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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
That's what I think accounts for the sag in Liberal support -- the let-downs, the confusion, the obvious policy ploys that weren't thought through ... and the taxes, of course, but more than the taxes, i think there's a growing feeling that, perhaps because of Trump's election, we zigged when we should have zagged, policy-wise.

What I am getting at is the Liberal are, as a priority, taking most of the Harper domestic programme apart, just as Trump is making his economy more competitive.


I think that is part of it;
But the one thing that never tends to get much discussion about the 2015 election is turnout.

Its not like the CPC lost millions of votes;

They lost around 200,000 votes from their 2011 majority whereas the LPC gained over 4,000,000 around a million at the expense of the NDP but 3,000,000 from folks who didnt vote in 2011.

Trudeau and the LPC was able to energize a base of votes who were disenchanted or simply too apathetic to vote to the tune of a few million votes.

Now that the promise to change the electoral system is toast, their management of the economy is suspect, and they are now debating taxing employee discounts many of those voters aren't likely to come running to the polling stations in 2019.

When Sunny Ways turned out to be the Same Old Ways;
It turned off first time voters and now you have the Problem where Singh is looking to appear to the same base that got the LPC elected.

Its not like the majority of young people streamed to the polling stations to have the Harper Era Transit Credit repealed. They wanted change, not a faux class war to justify record spending during a time where the Government has record revenue.

I think its just a matter that the honeymoon is over and the party who can get its base to the polls should surprise.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You make a very good point. But that's the way elections are often won, and particularly the important elections. Trump had some success with this, and so did Harper.

In this case, is the role of celebrity strong enough to counter the effect? The Liberals didn't rally people to a cause, as it was with Trump. The Liberals are -- now, at least -- consciously trying to make Trudeau a figure in the pop culture, like Madonna, He's being cast as the Champion of Progressives internationally, presumably with some undisclosed superpowers.

That's what the Rolling Stone cover was all about as well as the luncheons with Ivanka.

Will his appeal with what I (mea culpa, sneeringly) call the 'food court vote' wane away? It is considerable. You can bet, as Justin walked through those food courts four years ago, his people were fanning out, getting emails and names, for his data base. Those people probably get little 'thinking-of-you' notes from Justin every once in a while ... and reminders of how much Justin's looking out for them.

Can they keep the sheep in the fold?

On the other hand, all it takes is for them to stop voting at all. They don't have to vote for us.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was a perfect storm;
Harper was seen as a Mr. Burns esk villain twisting his mustache at the plight of the common Canadian.

Then enter the anti-politician
One of the least qualified leaders in Canadian history who was able to spin that in a way that implied he could make huge changes because he understood the struggles of the average Canadian.

He is a good looking guy who speaks well as was able to draw people to his cause who wouldn't historically bother to vote.

However once Marijuana is legalized you lose a lot of individuals who consider it a major political issue because the issue is closed.

Then you have the folks who wanted a change to the electoral system;
They aren't leaving their house on election day.

Then you have the young folks who were energized to come out and vote LPC as their first ever time in a ballot booth;
Has this administration kept that election campaign level of energy that people will come out in droves?

Trudeau needs a class war for 2019;
Much like Wynne will try and make the next election about workers vs employers, the LPC needs an issue that will engage the electorate that propelled them to victory.

If turn out in 2015 was 2% lower and you factor in how it grew you likely have a LIberal Minority;
5% lower and you have a CPC minority
Same as 2011 and its a very different world.
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an NDP leadership race without candidates ?

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