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RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:50 am    Post subject: Federal Liberals support plummets in new poll Reply with quote

( new national numbers from forum , 42 liberal , 34 cpc , 12 ndp , 6 green , 5 bloc , . there last poll had the liberals at 51 which was likely way too high to be accurate , but it does seem to indicate liberal numbers have come back to earth , although not sure how much it matters , its clear there strategy was to win a majority and then do whatever for the next 4 years much like Mcguinty in Ontario , you don't need to worry about the next election for a while )



Support for federal Liberals plummets, new poll shows


But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sees a just a small drop in his approval rating.


A new Forum Research poll shows support for the Liberals is down, but when those surveyed were asked how good a job they think the three main party leaders are doing, Justin Trudeau has the approval of 51 per cent. (CHRIS WATTIE / REUTERS file photo)



By Tonda MacCharlesOttawa Bureau reporter

Sat., Dec. 10, 2016



OTTAWA—After soaring in public approval for more than a year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals tumbled last month in a new poll that reflects a prime minister and key ministers struggling to balance ambitious electoral promises and the hard realities of governing.

A new Forum Research poll conducted at the beginning of the week shows the Liberals dropped from 51 per cent a month ago to 42 per cent nationally.

Much of the erosion for the federal Liberals appears to have come in B.C. and Ontario, where the Liberals and the Conservatives find themselves nearly tied for support.

In the past month, the Conservatives’ national approval rating under interim leader Rona Ambrose ticked up to 34 per cent from 28. That narrows a recent gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives — who do not yet have a permanent replacement for Stephen Harper — from 23 percentage points to just eight points.

There was no significant change for the New Democratic Party, which stands stalled at 12 per cent, nor for the Greens at 6 or the Bloc Québécois at 5 per cent.



The Liberals would still win a smaller but comfortable 10-seat majority government with those numbers. And regardless of party preference, when those surveyed were asked how good a job they think the three main party leaders are doing, Justin Trudeau has the approval of 51 per cent. More than a year in, he enjoys sky-high approval among Liberal voters and nearly half of NDP voters approve of the job he’s doing as prime minister.

But it is nevertheless a fall to earth politically after a 13-month post-election honeymoon high that had seen partisans of all stripes enthusiastically embrace the young prime minister and his gender-balanced government.

“I think the Trudeaumania, whatever you want to call it, last year that pulled some Tory supporters onto the Liberal bandwagon, that’s probably done now,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff.


The poll comes as Trudeau and his ministers have endured a barrage inside and outside the Commons over tone and substance on a range of questions including its approval of two major oil pipelines and how it would handle protests, its dismissal of a parliamentary report urging electoral reform, and its response to the death of former Cuban president Fidel Castro.

The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, plumbed public reaction to those issues:

•On pipelines:


The poll found 47 per cent agreed with Trudeau’s approvals of an expanded Trans Mountain Edmonton-Burnaby, B.C. pipeline, and of an Alberta-to-Wisconsin pipeline extension known as Line 3, as well as Trudeau’s rejection of the Northern Gateway Alberta-to-northern B.C. coast pipeline project. Another 20 per cent of those surveyed said they didn’t know whether they agreed or disagreed with the decisions, while 33 per cent opposed.

•On electoral reform:


The poll found strong support for a referendum and for a change from the current “first-past-the-post” voting system.


The survey shows 64 per cent support the idea of a referendum before changes are made to the way we elect MPs. Opposition to a referendum was just 23 per cent and 14 per cent said they didn’t know. Even a majority of Liberal supporters — 55 per cent — supported a referendum.



The firm surveyed 1,304 randomly selected Canadians by telephone using an interactive voice response poll. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage point, 19 times out of 20.


Where appropriate, results of the survey have been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

Forum houses its complete results in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/12/10/support-for-federal-liberals-plummets-new-poll-shows.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Major Reset in Federal Vote Share

December 10, 2016 @ 10:00 AM | Filed under: National, Social Issues


Major Reset in Federal Vote Share

Liberals down, Conservatives up, approvals too

TORONTO December 8th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1304 Canadian voters, the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives, measured at 23 points last month on the day after Donald Trump’s election, narrowed to just 8 points today.

If an election were held today, just more than 4-in-10 would vote Liberal (42%), compared to more than half last month (November 10 - 51%). During the same period, the Conservative vote share has increased from somewhat more than a quarter (28%) to more than a third now (34%), leaving the two parties 8 points apart. No change has occurred with respect to the New Democrat vote (November 10 - 11%, now - 12%). Few will vote Green (6%) or for the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or for another party (1%).

The Liberals no longer lead in every region but Alberta, and they are behind in the prairies and tied in BC. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still lead commandingly (66%) compared to the Conservatives (23%). In Quebec, the Liberals lead by less (45%), while the rest of the vote is split between the Conservatives (18%) and Bloquistes (19%). The NDP has a tenth share (13%). In vote-rich Ontario, where elections are won and lost, The Liberals (41%) are virtually tied with the Conservatives (39%), while the NDP has a tenth share again (12%). In the prairies, the Conservatives (43%) lead the Liberals (37%), and the NDP do their best here (16%). In Alberta, the Conservatives still lead convincingly (57%) over the Liberals (32%) and the NDP doesn’t contend (8%). In BC, the two parties are tied (Liberals - 36%, Conservatives - 35%).

