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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Key events in the 2017 B.C. election campaign

Horgan Clark Weaver


The Canadian Press
Published Thursday, May 4, 2017 3:02PM PDT

VANCOUVER -- A timeline of some of the key events in British Columbia's election campaign:

April 10: On the eve of the election, the Liberals release an campaign platform containing $157 million in new spending over three years and promising a personal income tax freeze, as well as new tax credits for seniors and family members who care for them. The Liberals projected a surplus of $295 million in the 2017-18 budget released before the election.

April 11: The election begins. Linda Kayfish, the sister of health researcher Roderick MacIsaac (pictured below) who was fired by the province in 2012 and later killed himself, accused Liberal Leader Christy Clark of being "callous and cynical" in her government's response to a recent report by British Columbia's Office of the Ombudsperson about the firings. Clark offers to repeat government apologies if it would give Kayfish some closure.

April 13: The NDP releases its platform, which includes $717 million in new spending for this fiscal year but forecasts a $108 million surplus for 2017-18 by generating new revenue and finding savings in government spending. The party's promises include increasing the corporate tax rate by one point to 12 per cent, a speculation tax on out-of-province property owners, $10-a-day childcare and an annual $400 rebate for renters.

April 17: The Green party promises to overhaul the tax system to pay for spending on childcare, education, public health and the environment in its platform. Green Leader Andrew Weaver forecasts operating deficits in the second and third years of a four-year mandate with a $216-million surplus in the final fiscal year.

April 19: Michael de Jong, the finance minister in Clark's government, says a Liberal analysis of the NDP platform reveals $6.5 billion in costs that have not been accounted for. Carole James, the NDP's finance critic, calls the Liberal accusations "fearmongering."

April 20: Clark touches NDP Leader John Horgan on the arm during a radio debate and tells him to calm down. "Don't touch me again, please," Horgan replies.

Tense moments during first leaders' debate

April 24: Facing questions about donations to her party from forestry company Weyerhaeuser, Clark says she isn't compromised because she doesn't defend American demands for tariffs on Canadian softwood. She accuses Horgan of "cozying up" to the United Steelworkers Union because it's paying the salaries of some NDP campaign staff.

April 25: If he's elected premier, Horgan says he would travel to Washington, D.C., within 30 days to meet U.S. representatives on a new softwood deal after the Americans announce duties on Canadian exports.

Liberals, NDP sparring over corporate donations

April 26: The moderator in the TV debate asks Horgan if he has anger-management issues, which he denies, adding he gets angry when he sees government inaction on a range of issues from underfunding of schools to a lack of support for children in care that has resulted in suicide. Clark is asked about a stipend she once collected from the Liberal party on top of her salary as premier and political donations that have led to a police investigation of B.C.'s political parties. She deflects the question on trust, partly by discussing her economic record.

Christy Clark, Andrew Weaver and John Horgan

April 26: Clark reacts to the softwood duties by calling on Ottawa to ban the shipment of thermal coal through British Columbia, a move that would hurt producers south of the border.

April 28: Clark ratchets up the pressure in the trade dispute over softwood, saying if Ottawa doesn't ban thermal coal she will act on her own. Horgan says Clark has not addressed thermal coal as premier, but now there's an election campaign she's making "provocative" statements.

Liberal Leader Christy Clark

May 2: Clark promises a hefty $70-per-tonne carbon tax on U.S. thermal coal to make it uncompetitive in the global market.

May 3: The Liberals say they "stand corrected" on claims the NDP planted a woman at a campaign event to confront Clark. The encounter days earlier generates a buzz on social media as the hashtag #IamLinda became a rallying point on Twitter for those opposed the Liberal government.


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

May 4, 2017 5:23 pm Updated: May 4, 2017 5:24 pm

Why Saanich North may be the most interesting race in the B.C. election

By Jon Azpiri
Online News Producer Global News

Campaign signs of the three major candidates running in Saanich North and the Islands.

Exactly one week before the May 9 election, Adam Olsen’s campaign office was the busiest storefront in the strip mall on Bevan Road.

B.C. Green Party volunteers were loading up a vehicle with campaign material before Olsen was heading to Salt Spring Island in an effort to get out the vote.

As Olsen is set to begin his interview with Global News, a man walks into his office to tell him “I’m voting for you for the first time.”

