Home FAQ Search Memberlist User Groups Register Login   

BloggingTories.ca Forum IndexBloggingTories.ca Forum Index
    Index     FAQ     Search     Register     Login         JOIN THE DISCUSSION - CLICK HERE      


Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 27, 28, 29 ... 36, 37, 38  Next  

Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 28 of 38
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

new senate polls for Minnesota


special election- Smith the democrat leads by 6 points over republican Housley which is much closer than earlier polls


Klobuchar the incumbent democrat leads by 23 points in the other Minnesota seat



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6558
Reputation: 304.6Reputation: 304.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The dreaded Trump effect ...
================================================

‘Transgender’ Could Be Defined Out of Existence Under Trump Administration
Oct. 21, 2018

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is considering narrowly defining gender as a biological, immutable condition determined by genitalia at birth, the most drastic move yet in a governmentwide effort to roll back recognition and protections of transgender people under federal civil rights law.

A series of decisions by the Obama administration loosened the legal concept of gender in federal programs, including in education and health care, recognizing gender largely as an individual’s choice and not determined by the sex assigned at birth. The policy prompted fights over bathrooms, dormitories, single-sex programs and other arenas where gender was once seen as a simple concept. Conservatives, especially evangelical Christians, were incensed.

Now the Department of Health and Human Services is spearheading an effort to establish a legal definition of sex under Title IX, the federal civil rights law that bans gender discrimination in education programs that receive government financial assistance, according to a memo obtained by The New York Times.

The department argued in its memo that key government agencies needed to adopt an explicit and uniform definition of gender as determined “on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable.” The agency’s proposed definition would define sex as either male or female, unchangeable, and determined by the genitals that a person is born with, according to a draft reviewed by The Times. Any dispute about one’s sex would have to be clarified using genetic testing.

“Sex means a person’s status as male or female based on immutable biological traits identifiable by or before birth,” the department proposed in the memo, which was drafted and has been circulating since last spring. “The sex listed on a person’s birth certificate, as originally issued, shall constitute definitive proof of a person’s sex unless rebutted by reliable genetic evidence.”

The new definition would essentially eradicate federal recognition of the estimated 1.4 million Americans who have opted to recognize themselves — surgically or otherwise — as a gender other than the one they were born into.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/21/us/politics/transgender-trump-administration-sex-definition.html?emc=edit_nn_20181022&nl=morning-briefing&nlid=5758153520181022&te=1
=================================================

This shows the lengths the NY Times, a former newspaper, will go to further the narrative of Trump trampling on the Constitution, or whatever ... the thing is, statisticians require strict definitions, and those definitions have to stay in place so that the historical dimension is recorded as accurately as possible. It shouldn't respond to temporary public demands to change defintions, as they have done with "rape". (They have changed this definition because they want want "rape" to appear to be more frequent and more of a threat than it actually is.)

The fact the babies with penises are male has never been amended before. But sticking with that definition deprives millions of their "rights" ... sorry, it does not.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

more new polls


West Virginia - incumbent democrat Manchin is leading by 16 points



North Dakota - republican Cramer is leading incumbent democrat Heitkamp by 16 points



Florida - Rick Scott leads by 1 point in one poll but another has the democrat ahead by 6 points


Vermont , socialist Bernie Sanders is ahead by 41 points . but his support his hard to transfer to other races .

in the Vermont governor race the moderate republican incumbent Scott still leads by 14 points


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump goes ‘all-in’ to protect GOP majority in final midterm stretch, planning ad and rally blitz



Brooke Singman By Brooke Singman | Fox News



EXCLUSIVE: President Trump's campaign operation is planning an advertising blitz for the final two-week stretch before the midterms, as part of a multimillion-dollar bid to help Republicans keep control of Congress, Fox News has learned.


The commitment, according to the campaign, includes a $6 million TV and digital ad buy set to launch next Monday and last through Election Day. The campaign also is sending $3 million to the Republican National Committee to boost GOP campaigns, while Trump plans to host at least 10 more "Make America Great Again" rallies in support of Republicans before the election.


