the welfare state sustainable and its services valuable. It means we have to consolidate! The tempo of world economics require it.

We have to start making things (industry) again, not just using debt to buy things. We need to get on the cutting edge of something big, on a world scale. Sweden has Volvo. Ontario needs some kind of Volvo.

We have to understand that we are right in the middle of old industrial America, and there's potential there.

Big changes involve jolts and pain for some sector. How do we share the pain?

Why do we have the political discussion we do? It's because of the media, and the way the parties accommodate the media. The keep the real issues out of politics. That's how i see it. Fear keeps us locked in this BS.
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