“There is nothing easy about running as a B.C. Green, but there’s nothing more freeing,” Olsen said. “We don’t get marching orders from the top. The party has developed a strong platform and it’s about each candidate articulating how that platform applies to their riding.

“You’ve got to earn every vote.”

Olsen may need every vote that comes his way as his riding, Saanich North and the Islands, will likely be one of the closest races in next week’s B.C. election.

Sporting a Green Party hockey jersey, Saanich North candidate Adam Olsen stands outside his campaign office in Sidney.

Sporting a Green Party hockey jersey, Saanich North candidate Adam Olsen stands outside his campaign office in Sidney.

In the 2013 election, the top three candidates in the riding finished within 379 votes of each other, making it the closest three-way race in B.C. political history. The NDP’s Gary Holman beat Liberal Stephen Roberts by 163 votes. Olsen finished just 216 votes behind Roberts.

All three candidates have returned in 2017 and believe they stand a fair chance of winning. Olsen has served as the B.C. Greens’ interim leader, which gave him a crash course on the inner workings of the Legislature.

Holman has served as the NDP’s ferry critic, an issue that is important for a riding that is home to the Swartz Bay ferry terminal and the Gulf Islands.

He is also a vocal opponent of the Liberals and says that voters have no choice but to consider voting strategically to unseat Premier Christy Clark.

“When you’re faced with the most corrupt government, the most monied government in Canada, then a strategic vote to get rid of these buggers and change the channel in British Columbia is absolutely valid.”

Roberts, a late entry into the 2013 election, has had four years to increase his profile in a riding that has a long history of voting Liberal.

The race has the makings for one of the most interesting races in the May 9 election. The stakes may be the highest for Olsen and the Greens. Aside from Leader Andrew Weaver, the incumbent in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Olsen may be the Green Party’s best chance at winning another seat in the Legislature.

List of Green Party promises

If Olsen wins, the Greens could still fall short of the four seats needed for official party status, but it could be the start of a snowball effect where voters in other parts of Vancouver Island, and even the rest of B.C., start to think that supporting the Green Party is no longer a wasted vote.

If enough momentum were to develop over the years, three-way races like the one in Saanich North could become more commonplace.

Are the Greens a threat to the NDP or the Liberals?

UBC political science professor Max Cameron notes that B.C’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it very hard for third parties to break through.

“What third parties tend to do is affect the election by implementing the distribution of votes between the other two political parties,” he said. “They can often be spoilers.”

Many may think that the Greens, with its eco-conscious ethic, will likely siphon votes from the left-leaning NDP, but candidates in Saanich North said the math isn’t quite that straightforward.

In the 2013 election, the NDP and Liberals both appeared to lose votes to the Greens in Saanich North. The Liberals received 2,768 fewer votes in 2013 than they did in the 2009 election. The NDP got 2,360 fewer votes.

The Greens, meanwhile, saw an increase of nearly 7,000 votes. Olsen notes that some of that gain came not from the two major parties but from disenfranchised voters who had refrained from voting in the past but were motivated to head to the polls to support the Greens.

Roberts acknowledges that the Liberals did lose voters to the Greens in Saanich North but says “now they’re coming back.”

Liberal candidate Stephen Roberts at his campaign office, which is located right next to NDP MLA Gary Holman’s constituency office.

Jon Azpiri

The NDP’s Holman said he doesn’t feel like he’s being squeezed by two opponents on opposite ends of the political spectrum.

“I don’t actually feel like I’m in the middle with the Greens and Liberals on either side,” Holman said. “I kind of feel like the Greens are in the middle and that’s in fact how they characterize themselves and in fact that’s how they’ve conducted themselves.”

“We have Andrew Weaver supporting two budgets, opposing two budgets. When questioned about ‘if you were in a minority government position, which party would you support,’ he wasn’t clear about that. He was conflicted about that.”

Holman’s campaign manager Scott Colbourne said Green voters aren’t necessarily easy to pigeon-hole.

Full B.C. election coverage

Colbourne notes a three-way race can change the dynamics of a campaign and his team has had to adjust accordingly.

“I think the Green vote surges early, this is what we’ve learned. There’s an attempt at visibility and then it peels away like an orange peel at the end. That’s exactly what we’re seeing in the last week.”

Will strategic voting be a factor?

The thought of three parties running neck-and-neck brings up the spectre of strategic voting, which became a topic of conversation during the 2015 federal election.

