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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:
The problem -- or is it a problem? -- is that this election will become a second referendum on Brexit. That is double-edged. On the one hand, if she loses, it would likely scupper Britain's attempt to free itself from the declining EU; on the other, if she wins it, it

I think in Scotland this will be the case;
If the SNP holds nearly all of Scotland's seats as they secure in 2015, It gives Nicola Sturgeon the mandate and the momentum to seek another referendum on separating from the UK and staying in the EU.

For the rest of the UK;
With Article 50 triggered there isn't much you can do now. They are leaving the EU in two years, the only thing to discuss is terms.

The Legal debate about of that bell can be unrung is such a mess it would seemingly be easier to leave, then re-apply.

The election is really about who you want negotiating the exit;
May or Corbyn.

Don't get me wrong, with any election there are risks
But you have a unique situation here where a good portion of the Labour Party would sooner lose and lose big just to dump Corbyn.

The Conservatives also have to worry less about UKIP taking votes from the right, as their sole reason for being is largely already in place.

It certainly early;
But I wouldn't be shocked to see the Tories secure 400 seats and the LibDems to be surprisingly close to the Labour Party in seats because Tim Farron is going to run pro EU better than anyone else.

All your points are good ones. Particularly the one about the Scotch.

Ms May is shrewd politically. She has probably guessed right.

I don't know about Labour but Corbyn seems an unusually prickly guy. Definitely has a nasty edge, coupled with a red-book orthodoxy that probably more old Labour than Mao -- that is, the Labour party before Tony Blair.

You can say this about British Labour ... they like their leaders to be churlish.

It's pretty hard, from this distance, to understand his political sex appeal -- outside of Scotland, of course.

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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( according to this article I saw online there are 13 labour mp's not running this election , definitely a high number for an opposition party , although some of the seats are so safe there is little chance they'll lose them )

Updated: The winners, runners and riders for the vacancies in 13 Labour seats

28th April, 2017 12:00 pm

Peter Edwards

Labour officials are this week interviewing candidates for a host of winnable or safe seats. The resignation of a series of respected MPs, including former home secretary Alan Johnson, has prompted an intense – and quick – competition.

Activists in constituency Labour parties (CLPs) will not be able to choose their own candidate because of the timetable imposed under the “exceptional selections procedure”.

Instead members of Labour’s regional boards and representatives from the ruling national executive will appoint candidates by Friday.

The vacancies, and possible contenders to replace them, are as follows:

Retiring MP: Graham Allen, Nottingham North
Possible contenders: Nottingham councillor and GMB and Co-op Party activist Alex Norris.
Selected: Alex Norris.

Retiring MP: Dave Anderson, Blaydon
Possible contenders: North East MEP and former councillor Paul Brannen; Unison official Mark Ferguson.
Selected: Liz Twist, Gateshead councillor.

Retiring MP: Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Possible contenders: TBC.
Selected: Tracy Harvey, a local councillor.

Retiring MP: Andy Burnham, Leigh
Possible contenders: Wigan councillor Jo Platt; Corbyn aide and ex-MP Katy Clark; NPF rep and former Bury North candidate James Frith, equality campaigner and former PPC Emily Brothers.
Selected: To be announced today.

Retiring MP: Jim Dowd, Lewisham West and Penge
Possible contenders: London Labour vice chair Ellie Reeves; former Richmond Park candidate Christian Wolmar; and entrepreneur Ibrahim Dogus among many others.
Selected: Ellie Reeves.

Retiring MP: Michael Dugher, Barnsley East
Possible contenders: GMB official and former PPC Steph Peacock; Yorkshire and Humber MEP Linda McAvan.
Selected: Steph Peacock.

Retiring MP: Pat Glass, North West Durham
Possible contenders: Northumberland county councillor and Unite member Laura Pidcock.
Selected: Laura Pidcock.

Retiring MP: Alan Johnson, Hull West and Hessle
Possible contenders: Momentum activist and TSSA officer Sam Tarry; Unite member and NPF rep Emma Hardy; and former Corbyn speechwriter David Prescott.
Selected: Emma Hardy.

Retiring MP: Fiona Mactaggart, Slough
Possible contenders: Jayne Lim, a doctor and vice-chair of Chinese for Labour.

Retiring MP: Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West
Possible contenders: Kamaljeet Jandu, GMB national equality officer.
Selected: TBC

Retiring MP: Andrew Smith, Oxford East
Possible contenders: south-east England MEP Anneliese Dodds.
Selected: Anneliese Dodds.

Retiring MP: Gisela Stuart, Birmingham Edgbaston
Possible contenders: West Midlands MEP Neena Gill.
Selected: Preet kaur Gill, a Sandwell council cabinet member.