Smaller Liberal majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take a 10 seat majority of 180 seats, to 135 for the Conservatives, 18 for the NDP, four for the Bloc and one for the Green Party.

Trudeau favourables down, Ambrose up

Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of Canadians (51%), down from more than this a month ago (November 10 - 58%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +12, but is down from last month (November 10 - +26). His approval is strongest among the youngest ((57%), females (59%), in Atlantic Canada (82%) and mothers (66%). He has the approval of virtually all Liberals (90%) and one half of New Democrats (49%).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of more than a third now (36%), up from 3-in-10 last month (November 10 - 30%). Her net score is a favourable +9, up from +3 last month. She has the approval of 6-in-10 Conservatives (59%).

Tom Mulcair is approved of by just more than a third (35%), similar to his approval last month (November 10 - 33%). His net favourable score is a neutral +1, similar to last month’s score of 0. Mulcair has the approval of two thirds of his members (67%), and 4-in-10 Liberals (41%).

Justin Trudeau still seen as best Prime Minister

Four-in-ten voters see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (40%), and the next largest vote is for “none of these” (17%). Tom Mulcair (12%) and Rona Ambrose (14%). are basically tied in third place. Four-in-ten Conservatives see Rona Ambrose as best at the job (43%), half of New Democrats favour their current leader (48%), but virtually all Liberals see Trudeau as the best at the job (83%).

“There is no question that the high flying Liberals have been brought down hard this month. It may be the Trump Effect, it may be the confluence of a number of tough decisions, including pipelines, occurring at once, and some may be attributed to recent missteps on the part of the Prime Minister. Nonetheless, he remains remarkably popular and his party is still in majority territory, for now," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.



Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....ote-share/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

more detailed info Is on the forum site and downloadable polling data


at 42 % its the lowest level for the liberals in a forum poll since the oct 2015 election


Regions

Ontario - 41 liberal , 39 cpc , 12 ndp , 6 green

BC - 36 liberal , 35 cpc , 14 green , 13 ndp

Alberta - 57 cpc , 32 liberal , 8 ndp , 3 green

Quebec - 45 liberal , 18 cpc , 19 bloc , 13 ndp , 4 green

Sask / Man - 43 cpc , 37 liberal , 16 ndp , 4 green

Atlantic - 66 liberal , 23 cpc , 6 ndp , 5 green

also is a seat projection

liberal 180 , cpc 135 , ndp 18 , bloc 4 , green 1

( last poll had liberals predicted to win 257 seats with opposition only winning 80 seats in total )

Age

65 plus - liberal 45 , cpc 34 , ndp 11 , green 5 , bloc 5

55-65 - liberal 41 , cpc 34 , ndp 14 , green 4 , bloc 6

45-54 - liberal 39 , cpc 38 , ndp 9 , green 8 , bloc 5

35-44 - liberal 43 , cpc 32 , ndp 13 , green 6 , bloc 5

18-34 - liberal 44 , cpc 30 , ndp 13 , green 6 , bloc 7


( I find the age chart rather surprising , first off the cpc is not leading or doing nearly as well with older voters than in the past , usually would lead the 65 plus category at least when harper was PM , that was always pretty much a given but somehow trudeau was found a way in . its actually the liberals strongest age group which is rather shocking considering past results

the ndp and greens also aren't doing that well among younger voters , ndp at 13 % is about the same among younger voters as other ages , which also was not the case in the past , the ndp would often do very well among the younger crowd , another case where trudeau has found a way in , the conservatives at 30% are also doing better among younger voters than one would expect , was often an age group they'd struggle with

but whats interesting where trudeau is losing ground is among middle aged voters , which was also the case in the past ekos poll which had similar numbers , the cpc and liberals are tied among 45-54 crowd , something seems to be driving these voters away from the liberals , perhaps economic issues or other reasons ? its not clear yet why )
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As long as the Liberals are polling at 45% in Quebec, they will be hard to beat.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
As long as the Liberals are polling at 45% in Quebec, they will be hard to beat.



the polling in quebec is much different than what we were used to , but I don't know if liberal support there is really that overwhelming , was just 4 provincial by-elections last week and only 1 went liberal , the CAQ a conservative like party won a by-election in arthabaska which is part of the federal conservative riding of Richmond arthabaska , the PQ also won 2 by-elections , one in a riding which is part of a bloc riding north of montreal and another in Longeuil a past bloc area .


looking at the poll , the demographics don't favour the liberals as much as one would think , there support is dropping among middle aged Canadians and growing among older and younger voters , 2 groups I see as somewhat unreliable moving forward
.
the older 65 plus are more likely to vote and show up at the polls , however that group is aging and some who support trudeau today will have passed away by the next election ,
the younger voters are also highly unreliable , turnout was high last election but no one thinks those numbers are going to stay that high moving forward , this group is less likely to vote


the polls also are showing such high liberal numbers because there support out east is into the 50's or 60's in some polls , they hold every seat on the east coast so there is nothing to gain , it doesn't matter if they go up in this region in the polls , it makes the national numbers look better than they really are

also its highly unlikely they keep every east coast riding for years to come , New Brunswick in 2011 almost every seat went cpc , I can't see the conservatives not at least winning a couple back the next election ,
is also a number of mp's who will almost certainty retire in PEI and Nova Scotia , some have been mp's since the 80's , some ridings won't have incumbents and be harder to hold .
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a detailed poll on Justin Trudeau's approval ratings , they have gone down in most regions of the country , especially Ontario and Saskatchewan )


Is the Honeymoon ending? Trudeau’s declining job approval in Ontario drives ten-point national slide

Number of Ontarians who approve of PM’s job performance drops 16 points since September


December 15, 2016 – In a sign ardour for the Prime Minister may be cooling, the number of Canadians who say they approve of the job Justin Trudeau is doing has dropped ten points over the last three months.