All told, the president's campaign reports, the nearly $10 million commitment is part of more than $20 million the operation is spending on the midterm elections, including rally costs.

“President Trump is all-in for the midterms to lead the GOP to victory on Election Day,” Trump Campaign Manager Brad Parscale said in a statement Tuesday. “His winning spirit is energizing Americans across the country to get out the vote and keep the momentum of our America First agenda going strong.”

Trump's 2020 campaign already has amassed a massive war chest, raising roughly $100 million to date. He enters his re-election battle with a sizable fundraising advantage against any Democratic candidate, but will draw down some of that this fall in the fight to keep Congress in Republican hands.


'President Trump is all-in for the midterms.'
— Trump Campaign Manager Brad Parscale

The MAGA rallies being held on a regular basis serve a dual purpose -- boosting GOP candidates in the midterms while allowing Trump to connect with his base and keep them energized ahead of the looming 2020 fight. Since the summer, Trump has held 20 such rallies so far. Over the last several months, Trump and Vice President Pence also have attended dozens of candidate and GOP committee fundraisers, according to the campaign.

At the two-week mark, Republicans are seen as holding the edge in the race for control of the Senate, while Democrats remain favored in the race for the House -- but their advantage is narrowing in recent polling. According to the latest NBC-Wall Street Journal Poll, in competitive districts, Democrats and Republicans are in a dead heat on the question of which party should control Congress. A Washington Post survey out Tuesday reported that Democrats hold a "statistically insignificant lead" in battleground districts.

The ultimate impact of Trump's policies and presence on the campaign trail remains to be seen, but he has shown no hesitation about latching his name and his brand to Republican candidates across the country -- most recently, former primary rival Ted Cruz, during a Texas rally Monday night. While many Democrats are trying to damage GOP incumbents by linking them to Trump, some of those same incumbents are openly embracing the Trump agenda and the president's visible campaign role.

"He's campaigning at a higher level than any president previously," Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News' "America's Newsroom" on Monday.


Aside from rallies, the next big commitment will come in the form of the ad buy set to launch Oct. 29.

“With so much at stake in the midterms, we’re leaving everything on the field to build our incredible progress for the American people,” Lara Trump, a campaign senior adviser and daughter-in-law to the president, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the RNC last week announced a record $269.9 million raised in a non-presidential election year, with $56.8 million raised in the third quarter. The RNC told Fox News that 40 percent of the total were small-dollar donations. The Democratic National Committee has raised $136 million so far this cycle, including $9.6 million in September, compared with the RNC’s $26.2 million.

The RNC piggy bank will grow a bit bigger with the Trump campaign vowing to transfer $3 million. The new transfer is in addition to direct contributions of $214,000 made by the campaign in August to 107 House and Senate campaigns.

Despite the RNC's fundraising edge over its counterpart, Democratic candidates have benefited from a windfall of individuals donations, fueled in part by the fundraising tool "ActBlue," which has sent more than $1 billion in donations to Democrats this cycle.

Both parties are taking an equally urgent tone in appealing to voters not to sit out the election.

"This is the most important election of our lifetime," DNC Chairman Tom Perez tweeted


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-goes-all-in-to-boost-gop-in-final-midterm-stretch-plans-ad-and-rally-blitz
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6558
Reputation: 304.6Reputation: 304.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another aspect of this that I just got wind of ... the Republicans have been spending much less on TV advertising up to this point. But now they have as much money as the Democrats ajd we can look forward to some highly produced footage from the caravan, or Pelosi calling for higher taxes ... or calling for open borders ...

They have momentum from the Kavanaugh debacle ... the Caravan focuses the attention on immigration ... Trump's top issue is coming to a head just as the election day approaches. But they have children to expose to the camera ... and tear-jerking moments.