Many who opposed then-Prime Minster Harper argued that voters needed to consider supporting the Liberal or NDP candidate who had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in each riding, whether they actually preferred that candidate or not..

NDP incumbent Gary Holman.

Saanich North voters who oppose Premier Christy Clark may have to consider a similar calculus, weighing whether Holman or Olsen is the best bet to deny the Liberals another seat in the Legislature.

“To some degree every vote is a strategic vote,” UBC’s Cameron said, adding that there are times in a first-past-the-post system where “you vote for the party that’s not your favourite party.”

“You do it because you’re worried that you’re going to be left with the very worst outcome.”

Holman says people tired of the Liberals have no choice but to think about vote-splitting, but Olsen argues that voters are tired of the cynicism of strategic voting.

“I think actually a lot of people have resented their vote in the past,” he said. “In B.C. we’ve got a culture of voting against [a candidate].

“People are looking for the opportunity to vote for something, rather than against something.”


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What Google search data reveals about the B.C. election

Where Christy Clark, John Horgan and Andrew Weaver stand in the Google searches of B.C. voters

By Maryse Zeidler, CBC News Posted: May 03, 2017 7:11 PM PT| Last Updated: May 04, 2017 8:02 AM PT

New data from Google shows more people are searching for the B.C. Liberals than any other party.

New data from the internet's top search engine reveals what British Columbians want to know about the major political parties and candidates leading up to the provincial election next week.

Google Trends shared information with CBC News based on aggregated and anonymized searches in the last month in B.C.

The data shows that searches for the two parties leading in the polls are about equal, but there are far more searches for B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark than NDP Leader John Horgan or Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver.

Relative Google search data, in B.C.:


■B.C. Liberals: 36 per cent.
■B.C. NDP: 35 per cent.
■B.C. Greens: 29 per cent.

Party leaders:
■Christy Clark: 75 per cent.
■John Horgan: 7 per cent.
■Andrew Weaver: 18 per cent.

B.C. Election 2017
From the left: B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark, B.C. Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver and B.C. NDP Leader John Horgan. (CBC)

According to political scientist David Moscrop, the data signals a long-standing perceived problem for the NDP leading into the election.

"There seems to be a pretty high-level awareness of Christy Clark and who she is, which makes sense — she's been the premier for four years. But nobody really knows who John Horgan is," Moscrop said.

"It's not like Horgan came out of nowhere, he's been the leader of the opposition for years now. So he had time to define himself, but hasn't."

Moscrop says it's unclear how this could affect the NDP on election day — he says voters take the party, its leader and the candidate in their riding into consideration, and it's hard to know which of those factors may outweigh the other.

But Moscrop's advice, overall, is to not take Google's search data too seriously. "It's important to know that the data represents a subset of the population," he said.

"If you really wanted a picture of where everyone was, you'd need to also know what the folks who aren't searching are thinking."

Also worth noting: searches for B.C. Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver spiked during last Thursday's televised debate. ​

Max Cameron, a political scientist at UBC, said Weaver's Google search numbers may indicate that voters are wondering if the Greens are a viable alternative to the Liberals.

"I think that the Green Party has done well so far in this campaign. They were put in the debate and I think Andrew Weaver performed ... extremely well," Cameron said.

Top questions on …

Another point of interest in Google's search data from the past month is the most common types of questions people have been asking about each party.

B.C. Liberals
■How long have the B.C. Liberals been in power?
■What are the B.C. Liberals campaigning on?
■Why are conservatives called B.C. Liberals?
■What is the B.C. Liberal platform?
■What tax break do the Liberals give to the wealthy?

■When did B.C. last have an NDP government?
■Who is leading in B.C., NDP or Liberals?
■What are the policies or ideas of the NDP?
■Why should I vote for NDP?
■Why did NDP lose in 2013?

B.C. Green Party
■What is the B.C. Green's platform?
■Who is the Green Party's leader for premier date?

Cameron says the question posed about the Liberals' place on the political spectrum points to the confusion among some voters about the party's relationship to the federal Liberals.

"The B.C. Liberal Party is in fact quite different from the federal Liberal Party," Cameron said. "It really is much closer to the federal Conservatives."

Cameron said there has even been some discussion within the party about whether or not it should change its name.