A majority – 55 per cent – continue to express confidence in the PM’s performance. And while this level of approval may well be the envy of prime ministers past and future, it also represents the lowest approval he has recorded at any point since his Liberal Party won a majority mandate in last October’s election.

The Angus Reid Institute’s latest quarterly analysis of public opinion data from more than 5,000 Canadian adults comes as the Trudeau government weighs in on a number of energy and climate change issues, from approving liquefied natural gas and pipeline developments – which angered some – to adopting a Canada-wide agreement on carbon pricing – which angered others.

Though these decisions may have cost Trudeau some goodwill, plummeting approval of Ontario Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne may also be having a notable impact on what people in Canada’s most populous province think of the Liberal Prime Minister.

Key Findings:feddecmetho
•Satisfaction with government performance on a variety of files – including the economy – decreased alongside the PM’s overall approval rating
•Most Canadians feel either “pleased” (36%) or “neutral” (37%) about the government’s decision to approve Kinder Morgan’s TransMountain pipeline expansion project. Albertans voice the most support, while Quebec, B.C., and Ontario residents offer the most opposition
•Nearly three-in-ten (29%) say they expect their standard of living to worsen in the next 12 months – the highest number expressing this worry since this quarterly study began in 2010. Those with “middle class” incomes – a key focus of the Trudeau government – express only marginally less worry (26%)

Index:

•PART 1 – Is the honeymoon ending?


•PART 2 – Threading the needle on energy and the environment


•PART 3 – Economic uncertainty and the year ahead


PART 1: Is the honeymoon ending?

More than half of all Canadians (55%) still approve of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s job performance, but, as previously mentioned, that number is down 10 percentage points since September, the biggest change in opinion on him in more than a year.

That said, Trudeau’s approval rating remains well above where it was shortly after last year’s election campaign began:

feddec1

Further, Trudeau remains more popular with Canadians than either Interim Conservative Party leader Rona Ambrose (35% approve of her) or New Democratic Party Leader Tom Mulcair (43% approve of him), both of whom are due to be replaced as party leaders in 2017.

The drop in the PM’s approval rating corresponds with decreases in satisfaction with a variety of issues, many of which had – until now – been increasing:

feddec2

The PM’s approval rating has fallen in every region of the country since September, but the drop is most significant in the Liberal Party’s historical stronghold of Ontario. There, 53 per cent of respondents approve of Trudeau, down 16 points from last quarter.

Some may suggest Trudeau’s amicable relationship with Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne – the two have campaigned enthusiastically for each other over the years – could play a role in this. Recent Angus Reid Institute quarterly approval rankings found Wynne to be the country’s least popular provincial leader, at just 16 per cent approval.

feddec3

Another notable sign of the ebbing goodwill toward Trudeau? Hardening opinions among those who lean toward the left of the political spectrum. Since taking office, Trudeau has enjoyed high levels of approval among these Canadians, regardless of whether they voted for the Liberal Party in 2015. Last quarter, for example, in addition to having the approval of nine-in-ten Liberals (91%), Trudeau enjoyed the favour of fully three-quarters of NDP voters (75%) and two-thirds of Green Party supporters (67%).

This quarter, views of his job performance have dropped across the political spectrum:

feddec4

On some level, the recently concluded parliamentary session was always going to be challenging one for the Trudeau government. It was the sitting in which the government moved from talking about its agenda to attempting to implement it, with mixed results from a public opinion standpoint.

Among the possible reasons for the slip in Trudeau’s approval ratings this quarter are his Liberal Party’s continued use of “cash-for-access” fundraisers, a practice he has repeatedly defended. This week, Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson revealed she will question the Prime Minister over whether he breached the Conflict of Interest Act by attending such fundraisers.

And the government’s perceived reticence to make good on its promise that the 2015 federal election would be the last one conducted under the current “first-past-the-post” system has surely done the Prime Minister no favours with left-leaning voters, many of whom have long led the charge for a more proportional electoral system.

Related: Two alternate voting systems seen as competitive to First Past the Post

The approval of Kinder Morgan’s TransMountain pipeline expansion project may also have hurt Trudeau’s reputation among certain Canadians. The decision has been met with vocal opposition in some circles, though the majority of Canadians either feel pleased or neutral toward the decision, as will be discussed in the following section.

PART 2: Threading the needle on energy and the environment

In late September, the government approved plans for a liquefied natural gas terminal on British Columbia’s north coast. Then, just days later, it announced its plans to require provincial governments to put a price on carbon emissions – either through a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system – by 2018. If provinces failed to adopt such a policy before the deadline, the federal government would impose a carbon tax on them directly.

More recently, the Trudeau government approved Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement project and Kinder Morgan’s TransMountain pipeline expansion, while rejecting the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline (also an Enbridge project). This, after announcing $1.5 billion in funding for coastal protections at a press conference in Vancouver in early November.

Taken together, these decisions represent the government’s approach to the challenging dual-issue of mitigating the effects of climate change in a nation with an economy heavily invested in extracting and exporting fossil fuels.

