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RCO





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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 6:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( its not really a surprise that the numbers are back to being closer than the big leads a few polls gave the cpc over the liberals a few months back )


May 4, 2018 6:01 am

Liberals gain more public approval as memory of India trip fades: Ipsos poll

By Rebecca Joseph National Online Journalist, Breaking News Global News


WATCH: A new poll by Ipsos shows the Liberals gaining ground as controversy surrounding Justin Trudeau's India trip fades from memory, with them holding 36 per cent approval, up five points since March.


Public opinion of the Liberals is up, putting them back on par with the Tories, according to a new Ipsos poll.

The poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, showed that 36 per cent of respondents would vote Liberal if a federal election were held tomorrow — that’s up five points from late March.


At the same time — Conservatives have dropped three points with 35 per cent of respondents of the national popular vote, a virtual tie with the Liberals.

The NDP also fell three points to 20 per cent while the Bloc and Green Party are holding steady at three and six per cent respectively.

Pollster Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News the Liberals have been recovering from recent controversies, including Justin Trudeau’s India trip. The public opinion of them is rising.


“It’s the fact that they haven’t been in the news in the same negative way they were around the trips to India, so we’ve kind of gone back to a reset,” Bricker explained.


But he said they weren’t back up to their highest approval rating, instead, they’ve just come back to tie with the Conservatives.

That’s also significant, Bricker explained, because Tory Leader Andrew Sheer isn’t as recognizable as Trudeau.



“But even that is, you know, interesting because hardly anybody knows the leader of the Opposition,” he said.

It all culminates to mean that the next election will be a tight one.

The largest battlefield remains in Ontario where the Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck, with 39 per cent and 38 per cent of the vote respectively.

This Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News was an online survey of 1,907 Canadians conducted between April 24 and 30, 2018. The results were weighted to better reflect the composition of the adult Canadian population, according to census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4186049/liberals-gain-more-public-approval-as-memory-of-india-trip-fades-poll/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

After the India trip there was going to be polling blow-back;
It was the most disastrous trip a Canadian head of State has had abroad in my lifetime.

The Ontario numbers stay close are a good sign;

The Liberals appear to be slow walking Marijuana legislation which leads me to believe they are hoping to get another election cycle out of this, which could signal they are concerned about being reduced to a minority in the next cycle and need something to get people lining up at the polls for them.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the forum poll continues to show crazy high cpc numbers , although not sure I believe there at 46% nationwide although I thinks its clear the liberals are struggling to hold there 2015 numbers )



Federal Conservatives would form government if election held today: Poll


Kevin Connor




Published:
May 21, 2018


Updated:
May 21, 2018 4:23 PM EDT


Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ›
News ›
Toronto & GTA ›


Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is pictured earlier this year in the House of Commons. (THE CANADIAN PRESS



If a federal election was held today, the Conservatives would roll over the Liberals to form a government, according to a Forum Research poll.

Forum found 46% of voters would cast ballots for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberals could only count on the support of 30% of the electorate. Only 18% of respondents said they would vote for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP party.

“The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“The prime minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now that could account for the lack of support for his party.”

Trudeau has faced criticism following a long list of gaffes.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (File Photo)

On a recent official trip to India, a Sikh extremist convicted of the attempted murder of an Indian politician was extended an invitation to dinner with Trudeau at the Canadian High Commissioner’s residence in New Delhi. The Trudeau government has also gone to court to fight Canadian veterans over benefits and has said they are asking for too much.

The Trudeau Liberals triggered outrage when they issued an apology and handed a $10.5-million settlement to convicted al-Qaida terrorist Omar Khadr.

Such examples may explain why Trudeau’s disapproval rating is up to more than 50% of those polled.

Half of the respondents who said they would vote for the Conservatives were male, between 45-65, and they earned $60,000-$80,000.

One-third of those who said they would cast a ballot for the Liberals held a college or university degree and most were from the Atlantic provinces. One-third of the NDP supporters were under 34 and lower-income earners.

The survey projects the Conservatives would have a majority government, but the poll isn’t designed to predict a future outcome — only an opinion at one point in time.

“Actual results depend on the parties’ ability to get their voters out,” according to Forum.

The next federal election is Oct. 2019.