High Heel Ban 20170313
B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark. The B.C. Liberals may share the same name as the federal party, but most analysts agree it's more akin to the federal Conservatives. (The Canadian Press / Ben Nelms)

As for the Google question about tax breaks for the wealthy, Moscrop says that may be an advantage for the NDP.

"It's been something that the NDP have been hammering on for some time, so it's probably a good sign that that argument is having a bit of an effect on some people," Moscrop said.

As for the types of questions about the NDP, Cameron said they may point to the Liberals' ongoing negative campaign messages about when the NDP was last in power, claiming that they mismanaged the economy and can't be trusted to govern.

"It appears for some voters they're trying to figure out what that means, what exactly did happen in the 1990s," Cameron said.

"I think that voters are trying to figure out, in some cases, how credible those concerns are."


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clark still smiling about chances as B.C. election enters homeward stretch

Posted By: The Canadian Presson: May 07, 2017In: CP BC

PRINCETON, B.C. — Christy Clark appears unruffled by the rebuff of a shy one-year-old outside a cafe in southern British Columbia, who buries his head in his father's shoulder.

Unfazed, the B.C. Liberal leader plucks a red-and-white pinwheel from a nearby flower box and coaxes a smile from the youngster, who accepts the spinning toy.

As she campaigns across the province, Clark, 51, comes across as similarly confident in her ability to win over B.C. voters in Tuesday's election.

Clark is a seasoned campaigner and in the 2013 provincial election, her first as party leader, she was widely predicted to lose.

"We were 20 points behind," Clark recalled in a recent interview. "It was just terrible.

"The caucus was divided. The party was broke. We were doomed. Everybody said we were going to lose the election."

Despite losing her own seat, Clark achieved the unexpected and led the Liberals to their fourth-straight majority government.

This time Clark is running on her record after a full-term in office.

"I feel like this time I have more to say to people than just, 'Trust me, I'm going to try and do my best for you,' " she said between campaign stops in the Okanagan region.

"This time I can say, 'I told you I was going to do my best for you. We have made British Columbia number one in the country. I hope you'll trust me to do it again.' "

Clark's campaign is highlighting the Liberal party's stewardship of a provincial economy that has led the country in growth while trumpeting its financial management by stringing together five straight surplus budgets and promising four more. She has reminded voters the last time the NDP was in power in the 1990s the economy stagnated.

But incumbency also has its challenges.

Clark's record is weighed down by a child-poverty rate in B.C. that is the highest in the country. Housing affordability became an issue under her watch and there appears to be growing discontent over political fundraising laws.

Clark is no stranger to politics, nor to political defeat. As a child she helped campaign with her father, who was a three-time candidate for the B.C. Liberals, a party that was virtually non-existent at the time.

He was never elected, but in 2011 the party he championed chose his daughter as its leader. By then Clark had survived the crucible of student politics during her time at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver.

After she was first elected to the legislature in 1996, she went on to serve as education minister and deputy premier in Gordon Campbell's government.

The Liberal campaign's focus on the economy and job creation has also seen Clark portray herself as the only leader willing and able to stand up to "rising protectionism" south of the border.

Late in the campaign, Clark threatened tough action against the thermal coal industry in the United States, asking Ottawa to ban the coal from travelling through U.S. ports after the Americans slapped new duties on softwood. She says she is also willing to go it alone by taxing the coal if the federal government doesn't back her.

Her friends and opponents have described Clark as a fierce political competitor with a knack for electioneering.

"Campaigns are a test of character, as much as a test of policy," she said.

— Follow @gwomand on Twitter

Geordon Omand, The Canadian Press


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clark making another trip to Prince George ahead of BC Election

Brendan Pawliw Brendan Pawliw, staff Friday, May. 5th, 2017

BC Liberal Leader Christy Clark is finishing off another day on the campaign trail in Prince George on Friday evening.

Clark will be joined by Liberal candidates Shirley Bond (PG-Valemount), Mike Morris (PG-Mackenzie) and John Rustad (Nechako Lakes) at a tailgate event starting at 5:30 pm on 1088 Great Street.

It’s being hosted by the Northern Regional Construction Association and the Independent Contractors Business Association.


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

May 6, 2017 2:13 pm

Vote splitting becomes B.C. election issue

By Dirk Meissner The Canadian Press

NDP Leader John Horgan steps off a plane after arriving in Nanaimo, B.C., on Friday May 5, 2017, for campaign stops on Vancouver Island. A provincial election will be held on Tuesday.