There is a reason to believe that the participants are being paid. The participants are also being transported ... they will never make the distance as a 'caravan' on foot before election day. All signs point to the possibllity that this is a huge pseudo-event, an event staged purely for media consumption.

This is how elections are now fought. Created events to serve as focal points of campaigns, taking attention off of certain issues while putting it on these dramatizations.

Canada too. What do you think the Duffy trial was?
Toronto Centre





Joined: 12 Feb 2011
Posts: 1467
Reputation: 128.8
votes: 4
Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
A

There is a reason to believe that the participants are being paid.


And that reason is stated where ?
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

more new polls


Indiana senate - Donnelly incumbent democrat leads by only 1 point , whats interesting is the libertarian candidate is polling 8 % , more than enough to swing the race either way . will his support actually hold until e day


Montana Senate - democrat Tester leads by 3 points over republican Rosendale


Mississippi senate - incumbent republican , Wicker leads by 26 points


Mississippi senate special - Hyde Smith republican leads by 9 points but likely not enough to avoid a run off election


Georgia Governor - Kemp ( republican ) and Abrams ( Democrat ) are exactly tied at 48 % each , democrats are strong in urban Atlanta but generally don't win statewide races in Georgia so be interesting to see how this turns out

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GOP shows new strength in early voting, as midterm fight for control tightens


Gregg Re By Gregg Re | Fox News



Early voting numbers from several key battleground states now show Republican voters turning out in far greater numbers than Democratic ones, signaling an almost across-the-board GOP surge that is dulling the prospects of a so-called "blue wave" on Nov. 6.

Republican voters have taken the lead in turnout numbers in Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Texas, Tennessee, Florida and Arizona -- states that Fox News analyses show are the scenes of close and pivotal House, Senate and gubernatorial races


The results are most striking in Tennessee, where 63 percent of early voters are affiliated with the Republican Party, compared to only 30 percent aligned with the Democrats, according to a review of publicly available voting data conducted by NBC News.

Earlier this month, pop star Taylor Swift told her 110 million followers on Instagram that they should participate in early voting -- just a week after she wrote that Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn "appalls and terrifies" her, and declared that Democrat Phil Bredesen has her unequivocal support. But neither of Swift's calls to action appears to have been effective, based on early voting totals.

Republicans are similarly outpacing Democrats by 11 points in Arizona, 6 points in Florida, 9 points in Georgia, 12 points in Indiana, 17 points in Montana and 10 points in Texas, the analysis shows.


While results do not indicate which candidates or political party actually received the votes, analysts say it's common for more partisan voters to cast their ballots early.


The only state in which Democrats are edging out Republicans in early voting is Nevada, where they hold a 45-to-38 percent lead. Democrats have performed particularly well in Washoe County, which includes Reno: Democrats are leading Republicans by a margin of 9,150 to 7,071 in in-person early voting, although Republicans have a lead of about 600 votes in absentee and mail-in ballots.

Democrats' performance in Washoe during the first three days of early voting is particularly notable because Republicans hold an edge in voter registration there (99,675 to 94,520), but strong Republican performance in absentee ballots, coupled with a surge in rural votes during that period, was giving Democrats cause for concern.

"Three straight days of decisive Dem victories is stunning, but as the president often says: Let’s see what happens," wrote Jon Ralston, the editor of The Nevada Independent, who has called Washoe the "swing county" in Nevada.


"Democrats' late dominance in the air wars could produce several Election Night surprises."
— The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman

Based on a review of the entire state's voting data, Ralston concluded that even though turnout so far is unusually high, "it does not appear yet to be a wave election, as it was in 2014 (red) and 2016 (blue)." Total voting numbers are about three-quarters of the turnout during a presidential election year, Ralston said.

"More people usually vote in the second week than the first, and trends do not reverse," Ralston told Fox News over the weekend. "But this is not a usual year. ... We will know more in two or three days."