Retiring MP: Iain Wright, Hartlepool
Possible contenders: Alan Clark, a Hartlepool councillor; Mike Hill, a Unison regional organiser.
Selected: Mike Hill.


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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

British leader accuses EU officials of election interference

Jill Lawless

Wednesday, May 3rd, 2017

BRUSSELS – British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday accused European Union officials of trying to influence the U.K. elections, ratcheting up tensions with Brussels over her country’s departure from the bloc.

Just hours after the EU unveiled its plan for Brexit talks, which delays discussion on issues like trade that are so dear to Britain, May said that “the European Commission’s negotiating stance has hardened. Threats against Britain have been issued by European politicians and officials.”

“All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the result of the general election that will take place on 8 June,” she told reporters outside 10 Downing Street, in a speech aimed at rallying support for her Conservative Party ahead of next month’s polls.

May’s comments follow leaked comments in the British and European press suggesting the EU thinks Britain is not facing reality about the conditions of its EU exit and the complexity of the negotiations ahead.

“The events of the last few days have shown that – whatever our wishes, and however reasonable the positions of Europe’s other leaders – there are some in Brussels who do not want these talks to succeed,” she said.

The head of the EU’s executive Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, expressed regret that details of his private dinner with May last week had made the news.

A German news report said that Juncker left the meeting saying he was “10 times more skeptical than I was before” that negotiations will succeed. May dismissed the report as “Brussels gossip.”

May also vowed Tuesday to be a “bloody difficult woman” in Brexit talks.

Juncker said: “I have noted that she is a tough lady.”

Earlier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier insisted that Britain’s accounts must be settled before any talks on its future trade relationship with the EU can take place, as he warned that time is running out to seal a deal by 2019.

Unveiling the Commission’s negotiating mandate for Britain’s departure, Barnier said he was not hostile to Britain and the bloc did not want to punish it for leaving – but “we have to settle the account, not more not less.”

The amount London owes the EU has become one of the most contentious subjects in the Brexit process, with some reports estimating it could climb to as much as 100 billion euros ($109 billion) – a figure that Britain has flatly rejected paying.

U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis told ITV that Britain “will meet our international obligations,” but added: “We will not be paying 100 billion.”

Davis also dismissed reports the EU could bar May from Brexit discussions at future heads of state and government meetings.

This is the first time a member has ever left the EU, so these negotiations are taking the Europeans into uncharted waters. The process is unprecedented and complicated, and combined with fresh delays caused by the snap elections in Britain, is raising tensions between London and the 27 nations that will remain in the EU.

Barnier did not specify how much Britain should pay, but his negotiating mandate said it should cover budget payments, the cost of ending Britain’s membership of any EU institution including banks, and the bill for relocating any EU agencies on its territory. London must also pay in euros rather than pounds, meaning that it should bear the currency exchange costs.

The European Parliament’s Brexit point man, Guy Verhofstadt, also declined to go into numbers. He said the parties must first agree on the “accounting principles” from which the bill will be determined.

“We cannot ask to the 27 remaining members to pay the bill for the departure of a country,” he said. As in any divorce, he added, “you can’t just say ‘My partner will take all the burden.'”

Money aside, the top priority of the talks is how to handle the rights of some 3 million citizens from the 27 nations living in Britain and up to 2 million Britons residing on the continent. All face massive uncertainty on such issues as health benefits, pensions, taxes, employment and education.

Another key aim is to keep people and goods moving smoothly across the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and EU member Ireland.

Under the negotiating mandate, EU states would have to approve progress on these and other immediate exit issues before Barnier can start negotiating the outline of the bloc’s future relations with Britain after it leaves.

Some British politicians, including May, have said walking away would be better than a bad deal, and Barnier conceded that the EU has planned for such a contingency.

“We are prepared for all options,” he said. “But the option I am working on is getting an agreement.”

– Lawless reported from London. Danica Kirka in London also contributed.


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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( Corbyn is saying he'll stay on as Labour leader even if he loses the election )

Jeremy Corbyn Says He Won't Quit Even If He Loses The General Election

Exclusive: Speaking to BuzzFeed News in Tory-held Leamington Spa, an upbeat Corbyn said he would continue as Labour leader no matter what happens on 8 June.

Posted on May 8, 2017, at 4:33 p.m.

Jim Waterson
Jim Waterson
BuzzFeed UK Political Editor

Jeremy Corbyn is enjoying his first general election as Labour leader, and he wants to make something very clear: He intends to remain in the job, even if he isn't victorious in next month's vote.

"I was elected leader of this party and I’ll stay leader of this party," Corbyn told BuzzFeed News, taking a few minutes out from campaigning in the Warwickshire town of Leamington Spa.