NANAIMO, B.C. – British Columbia’s political party leaders have been frantically crisscrossing the province, making their final appeals to voters who might still be swayed before casting their ballots Tuesday.

New Democrat Leader John Horgan reached out to prospective Green party voters, and in at least one riding campaign workers said a split vote would actually help the NDP.

Horgan, campaigning on Vancouver Island Friday where the NDP holds 11 of 14 seats, said undecided and Green voters should support the New Democrats in a strategic move to keep Christy Clark’s Liberals from a fifth consecutive election win.

“I’m appealing to those who are contemplating voting Green that we have a lot of concerns in common,” he said. “I think we can all agree we can’t afford four more years of Christy Clark.”

Horgan, who battled with Green Leader Andrew Weaver during the campaign’s televised debate, made the appeal at each of his campaign events, starting in Nanaimo.

He said the NDP and Greens share similar positions on electoral reform, climate change and opposition to the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion project.

“We can defeat Christy Clark and the B.C. Liberals but we have to come together to make it happen,” Horgan said, adding a warning that vote splits benefit the Liberals.

Weaver also campaigned on the Island Friday, and was unequivocal in his rejection of Horgan’s invitation, denouncing the NDP offer as a form of voter suppression built on fear.

Weaver said the Greens are looking to inspire voters, not scare them away from supporting a political party.

The Greens hold just one seat in the legislature, but are believed to be challenging the NDP for several seats on Vancouver Island.

Despite Horgan’s appeals to Green voters, some New Democrats in Parksville-Qualicum said local NDP candidate Sue Powell was looking to move between the Liberal and Green votes and take the seat from incumbent Michelle Stilwell, who is a member of Clark’s cabinet.

“I strongly believe that Sue Powell is going to win this election because the disenfranchised Liberal voters are defecting and she’s picking up some of those votes and the Greens are picking up the other ones, but our base is very very strong,” said NDP supporter Scott DeLong.

Clark also made a stop on Vancouver Island during a whirlwind of campaigning on Friday that included events in Campbell River, Richmond, Terrace, Smithers and Prince George.

She again warned supporters of the negative impact she insisted an NDP government would have on jobs.

Clark accused Horgan of having more than 100,000 jobs on his “hit list,” citing his opposition to resource projects including Pacific NorthWest LNG and Trans Mountain, along with his plan to hike the minimum wage.

She promoted her party as the only one that can create and protect jobs, particularly in natural resources, from the protectionist influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“We are going to stand strong to make sure that we support jobs in British Columbia. We are going to fight and we are going to fight hard to make sure that we preserve what we have in the face of U.S. protectionism,” Clark said at an event in Campbell River


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Advance turnout spikes 70 per cent in B.C. election as voters flock to polls

B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark
A Liberal staffer tries to block photographera from seeing B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark and candidate Amrik Virk walk past NDP leader John Horgan signs as they make a campaign stop in Surrey, B.C., Sunday, May 7, 2017. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward)

The Canadian Press
Published Sunday, May 7, 2017 9:34PM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, May 7, 2017 9:51PM EDT

VANCOUVER -- Elections B.C. says the number of people who turned out to vote ahead of election day this year is 70 per cent higher than last time.

Between 2013 and 2017, voter turnout jumped seven points, from 12 per cent of all registered voters to 19 per cent.

The total turnout for six days of advance polls this year was about 614,000 out of a total of about 3,150,000 registered voters.

Last election, about 360,000 people voted early, though advance polls were only open for four days.

Election day is on Tuesday.


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Top 8 ridings to watch on election night

Six ridings were decided by less than 500 votes in the 2013 election

By Justin McElroy, Richard Zussman, CBC News Posted: May 08, 2017 5:00 AM PT| Last Updated: May 08, 2017 5:00 AM PT

A sign directs voters to a voting place in B.C. (Killarney community centre)

In 2013, 14 ridings across British Columbia were decided by less than 1,000 votes. Six of those ridings were decided by less than 500 ballots.

This election is expected to have many close races as well. These eight ridings will be some of the most compelling to watch.

Coquitlam-Maillardville: When B.C. Liberal Steve Kim opened the newspaper the day after the 2013 provincial election he would have seen himself listed as the MLA for Coquitlam-Maillardville. But after absentee ballots came in and a re-count was launched, B.C. NDP candidate Selina Robinson was declared the winner by 41 votes.