Nevada has played host to high-profile visits on behalf of both parties' candidates in recent days, although attendance numbers have been lopsided. President Trump's rally on Saturday in Elko County, Nevada, drew approximately four times the number of attendees as former President Obama's own rally in the state Monday. Obama took credit for the nation's booming economy during his speech, apparently seeking to blunt what has become one of Republicans' main points of emphasis.

The Elko Daily Free Press reported that Trump spoke to roughly 8,500 supporters at a regional airport in the northeastern Nevada mining town, while Obama addressed a crowd of roughly 2,000 at the Cox Pavilion at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, ABC News reported.


Still, history advises caution when considering early voting totals and on-the-ground indicators. In the 2016 presidential election, early voting trends were suggestive of Democratic strength in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada. In the end, Hillary Clinton only carried Nevada.


And there were signs, in polling and in fundraising, that Democrats will have a strong showing in the House, even as the Senate increasingly looks like a lock for Republicans to retain or even expand their majority. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday said eight House races had become more favorable for Democrats, while only two had shifted towards the Republican column.

"An astounding 112 Democrats outraised GOP opponents in Republican-held seats between July and September," The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman wrote Tuesday. "Of the 93 GOP incumbents who were outraised, 20 are currently in our Likely Republican column and 23 in Solid Republican. Democrats' late dominance in the air wars could produce several Election Night surprises."

Wasserman continued: "We continue to believe anywhere from a 20 to 40 seat Democratic gain is possible, but right now the likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 25 and 35 seats." (Democrats need to flip 24 Republican-held seats to retake a majority in the House, and 25 backed Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in 2016.)



Meanwhile, a recent poll conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal poll gave both sides cause for celebration. While the poll indicated that Democrats have a 4 percentage point edge over Republicans in midterm election interest, that figure stood at approximately 10 percent from January through September -- before divisive issues like the incoming migrant caravan from Central America and the contentious confirmation battle over Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh took center stage.

The poll also showed that President Trump's approval rating is up to 47 percent, the highest number he's notched while in office. That's a three-point jump from his standing in September.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/early-voting-tallies-point-to-strong-gop-enthusiasm-dulling-dems-hopes-of-blue-wave
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6558
Reputation: 304.6Reputation: 304.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toronto Centre wrote:
Bugs wrote:
A

There is a reason to believe that the participants are being paid.


And that reason is stated where ?


Why don't you do your own research? You know how to 'google'.

If it's any help, there's a video of the participants lined up and being "paid" a sum. Hundreds and hundreds of them. Apparently the money was doled out daily.

How do you imagine a growing number of people are attracted to this confrontation? What's the unemployment rate in Honduras, I wonder? What is in Chiapas? These people are going to walk to San Diego and claim refugee status. They were 2000 in the Honduras, now they say a lot more. It's a big group.

You know, when 10,000 people come tramping down the road, they are doing well to make 20 miles a day. At that rate, they'd do a 1000 miles every 7 weeks ... so they have to be transported to make the threat real ... and when 10,000 people hit your town, some of them will want to grab something to eat, and of course, they will have to have a dump ... the visit can be a lot less pleasant than you think.

This is obviously a staged event. There are refugees that arrive together because of war or a natural disaster perhaps Nothing like that is happening in Honduras -- which rivals San Salvadore as a murder capital. Not everybody, of course.

These people are being recruited to stage an event that will likely be chiefly important for the footage it generates. It isn't as if this is the best way to get into the US if you are determined to do it.

They know that Trump has to act, or he blows his base. The Democrats may not be the ones paying for it, but they are clearly using this as part of their open borders immigration campaign. They keep doubling down when stymied. The question is -- have they gone over the top on this one?

I can't see how they can win this way. To illustrate how screwed up politics is right now, both parties are content to campaign on Kavanaugh and the Caravan ... it puts the border issue front and centre. That's all we're going to hear when the noise level rises. This election will settle that issue.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( maybe just me but this election is starting to remind me of the 2004 US election , one the democrats though they'd win easily only to lose in the end . and afterwords there was a lot of anger directed at conservatives . seems like the same thing may be possible this year )



Senate slipping away as Dems fight to preserve blue wave

By STEVE PEOPLES, THOMAS BEAUMONT and LISA MASCAROOctober 24, 2018


A voter arrives as a worker walks past during early voting at a polling place in Charlotte, N.C., Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)


NEW YORK (AP) — In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.