No matter what happens on 8 June, he said, he would be "carrying on". And he insisted that the constant criticism and poor poll ratings were not getting to him. "Monsieur Zen is fine," he said.

On Monday, the Labour leader was, for a man the polls predict will face electoral disaster in a month's time, incredibly upbeat. Perhaps even more so than Ed Miliband during the 2015 general election, he seemed to be truly enjoying the experience of standing for election, addressing rallies, and learning bits of local history.

A suggestion by BuzzFeed News to conduct our interview in a park shelter – having already had to drive away from a nearby rally to escape dozens of people wanting selfies – begins with a short discussion about the vintage of a brass plaque marking a 1969 donation towards park funds.

"I love it, I’ve spent my life travelling the length and breadth of this country supporting people and I’m doing it all again," Corbyn said, referring to the election as a continuation of the last two Labour leadership campaigns. "This is the third summer running out on the road!"

After Corbyn's formal duties were finished for the day, he spent 10 minutes talking to people in the park, wishing a schoolgirl good luck with her exams and debating the relative benefits of various methods of long distance railway construction with a member of the public. His media handlers struggled to get him moving as he talked with people and took an interest in a retired guide dog now used for breeding purposes.

That the Labour leader was even in Leamington Spa five weeks before polling day could seem bizarre to anyone paying attention to the electoral map. In a contest where the opinion polls agree Labour is way behind and fighting a rearguard action to retain seats it holds, this is relatively deep in Conservative-held territory. The constituency of Warwick and Leamington was held by Labour under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown for years but now has a sizeable Tory majority.

In short, it's the sort of seat a political party would target if they were intent on forming the next government, rather than running a defensive campaign to prevent a Conservative onslaught. Miliband's former pollster even suggested Corbyn was being sent to such constituencies in order to keep him "busy away from places Labour wants to hold".

Corbyn dismissed this. “I’m serious about winning the election. I’m serious about going out there, I’ve been in Worcester and Leamington, I’ve been in Warrington, I’ve been in Croydon, I’m going all over the country on this because ours is an election to win. We’re fighting a campaign to win."

The party's manifesto is due to be released next week and Corbyn is reluctant to give away too many details. But he said it would deal with the three issues of "injustice, inequality, and opportunities". This means policies on housing, schools, apprenticeships, and pensions.

The lifelong Eurosceptic will pledge support for the Brexit process but pledge to negotiate a different type of deal with the EU to Theresa May.

Corbyn also appeared unconvinced by the new centrist French president-elect, Emmanuel Macron, despite writing to him about Brexit. Asked if Labour could learn from Macron's victory, Corbyn sketched out a different economic vision: "I think this is a time when we need to look the inequality in economic structures in society, and so I’m proposing an economic agenda which benefits the vast majority of people and does challenge inequality."

He also wants action on loneliness, especially among the elderly, in an attempt to create "that sense of cohesion in our society".

He said he was particularly worried about the fate of young people who missed out on life chances due to "a combination of poverty, bad housing, and underfunded schools".

Corbyn told BuzzFeed News he felt he didn't get treated fairly by the media: "I’m not going to spend my whole life complaining about it. I know what I believe in, I know what I do. I never respond to personal abuse of me, because I’d rather get my policies across. By not responding it forces the other side to engage with the policy debate."

As a result, he said, he urges supporters to try reading nontraditional sources of information.

"I think it’s good that people go to all the alternative sites and check out what they want," he said. "I’ve read The Canary quite a bit, I’ve read yours, I do read a lot of them."

How the media covers politics is increasingly becoming a core part of the 2017 general election narrative, with a focus on whether or not Theresa May is opening her events to the public, why Labour are not inviting some newspapers on the road, and the impact of a new group of alt-left pro-Corbyn media outlets.

"There is a slight danger with social media in that people end up being an echo chamber of themselves and self-select what they want to read because it’s something they largely agree with," Corbyn said. "Of course it’s good to read about things you’re interested in or by someone you particularly like but it’s also important to expose yourself to the arguments of others. So I urge people to read widely."

Curiously, he seemed deeply affected by a current plotline on EastEnders – "I watch it on catch-up" – featuring the character Bex Fowler, who is being bullied over the internet. The Labour leader appeared genuinely concerned by what it says about modern society.

"The problems of personal relations on social media is that the levels of bullying can become horrendous," he said. "She's [Bex] being bullied at school by her mates and she’s turning around in a good way and challenging them. The story is developing in a very, very interesting way.

"Well done to the BBC and EastEnders for dealing with the issue, because a soap opera can be a very powerful way of getting your message across on the effects on an individual and how another girl having her drinks spiked at a party and her friends – instead of helping her and supporting her – are taking pictures of her collapsing on the floor."