Kim and Robinson will once again face off in what was the closest race of the last election. The B.C. NDP have won the seat in seven of the last 10 elections, but in those seven wins, it has never won it by more than 1,500 votes.

Skeena: The B.C. Liberals have only won this northwest B.C. riding once, in 2001, but believe they have a chance this time because of their candidate: Ellis Ross, a former Haisla Nation chief who has championed the yet-to-develop LNG Industry for many years.

The mid-sized riding, which includes the cities of Terrace and Kitimat, has a large Aboriginal population that tends to overwhelmingly vote for the NDP. But if close to half of them vote for Ross in this election, it would give the Liberals the win.

Surrey-Fleetwood: Last election, Langley mayor Peter Fassbender was able to squeak this riding out for the Liberals by 200 votes, their smallest margin of victory in the entire province, meaning if the NDP have any chance of forming a government, this is a riding they surely have to take.

And they have reason for optimism. For one, the boundaries have shifted west, eliminating some of the areas near Cloverdale that heavily supported the B.C. Liberals four years ago. For another, Fassbender was education minister during the 2014 teacher's dispute, and many Surrey schools are bursting at the seams.

This only reinforces the fact that if the NDP win the minimum eight new seats required to get a majority, this has to be one of them.

Delta North: Liberal incumbent Scott Hamilton has been down this road before. After winning the election in Delta North by 203 votes in 2013, Hamilton is once again expected to be in a close race. This time his opponent will be former Olympian and NDP staffer Ravi Kahlon.

The NDP was expected to win the riding for a third straight time in 2013, but with MLA Guy Gentner retiring, Scott Hamilton defeated NDP candidate Sylvia Bishop by 203 votes, taking the riding for the B.C. Liberals. Housing affordability and transportation, including the future of the Massey Tunnel, are the main issues this time around.

Fraser-Nicola: this is one of the several ridings between Surrey and Kamloops that switched from the NDP to the Liberals last election, and it's a rematch from four years ago: veteran politician Harry Lali is hoping to retake the seat from Liberal MLA Jackie Tegart, the former mayor of Ashcroft.

This vast riding with several mid-sized communities has struggled economically in recent years. The lumber mill in the largest town (Merritt) shut down in 2016, and the addition of Hope to the district should also help the NDP.

But the Liberals have promised several highway improvements, and veteran MLAs like Lali seeking a comeback don't have the strongest track record.

Burnaby-Lougheed: The northeast of Burnaby's four ridings, this switched from the Liberals to the NDP in 2013 but the winner, Jane Shin, is not running again.

The NDP have replaced her with Katrina Chen, a popular school board trustee, while the B.C. Liberals are running a familiar face in the riding in Steve Darling, the longtime Global B.C. morning news anchor, who decided to enter politics a month after he was let go by the station.

With the Kinder Morgan pipeline ending in the riding, and the lack of incumbent candidate, it's received plenty of attention from both Horgan and Clark during the election campaign.

Saanich North and the Islands: The only riding where the same Green, NDP and Liberal candidates are running again is Saanich North and the Islands. NDP incumbent Gary Holman beat Liberal candidate Stephen Roberts by 163 votes in 2013. Green Party candidate Adam Olsen finished third, just 379 behind Holman.

The Green party has targeted the riding as the most likely spot that it can add to the one it won in 2013. The riding is made up of the Gulf Islands, Sidney and parts of Central Saanich.

Vancouver-Fraserview: Of all the ridings in the city of Vancouver, this one is likely going to be the closest. Vancouver-Fraserview has been decided by 1,200 votes or fewer in four of the last five elections, including just 470 votes in 2013.

Suzanne Anton is seeking re-election after being elected for the first time in 2013 and having served most recently as Attorney General. Her main competition is George Chow, who like Anton, is a former Vancouver city councillor.

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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 8:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mainstreet has the NDP at 40% and the Liberals at 39%, but are predicting a Liberal majority government.