How do Canadians feel their government has fared in its attempts to meet this challenge? The largest individual group of Canadians (40%) say the government has “struck the right balance between economic growth and environmental protection,” as seen in the following graph:

feddec5

Among those who think the government has been unbalanced in its approach, slightly more think it has leaned too far toward economic growth than think it has tilted disproportionately toward the environment.

This latter view – that the Trudeau government has been too focused on the environment – is considerably more prevalent in the energy-producing provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. All other regions of the country are at least equally likely to say the government has been too focused on the resource economy, as seen in the graph that follows.

feddec6

Notably, in Manitoba and more easterly regions, the most common response is that government has found the “right balance” (see summary tables attached at the end of this release).

B.C. divided, Alberta on board for Kinder Morgan decision

Of the federal government’s recent energy and climate change decisions, approving the TransMountain project has been arguably the most hotly debated. It drew harsh criticism from Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, who called it “a step backward for Canada’s economy, environment, and climate change.” Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, meanwhile, was delighted with the decision, saying the federal government had shown “extraordinary leadership.”

As might be expected, it is the two provinces where TransMountain is located – Alberta and B.C. – where residents have been paying closest attention to media coverage of the pipeline.

Nearly three-quarters of British Columbians (73%) say they have been seeing “some” or “a lot of” coverage of the issue, as do a majority of Alberta residents (61%). Those living farther east – especially in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces – are less likely to be paying attention.

Overall, the Canadian public’s reaction to the approval of the TransMountain project is more positive than negative. Some 36 per cent say they are pleased with the government’s decision, while 27 per cent say they are upset. The largest group (37%) express no opinion, saying they feel “neutral” about the decision.

These views vary considerably by region, however. In B.C., roughly equal numbers are pleased and upset, while residents of Alberta and Saskatchewan are overwhelmingly pleased.

Frustration with the decision is strongest in British Columbia and Quebec, but the latter distinguishes itself as the only province in which those upset outnumber those who are pleased:

feddec7

Again, those living farther east feel less strongly about this issue. The percentage of respondents choosing “neutral” rises to more than two-in-five between Manitoba and Atlantic Canada (see summary tables at the end of this release).

PART 3: Economic uncertainty and the year ahead

By approving natural resource projects, the federal government no doubt hopes to kick-start a sluggish economy, particularly in Alberta, where earlier this year the provincial unemployment rate eclipsed the national average for the first time since 1988.

The jobs story unfolding at the end of 2016 is one of competing narratives. While it is true that the number of jobs has increased by more than 180,000 since November, 2015, resulting in a lower unemployment rate overall, the quality of jobs has been questioned. Full-time employment dropped by 30,000 jobs, while the number of Canadians working part time increased by 214,000 people.

Statistics Canada attributed the slight decrease in the unemployment rate between October and November of this year to a decrease in the number of Canadians looking for work, rather than an increase in available jobs. Those who are not actively searching for work are not counted in the unemployment rate.

feddec8

Canadians are most likely to name “the economy” as one of the most important issues facing the country today (some 34% do so). Another one-in-five (20%) identify jobs and unemployment as an issue of top concern.

As they have been for years, people are more likely to say their standard of living has worsened over the last 12 months than to say it has improved. Roughly half (53%) say they’ve seen no change, while the “worsened” camp is roughly two and a half times as large as the “improved” camp:

feddec9

Notably, Canadians are also more likely than ever to say they anticipate their standard of living worsening in the next year. Almost three-in-ten (29%) expect 2017 to be worse than 2016, the largest number expressing economic anxiety for the upcoming 12 months since this quarterly survey began:

feddec10

Despite the Trudeau government’s explicit focus on improving economic conditions for the middle class, those in the middle-income group are not significantly more confident about the coming year than others. Close to three-in-ten respondents from each income category say they expect their standard of living to diminish over the next 12 months:

feddec11

Regionally, however, much more disparity of opinion is found. Those living in the resource-extracting provinces of Alberta (35%), Saskatchewan (34%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (40%) are more likely to have a negative outlook.

feddec12


While economic anxiety has so far not seemed especially correlated with approval of Justin Trudeau and his government, history suggests that continued pessimism about the economy will eventually be blamed on Ottawa.


http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2016/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the new abacus poll has somewhat different numbers than the other new poll )


After My Democracy, Castro, ‘cash for access’, pipelines, climate plan, Liberals end the year well ahead, but off their summer peak

December 17, 2016


By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Our latest nationwide public opinion survey explored a wide variety of topics. Our first release describes at the current state of federal politics, including reactions to a variety of events and decisions.

Here’s what we see:

Party support has seen some softening in recent weeks, but remains at levels roughly equal to the result on election day just over a year ago. The number of people who would consider voting Liberal today is 59%, off the highs of late summer, but still substantially ahead of their political rivals (NDP at 47%, CPC at 46%).



Current voting intentions show 44% would vote Liberal, 30% CPC, and 16% NDP, reflecting a 5-point increase in CPC support from November. Compared to last election day, the Liberals are up 4 points, the Conservatives down 2, and the NDP down 4.


In the provinces with the largest number of seats, the Liberals continue to lead by substantial, but not as robust margins, compared to November. In Ontario, the Liberals would win the support of 47%, the Conservatives 35% and the NDP just 13%. In Quebec, the Liberals find support from 46%, the NDP 21%, and the Conservatives 14%, with the BQ at 13%. In BC, Liberal support is at 42%, down from the 46% we measured in November, while Conservative support is up from 21% to 25%, and the NDP is at 21%, essentially unchanged from November, but off the lows measured in the summer.