Some things have changed for Corbyn since the vote was called: As a potential future prime minister during an election period, he is now accompanied by plain clothes protection officers who drive him around in a convoy of Range Rovers. There's still time for selfies, but there's now a substantial number of staff who track him everywhere, nervously trying to keep to the proposed timetable with limited success.

He insisted he always found time to read about things other than politics during campaigns and was currently working through a 1908 dystopian novel called The Iron Heel by Jack London, which the Merriam-Webster Encyclopedia of Literature describes as a warning about fascist plutocrats who, "fearing the popularity of socialism", collude to "eliminate democracy and, with their secret police and military, terrorise the citizenry".

He also laughed at being told that the Conservatives had just sent out a press release branding him and shadow chancellor John McDonnell as the "Marx brothers".

"Marx is a standard text in most university economics courses and I urge anyone who’s serious about economics to read Marx but also to read Adam Smith, David Ricardo," he said. "Read other people! Read Varoufakis and what he went through in Greece! Read Joseph Stiglitz! Read around the subject – don’t always look for an echo chamber of yourself. How else do you learn how the world is?"

He has no major concerns about Russian interference in the election. "We’re all under threat from hackers all the time... Let’s not get paranoid about it". Nor is he troubled by personal attacks. "The only time it gets really nasty is when there’s abuse of my family or loved ones."

Regardless, it's hard to claim all is going to plan or that the election was called at a moment when Corbyn had neither strong personal popularity ratings or total control over his own party.

At an earlier campaign stop in Worcester – seen as the archetypal marginal seat a party of government must win – the cheery local candidate Joy Squires posed for pictures with Corbyn as he led a strong campaign rally which attracted hundreds of people outside the city's Queen Anne-era Guidhall.

Squires, slightly sheepishly, admitted she voted for Owen Smith in last year's Labour leadership election and wouldn't deny that the Labour leader is mentioned regularly in a negative manner on the doorstep. "I think that there are concerns that the Labour party has to be able to present itself as a party of government – but I am doing that on the doorstep every day."

How does the Labour leader cope with the substantial number of lifelong Labour voters who say they still like the party but won’t vote for Jeremy Corbyn?

“It doesn’t get to me at all," he said. "What I would say is that is about the party as a whole, the policies we’re putting forward as a whole, and the individual messenger is the person who’s doing their best to put those policies forward. I was elected leader of this party, I’m proud to do it, and I’ll carry on doing it.”

Instead, Corbyn's spending his time on the campaign trail imagining the people he believes he could help if he became prime minister: "I think of lots of people I know. I think of the homeless, those looking for a house, those in work where their skills are not properly recognised, I think of people trying to run a small business being ripped off by big business. I think of all those issues and try to encapsulate them into a coherent strategy."

And he has a message to the substantial anti-Corbyn Labour faction who still strongly oppose his project. "Listen guys," he said, "this is our chance to go and win."


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( this article tries to claim labour is up , however the conservatives are still at 45% , so not much has changed , rather low key election so far )

Labour gets highest rating yet in latest General Election poll

Default author image
Adam SmithThursday 18 May 2017 9:53 am

Labour gets highest rating yet in latest General Election poll
The polls have gradually been rising for the Labour party since the election campaign started (Picture: PA)

Labour has hit its highest poll rating since the General Election was called after launching its radical manifesto.

The Conservatives still have a big lead but Labour were up two points on 32 per cent, with the Tories down one on 45, a YouGov poll for The Times found.

Ballooning could be the next step in the battle against obesity, study shows»

The Liberal Democrats surged three points and are now on eight per cent, while Ukip were up one on six per cent.

The poll was taken as Labour’s manifesto launch, which included big spending promises and taxing the rich and businesses, dominated the news agenda.

There has been a gradual rise in Labour’s polling numbers since the start of the campaign.

However, the poll of polls – the average of many polls that are carried out – put the Tories on 47 and Labour on 31.

Labour gets highest rating yet in latest General Election poll
Jeremy Corbyn’s party is now 13 points behind the Tories (Picture: Reuters)

YouGov’s Anthony Wells said: ‘Labour seem to be holding up because they’re still getting the votes of a substantial chunk of people who don’t like Corbyn and are presumably holding their noses and voting Labour anyway.’

Polls show Labour is more trusted by voters on the NHS, education and housing, while the Conservatives do better concerning the economy, immigration, law and tax.

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/18/.....z4hQvL9giy

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

Jeremy Corbyn Says He Won't Quit Even If He Loses The General Election

Please Please be True.

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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 6:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

General Election campaigning suspended after Manchester Arena explosion

Two girls wrapped in thermal blankets stand near the Manchester Arena following the explosion Credit: Reuters

By Telegraph Reporters
23 May 2017 • 10:36am

Campaigning ahead of the General Election has been suspended in the wake of a suspected terrorist attack in Manchester.

Theresa May said the incident at Manchester Arena was being treated by police as an "appalling terrorist attack" while Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, described the incident as “barbaric”.

The Prime Minister will chair a meeting of the Government’s emergency Cobra committee on Tuesday morning at about 9am.

Mrs May said in a statement: "We are working to establish the full details of what is being treated by the police as an appalling terrorist attack.

"All our thoughts are with the victims and the families of those who have been affected."

Ms Rudd said the Manchester explosion was an attack on some of the "most vulnerable in our society".

She said the intention of the attack was to "sow fear" but stressed that it would not succeed.

In a statement, she said: "My thoughts and prayers go out to the families and the victims who have been affected, and I know the whole country will share that view.

"I'd like to pay tribute to the emergency services who have worked throughout the night professionally and effectively - they have done an excellent job.

"Later on this morning, I will be attending Cobra, chaired by the Prime Minister, to collect more information - to find out more - about this particular attack, and I can't comment any more on that at the moment.

"The public should remain alert but not alarmed. If they have anything to report, they should approach the police.

"But I have two further things to add. The great city of Manchester has been affected by terrorism before. Its spirit was not bowed; its community continued.

"This time it has been a particular attack on the most vulnerable in our society - its intention was to sow fear - its intention is to divide. But it will not succeed."

The events in Manchester have prompted the UK’s political parties to suspend General Election campaigning.

Mrs May had been due to visit the south west of England but the trip will not go ahead.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said the explosion in Manchester was a "terrible incident" and that his thoughts were with those affected.

He said: “I am horrified by the horrendous events in Manchester last night. My thoughts are with families and friends of those who have died and been injured.

“Today the whole country will grieve for the people who have lost their lives.

“I have spoken with Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester, who has fully briefed me on the operational response in the city.

“I would like to pay tribute to the emergency services for their bravery and professionalism in dealing with last night’s appalling events.

“I have spoken with the Prime Minister and we have agreed that that all national campaigning in the general election will be suspended until further notice.”

The SNP had been due to launch their election manifesto on Tuesday but that will not go ahead.

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister and SNP leader, said: “My thoughts are with the victims, their families and all those who have been affected by this barbaric attack in Manchester.

“The Scottish Government is working with Police Scotland and the UK Government to ensure that we have a full understanding of the developing situation. I will convene a meeting of the Scottish Government’s Resilience Committee this morning to receive an update and to consider any implications for Scotland.”

Tim Farron, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, cancelled a campaign visit to Gibraltar and said: “The country is united in grief after this devastating terror attack.

"Just as the country is focusing all its thoughts on the victims and their families, so politicians should come together in solidarity and respect for the innocent people caught up in this vile attack.

"The emergency services have shown the highest levels of bravery and professionalism and deserve our deepest thanks.

"The Liberal Democrats will suspend all national campaigning until further notice."

Paul Nuttall, Ukip leader, said: "Just woken to the terrible news in the heart of my constituency, Manchester. My prayers and thoughts are with those affected. Stay strong.

"In light of what's happened I have suspended the Ukip General Election campaign."

The Green Party has cancelled a planned poster launch as well as the launch of the party's Welsh manifesto.

Jonathan Bartley, the party's co-leader, said: "Our thoughts are with those affected by this appalling incident in Manchester. For young people to be targeted in this way is utterly atrocious.

"As ever our emergency services have done us proud - and we pay tribute to the police, firefighters and paramedics who stepped up in this time of need. Our country will never be divided by terror."


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( polling is supposedly getting much closer in the sleepy UK election , its hard to explain the reasons why ? but much of the labour support is from much younger voters )

General election: Labour close gap on Tories to six points, new poll shows

Labour put on 37 per cent, up three points on a week ago and six points behind the Tories

Gavin Cordon |
Tuesday 30 May 2017 10:30 BST|

Conservative sources have said they expect to fall behind Labour in polling before voters head to polling booths in June Getty

Labour continues to close the gap on the Conservatives as the parties head towards the General Election on 8 June, according to a new opinion poll.

The poll by Survation for ITV's Good Morning Britain (GMB) puts Labour on 37 per cent, up three points on a week ago and six points behind the Tories who are unchanged on 43 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent and Ukip on 4 per cent are both unchanged while the SNP are down one on 2 per cent and the Greens are also down one on 1 per cent.

While more than half, 53 per cent, said they believed Theresa May would make the best prime minister, support for Mr Corbyn is rising at 30 per cent, an increase of nine points since a GMB/Survation poll on May 5 and 6.

The findings come after a clutch of polls at the weekend showed Labour gaining ground with the Conservative lead down to single figures.

Survation interviewed 1,009 UK residents aged 18 and over by telephone on May 26 and 27.

The poll follows a separate survey by YouGov which found that ​Labour’s lead among voters under 50 is growing, marking an increasing generational divide ahead of the election.

The party is 57 points ahead of the Conservatives among voters under 25 years old, according to the poll, compared to 28 points shortly after the snap vote was called in April.

Across all the age groups, the survey for The Sunday Times showed Theresa May’s lead over Labour had fallen to seven points as she re-launched her election campaign.

While only 12 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they would vote Conservative, 69 per cent of them would opt to elect Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street, the poll showed.

Meanwhile, 44 per cent of 25-to 49-year-olds favoured Labour, compared to 34 per cent who would vote Tory. Mr Corbyn's 10-point lead among this age group was up from eight points in the first days after the election was announced.

Yet only 57 per cent of people in each young age group said they were absolutely certain to vote, compared to 66 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds and 75 per cent of over 60s.

The Tories have slid in the polls after Ms May U-turned on a controversial proposal for a "dementia tax".

Tory peer Lord Lord Francis Maude said the manifesto launch "hadn't been a brilliant success".

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The general advice would be that if you're starting an election campaign 20 points ahead in the polls then you should be incredibly bland and generic and not say anything that might possibly upset anyone."

He added: "It hasn't been a brilliant success, I think it's fair to say."


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

About That U.K. Election Poll

A YouGov poll’s prediction of a hung parliament following the June 8 election may not be all it seems.

Leon Neal / Reuters

Krishnadev Calamur
| 9:35 AM ET

Two months ago, when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called for snap general elections on June 8, she had many reasons to be optimistic: She was 21 points ahead in the polls, appeared to be best positioned to negotiate with the EU on Brexit, and the opposition Labour party was losing ground in its traditional strongholds. But as with any election, that 21-point gap began to narrow in the run-up to the vote. Still, the Conservatives were projected to retain their parliamentary majority—though by a narrower-than-expected margin. Then came Tuesday’s poll:

Which prompted this headline in The Times (of London):

The YouGov poll projected that no one political party would garner enough seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. It said the Conservatives would win 310 seats, down from 330 now; 326 seats are needed to form a government. Labour, the poll showed, would win 257 (up from 229 now). If the results hold true, it would mean the U.K.’s next government would almost certainly be a coalition—which would make the country’s negotiations with the EU on Brexit more complicated because of competing political interests. The poll had at least one immediate impact: the pound fell against the dollar (before rallying later in the day). As Bloomberg wrote:

The increased sensitivity to polls, no matter what their caveats, is redolent of the way the pound traded before the Brexit vote, when individual releases often caused large swings in the currency. While doubts over polling remain after a failure to predict the U.K.’s 2015 election result, the moves on Wednesday are emblematic of how the market has been shocked out of its pre-election complacency by mounting evidence that the race is getting tighter. Measures of expected volatility in sterling that cover the election are jumping, while last week’s drop against the dollar was the pound’s worst this year.

But the YouGov poll was based on a new polling model, and the results, which were published just days before the election, were described by U.K. media as “brave.” Doug Rivers, YouGov’s chief scientist, said the new model—Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP)—produces “estimates for small geographies.” Here’s more:

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party. Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.

But the model has limitations, Rivers acknowledged. He says it’s an estimate of voting intention, not a forecast of how people will actually vote. The samples in each constituency, he says, are too small to be reliable by themselves and are subject to more than just sampling error. To compensate for this, the model pools data across constituencies.

“While this has worked well in the past, models cannot produce estimates as accurate as a full scale poll in each constituency,” Rivers wrote.

While polls typically carry such caveats, Stephan Shakespeare, YouGov’s chief executive, said the poll numbers are a central projection that “allows for a wide range of error.” Shakespeare added: “The Tories could end up with as many as 345 and Labour as few as 223, leading to an increased Conservative majority.” The Times, in its analysis of the YouGov data, reports that the Conservatives could get as many as 345 seats and as few as 274.

Polling has had a mixed record in the U.K. and elsewhere. YouGov had predicted that Scotland would leave the U.K. in its 2014 referendum (it didn’t); that Labour and the Conservatives were tied ahead of the 2015 general election (the Conservatives won easily); and that Brexit would be a close call (Leave won 52-48). (But Rivers, YouGov’s chief scientist, said the MRP model, whose data weren’t published, showed Leave winning easily.)

Responding to the poll Wednesday, May said: “The only poll that matters is the one that’s going to take place on June 8, and then people will have a choice as to who they want to see as leader, who they want to see as prime minister taking this country forward in the future, me or Jeremy Corbyn.”

Britons will know in a week.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Labour to lose seats everywhere but London

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigns in Middlesbrough. Picture: Getty Images.
Lucy Fisher
The Times
7:35AM June 7, 2017

Labour is heading for a “nuclear winter” outside London as party activists north of the M25 brace for a dismal result in Thursday’s election, according to a report.

Analysis based on testimony from Labour officials, candidates and activists, who have seen thousands of canvass returns, concluded there was “a marked improvement in London but precious little to cheer about outside”.

The report by Labour Uncut, an influential grassroots blog, suggested that despite Labour’s surge in the polls in recent weeks, the party is preparing for wide-scale losses.

It noted a striking increase in Londoners indicating that they will vote Labour, with only a handful of constituencies, including Dagenham and Eltham, remaining “very difficult” for the party.

However, in the West Midlands, Yorkshire, the North West and North East any improvement in Labour’s support has been “nugatory”. The party returned 232 MPs at the 2015 general election, but could expect to lose around 65 to 95 seats in Thursday’s ballot on the basis of doorstep returns, Labour Uncut said.

read more
World can’t afford for May to fail

One campaigner from London who spent time in the North East last week said it was a “nuclear winter for Labour” with the party running “substantially below” its 2015 vote.

One official in Yorkshire told the blog that “a string of Morley and Outwoods — the seat Ed Balls lost in 2015 — was on the cards for 2017”. The Tories are pouring resources into Bolsover, the Derbyshire seat held by socialist firebrand Dennis Skinner, for example, and are privately confident of winning it.

The report came as:

• Theresa May accused Labour of breaking a key manifesto pledge not to raise taxes for people earning less than £80,000. She claimed Mr Corbyn’s plan to scrap the marriage tax allowance, a pledge included in Labour’s manifesto costings, would increase the income tax burden on four million families.

• Mrs May announced a plan to revive a UK Board of Trade, comprising nine commissioners across the world, to attract foreign investment after Brexit.

• The Tory lead over Labour was slashed from 17 points a month ago to 1 point, with the Tories on 41.5 per cent, Labour on 40.4 per cent, the Lib Dems on 6 per cent and Ukip on 3 per cent, according to a Survation poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain.

Labour Uncut acknowledged that the situation reflected by Labour canvassers was at odds with many opinion polls. A YouGov poll this week put Labour four points behind the Conservatives, a Tory lead slashed from nine points in mid-May.

Other polls were less favourable to Mr Corbyn’s party, but noted an upward trend in Labour’s polling over recent weeks nonetheless. The latest ICM poll put Labour 11 points behind the Tories, with Labour’s overall vote share rising from 22 per cent on May 8 to 34 per cent on June 5. The latest ORB survey put them nine points behind, on 34 per cent last week compared with 32 per cent on May 11.

Atul Hatwal, editor of Labour Uncut and author of the report, examined the discrepancies between the polls and the doorstep data, and acknowledged that the latter primarily came from Labour seats under threat. It would not take into account a rise in support for Labour in safe seats, which polling would.

In addition, polls — particularly those conducted online — are more likely to capture the widespread backing for Labour among younger voters, who rarely partake in doorstep conversations with canvassers.

Mr Hatwal said that a new generation of “shy Tories” may have emerged “deep inside Labour’s core”. This group may still identify with the party, but dislike Mr Corbyn and could vote Conservative to ensure he does not become prime minister. This group may avoid revealing their true voting intention out of embarrassment.

Labour Uncut also recognised that the Conservatives were targeting Labour constituencies with strong majorities, a strategy that indicates that Mrs May expects to take a swathe of seats from Mr Corbyn.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the rather sleepy UK election is coming to an end , some polls said it got closer in the final days but others said the UK conservatives still had a big lead , does anyone think the outcome will be anything other than a tory majority or very large minority ? )

General election 2017: Voters to go to the polls

Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May cast their votes on Thursday after a seven-week campaign

Voting in the UK general election is under way at more than 40,000 polling stations across the country.

Polls opened at 07:00 BST on Thursday, with counting starting once voting ends at 22:00 BST.

A total of 650 Westminster MPs will be elected, with about 46.9 million people registered to vote.

That is up from the last general election, in 2015, when there were 46.4 million registered voters.
◾Latest updates
◾Guide: How to vote
◾Find your constituency and candidates
◾What CAN'T you do in a polling station?
◾Manifesto guide on where the parties stand
◾How to follow results night and what to watch for

Some votes have already been cast, through postal voting, which accounted for 16.4% of the total electorate at the 2015 general election. People with an undelivered postal vote can still deliver it by hand to their local polling station.