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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 8:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Mainstreet has the NDP at 40% and the Liberals at 39%, but are predicting a Liberal majority government.

looking at the poll , the BC liberals numbers have improved especially in Vancouver all of a sudden , the rest of the province they looked about the same .

its all very unclear as to the final outcome as there still polling nearby tied , also the increase in advance poll turnout would seem to indicate higher turnout . which might mean some soft ndp and green voters who normally might not show for a provincial election are actually coming out this time

Christy Clark also has some high personal negatives , not nearly as bad as Kathleen Wynne but still rather high . ndp leader rather unknown according to some polls I saw

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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Liberals win another majority they should really declare a Provincial Holiday in honour of the NDP.

They could call it Adrian Dix Day.

The voters are clearly fatigued by the Liberals;
But the NDP seems to misunderstand that fatigue doesn't equate the desire for radical change.

Dix ran a campaign that should be taught in classrooms as how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, a class that John Horgan likely should have taken to not repeat so many of Dix mistakes if they end up losing the election.

There is no excuse for the NDP losing tomorrow night.

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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 7:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( I find the BC election too hard to predict with polls so close , I'm also doubtful of the greens winning multiple seats , we've never seen an election in Canada where the greens have won " multiple seats " or even really been competitive in more than a couple ridings )

After bruising month long campaign, voters decide in British Columbia

The Canadian Press

Tuesday, May 9th, 2017

VANCOUVER – Voters in British Columbia head to the polls today at the end of a sometimes bruising 28-day campaign fought on jobs, the economy and the influence of big donors in provincial politics.

The B.C. Liberal party has been in power for 16 years and is attempting to build on four straight majority governments by running on the party’s record of economic growth and financial stability.

The NDP has tried to make Christy Clark’s leadership as premier the central issue of the campaign, with party leader John Horgan accusing her of being out of touch with average people over issues like the cost of housing and inadequate education funding.

Green Leader Andrew Weaver’s pitch features a disavowal of politics as usual, telling voters his party is the only one offering something that’s different on climate change and preparing the province for a new economy spurred by technological change.

Negative ads and attacks between the NDP and the Liberals over political fundraising laws that place no limits on corporate and union donations have also been a prime part of the political debate.

The NDP accuses the Liberals of dragging their feet on political fundraising by failing to back its bills in the legislature that would have banned donations from the corporate and labour sectors, while the Liberals have shot back at donations the New Democrats received from the United Steelworkers.

In the campaign’s final days, Weaver’s supporters became a hot commodity as the New Democrats tried to persuade voters they are the only real alternative to the Liberals.

On Monday, Horgan made a final pitch to anyone who is undecided to back the NDP.

“To those voters not yet decided, join with us, come together and let’s create a better B.C.,” he said at a campaign stop in Surrey.

Horgan made a direct appeal last week for Green supporters to back the NDP, telling them they share common goals in their support for electoral reform, measures to fight climate change and opposition to the expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline.

Weaver was critical of the NDP for courting Green supporters, saying he is trying to inspire people to vote for something.

Minority government are rare in British Columbia. There have only been three in provincial history, with the last in 1952.

On the eve of the election, Weaver wouldn’t discuss where he would throw his support if no party wins a majority of seats.

“It would be irresponsible for me to undermine any negotiating potential I would have prior to people going to vote, to actually say what we would do,” said Weaver, the lone Green in the legislature after the last election.

“We have a platform with very clear views and ideas that we would like to get forward in a negotiation. We would try to ensure that many of the ideas are there.”

Getting “big money out of politics,” proportional representation and climate change are among the Greens’ top priorities, said Weaver, whose party has banned corporate and union donations.

Clark maintained her focus on jobs and the economy on the campaign’s last day, arguing that the other parties risk economic growth by making promises that would run up the debt.

“None of the other two parties share anything in common with us,” she said. “I’m just working hard to make sure British Columbian’s know what I stand for, what I believe in and the choice, the really, really stark choice, in this election.”

Progressive Tory

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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the Liberals will win a majority.

As for the Greens winning multiple seats, remember the 2013 election was the first time a provincial Green had ever won.

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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I think the Liberals will win a majority.

As for the Greens winning multiple seats, remember the 2013 election was the first time a provincial Green had ever won.

I agree the big question is how the greens do , we've never had a provincial election anywhere in Canada or North America for that matter . where the green party has won multiple seats . there is a couple examples of them winning single seats , often the party leader . ( BC , PEI and New Brunswick )

so thinking its more likely we see some better than normal finishes in some green targeted ridings , maybe like 15 % or 20 % of the vote , but not likely enough to win . only seat that seems certain to go green would be the one the party leader already holds .