Compared to the Election Day result last year, the Liberals are in a roughly equivalent place in Ontario and BC, and considerably stronger in Quebec.


In Alberta, the Liberals (29%) trail the Conservatives (56%), with the NDP at 7%, this is unchanged from our last wave. In Saskatchewan, the Conservatives have 51% followed by the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 15%. In Manitoba, the Liberals (40%) and the Conservatives (37%) are neck and neck. Across Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 55% support, well ahead of the NDP at 19% and the Conservatives at 18%, again unchanged from November.

The Liberals advantage continues to be based on dominating the NDP (56% to 21%) among self described “left of centre” voters and being more than 20 points ahead of both other parties among voters who say they are on the centre of the spectrum. The Conservatives enjoy a dominant two thirds support among those who consider themselves to be “right of centre” with the Liberals winning 25% of right of centre voters.

REACTION TO EVENTS

We explored reaction to a series of 8 events in the last several weeks of this Parliamentary sitting, from the mydemocracy.ca questionnaire, to the Prime Minister’s reaction to the death of Fidel Castro, and the decisions on three pipelines. Here’s what we found:

For all 8 items tested half or more said they either that they hadn’t heard of these topics or that they had no impact on their views of the government.

• Fundraising by the Liberal Party and the PM has been a topic of considerable coverage and political skirmishing in recent weeks. 31% say they haven’t heard about this, and another 32% say it has had no impact on their views, 27% said it made them feel worse about the Trudeau government, 9% better.

• The Prime Minister’s reaction to the death of Fidel Castro had an impact on about half of Canadians, by a margin of 2:1 people seemed disappointed in his reaction.

• The government substantially positive reviews for the decision to put Viola Desmond on a banknote: 37% said it made them feel better about the government, 6% worse.

• 3 out of 4 people had no awareness of or reaction to the government’s reaction to the Electoral Reform committee report and the mydemocracy.ca online consultation.

• While the online consultation attracted some criticism, the impact on public opinion was fairly muted: 14% said the mydemocracy.ca initiative made them feel better about the government, 14% worse.

The government reaction to the committee report produced more negative reactions, suggesting disappointment in the tone and substance, but still only 18% said this choice made them feel worse about the government.

PIPELINE DECISIONS IN DEPTH

All three pipeline decisions were slight net positives, in terms of the public reaction, on a national basis.

In the case of the rejection of Northern Gateway, 25% said it made them feel better about the Trudeau government, 20% worse.

For the Kinder Morgan and Enbridge Line 3 approvals, 25% said these project approvals made them feel better, 18% worse about the government.

In BRITISH COLUMBIA, 39% said the approval of Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the Trudeau government compared to 25% who said it made them feel better. 36% either didn’t hear about the decision or said it made no impact. Rejection of the Northern Gateway pipeline created an opposite reaction, with 37% saying it improved their view of the government while 21% said it made them feel worse about it.

In ALBERTA, half said the government’s decision to approve the Line 3 and Trans Mountain made them feel better about the Trudeau government while only 5% and 7% said it made them feel worse. 46% said the rejection of Northern Gateway made them feel worse compared with 13% who said it made them feel better.

In QUEBEC, where support for pipelines generally has been lower than in other parts of the country, two thirds said they hadn’t heard of the government’s decisions or said the decisions had no impact on their view of the government. One in four Quebecers said the decision to reject Northern Gateway made them feel better while 10% said it made them feel worse about the Trudeau government.

Among 2015 Liberal voters, 16% said the decision to approve Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the government while 27% said it made them feel better. The majority hadn’t heard of the decision or said it made no difference.

Among Conservative voters, 41% said the decision made them feel better about the government while 11% said it made them feel worse.

Among NDP voters 35% said the Trans Mountain approval made them feel worse while 20% said it made them feel better about the Trudeau government.

On the Northern Gateway decision, the pattern is reversed. NDP voters were more likely to say the decision made them feel better than worse (37% better vs. 10% worse) while Conservative voters were more likely to react negatively (48% worse vs. 12% better). Liberal voters reacted favourably with 35% saying they feel better about the government after its Northern Gateway decision while 9% feel worse about the government.

To assess the political implications of these choices and events, it’s useful to remove the impact of harder core partisan views and focus on the voters who are “in play”. If we look only at voters who say they would vote Liberal today, but would also consider voting for another party (“Liberal Losable”, who amount to 24% of the population as a whole) here’s what this analysis shows:

• On 6 of the 8 items tested the majority were not affected in terms of any change in feeling towards the government. Only the banknote decision and the rejection of Northern Gateway had an impact on more than half of this voter group, and decidedly positive in both cases.

• Between 6% and 15% of these Liberal voters feel worse about the government based on a variety of these events, but in each case, equal or larger numbers said the item made them feel better about the government.

• The two biggest net positives for the government with these voters were the Northern Gateway decision and the Viola Desmond choice. Both pipelines that were approved had a positive impact on about a quarter and a negative impact on 15%-16%.

If we look at those who are not voting Liberal now or are undecided but would consider voting Liberal (“Liberal Winnables” who amount to 25% of the population), we find:

• Most of the events had little affect thus far on feelings about the federal government. Putting Viola Desmond on a banknote had the greatest potential pull for the Liberals. Rejecting Northern Gateway also had a net positive effect.