Overall turnout in 2015, when the Conservatives won 331 out of 650 seats, was 66.4%, up from 2010.

Most polling stations are in schools, community centres and parish halls, but pubs, a launderette and a school bus have been used in the past.

Police have increased security at polling stations, including patrols by armed officers in some areas, following the recent terror attacks.

Liberal Democrat leader Tim FarronImage copyright AFP
Image caption
Lib Dem leader Tim Farron looked cheerful despite the rain after voting in Kendal, Cumbria

Caroline Lucas, co-leader of BritainImage copyright Reuters
Image caption
Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas voted with her husband Richard Savage in Brighton

UKIP leader Paul NuttallImage copyright Reuters
Image caption
UKIP leader Paul Nuttall cast his ballot in Congleton, Cheshire

Nicola Sturgeon at a polling stationImage copyright EPA
Image caption
In Glasgow, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon voted at a local community hall

A handful of seats are expected to be declared by midnight, with the final results expected on Friday afternoon.

Unusually, no local elections are taking place at the same time, so results might come through earlier than in recent general elections.

In 2015 the first seat to declare was Houghton and Sunderland South, at 22:48 BST.

To form a majority in the House of Commons one party must win 326 seats - in 2015 a Conservative majority was not confirmed until 13:34 BST.

The weather forecast is for some rain in south-west England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales on Thursday, with south-east England remaining cloudy and dry.

A woman and her dog outside a polling stationImage copyright Reuters
Image caption
Dogs at polling stations have become a familiar sight

Polls close at 22:00 BST, but officials say anyone in a polling station queue at this time should be able to cast their vote.

The BBC's main election programme, fronted by David Dimbleby, starts at 21:55 BST, with live coverage from scores of counts.

Dimbleby, fronting his 10th election night broadcast, will be joined by Mishal Husain, Emily Maitlis, Jeremy Vine.

David DimblebyImage copyright JEFF OVERS
Image caption
David Dimbleby will front BBC television coverage

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will have their own overnight programmes but will join Huw Edwards from 07:00 BST on 9 June.

On the radio, an overnight broadcast by BBC Radio 4 will be hosted by Jim Naughtie and Carolyn Quinn.

On BBC Radio 5 live, the overnight show will be hosted by Stephen Nolan and Emma Barnett.

Full coverage of the results as they come in will be on the BBC politics online live page and front page scorecard, with all the big breaking stories from around the country and analysis by correspondents.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( an exit poll is pointing to a hung parliament , although it has the tory numbers close to a majority so we'll have to see how the vote counting goes , I really have a hard time believing Corbyn did this well , if he did it was surely only a protest vote over the brexit and maybe trump )

Live |
General Election Results Live: Exit polls point to shock hung Parliament

By Laura Hughes, Political Correspondent
8 June 2017 • 11:34pm

Exit Poll predicts hung parliament and 'no Tory majority'
UK General Election 2017: 650 MPs to be elected
The Tory landslide has disappeared, like tears in the rain. I need a stiff drink
General Election 2017: Live results
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn fighting to be PM
Why does Sunderland always declare its election results first?
Polling stations will close at 10pm
Exit polls also due at around 10pm
The weirdest polling stations in the UK
Scotland results live: How will the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon do?

The Conservatives are set to be the largest party but without an overall majority according a joint BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll, which indicated the Tories will win 314 seats and Labour 266.

The poll suggest Britain is heading for a hung parliament, with Conservatives 12 seats short of the 326 they need for an absolute majority in the Commons.

The poll put Tories on 314 seats, with Labour on 266, the Scottish National Party on 34, Liberal Democrats on 14, Plaid Cymru on three and Greens on one.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the results on the BBC news site this morning seem to indicate the tories won 318 seats but needed 326 for a majority

labour appears to have won 261 seats , gaining some soft tory seats , if you look at the map and results many appear to be smaller cities and most were only won by rather small margins over the conservatives , some only a few 100 votes

it appears corbyn benefited from some sort of protest vote , really not convinced the man himself is really more popular now than he was a few months ago when his own party wanted him to quit , think the results show how die hard many liberal voters are and that they'll vote for the party no matter what even if they have questions about its leader

a few smaller parties also won seats , but not UKIP which lost its only seat and share of vote way down


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

News33‏ @News33w · 2m2 minutes ago

UK election: Theresa May to form government with DUP after meeting with Queen

( according to reports online , Theresa May has already seen the queen and has permission to form a government with the help of the irish DUP ( democratic unionist party ) party which won 10 seats so they'd combine to have a very small majority )

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a shocking result. But, in hindsight, Cameron's victory was seen as an anomaly when he got his majority, so perhaps this is mostly a 'reversion to the mean' ... things are back to normal.
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British PM seeks early June election

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