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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

News / Vancouver

Pollster predicts minority government as B.C. Election Day arrives, contenders in dead heat

Forum poll predicts 42-42 seat split, Greens gaining, after month-long campaign fraught with attack ads, personal jabs and affordability talk pitted against jobs and the environment.

A Vancouver voter casts her ballot in advance polls in the 2017 B.C. election.

Jennifer Gauthier / Metro Order this photo

A Vancouver voter casts her ballot in advance polls in the 2017 B.C. election.

By: David P. Ball Metro Published on Tue May 09 2017

B.C. Liberals and NDP are in a statistical dead heat heading into election day Tuesday, a new Forum Research opinion poll released late Monday suggests.

It’s been arguably the most vicious election campaign in British Columbia’s recent memory. Over the past month, B.C. Liberals, New Democrats and Greens have duked it out with attack ads, personal jabs and testy debates.

The campaign hasn’t been without substance: It’s also brought some big issues to the fore, such as jobs, affordability, child care, health care, the environment, and the role of “big money” in politics.

Tuesday is election day across B.C., and voting opens from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

If the latest opinion polls are any indication, the race has ended with John Horgan’s B.C. NDP neck-and-neck with Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals and stark regional differences at play.

The Greens, reaching their highest-ever results in final weeks, could still play a decisive role — either by increasing their seats from their one MLA, or siphoning votes from other parties particularly the NDP.

According to a new opinion poll from Forum Research, released to Metro on Monday evening, the B.C. NDP and B.C. Liberals were in a statistical tie with NDP leading with 41 per cent of the popular vote, and B.C. Liberals with 39 per cent. Greens had fallen since previous polls, to 17 points.

“The race has been very close,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff in a phone interview. “Over the last week, the two parties have been see-sawing back and forth. But when you take the margin of error into consideration, we’ve seen the parties essentially tied … The polls have tightened up to nearly dead even."

The pollster, who came closest of all polls to call the results in the B.C. Liberals' 2013 provincial election surprise win, also predicted that both the B.C. Liberals and the NDP would tie with only 42 Legislature seats, less than the 44 needed to hold a majority.

The Greens were expected to win two, with one seat "other," meaning Andrew Weaver could wield an historic level of influence if a minority government comes to pass after Tuesday.

Other polls the day before election day, however, varied.

According to veteran poll analyst Eric Grenier — whose multi-poll averaging predictions are featured on CBC News — the B.C. NDP would get 39.9 per cent of the popular vote, and B.C. Liberals statistically tied at 39.4 per cent. He places the Greens at nearly 18 per cent.

Despite the tied predictions, however, Grenier’s seat predictions suggest that the B.C. Liberals could win a majority government with 45 MLAs, the B.C. NDP with 40, and Greens adding one seat to their caucus of two MLAs.

Another poll, Insights West, released Monday suggested a straight tie of 41 per cent for each of the B.C. Liberals and NDP, and Greens with 17 points. But B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark trailed in popularity (38 per cent) as a leader behind Greens' Andrew Weaver (46 per cent) and NDP's John Horgan (42 per cent). Its margin of error was 3.5 points, and sample size 744 voters.

But in 2013, pollsters didn’t foresee the frontrunner B.C. NDP being trounced by the B.C. Liberals. Forum Research came closest of the various polls then, but it led to much hand-wringing about whether to trust pollsters at all.

“It’s a mugs game to try to figure out which one poll is more accurate than another,” Bozinoff mused. “We’ll of course know after the election, but not before.”

“I wouldn’t worry about any one particular poll. I’d take them all together and average them for a better indication.”

One reason pollsters were so wrong last time, he said, was because of a last-minute shift in the electorate away from the B.C. NDP despite a significant lead earlier in the election campaign.

“Some polls may have stopped too early to catch the change. That was one of the lessons from the previous election and the accuracy of the polls then,” he said. “Something can happen in the last day or two, and we want to get that reaction. You want to make sure no intervening events happen between your survey and election day.”

Forum Research conducted its poll of 1,076 B.C. residents using automated phone Interactive Voice Response. Results were within a three per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

How to vote
Election Day is Tuesday, May 9 from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. There are lots of voting stations across Metro Vancouver. To find out more about when and where to vote, visit Elections B.C.'s Where To Vote app.

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BC provincial election to be held May 9th

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