“It’s always been an inside straight, and it still is,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats’ outlook in the Senate, where they need to pick up two seats while holding on to several others in Republican-leaning states to seize the majority. “If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot.”

While the trend may be troubling for Democrats, the evolving political landscape remains unsettled two weeks before Election Day, even with millions of votes already cast across 20 states.

There are signs that the Democrats’ position in the expanding House battlefield may actually be improving. Yet Republican candidates locked in tight races from New York to Nevada find themselves in stronger-than-expected positions because of a bump in President Donald Trump’s popularity, the aftermath of a divisive Supreme Court fight and the sudden focus on a caravan of Latin American migrants making an arduous trek toward the U.S. border.

Democrats say they never assumed it would be easy.

“It’s still much closer than people think, with a surprise or two in the wings,” New York’s Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, told The Associated Press.

The midterm elections will decide whether Republicans maintain control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s first term. Even if Democrats lose the Senate and win the House, they could block much of Trump’s agenda and use subpoena power to investigate his many scandals. Some in the party’s far-left wing have also vowed to impeach the president, while others promise to roll back the Republican tax overhaul and expand health care coverage for all Americans.

Democrats have enjoyed an overwhelming enthusiasm advantage for much of the Trump era. They hope an explosion of early voting across states like Florida, Texas and Nevada is further proof of their enthusiasm gap.


It took voters in the Houston area less than six hours Monday to set a new opening day record for early voting during a midterm election. And in some Florida counties, two and three times as many voters cast ballots on the first day of early voting Monday compared to four years ago.

Public and private polling, however, suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches.

“Republican enthusiasm doesn’t quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.

He also attributes the party’s strong position on an unusual Senate map. Democrats are defending 26 seats of the 35 seats in play, including 10 in states that Trump carried in 2016. Ayres calls it “maybe the most Republican-leaning map of our lifetimes.”

He expects the GOP to maintain the Senate majority, perhaps adding a seat or two to its current 51-49 edge. Others have begun to envision the GOP picking up as many as four or five new seats.

Democrats, meanwhile, have effectively protected their Senate candidates in states across the Midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that helped give Trump the presidency in 2016. They are increasingly pessimistic about picking up any seats, however.

The Tennessee Senate contest, in particular, has shifted sharply in Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s direction in recent weeks, while Democratic pickup opportunities in Arizona and Nevada are now considered toss-ups. In a measure of the deep uncertainty that has defined the Trump era, only one Democratic incumbent — North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp — is seen as most in danger of losing.

After Heitkamp, Democrats facing the greatest risk of defeat are Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and perhaps Bill Nelson of Florida. Texas Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke has shattered fundraising records and developed a national following, but polls have consistently given Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a significant lead against him.

In the race for the House, both sides acknowledge the prospect of a wipeout-style wave is shrinking.

It’s not that Democrats won’t be able to wrestle the House majority. But Republican lawmakers are increasingly optimistic, in part because of Trump’s recent performance as the GOP’s campaigner in chief.

Republicans say the often-volatile president has been surprisingly on-message during his campaign events, touting the strong economy and doubling down on the Kavanaugh fight to promote his efforts to fill courts with conservative jurists. And while Trump has been criticized by members of his own party for his handling of the case of the death of a Saudi journalist working for The Washington Post, operatives say the matter appears to be having little impact on voters.

On a conference call last week, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., urged rank-and-file lawmakers to pony up extra cash and help for tough races. They see hopeful signs in Iowa, Florida and Kansas.

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., emerged from the call saying it’s going to be a “dogfight” to the finish.

There are signs, however, that Democrats are expanding the House battlefield as Election Day approaches.