The telephone poll — conducted May 15-16– randomly selected 1,484 voters. The results are considered accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.


http://torontosun.com/news/loc.....today-poll
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The poll is interesting because the numbers are actually not that far out of line with the regions I would suspect would move LPC to CPC.

The LPCs massive lead in Atlantic Canada has shrunk;
Shrunk to a level where the Tories could find themselves re-securing around 5 - 6 of their old stronghold seats in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

In Quebec the NDP seems stuck in the mid teens and the BQ is now in the MoE of the GPC.
It appears to be shaping up to be a two horse race in Quebec and while both the LPC and CPC are within the MoE of each other that actually is good for the CPC as the LPC number is likely buoyed by a massive level of support in Montreal and the Surrounding Region.

Ontario seems like less of a battle ground than other polls;
However even if we assume the CPC is tied around 38 - 40% its still around 50 seats.

Western Canada has been trending in this direction for a while;
The lowest hanging fruit for the CPC is adding 20x seats West of Ontario.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This makes me so frustrated. It's like you exist in the cockpit of the USS Enterprise, reading the charts and obeying the Prime Directive ... do not get involved.

We are watching a bright and shiny new government turn into a tawdry, thread-bare band of excuse-makers. They will, increasingly, spend money to buy votes, and try to solve every problem with money raised by debt. We've had a preview of this movie in Ontario. The problem is -- it's apt to work.

We're pretty sure we know how this story ends. In other words, it's a lot more like an emergency that waiting for the decay to take its course. We need some high energy performances. We need to put a historic offer on the table.

There's a certain theme, out in fly-over country ... about a country set up by geniuses but run by idiots ... it comes to mind.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Don Martin: Slow and steady Scheer starting to win the race
Dpn Martin, CTV News
Published Thursday, May 24, 2018 5:52PM EDT

It didn't seem a fair fight at first, a boy-faced Saskatchewan career politician who is the son of a librarian up against the rainbow knight astride his silver unicorn and shielded by a prime ministerial family pedigree.

But after a year of Andrew Scheer, the rookie Conservative leader has not been jousted into the realm of ridicule by a star-powered prime minister trying to remake the world in his progressive image.

If anything, the ridiculing has gone into reverse thrust with Justin Trudeau on the losing end of most clashes against his official parliamentary nemesis.

Mind you, Scheer could still walk around Parliament Hill wearing a sandwich board fundraising for the Conservative party without being recognized as the Official Opposition Leader by the tourist throngs.

But with the 500-day countdown to election 2019 about to begin, the 39-year-old Scheer has beaten most expectations by proving himself surprising effective in the leadership.

He's managed to neutralize the bitterness of defeated rivals, including the gagging of Maxime Bernier and cancellation of his tell-all book.

He either got lucky or quietly stage-managed it, but Scheer has shaken two problem MPs: Brad Trost and Kellie Leitch off the Conservative ballot for 2019.

And when he's been handed gold by way of Liberal controversy, Scheer hasn't squandered it.

Be it Finance Minister Bill Morneau's ethical lapses or incendiary business tax reforms to carbon pricing cover-ups or the Trudeau debacle in Delhi, Scheer and his impressive front line of senior critics have brought a hail of deadly derision down upon the government side of the House.

If there's a criticism from within, it's that he listens to the strident hard-right voices in his ranks, including regularly connecting with former prime minister Stephen Harper, and is slightly deaf to the moderates. Yet his social conservative roots have yet to show themselves in public.

To even contemplate a Conservative comeback over the global rapture-receiving Trudeau a year ago was the Scheer audacity of hope over the reality of nope.

But with the Liberals self-inflicting themselves with scandal, mired in pipeline politics and tangled up in Trump trade trouble, the Trudeau rainbow has faded to grey and his unicorn is limping. Incredibly, that has given way to a librarian's son starting to shine politically and riding high in the polls.

And that's the Last Word.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-slow-and-steady-scheer-starting-to-win-the-race-1.3944185


This is, to me, an interesting column. Journalists at this level, you should understand, know more than they publish. Martin at least hangs around with journalists and like-minded, involved people. They turn the spotlight on who their bosses -- the senior editors -- agree to.

I think his crowd has lost faith in Justin and his government. It's way worse than Harper. Harper was at least competent. Justin's government is no more transparent and shows a coziness with big-money players that spells trouble. Trudeau has become, as world leaders go, an embarrassment. Is the spending out of control, a la Dalton McGuinty, or is it out of control a la Kathleen Wynne?