• The pipeline approvals had a mixed effect. Electoral reform matters had little effect. The fundraising questions had the largest net negative impact, with 21% saying it made them feel worse about the government and 7% better.

THE UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“The choices the government has been making on energy and climate policy are probably the most politically challenging ones they face, in terms of trying to sustain support among a broad coalition of voters across the spectrum.

So far, the combination of decisions on carbon pricing, pipelines, and shifting energy use, is landing relatively well. Some are disappointed with a pipe that’s approved, others with a pipe that’s rejected. Some think the carbon price is too low or too slow, while others feel the opposite way. However, in terms of the overall impact on the support levels for the government, making choices on these controversial issues probably could have gone a lot worse. Of course, it’s fair to observe that the debate on the Trans Mountain pipeline is far from over – and the full impact will only be known over time.

Of the other issues and events we looked at, the debate about Liberal fundraising practices is the one that looks as though it could have some corrosive effect on Liberal support – but the impact so far has been pretty modest.

The results on the other matters we explored are another reminder that (remember Elbowgate) a lot of what else generates heat in day to day politicking in Ottawa goes unnoticed outside the smallish community of people who are highly tuned into politics.”

According to David Coletto:

“As the year comes to an end, the political environment in Canada looks much like it did at the start of the year. The Liberals hold commanding leads in Canada’s three largest provinces and have more support than on Election Day in October 2015.

In the past month, the Trudeau government has made some difficult decisions about pipelines, faced scrutiny over its fundraising practices, and criticism for its handling of its electoral reform pledge. The pipeline decisions seem to have been accepted by most Canadians as a reasonable balance. Even in BC, where 39% say the decision to approve Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the government, Liberal support is unchanged, and still above what the party received in the last election.

We have seen a decline in the pool of accessible voters for the Liberals, but we’ve seen a similar decline for three of the four major parties. In November 2015, 70% of Canadians said they would consider voting Liberal. Today, it’s down to 59%, the same level we found in the final weeks of the federal election campaign. Governing for a year has shrunk the tent a bit, but the Liberals remain in a far better place than any of their rivals.

The results also shed some light on the difference between what we in the “Ottawa bubble” focus on and think as consequential, and what the public hears and reacts to. The debate about electoral reform is a case in point. Over four in ten Canadians have not even heard of about the mydemocracy.ca consultation or the government’s reaction to the electoral reform committee recommendations. And among those who have, few have reacted in either a positive or negative way suggesting even after a barrage of negative commentary, the public has not really noticed nor cared.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/
- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/after-my-.....KUPWv.dpuf

http://abacusdata.ca/after-my-.....mmer-peak/
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gap narrows between Liberals and Conservatives

January 24, 2017 @ 6:00 AM | Filed under: National




Gap narrows between Liberals and Conservatives

Liberal’s maintain majority if election were held today

Toronto, January 22nd – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1,332 Canadian voters, the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives, measured at eight points last month, shrunk to just six points today.

Amongst decided and leaning voters, Liberal support has remained steady at (42%), but Conservative support has increased to (36%), up two percentage points since last month (December 8: 34%).

The increase in Conservative support comes at the expense of the Greens (5%) and Bloc Quebecois (4%) – each is down a point since December (December 8: Greens 6%, Bloc Quebecois 5%). NDP support remains unchanged (12%).

In British Columbia the Liberals (37%) are no longer tied with the Conservatives (32%) and have extended a notable lead in the province.

In the Atlantic region, the Liberals are steady at (66%) while the Conservatives are down slightly (21%).

In Quebec, the Liberals have lost support (42%) since December (Dec 8 - 45%), and the Conservatives have seen their support rise to (21%). The Bloc Quebecois see a slight dip in January to (17%), down from December (December 10: 19%). Support for the NDP is at (13%).

Ontario sees modest increases for both the Liberals (44%) and the Conservatives (42%), and a decrease for the NDP (10%).

In the prairies support for the Conservatives is still very strong (45%) and they've increased their lead over the Liberals (34%) from six to eleven points since December. (December 8: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 37%). The NDP has their strongest base of support here, and saw an increase in their support (18%).

Voter support in Alberta still belongs to the Conservatives (61%), who saw their lead extend twelve points (37%) over the Liberals (24%) in January. The NDP saw its total rise to (10%).

Despite rising Conservative support, Liberals maintain majority

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would see a 187 seat majority.

The Conservatives would win 131 seats, the NDP would secure 15, the Bloc 4, and the Green Party 1.

Since December, this represents a gain of 7 seats for the Liberals, a loss of 4 seats by the Conservatives, and a loss of 3 seats by the NDP. (December 8: Liberals 180, Conservatives 135, and the NDP 18)

Trudeau, Ambrose, and Mulcair all see favourables dip

The favourables of all three party leaders have decreased in January.

Justin Trudeau has the strongest approval of any party leader (48%), this is down three points since December (December 8: 51%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has been cut in half since December, it now sits at +6. His approval is strongest among the youngest (55%), females (54%), and in Atlantic Canada (73%). He has the approval of virtually all Liberals (85%) and one half of New Democrats (48%).

Rona Ambrose does not reach the approval level of Justin Trudeau, hers rests at (33%). Her net favourable score now sits only one point behind the Prime Minister at +5.

Tom Mulcair has seen his disapproval rating (34%) exceed his approval rating (31%), which makes his net favourable score the worst of the three, at -3, down four points since December (December 8: +1)

Justin Trudeau remains first choice for best Prime Minister

Just under forty percent (38%) see Justin Trudeau as the best choice for Prime Minister. The second choice, for the second month in a row, is "none of these," which garnered (22%). "None of these" is up five percentage points since December (Dec 8: 17%), corresponding with the net favourable loss suffered by all three leaders in January.

"While Justin Trudeau's popularity has taken a significant hit over the past months, there is no doubt his Liberals are a loyal force. Their support is holding steady, and despite an increase in Conservative fortunes, the Liberals would see their hold on the house of commons grow if an election were held today," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....ervatives/
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the forum poll has some other interesting items hidden in it

>First one I noticed was the liberals and trudeau personally have lost a lot of ground among "male " voters , trudeau is still popular with women but among men the poll gave these numbers

from a sample of 666 men

cpc 43 , lib 36 , ndp 11 , 4 green , 5 bloc

but I though this one was even more stunning , trudeau's approval rating among men is now negative

42 approve , 51 disapprove , 7 don't know

so clearly men have really started to sour on trudeau , especially men 45-65 years old


>Secondly they have these numbers for "alberta " which make me wonder why they are so optimistic about the 2 Calgary by elections ? and decided to hold a cabinet meeting there

according to the poll in alberta its - 61 cpc , 24 lib , 10 ndp , 3 green

with those numbers I can't possibly see either of the 2 Calgary seats flipping to the liberals , it seem to defy sensible logic


>Thirdly Ontario is actually very close , some pollsters like to claim trudeau is well ahead and doing great like Nanos as an example but according to this poll in the province with the most seats and votes its basically tied , true he is doing much better than Kathleen Wynne but he is not doing as great as some liberals in the past did here


44 lib , 42 cpc , 10 ndp , 4 green

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....Release%20(012217).pdf
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

>Thirdly Ontario is actually very close , some pollsters like to claim trudeau is well ahead and doing great like Nanos as an example but according to this poll in the province with the most seats and votes its basically tied , true he is doing much better than Kathleen Wynne but he is not doing as great as some liberals in the past did here


44 lib , 42 cpc , 10 ndp , 4 green



That is pretty interesting.
In 2006 the Liberals had a 5% lead over the CPC in Ontario and the seats went 54 - 40 for the LPC, granted it all depends where the CPC and LPC vote is concentrated.

My best guess is that ridings in Southwestern, Midwestern, and Northern Ontario are likely the ones most likely to flip in an election.

However seats in Halton Region could be in play as well?
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:

>Thirdly Ontario is actually very close , some pollsters like to claim trudeau is well ahead and doing great like Nanos as an example but according to this poll in the province with the most seats and votes its basically tied , true he is doing much better than Kathleen Wynne but he is not doing as great as some liberals in the past did here


44 lib , 42 cpc , 10 ndp , 4 green



That is pretty interesting.
In 2006 the Liberals had a 5% lead over the CPC in Ontario and the seats went 54 - 40 for the LPC, granted it all depends where the CPC and LPC vote is concentrated.

My best guess is that ridings in Southwestern, Midwestern, and Northern Ontario are likely the ones most likely to flip in an election.

However seats in Halton Region could be in play as well?



the Ontario numbers weren't that surprising as there has been other polls that showed Ontario close and provincially the OLP is way behind the Ontario pc's

the numbers among "men " are new and surprising to see he's doing that bad at 50 % disapproval , although he still has strong support among women so it balances out

the way I look at it , the liberals have a strong salesman but there product is starting to "stink " , women like him so there still buying but men are ready to go back to the cpc or maybe men don't like the salesman either at this point I don't know
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The biggest problem for the Liberals is how they handle Trump, and whatever challenge he puts to NAFTA.

If I read the tea leaves correctly, Canada is not a target. True, we have a positive balance of payments with the US, but we don't cost them jobs, so it shouldn't be a terrible problem. They could end up looking like saviours out of it.

The Liberals are doing as well as could be expected, as far as voters are concerned. They are simply returning to Chretien levels of support. My fear is that we are back to the old electoral patterns, with the Liberals holding Quebec, and being able to pick up enough seats in English-speaking Canada to be the default choice.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( it turns out the tour hasn't helped as support for the liberals has gone down not up )


Liberals less popular after Trudeau's town hall tour: Nanos survey


Jeff Lagerquist, CTVNews.ca
Published Saturday, January 28, 2017 12:30PM EST
Last Updated Saturday, January 28, 2017 12:41PM EST


The Liberal Party’s popularity is slipping on the heels of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s 10-stop cross-country town hall tour, as mounting concern about Canada-U.S. trade relations and the cash-for-access controversy erodes his comfortable advantage over opposition leaders, according to the latest Nanos Weekly National Ballot Tracking.

The data shows the Liberals’ current ballot support slipping below 40 per cent, as the opposition Conservatives climb into the 30 per cent range. The NDP has flat-lined in recent weeks, garnering favour with 16 per cent of Canadians surveyed.

“Justin Trudeau has the advantage, but we are seeing a negative trend line,” pollster Nik Nanos told CTV’s Power Play. “Usually when the Prime Minister of Canada goes on a charm offensive out to talk to Canadians, it’s intended to drive the numbers up.”



Nanos points to a confluence of events, including the ongoing spotlight on Liberal fundraising activities where well-heeled donors pay to attend exclusive events where they can bend the ears of key policy makers, and growing uncertainty around Canada’s future trade dealing with the U.S. under President Donald Trump.

“I would say that there is a dark cloud right now in terms of our relationship with the United States, just because the level of uncertainty is so high,” he said. “The reality is people are worried about NAFTA.”

On Monday, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. David MacNaughton warned Canada could become “collateral damage” in the Trump administration’s push to rethink trade deals.

However, Stephen Schwarzman, who leads Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum, said Canada need not be “enormously worried” about a looming trade overhaul following a private meeting with Trudeau during the recent two-day ministers’ retreat in Calgary.

Nanos declined to speculate about Kevin O’Leary’s impact on the Conservative's momentum following the reality TV personality and businessman’s recent entrance into the party’s leadership race, saying only that his presence may be causing other contenders to “up their game on the policy front.”

Wynne contagion weighs on Trudeau

Nanos also notes Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s waning popularity may be partially to blame for tarnishing the broader Liberal brand. Harsh criticism aimed at Wynne over soaring hydro bills has put the province’s Liberal and Conservative parties in a dead heat among those surveyed in the province

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics.....-1.3261309
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally, I don't see how the Liberals are in any electoral trouble at the moment. Yes, the Liberals have fallen from their post-election peaks, but they are still around what their winning margin was. They have a comfortable majority that was won with their present level of support, perhaps even a bit less.

Or do you think Canadians give a shit about what Justin said in his obituary for Fidel Castro? How many votes do you think that will change?

It seems clear that the 'honeymoon' is over, but there's no reason to believe that his missteps have cut into the support Trudeau won in the last election -- not in a serious way that would threaten his re-election. If we are honest, we would have to concede that the Liberals stickhandled their way through the possible pipeline controversy rather well.

Conservatives have to get out front of some of these policies and doing the cost-benefit analysis. I am in Victoria, BC at the moment, and gas here is $1.15+. At home, as of today, it is below $1.00, and $1.01 at the Esso. That suggests that the BC carbon tax's effect on prices is about $.15 a liter. The claim is that the carbon tax is revenue neutral, and perhaps it is, in the sense that the gross sums collected are returned to various parts of the public ... but not necessarily to those who paid the carbon tax.

This is almost certainly a blunder, on the Liberals part, given that all the tides are running against them, and the other provinces are not promising to make their policies revenue neutral. These are the grounds that the future election will be properly fought on. Conservatives ought to get prepared, and that means taking on the climate lobby.

The USA is going the other way. As in so many things, we have no real choice but to move to their rhythms. Are we to grow less competitive when the world is getting more competitive. In other words, we can't expect to grow economically by raising taxes and regulations that add to costs without losing a lot of jobs.

In all earnestness, Conservatives have to gird themselves for this battle. There is no compromise with something like this. You either have a carbon tax -- in whatever form -- or you don't, and it will be useless unless it is an obvious drag on the industrial economy. It will be like exporting jobs to the polluting parts of the world. Except we will get poorer in the process.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All leaders should hold town halls


Postmedia Network

First posted: Sunday, January 29, 2017 05:59 PM EST | Updated: Sunday, January 29, 2017 06:03 PM EST



Trudeau waves
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with the public at a town hall at the University of Winnipeg Thursday, January 26, 2017. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/John Woods)


The most extraordinary thing about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s listening tour of ordinary Canadians is that it’s extraordinary.

How did we get to the point in Canada where a prime minister answering the unfiltered questions of ordinary Canadians is as strange and foreign to us as a unicorn sighting?

We think all prime ministers -- and premiers -- should be doing the same thing, as a matter of course.

Yes, we’ve heard the criticism that Trudeau’s listening tour was just a cynical ploy by the Prime Minister’s Office to change the channel on Liberal scandals like cash-for-access fundraising and Trudeau’s attempt to keep his winter holiday with the Aga Khan on a private island in the Bahamas a secret.

But whatever the motivation was, the result has been positive.

It’s good that a Canadian prime minister is actually seeing and hearing how his policies are impacting ordinary Canadians, and answering their questions about them.

Considering the rough ride Trudeau has been getting in his town halls on everything from skyrocketing hydro rates in Ontario to his quip about phasing out the oil sands in Alberta, it’s obvious the questions haven’t been vetted in advance.

While, to their credit, most Canadians given an opportunity to question Trudeau have done so respectfully, that hasn’t stopped them from asking tough questions and demanding straight answers, which Trudeau hasn’t always been able to supply.

The point is we think what Trudeau is doing is a good exercise for all of Canada’s political leaders.

Prime ministers and premiers can all too easily lose touch with the people they’re supposed to be working for, surrounded as they are by aides, speech writers, cheerleaders, partisans and sycophants.

Toronto’s traffic congestion doesn’t mean much to a PM who doesn’t have to live though it every day.

Or worry about what he’s going to tell his family because he’s just lost his job in Alberta’s beleaguered oil sector due to the global crash in oil prices.

Having to face these people, and look them in the eye while defending government policies like a national carbon price, is and should be a humbling experience for any prime minister.

It would benefit every Canadian prime minister, and premier, of every political stripe, to regularly do the same.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017.....town-halls
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Federal Liberals support plummets in new poll

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