Republicans in recent days have pumped new money into House districts held by Republicans in Florida, Georgia, Virginia and New York, suggesting they’re on the defensive. Already, Democrats invested in nearly 80 races, including more than a dozen legitimate pickup opportunities in districts Trump carried by at least 9 points.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to claim the House majority.

The massive battlefield remains a problem for Republicans, who have struggled to match Democratic fundraising and face several first-time candidates not yet tainted by Washington.

Still, Dan Sena, the executive director of the House Democrats campaign arm, recently predicted Democrats would win the majority by only two seats.

The Republican shift is not playing out as planned.

The GOP hoped its tax cuts would fuel their midterm message. After they proved unpopular, Republicans largely abandoned their most significant policy achievement in the Trump era in favor of a more familiar message of anger and fear.

The super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, which is expected to spend $100 million before Election Day — most of it on attack ads — highlighted the shifting landscape in a memo to donors.

“The polling momentum that began with the Supreme Court confirmation hearings has continued, and the environment has continued to improve,” wrote Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. Still, he wrote, “20 races that will decide the majority remain a coin-flip.”

https://apnews.com/d97c666cf6fa4a42a7cadc9b9ac742de
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( maybe just me but this election is starting to remind me of the 2004 US election , one the democrats though they'd win easily only to lose in the end . and afterwords there was a lot of anger directed at conservatives . seems like the same thing may be possible this year )



Senate slipping away as Dems fight to preserve blue wave

By STEVE PEOPLES, THOMAS BEAUMONT and LISA MASCAROOctober 24, 2018


A voter arrives as a worker walks past during early voting at a polling place in Charlotte, N.C., Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)


NEW YORK (AP) — In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.


“It’s always been an inside straight, and it still is,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats’ outlook in the Senate, where they need to pick up two seats while holding on to several others in Republican-leaning states to seize the majority. “If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot.”

While the trend may be troubling for Democrats, the evolving political landscape remains unsettled two weeks before Election Day, even with millions of votes already cast across 20 states.

There are signs that the Democrats’ position in the expanding House battlefield may actually be improving. Yet Republican candidates locked in tight races from New York to Nevada find themselves in stronger-than-expected positions because of a bump in President Donald Trump’s popularity, the aftermath of a divisive Supreme Court fight and the sudden focus on a caravan of Latin American migrants making an arduous trek toward the U.S. border.

Democrats say they never assumed it would be easy.

“It’s still much closer than people think, with a surprise or two in the wings,” New York’s Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, told The Associated Press.

The midterm elections will decide whether Republicans maintain control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s first term. Even if Democrats lose the Senate and win the House, they could block much of Trump’s agenda and use subpoena power to investigate his many scandals. Some in the party’s far-left wing have also vowed to impeach the president, while others promise to roll back the Republican tax overhaul and expand health care coverage for all Americans.

Democrats have enjoyed an overwhelming enthusiasm advantage for much of the Trump era. They hope an explosion of early voting across states like Florida, Texas and Nevada is further proof of their enthusiasm gap.


It took voters in the Houston area less than six hours Monday to set a new opening day record for early voting during a midterm election. And in some Florida counties, two and three times as many voters cast ballots on the first day of early voting Monday compared to four years ago.

Public and private polling, however, suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches.

“Republican enthusiasm doesn’t quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.

He also attributes the party’s strong position on an unusual Senate map. Democrats are defending 26 seats of the 35 seats in play, including 10 in states that Trump carried in 2016. Ayres calls it “maybe the most Republican-leaning map of our lifetimes.”

He expects the GOP to maintain the Senate majority, perhaps adding a seat or two to its current 51-49 edge. Others have begun to envision the GOP picking up as many as four or five new seats.

Democrats, meanwhile, have effectively protected their Senate candidates in states across the Midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that helped give Trump the presidency in 2016. They are increasingly pessimistic about picking up any seats, however.