More than that, I think they see the dithering. Having to wait until the focus group daa is in before making a statement ... even then, not having a plan B for anything. They see the provinces bickering.

But article admits that a year ago they were ridiculing Andrew Scheer. The best thing he can say is that when the Liberals were making asses of themselves, he didn't squander his opportunities. The column says, in effect, the spotlight is on Andrew because he's the only alternative.

We're going for mere competence. Once it was an expectation, now its a goal.

We have a crisis of leadership in this country ... at least in the English-speaking part of it. Singh is turning into a narrow ethnic politician blowing in the wind, and Justin is disintegrating into pixels. And of all the Seven Dwarfs to choose from, we end up with Sleepy as our leader?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Ontario election rattling federal Grits’ confidence, cockiness, say some Liberals
By ABBAS RANA MAY. 28, 2018

The outcome of the June 7 Ontario provincial election has ‘no bearing’ on next year’s federal election, says Liberal MP Raj Grewal.

The prospect of the provincial Liberals losing the Ontario election is making some federal Liberal MPs nervous. Polls last week showed that both NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, left, and the PC Leader Doug Ford have been doing well with the voters, and either of the two could become the premier. According to political insiders and polling numbers, Kathleen Wynne's Liberals are expected to lose this election. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade and Sam Garcia
The federal Liberals are watching the Ontario provincial election with “great interest” and the possibility of a Conservative or an NDP win is making them nervous because the same scenario could be repeated federally in 2019, say some Liberals, while others say every election is different and the June 7 outcome would have “no bearing” on next year’s federal election.

“All of a sudden that confidence and cockiness is gone, fear starts to creep in,” one former senior Liberal said in a not-for-attribution interview with The Hill Times last week.

In interviews last week, some former senior Liberals and some Liberal MPs told The Hill Times that they were feeling “nervous,” not only because the Liberal support was hitting rock bottom provincially, but also because the federal polling numbers were heading in the wrong direction for them too.

According to a Forum Research poll last week, the Conservatives, headed by Andrew Scheer (Regina-Qu’Appelle, Sask.), had the support of 46 per cent of the voters, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) Liberals had 30 per cent and the New Democrats, headed by Jagmeet Singh, had the support of 18 per cent of Canadians. The interactive voice response telephone poll of 1,484 Canadians was conducted on May 15-16 and had the margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A rolling poll released by Nanos Research last week showed the federal Liberal support at 35.1 per cent, the Conservatives at 33.9 per cent and the NDP support was at 20.1 per cent.

An Innovative Research Group online poll of 1,500 Canadians, conducted between May 7 to May 14, indicated that 32 per cent of Canadians were supporting the Conservatives, 30 per cent Liberals, and 13 per cent the NDP.

And a telephone poll of 1,000 Canadians between April 12 to May 2 by Innovative Research showed 29 per cent support for the Conservatives, 27 for the Liberals and 13 per cent for the NDP. The telephone poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent points.
https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/05/28/twists-turns-ontario-election-sudden-confidence-cockiness-gone-fear-starts-creep-federal-liberals-say-liberals-opposition-mps/145276
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
This makes me so frustrated. It's like you exist in the cockpit of the USS Enterprise, reading the charts and obeying the Prime Directive ... do not get involved.


You are frustrated because a poll which was released was commented on?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:
This makes me so frustrated. It's like you exist in the cockpit of the USS Enterprise, reading the charts and obeying the Prime Directive ... do not get involved.


You are frustrated because a poll which was released was commented on?


Not at all. Your comments are very astute and informed. But what underlies it is the feeling that elections are won by television ads, etc, top-down, and what follows from that. It's the idea that success is determined by the ad agency that handles and books your ads.

I want our candidate to get into the fray, to start defining issues, instead of waiting for the disenchantment grow, perhaps like in Ontario, through four terms ... I feel the opposition parties have a duty to make the political process work by finding and exposing bad policy decisions and to mobilize the public.

Anyway, excuse me for involving you in that. I am reacting to the idea that the polls ought to be the pole-star of our strategy, rather than a tool that serves another strategy. It's another way of saying that the Conservative Party has to be about something.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:
This makes me so frustrated. It's like you exist in the cockpit of the USS Enterprise, reading the charts and obeying the Prime Directive ... do not get involved.


You are frustrated because a poll which was released was commented on?


Not at all. Your comments are very astute and informed. But what underlies it is the feeling that elections are won by television ads, etc, top-down, and what follows from that. It's the idea that success is determined by the ad agency that handles and books your ads.

I want our candidate to get into the fray, to start defining issues, instead of waiting for the disenchantment grow, perhaps like in Ontario, through four terms ... I feel the opposition parties have a duty to make the political process work by finding and exposing bad policy decisions and to mobilize the public.

Anyway, excuse me for involving you in that. I am reacting to the idea that the polls ought to be the pole-star of our strategy, rather than a tool that serves another strategy. It's another way of saying that the Conservative Party has to be about something.


I am with you.

I am tired of Conservatives being cagey about promising to cut taxes for job creators, almost apologizing for returning money to those who pay the most in taxes.

I am tired of Conservatives being sheepish in the face of the logic the Liberals and NDP are selling that having a deficit during record revenue is business as usual and good fiscal management.

I am tired of Conservatives allowing this utter non-sense of "Our Debt to GDP means we can afford the debt" to be spewed without just smacking the shit out that ridiculous argument with even the most base understanding of how long term debt works.

I am tired of the status quo and these elections becoming about electing a prom king / queen rather than a competent leader with competent policy.

I am tired of the masses not realizing that despite the last guys best efforts the majority of our goods go to the US and this current government has done nothing to reduce that reliance but lots to make us look like a clown show to our greatest economic ally

The Conservatives (All not just the Feds) need to watch videos of Jason Kenney being utterly unapologetic for being Conservative and be reminded why we become Conservatives in the first place.

With all that said;

Disenchantment helps.
You and I have debated over Quebec for as long as you and I have been debating issues.

You felt that they needed a better deal;
I felt they were political mercenaries who needed to be bought off and in the process alienate Ontario and Western Canada.

But now they are unhappy (at least that's what polling states) and now I am largely in line with lets see what we can do with this.

You need voters who want change (Disenchantment) but you need to offer them a reason to change toward you (Policy)

The former is present and while we are seeing the beginnings of the latter I do agree that we are not there yet.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( you know its bad when Nanos actually has the liberals behind the conservatives )


For the first time since 2015, Nanos ballot tracking has the federal Conservatives pulling ahead of the Liberals.




Rachel Aiello, Ottawa News Bureau Online Producer

@rachaiello
.
Published Monday, May 28, 2018 5:45PM EDT


OTTAWA – For the first time since 2015, the Nanos federal ballot tracking has the federal Conservative party in the lead.

According to the latest national ballot support which asks Canadians who they'd consider voting for federally:
• 36 per cent of respondents said the Conservative Party;
• 33 per cent said they support the Liberals; and
• 19.8 per cent said they would back the NDP.


The ballot tracking has the Green Party at 6.4 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 4 per cent.


The results, which are to be published Tuesday, were released exclusively to CTV’s Power Play in advance.

"Hypothetically if there was an election held today we could be looking at a Conservative minority government, and not good news, I would say, for the Liberals," said pollster Nik Nanos on CTV’s Power Play.

Nanos, who is the founder of Nanos Research, said the reasons for the shift putting the Tories on top is fatigue with the current federal government, and the impacts some regions of the country are having on the federal fortunes.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are polling higher than the Liberals and the NDP.

"When the numbers start turning in Ontario, because it is the biggest part of the subsample, they move the national numbers," said Nanos.

In Ontario
• Liberal 33.3
• Conservative 41.4
• NDP 21.4

"What we've seen is, coincidentally with the provincial election, the Liberal numbers going down... When people hear the word 'Liberal' in Ontario, they’re not thinking positive thoughts," Nanos said. "I think the Liberals have to hope that this phenomenon in Ontario is a short-term thing fiercely related to the provincial election."

Amid the ongoing uncertainty around the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, Liberal support is the lowest in the prairies, where they are doing worse than both the Conservatives and the NDP.

"It's a lock," Nanos said of the Conservative stronghold in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

This boost to the Conservatives comes despite the Liberal government’s backing of Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley in the push for the Trans Mountain project to get built.

In the Prairies:
• Liberal 18.1
• Conservative 53.1
• NDP 19.5

As for British Columbia, the Conservatives are tied for support with the Liberals, and both are doing better than the NDP, which is federally onside with B.C. NDP Premier.

In British Columbia
• Liberal 33
• Conservative 33
• NDP 16.3

"It speaks to British Columbia being in play. It’s like that confluence of pipeline politics and the environment and the Liberals getting squeezed and people getting grumpy on that front," Nanos said.

For Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, who is celebrating his one-year anniversary of leading the party, now is the time to try to capitalize, Nanos said.

"For Andrew Scheer this is an opportunity. He’s got to nail the Liberal brand in Ontario and try to kind of spread the provincial malaise up to the federal level in order to consolidate some of the Conservative gains that are looking to happen right now," said Nanos.

The survey was conducted between May 20 and May 25, using a national random landline and cellphone survey of 1,000 adult Canadians. The margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/tories-top-liberals-in-latest-nanos-federal-ballot-tracking-1.3948961
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course Nik doesn't give me the Quebec numbers which I really want!!!!!

While we tend to focus on Ontario and Quebec a lot there should be some attention paid to the regions West of Ontario.

The LPC rules with a 13 seat majority the CPC based on these numbers could make up 10 of these seats alone in BC then you have 18 in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba that are not presently CPC (5 in Alberta)

I think that the LPC marketing Scheer as Harper with a smile didn't exactly resonate as they expected. The CPC is still ranked high on Economy, Taxation, and Crime & Security, which may imply that some voters didn't dislike the way they government was being run to the same effect that they disliked Harper personally.

If there is one word I could use to describe Stephen Harper that even some in opposition may agree with its the word "competent" an association I think he would still likely win over the current Prime Minister.

The issue the Liberals have is that Atlantic Canada likely won't sweep red again and they now have a Western Canada problem which means they need growth and they are running out of urban and suburban regions to growth within.

The Liberal majority will rest largely on the shoulders of Rural Ontario and Rural Quebec and thus far its not looking that positive for that to occur.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heartened by your response, above.

I hope that Bernier is building an organization that is wider than his riding. The thing is, I think a lot of Quebecois feel they need some other protection if they give up the threat of splitting the country. It means coming to grips with the essential nature of Canada as the union of two peoples.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the new angus reid poll shows a significant boost in Trudeau's personal approval rating and has the liberals at 36% and cpc at 32 % ( there lowest in an angus reid poll since before 2017 ) and ndp also down at 16 % )



Canadians feeling confident, not cowed, post G7; prefer harder line in negotiations with Trump


Prime Minister’s approval sees double-digit jump after tête-à-tête with U.S. President


June 15, 2018 – In the week since a post-G7 escalation in rhetoric and diplomatic tension between the U.S. and Canada, a majority of Canadians appear to have warmed to their government’s handling of trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

A pair of new studies from the Angus Reid Institute – conducted before, during, and after the fractious G7 meeting – find strong support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (62% say he has handled his spat with Trump well) and for his government’s countervailing tariffs in retaliation to Trump’s on steel and aluminum (59% say this is the right approach to take).

Indeed, Canadians overwhelmingly favour taking a “hard” approach toward trade negotiations with the Trump administration going forward, with seven-in-ten (70%) preferring to risk further angering the President rather than taking a “soft” approach to try to win back and maintain his goodwill (30%).

The tougher tone on trade from south of the border is also proving to be a political boon for the Prime Minister. After a year of continually diminishing approval, Trudeau sees a 12-point jump since the last time ARI asked Canadians to assess his performance and has regained the endorsement of a majority of Canadians (52%) for the first time since last fall.

More Key Findings:
•Canadians overwhelmingly find Trump’s reaction to Trudeau’s statements about trade “inappropriate,” with 81 per cent saying he is acting erratically and damaging trust between allies
•Two-thirds of Canadians (65%) say they are concerned that these latest escalations between the U.S. and Canada will lead to an all-out trade war between the two nations
•Indeed, when asked whether the current public feud between the two countries is a sign of the “fundamental deterioration” of the Canada-U.S. relationship or something more fleeting, Canadians are divided: 51 per cent choose the former perspective and 49 per cent the latter
•The surge in Trudeau’s approval rating comes alongside an uptick in support for his Liberal Party. If a federal election were held tomorrow, 36 per cent of decided and leaning voters say they would cast ballots for the Liberals, up from 30 per cent the last time ARI asked



Trump as foil galvanizes support for PM

The G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec was relatively uneventful while leaders met and discussed issues of common concern this past weekend. That ended, however, when U.S. President Donald Trump boarded Air Force One.

While many observers in Canada and the United States found little provocative as they watched Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wrap up press conference for the G7, the president responded to Trudeau’s statement that Canada would “not be pushed around” via Twitter.



It is still too early to say what affect this disagreement will have on the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has seen little progress in recent months. That said, the impact for Trudeau domestically appears to be a positive one. After a year of criticism and downward trending approval ratings, the Prime Minister appears to have gotten a boost from last weekend’s events.

More than half of Canadians (52%) now say they approve of the PM, a 12-point increase since the Angus Reid Institute last asked in March, and the largest increase in Trudeau’s approval rating since he won the 2015 election:



As has been the case since he took office, Trudeau enjoys his highest levels of support from Canadians under the age of 35 (59% in this age group approve of him). In this survey, he also receives the approval of more than half of those ages 55 and older – an increase of nearly 20 percentage points since March – as seen in the following graph:

angus reid trudeau approval

The overall jump in the Prime Minister’s approval rating is mirrored by a corresponding decline in the number of people saying it is time for a change in the federal government. Those who say it is time for a change still outnumber those who don’t, but the trend has shifted this quarter in favour of the government:



The permanence of these gains won’t be known for some time. However, with just over one year to go until the 2019 federal election and as campaign strategies are undoubtedly being prepared, Trudeau’s Liberals have regained their lead over the opposition Conservatives in vote intention:



This is a marked-change from the institute’s analysis of vote intention in March, which showed the Conservatives holding a 10-point lead among decided and leaning voters.



Canadians want to play hardball

One of the aspects of public opinion that appears to be playing in Trudeau’s favour is a Canadian desire to stand up to Donald Trump. (Indeed, when the Angus Reid Institute asked recently what words Canadians would use to describe Trump, six-in-ten (61%) said they viewed him as a bully).

In fact, seven-in-ten Canadians (70%) say that when it comes to trade negotiations with the United States, they would like to see the Canadian government take a hard approach, standing up to Trump even at the risk of the consequences this may engender. The rest (30%) say the better part of valour would be to take a soft approach, being careful not to offend Trump and risk further hostility.

This split is fairly consistent across demographic groups, with solid majorities in all regions and age-groups preferring a hard approach (see comprehensive tables).

Canadians are more divided on this question along political lines, with only a small majority of past Conservative voters preferring a hard approach:



In addition to wanting their government to play hardball, Canadians express increasing confidence in its ability to do so.

In early 2017, When the Angus Reid Institute asked Canadians how confident they were in the ability of the Trudeau government to represent Canada’s national interests in future trade negotiations with the Trump administration, some six-in-ten (60%) expressed at least moderate confidence.

Today, that number has increased to seven-in-ten (70%), and the proportion saying they are “very confident” has more than doubled:



And, more than six-in-ten Canadians (62%) say Trudeau has been handling his public disagreement with Trump well. Those who don’t feel this way are more likely to say the PM has been “too weak” in his confrontation with the U.S. leader (29% say this) than to say he has been “too aggressive” (10%).

On the subject of tariffs, specifically, Canadians are similarly onside with Trudeau and his government’s approach. Some six-in-ten (59%) say Canada’s “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum is the right course of action, with the rest divided between feeling Canada has gone too far or not far enough:



Economic confidence holds, but trade war concerns abound

Amid the hullabaloo of the Trudeau-Trump exchange, Canadian economic confidence remains stable. At this point, stagnant NAFTA negotiations and new tariffs on aluminum and steel have so far not made a significant impact on the Canadian consciousness.

Confidence in the future of the Canadian economy is relatively unchanged from last quarter, with the largest number of respondents saying they expect to see no change:

trump trudeau twitter

One of the biggest concerns from observers watching the escalation of language recently is the possibility of a trade war. Royal Bank of Canada chief executive Dave McKay expressed concerns about the diminishing relationship and increased potential of retaliatory actions from both governments.

Asked whether or not the possibility of a trade war is a concern to them, three-in-ten Canadians are “very concerned” (29%) while another 36 per cent are “quite concerned”:

trump trudeau twitter

Most question Trump’s behaviour and motivation

The majority of Canadians are not fond of the current U.S. President. Since the 2016 election, the Angus Reid Institute has found a strong majority saying that their impression of the administration has been more negative than positive. After the G7 controversy, four-in-ten Canadians (42%) say they have a very negative impression of Trump and his White House, while one-quarter (23%) say more negative than positive:

trump trudeau twitter

Asked whether or not his behaviour during and after the G7 was appropriate, and grounded in the best interests of his country, or inappropriate and breaking trust with allies, Canadians largely express the latter. Men are three times more likely than women to take Trump’s side:



Trump’s decision to levy tariffs of 25 per cent on Canadians steel and 10 per cent on aluminum was reportedly based on the identification of Canada as a national security threat. Canada was not alone, as Mexico and the European Union were both also hit, triggering retaliation against the U.S. from all three.

Only one-in-five Canadians say they believe that the new tariffs will positively impact the U.S. economy, while three-times that amount say America will be hurt. An analysis from the C.D. Howe Institute suggests that both the U.S. and Canada will be negatively impacted.

trump trudeau twitter

And what about the threat of further actions from Trump as it relates to Canada? While the U.S. leader has been vocal about Justin Trudeau’s comments costing the country “a lot of money”, Canadians aren’t so sure the public threats are genuine. While four-in-ten say Trump is sincere (39%), and prepared to take further action against Canada, a slightly higher number say that this is all a negotiating tactic (44%), and they don’t believe additional measures are being prepared:

trump trudeau twitter

A new normal for Canada-U.S. relations?

Canada has had an historically close relationship with the United States – despite what President Trump has stated about the country burning down the White House during the War of 1812 (Canada wasn’t a nation yet). Thus, the dispute between the two allies has confused many people on both sides of the border. Many Americans took to Twitter with the hashtag #ThanksCanada, which trended after the Trump’s initial attack on Trudeau.

There is an air of uncertainty in Canada about what all of this means for the future. Canadians are divided into two camps, those who say this is just a passing phase (49%), and those who think this is a fundamental shift in the way the two countries relate (51%), with more contention ahead. Notably, Conservatives are much less convinced that this spat will lead to any long term changes:

trump trudeau twitter

Canadian appreciation for NAFTA continues to grow

Last year, with NAFTA renegotiations turning tense, Canadians discovered a renewed appreciation for their largest trade agreement. This is a trend that continues to intensify. In two years, the number of Canadians saying NAFTA has been a benefit to Canada has more than doubled, from 26 per cent to 56 per cent:





During negotiations, Trump and his team have repeatedly expressed interest in nixing NAFTA in favour of bilateral deals between their nation and each of Canada and Mexico. This is something that Ottawa has rejected outright. For their part, Canadians tend to agree with their elected leadership. Just over half say that Canada and Mexico should stick together to pursue a trilateral solution, while three-in-ten (29%), including a larger group of past Conservative voters (38%), say that they would be interested in one-on-one negotiations.



With all this in mind, it is perhaps notable that the number of residents saying that they expect a better deal for Canada if NAFTA is renegotiated has doubled since February of 2017. That said, those who expect a worse deal still outnumber the optimists:


http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-june2018/
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is to be expected, and even applauded. The question is being 'framed' as those damned Yanks are screwing around with us again -- time to drop the gloves. It's a good reaction if that were the actual situation.

But it isn't. The actual situation is that we are being asked to re-jig the older agreement in a minor way. Presenting it in the form it's being presented is manipulative.

As this goes on, this will change. In the process of negotiations, it's entirely likely that we will have to experience what the world would look like when Trudeau starts the trade war.

When the layoffs begin, the resentment will grow. We will be lashed up into a fury, perhaps, and nationalism will become the flavour of the day. And there is no other side. There is no chance that the Liberals, noting this reaction, will be encouraged down the smart course.

And then the public mood will change.

Think on this -- the PM of Japan has had several visits to Trump, and something is being quietly worked out. China has already offered to direct $200 billion in spending to the US, for example.

But f*ck that -- we won't be pushed around!

And your glorious leader is saying "Me too!" So the public will never hear of an alternative. And Canadian conservatism will, once again, reveal itself to be a hollow vessel with no real principles.
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