The Tennessee Senate contest, in particular, has shifted sharply in Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s direction in recent weeks, while Democratic pickup opportunities in Arizona and Nevada are now considered toss-ups. In a measure of the deep uncertainty that has defined the Trump era, only one Democratic incumbent — North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp — is seen as most in danger of losing.

After Heitkamp, Democrats facing the greatest risk of defeat are Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and perhaps Bill Nelson of Florida. Texas Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke has shattered fundraising records and developed a national following, but polls have consistently given Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a significant lead against him.

In the race for the House, both sides acknowledge the prospect of a wipeout-style wave is shrinking.

It’s not that Democrats won’t be able to wrestle the House majority. But Republican lawmakers are increasingly optimistic, in part because of Trump’s recent performance as the GOP’s campaigner in chief.

Republicans say the often-volatile president has been surprisingly on-message during his campaign events, touting the strong economy and doubling down on the Kavanaugh fight to promote his efforts to fill courts with conservative jurists. And while Trump has been criticized by members of his own party for his handling of the case of the death of a Saudi journalist working for The Washington Post, operatives say the matter appears to be having little impact on voters.

On a conference call last week, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., urged rank-and-file lawmakers to pony up extra cash and help for tough races. They see hopeful signs in Iowa, Florida and Kansas.

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., emerged from the call saying it’s going to be a “dogfight” to the finish.

There are signs, however, that Democrats are expanding the House battlefield as Election Day approaches.

Republicans in recent days have pumped new money into House districts held by Republicans in Florida, Georgia, Virginia and New York, suggesting they’re on the defensive. Already, Democrats invested in nearly 80 races, including more than a dozen legitimate pickup opportunities in districts Trump carried by at least 9 points.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to claim the House majority.

The massive battlefield remains a problem for Republicans, who have struggled to match Democratic fundraising and face several first-time candidates not yet tainted by Washington.

Still, Dan Sena, the executive director of the House Democrats campaign arm, recently predicted Democrats would win the majority by only two seats.

The Republican shift is not playing out as planned.

The GOP hoped its tax cuts would fuel their midterm message. After they proved unpopular, Republicans largely abandoned their most significant policy achievement in the Trump era in favor of a more familiar message of anger and fear.

The super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, which is expected to spend $100 million before Election Day — most of it on attack ads — highlighted the shifting landscape in a memo to donors.

“The polling momentum that began with the Supreme Court confirmation hearings has continued, and the environment has continued to improve,” wrote Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. Still, he wrote, “20 races that will decide the majority remain a coin-flip.”

https://apnews.com/d97c666cf6fa4a42a7cadc9b9ac742de
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

more new polls


- Montana , poll has democrat Tester leading by 9 points , although it seems to have sampled less republicans than the other poll


- Florida republican Rick Scott is leading by 1 point in one poll , other poll has democrat Nelson leading by 4 points


- Indiana , Braun republican is leading by 4 points , in a poll that only has the libertarian at 3 %


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8195
Reputation: 328.9Reputation: 328.9
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The President is going hard at Montana;
I am not sure why this is the targeted State when I am of the opinion that Indiana, Missouri, and Florida are more likely pick ups.

But what do I know?
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8195
Reputation: 328.9Reputation: 328.9
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I continue to be surprised at how close New Jersey is;

Bob Menendez is going to win, I have little doubt of that.
However the polling recently has Bob Hugin closer to Menendez than O'Rourke is to Ted Cruz in Texas.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 10068
Reputation: 322.1Reputation: 322.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I continue to be surprised at how close New Jersey is;

Bob Menendez is going to win, I have little doubt of that.
However the polling recently has Bob Hugin closer to Menendez than O'Rourke is to Ted Cruz in Texas.



there was also a New Jersey poll out today that says its 51 % Menendez and 46 % hugin , only a 5 point lead


but it does seem to be closer than expected
Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 28 of 38

Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 27, 28, 29 ... 36, 37, 38  Next  


 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum


2018 - US Midterm Elections

phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB