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RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2016 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Over the last few days as I have read many of the articles pertaining to tomorrows By-Elections the pictures that seems to be painted is an expectation that the PCs will win both ridings.

The bar for the Liberals has been set incredibly low;
Should they retain Ottawa-Vanier which by all rights they should that isn't a "win" for the OLP its maintaining the riding with the highest number of Government Employees in the country which they have safely held for decades.

The PCs secured 8,750 votes in this riding in the last election and lost it by 30%.
If they secure a similar amount of votes and still lose the riding by 2 or 3% that is a massive win for the PCs in a riding that doesn't even get discussed in the equation of ridings that would need to go PC for them to form a government.

For the Liberals to lose this riding or even for the PCs to come within a single digit percentage within it would be catastrophic.

This isn't Scarborough—Rouge River which at least is bordered by ridings that have gone PC in recent memory, Ottawa Vanier is a stronghold surrounded by strongholds in a region that voted OLP even during the PC majority era.



I agree the expectations for the pc's have been set really high and for the liberals way too low . guess since the pc's had a higher profile candidate in Andre Marin that might be why expectations were raised so much .

Ottawa vanier is one of the most reliable liberal ridings in Ottawa , it stayed liberal federally in 2011 when just about every other riding went cpc or ndp . it hasn't ever been conservative federally or provincially the entire time I have followed politics going back to the 90's . its a very core liberal riding .

the make up of the riding demographically doesn't favour the pc's much either , its urban , a lot of renters and less homeowners , has a university and college and many younger residents , also has poorer areas such as Vanier , and more affluent elitist areas of rockcliffe park . there is some more average suburban areas to the east but not as much as other Ottawa ridings , its beside Ottawa Orleans which is all suburban and it has been a major challenge for the conservatives to win there and its an entirely suburban riding without the urban polls

I hate making predictions especially when the advance poll numbers didn't really tell us anything and there has been no public polls released yet . but I can't see a scenario where the liberals win it by 2011 or 2014 margins , as the ndp vote at provincial level is stronger than federal vote at the moment . one has to think its going to be much closer but the big question is how much ?
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No-Wynne byelections


First posted: Wednesday, November 16, 2016 08:51 PM EST | Updated: Wednesday, November 16, 2016 08:54 PM EST



Voters in two byelections can speak for all of us Thursday as they go to the polls on a referendum on the waste, mismanagement and scandal of Premier Kathleen Wynne’s government.

No matter the outcomes in Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara West-Glanbrook, Wynne will keep her majority government in the Legislature. If she loses Vanier, it will send a message that voters won’t tolerate any more arrogant, ham-fisted government.

Two senior Liberals face bribery charges under the Elections Act, an unprecedented stain on this province’s electoral history. Businesses face bankruptcy because of the fiasco she’s made of the electricity system and the failed Green Energy Act. Her madcap-and-trade plan will add a further burden to businesses and homeowners.

They couldn’t damage the province’s economy more if they sat down and planned it.

We are confident voters won’t be fooled by all the last minute histrionics the Liberals have been indulging in, comparing Ottawa-Vanier Tory candidate Andre Marin to U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump.

Get a grip. Marin is a legendary figure at Queen’s Park. As Ombudsman, he was a tireless crusader for the little guy, fighting for justice for them on everything from vaccines to lottery tickets to property taxes.

In Niagara West-Glanbrook, Liberals are slamming Tory candidate Sam Oosterhoff for his youth (he’s 19) and his lack of experience.

Better no track record at all than one of disastrous policies, OPP probes and bribery charges.

We have faith in the great common sense and good judgment of voters.

Liberals tried to sweeten the pot this week, dangling their break on the land transfer act — conveniently a few days before the byelections.

Voters aren’t fooled.

You can’t keep buying them with their own tax dollars.

It’s up to you, Vanier and NWG. Send a message the premier can’t ignore.

Voter turn-out in byelections is traditionally low. Let’s hope voters turn out in record numbers to register their disapproval with the government.

Democracy demands participation.

Don’t complain about bad government if you didn’t do something to change it.

Whoever you plan to vote for, get to the polls and deliver your message the best way we know how — through the ballot box

http://www.torontosun.com/2016.....yelections
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCs hope to elect teen MPP in Niagara West-Glanbrook, take Liberal seat, in Thursday byelections

Sam Oosterhoff, 19, in the spotlight in local riding


Hamilton Spectator
By Allison Jones and Keith Leslie


TORONTO — The Progressive Conservatives hope to make history Thursday in two byelections, with a teenage candidate in the Hamilton area and a former ombudsman turning up the heat on the Liberals in an Ottawa stronghold.

The Tories are expected to hold Niagara West-Glanbrook, even with upstart 19-year-old Sam Oosterhoff of Smithville stirring up controversy by taking social conservative stances that run contrary to PC leader Patrick Brown's attempts at modernizing the party.

But the Tories are also taking a hard run at Ottawa-Vanier, which has elected only Liberals since 1971. Brown suggested it's unlikely the Tories will win, but if they come within 10 points of the Liberals with candidate Andre Marin it will be "historic."

"If this is competitive it shows that the Liberals are in disarray across the province and they don't have the confidence of the public," he said.

Brown has been accused of muzzling Oosterhoff over his social conservative views. The seat is open because of the departure of former PC leader Tim Hudak.

Oosterhoff — who would be the youngest person elected to the legislature — describes himself as "100 per cent pro life," refused to say where he stood on same-sex marriage and campaigned against the Liberals' sex-ed curriculum. After a flip-flop, Brown now supports the curriculum and said Wednesday he supports a woman's right to choose and marriage equality.

Oosterhoff, who beat out PC party president and former MP Rick Dykstra, plus Grimsby councillor Tony Quirk and newsman Mike Williscraft, to win the nomination, believes he can vote against his party's positions in the legislature. Brown has visited the riding and campaigned with Oosterhoff a couple of times, including Monday in Grimsby.

"I'm very proud of the PC party having a long-standing tradition of allowing open votes on matters of deeply held conscience," said Oosterhoff, a Brock University political science student who was home-schooled.

Brown described the party discipline differently.

"I have, here at Queen's Park, encouraged more free votes," he said. "Having said that, I've asked my caucus to support the direction I'm taking as a party."

Oosterhoff said it's not social issues, but rising electricity bills and anger over the installation of giant wind turbines in the riding that residents bring up with him.

"People are upset and are worried about the direction the Liberals are taking Ontario," he said. "People want a voice of change and I'm excited to be that voice."

The Liberal candidate Vicki Ringuette was booed and jeered at a recent all candidates meeting when she talked about the rebate.

"It is not the kind of reaction I'm getting at the doors," said Ringuette, a Binbrook resident who is a lawyer in Hamilton. "They want to talk about the issues that are important to this community — health care, schools — the fact that we're getting increased daycare spaces."

The New Democrat is former Hamilton police officer and police association president Mike Thomas, who signed a five-year membership in the Ontario PC party in September. Others are Green Donna Cridland, Libertarian Stefanos Karatopis, Independent Martin Poos, Arthur Smitherman of the Canadian Constituents' Party, Greg Vezina from None of the Above and Queenie Yu of Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda.

Elections Ontario said as of Monday, preliminary figures show 4,569 people cast their vote at advance polls in Niagara West-Glanbrook. There are an estimated 101,767 eligible voters.

In Ottawa-Vanier, Marin is trying to capitalize on anger over rising electricity rates and the declining popularity of Premier Kathleen Wynne.

When he mentions Wynne's name while campaigning, people "bristle," Marin said. "They have a physical reaction."

The Liberal candidate, civil liberties lawyer Nathalie Des Rosiers, acknowledged that hydro prices are a hurdle for her in the campaign.

"It's normal at mid-mandate that one issue becomes a catalyst for disappointment on a variety of points of view, so in a byelection that usually is the case — there's one issue that becomes the symbol of discontent," she said.

The Liberal government announced an eight-per-cent rebate on electricity bills will come into effect Jan. 1, but it remains to be seen whether it is enough to satisfy the 94 per cent of Ontarians that government-commissioned polling shows are eager for hydro price relief.

But Marin comes with baggage of his own. He was seen in his roles as ombudsman and director of the Special Investigations Unit as critical of police. The Police Association of Ontario expressed "profound disappointment" at Marin's nomination and Brown sought to undo any damage when he spoke to their conference Tuesday.

"I called (Marin) and I said, 'You are going to support my positions on policing because I am an unequivocal supporter of the police — are you OK with that?" Brown said. "I had his unequivocal commitment that any previous criticisms would no longer carry water and that he would never speak against police again."

A police officer in the audience recorded Brown's speech and gave the audio to the Liberals, who in turn provided it to the media.

Brown said Wednesday he was addressing "one of the elephants in the room" but denied that what he told Marin amounted to muzzling him. When reached by phone, Marin said he was "not in a position" to answer questions about it.

"You're saying that he said I was never allowed to criticize the police again? I'll have to get back to you on that," Marin said. He did not call back.

The NDP candidate is Claude Bisson, brother of the party's house leader, Gilles Bisson.



The Canadian Press/Hamilton Spectator

http://www.thespec.com/news-st.....elections/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ontario Liberals' future in the balance as Ottawa-Vanier votes


David Reevely

First posted: Wednesday, November 16, 2016 04:02 PM EST | Updated: Wednesday, November 16, 2016 04:25 PM EST


The Ontario Liberals begin their annual general meeting at the Shaw Centre on Friday. In Ottawa-Vanier. Hours after the byelection to replace Madeleine Meilleur as the riding’s MPP.

If Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers wins, the convention centre people will need to crank the HVAC to handle all the sighs of relief.

Des Rosiers has run a by-the-book campaign in an attempt to hold the Liberal stronghold vacated earlier this year by Meilleur. The law dean and civil rights champion has hit the doors hard, defended the Liberals’ record, fought a bit dirty against Progressive Conservative nominee André Marin with leaflets repeating allegations he terrorized his own staff as the provincial ombudsman.

She’s secured public endorsements (and some campaign help) from Meilleur, the local councillors, Mauril Bélanger’s widow Catherine, even ex-prime minister Jean Chrétien. That’s a notable difference between Des Rosiers and Marin: for all the renown he attracted as Ontario’s warrior-ombud, Marin’s biggest-name backer in the riding is Richard Cannings, the former city councillor who lost in the amalgamation election in 2000.

I took a long drive through most of the riding the other day, from Overbrook to Rockcliffe and back, and Des Rosiers had twice as many signs up on private property as Marin did. New Democrat Claude Bisson had only a handful. A rough sign count isn’t scientific but it is suggestive.

The Progressive Conservatives set out to lower expectations a little on Wednesday, with a news release headlined: “Ottawa-Vanier is a Liberal fortress that is Kathleen Wynne’s to lose.” In other words, we’ll treat a strong second place as a moral victory.

But given last week’s Donald Trump surprise, Liberals fall into complacency at their own great peril. An end-of-campaign email from Ottawa-Orléans Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde reminded the team that low turnout in the U.S. election, probably abetted by good poll numbers for the Democrats, killed Hillary Clinton’s chance to be president.

“If you want a progressive, strong voice you need to show up and vote,” Lalonde told the Liberal faithful.

She threw in a tweet copied from senior Eastern Ontario Tory Roxane Villeneuve, with a picture of Villeneuve and regional organizer Debbie Jodoin holding Trump signs, declaring that “We Canadians love Trump.” That message is at odds with Marin’s emphasis on the first word in the Progressive Conservative name, and hard to square with much that leader Patrick Brown has said lately, either.

(Speaking of such things, the Tories have their own existential drama going on in the other byelection Thursday night, in Niagara, where teenage social conservative Sam Oosterhoff is their candidate. In Ottawa, the question is whether Des Rosiers is strong enough to heave all the Liberal baggage over the finish line; in Niagara, it’s whether the Progressive Conservative brand is enough to keep Oosterhoff ahead of more accomplished Liberal and New Democrat candidates.)

Losing a byelection in Scarborough-Rouge River to the Tories at the end of the summer was bad for the Liberals but — despite the opposition’s saying otherwise — that was never a very safe Liberal seat. Losing Ottawa-Vanier would be a catastrophe, an omen of an extinction-level event for the Liberal party, and personally devastating for Wynne.

As of her last visit to Ottawa a week ago, Wynne had every intention of leading the Liberal party into the 2018 election. “She’s not going anywhere,” her people say.

Things looked bad for the party when Wynne took over from Dalton McGuinty in 2013 but she turned a wobbly minority into a majority a year later. That experience understandably makes it easy to discount, for instance, a poll saying almost six in 10 Ontarians want her to quit. But that experience predated the ugly cash-for-access scandal over ministerial fundraising Wynne defended for much too long. And it predated the bribery charges against Wynne’s chief election organizer Patricia Sorbara over her handling of a surplus Sudbury byelection candidate two years ago. Wynne’s face isn’t so fresh any more.

Here in Ottawa, Des Rosiers was recruited as a candidate by party brass even though the Liberals had a solid candidate available in local school trustee Lucille Collard. Des Rosiers won the nomination partly, maybe entirely, because hundreds of people couldn’t vote due to a Collard campaign paperwork screwup. That was a legitimate use of the party rules but it won’t stop the recriminations if Des Rosiers doesn’t pull through.

In that case, the ventilation at the convention centre will be fine, but the Rideau Canal outside will need more than its autumn trickle to carry away the blood.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2016/.....nier-votes
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( polls opened at 9am but don't close till 9 pm so it be a awhile before we know the winners )

It's election day for the Niagara West--Glanbrook and Ottawa--Vanier provincial by-elections


TORONTO, Nov. 17, 2016 /CNW/ - "Polls opened this morning at 9:00 A.M. (Eastern Time) in the electoral districts of Niagara West—Glanbrook and Ottawa—Vanier. These voting locations will remain open until 9:00 P.M. (Eastern Time) to ensure every eligible voter in Niagara West—Glanbrook and Ottawa—Vanier has an opportunity to cast their ballot," said Chief Electoral Officer, Greg Essensa.

Before heading to the polls, Elections Ontario reminds eligible voters to bring their Notice of Registration Card and proof of identity, or one piece of identification that includes both their name and residential address with them to vote. A detailed list of acceptable identification documents is available at elections.on.ca.

Live election results will be available once the polls have closed at 9:00 P.M. (Eastern Time) on the Elections Ontario website elections.on.ca. Live results posted this evening are unofficial.

For more information visit elections.on.ca or call 1-888-668-8683 (TTY: 1-888-292-2312).

Elections Ontario is the non-partisan agency responsible for administering provincial elections, by-elections and referenda.

Disponible en français

SOURCE Elections Ontario

http://www.newswire.ca/news-re.....75235.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a rather negative article from the globe and mail attacking both Ontario pc candidates , why I'm I not surprised , why are the liberals trying to turn the by election into a referendum on someone's personal views ? even if oosterhoff is pro life , why does that matter , its his personal views , the pc's aren't going to do anything about abortion with Brown as leader , its a silly issue to even be talking about . and there has been many pro life liberal mp's over the years I don't recall the media attacking them on the same level they are this candidate
, they also refer to Ottawa Vanier as working class ? really it has some of the most affluent neighbourhoods in the country , on Wikipedia Rockcliffe park is described as the wealthiest area in all of Ottawa and one of Canada's as well , are these voters really working class ? seriously , there are some parts of the riding that are more average but a lot of it isn't )




Contentious candidates on the ballots in Ontario by-elections


Adrian Morrow




The Globe and Mail


Published Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016 11:06AM EST

Last updated Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016 11:09AM EST



A 19-year-old university student who opposes abortion and appears to believe homosexuality is a sin will try to become the youngest MPP in Ontario history today.

Meanwhile, the province’s colourful and controversial former ombudsman will seek to deal a blow to the Premier who pushed him out of office by snatching a safe seat away from her government.

The by-elections in Niagara West-Glanbrook and Ottawa-Vanier are tests of Premier Kathleen Wynne’s electoral prowess amid cratering poll numbers and widespread voter anger over high electricity prices, the privatization of Hydro One and a string of ethics scandals.



But both races have also turned surprisingly spicy because of contentious Progressive Conservative candidates.

Ms. Wynne needs a thumping victory in Ottawa-Vanier – one of the safest Liberal seats in the province – to ease her party’s jitters over her mounting unpopularity. A Forum poll last month pegged her approval rating at just 14 per cent, and put the Tories’ provincewide lead over the Liberals at 43 per cent to 24 per cent, with the NDP at 23 per cent.

PC Leader Patrick Brown would sorely love to take Vanier, and recruited former ombudsman André Marin for the task.

Mr. Marin became something of a folk hero in his decade on the job, with hard-hitting reports on everything from Hydro One billing problems to mass arrests at the 2010 G20 protests.

His shoot-from-the-lip communications style was a magnet for the media, but often overshadowed his work. As his term wound down last year, for instance, he exhorted his followers to flame the Liberals on Twitter to pressure them into giving him another five years on the job.

Ms. Wynne’s cabinet then used an executive order to get him out of office. The Liberals subsequently got the other parties in the legislature to agree to give the job to the much milder Paul Dubé.

Despite his outsize personality, Mr. Marin is a political moderate who would fit well with Mr. Brown’s attempted rebranding of the PCs as a “modern,” technocratic party.

(Not that all his campaign staff got the memo: In the days before the by-election, the Liberals gleefully circulated a hastily deleted tweet that showed two of Mr. Marin’s aides posing with Donald Trump signs and declaring their support for the xenophobic U.S. president-elect.)

The Liberals have nominated a heavy-hitter of their own, University of Ottawa law dean Nathalie Des Rosiers, to try to hold the seat. Ms. Des Rosiers is best known for her previous work with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, where she exposed ex-premier Dalton McGuinty’s secret move to suspend protesters’ rights ahead of the G20 summit.

The NDP have nominated Claude Bisson, a former civilian RCMP employee and brother of Gilles Bisson, the New Democrats’ House Leader.

A loss in Vanier would raise tough questions about Ms. Wynne’s leadership. While she has been successful at managing her caucus and avoiding internal rifts in her nearly four years as Premier, a loss could cause her MPPs to doubt her abilities.

“The people of Ottawa-Vanier will vote in a by-election. They will make a decision,” she told reporters Tuesday. “We’ve got a great candidate. Nathalie Des Rosiers is a terrifically qualified, talented, engaged community person. I’m looking forward to that process.”

The Tories, meanwhile, tried to set expectations for themselves as low as possible. On Wednesday, they circulated a press release that described Vanier as a “traditional Liberal fortress” and reminded reporters that the Grits have carried it since 1971, often by margins of more than 30 per cent.

In Niagara, meanwhile, Sam Oosterhoff, a political science student at Brock University, unexpectedly beat former MP Rick Dykstra, the PC party president and a close friend of Leader Patrick Brown, for the Tory nomination.

Mr. Oosterhoff rallied evangelical Christians in the Tory safe seat by opposing the Liberals’ sexual-education curriculum and a bill making it easier for same-sex couples to have children.

His nomination was revenge for social conservatives in the party who felt betrayed by Mr. Brown’s repeated flip-flops on sex-ed and same-sex marriage. Mr. Brown changed his position on sex-ed no fewer than three times before finally pledging support for the new curriculum this fall.

If Mr. Oosterhoff wins, he would easily qualify as one of the most right-wing figures in provincial politics.

At an all-candidates’ debate earlier this month, he declared himself “100-per-cent pro-life.”

And in a Facebook post from last year, Mr. Oosterhoff linked to a homobophic blog post on www.desiringgod.org. Mr. Oosterhoff quoted a section of the post on his page, describing homosexuality as a “sin” and decrying that it is “seen as a good thing.”

When one of his Facebook friends asked if she could share the post, Mr. Oosterhoff wrote back: “Absolutely!”

The posting was not visible on Mr. Oosterhoff’s Facebook page Thursday, but a screen grab of it was circulated online by the Broadbent Institute, a left-of-centre think tank.

The NDP have nominated Mike Thomas, a former Hamilton police officer and union leader, in hopes of wresting the riding away.

The Liberals nominated lawyer Vicky Ringuette. At the debate last week, she got a rough ride, with the room repeatedly erupting into boos at any mention of electricity prices or the provincial debt.

Niagara West-Glanbrook, a largely rural riding in Ontario’s wine country, has been in Tory hands for a generation. It became vacant when former Tory leader Tim Hudak quit the legislature earlier this year.

Ottawa-Vanier, a largely working-class area on the city’s east side, became vacant with the resignation of former attorney-general Madeleine Meilleur ahead of a cabinet shuffle this summer.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....e32884567/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there is talk in this article about a possible 3rd place finish for the liberals in Niagara West Glanbrook )



Francophone voters key to Liberal hopes in Ottawa-Vanier

Pollster predicts Liberals will place third in Niagara West-Glanbrook


Ainslie Cruickshank

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Without a high turnout of francophone voters in the Ottawa-Vanier provincial byelection Thursday, the Liberals will be hard pressed to maintain their decades-long grip on the riding, a pollster says.

All major parties are running a francophone candidate in the riding, which points to the importance of that community’s votes, said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Nathalie Des Rosiers, dean of common law at the University of Ottawa, is running for the Liberals, who have held the seat since 1971. She’s facing off against former Ontario ombudsman André Marin for the Progressive Conservatives and Claude Bisson, a former RCMP executive, for the NDP.

While the proportion of francophone voters has declined slightly in the riding — from 31 per cent of the population naming French as their mother tongue in 2006 to 28 per cent in 2011 — it’s still significant, said Carol Jolin, president of the Assemblée de la francophonie de l’Ontario.

Traditionally the Liberal party fares better among francophones in the polls, Maggi said.

But byelections tend to have lower turnouts, and with Premier Kathleen Wynne’s record low approval ratings it will be hard for the Liberals to draw out the party base, he said.

In Eastern Ontario the Progressive Conservatives have a 20-point lead — they’re polling at 48 per cent to the Liberals’ 28 per cent, said Maggi.

Provincially the PCs are at 43 per cent, with the NDP at 27 per cent and the Liberals coming in third with 25 per cent, he said.

“With the PCs in strong first place in Eastern Ontario, even Ottawa Vanier could fall,” Maggi said, noting the PCs will have an easier time motivating supporters to get out and vote by pointing to high hydro rates and other controversies.

But the PCs are facing their own challenges in Ottawa-Vanier, where two candidates — Elizabeth de Viel Castel with the new Stop the New Sex Ed Agenda party and Stephanie McEvoy with the Canadian Constituents’ Party — are running on anti-sex ed platforms.

Social conservatives are hoping the two anti-sex education candidates will be able to split the Conservative vote and prevent a PC win in the riding, sending a message to the party that it can’t abandon the social conservative wing, said Jack Fonseca, a prominent social conservative and senior political strategist with Campaign Life Coalition, earlier this month.

In the Niagara West-Glanbrook byelection, the PCs’ 19-year old, socially-conservative candidate Sam Oosterhoff is expected to win the seat left empty when former PC leader Tim Hudak resigned.

Oosterhoff, who would become Ontario’s youngest MPP ever if he wins, is facing Liberal Vicky Ringuette and NDP candidate Mike Thomas.

If Maggi’s prediction is correct, the Liberals will place third in Niagara West-Glanbrook.

“A loss in Vanier coupled with a third place finish in (Niagara West-Glanbrook) is sure to send shock waves through the Ontario Liberal Party and the Ontario government,” he said.

Polls close at 9 p.m. Thursday for voters in both Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara West-Glanbrook.

http://ipolitics.ca/2016/11/17.....wa-vanier/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the results are starting to come in , Sam Oosterhoff is way ahead in Niagara West , ndp 2nd and liberal 3rd


Ottawa Vanier , liberal is ahead of Andre Marin , but still very early
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

19-year-old Sam Oosterhoff wins Niagara West-Glanbrook by-election

Posted: November 18, 2016 06:20:30 AM
Category: Niagara
Tags: Andre Martic, binbrook, glanbrook, hamilton, mpp, Nathalie Des Rosiers, niagara, Patrick Brown, progressive conservative, Sam Oosterhoff


samwin1

Sam Oosterhoff made history Thursday night after he won the Niagara West-Glanbrook by-election, becoming the youngest-ever Member of the Ontario Legislature.

The 19-year-old Progressive Conservative easily held onto the riding that has been represented for the past 21 years by former PC Leader Tim Hudak.

“We couldn’t be more proud,” said current PC leader Patrick Brown after he introduced Oosterhoff to the crowd at a victory party. “Sam Oosterhoff will be a strong advocate for this community at Queen’s Park and I welcome him to the PC Caucus.”



Oosterhoff told supporters during his victory speech that this sends a strong message to Premier Kathleen Wynne.




“People are fed up. People have had enough of soaring hydro rates,” said Oosterhoff. “People believe we can move Ontario forward and we saw that here in Niagara West Glanbrook.”

Voter turnout for the election was surprisingly low at just 32 per cent. Oosterhoff won 54 per cent of the vote.

Liberal Nathalie Des Rosiers won the Ottawa-Vanier by-election, defeating high profile PC candidate Andre Marin, the province’s outspoken former ombudsman.

http://www.chch.com/19-year-ol.....yelection/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the results in Niagara West Glanbrook weren't a surprise but if you look deeper into the numbers the liberal vote really did fall apart entirely


in 2007 they got 30% or 14,000 . 2011 25 % or 12700 and 2014 28% or 15800 .

but last night they only got 15 % or 4997 votes , that's 10000 less votes than they got as recently as 2014 , it should be concerning to the liberals that they came 3rd and did this badly in a riding beside Hamilton and not that far from Toronto , the riding is mostly rural but does contain larger town of Grimsby

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niagara_West%E2%80%94Glanbrook_(provincial_electoral_district)

http://www.elections.on.ca/en/.....lts21.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PC candidate Sam Oosterhoff, 19, wins Niagara West-Glanbrook



Luke Edwards,Metroland



Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown, right, celebrates Sam Oosterhoff's victory in Niagara West-Glanbrook during the Nov. 17 byelection. The victory makes 19-year-old Oosterhoff the youngest MPP in Ontario history.



Hamilton Spectator

GRIMSBY — A 19-year-old Smithville man has made Ontario history by winning the Niagara West-Glanbrook byelection.

Progressive Conservative candidate Sam Oosterhoff has become the youngest person elected to the Ontario legislature.

His victory was hailed Thursday night by PC Leader Patrick Brown, who attended Oosterhoff's election night party at the Casablanca Inn, a hotel just off the Queen Elizabeth Way in Grimsby.

Oosterhoff, who brought controversy to the contest because of his social conservative views, thanked his supporters just before 10 p.m. The mood was buoyant at the well-attended party, which brought out Milton MP Lisa Raitt, a federal Conservative leadership candidate.

The riding became vacant because of the departure of former PC leader Tim Hudak. It was always said to be a safe conservative seat, but Oosterhoff's opposition to abortion and questioning the new sex-ed curriculum was thought to raise some doubt.

In the end, it didn't matter. With 130 of 236 polls reporting just after 10 p.m., the first-year-political science student at Brock University had about 52 per cent of vote.

The New Democrat candidate and former Hamilton police officer Mike Thomas of Binbrook was in second with about 26 per cent of the vote. Oosterhoff had more than 4,300 votes than Thomas. Liberal candidate and Hamilton lawyer Vicky Ringuette, also of Binbrook, was in third with about 15 per cent of the vote. She trailed Oosterhoff by more than 6,000 votes.

Oosterhoff said people were angry about their hydro bills and industrial wind turbines but Ringuette said she wasn't hearing complaints from voters about electricity rates.

The Liberals held on to Ottawa-Vanier with lawyer Nathalie Des Rosiers.



The Canadian Press/Hamilton Spectator

http://www.thespec.com/news-st.....glanbrook/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The PCs retained a safe riding,
And the Liberals retained a safe riding;

I would imagine with the threat of losing the majority government starting to vanish, we will see Liberal MPPs slowly start to step away before the election.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The PCs retained a safe riding,
And the Liberals retained a safe riding;

I would imagine with the threat of losing the majority government starting to vanish, we will see Liberal MPPs slowly start to step away before the election.



both ridings were such strongholds I don't see either result being that reflective of the overall province .

Ottawa Vanier is such a liberal riding for them to have lost it or even came close to , would of been unheard of . its full of federal government bureaucrats and maybe a government outside like Andre Marin proved to be a bad fit for the riding . but regardless of who the pc candidate was I doubt there was any way to take the riding away from the liberals .

however the result was closer than years past , it appears the pc's and ndp held there vote and liberals lost a lot from 2014 numbers . pc's got 8750 or 22% in 2014 but got 9023 or 29% in by election , a big 7% gain but in terms of raw votes about the same .

the ndp vote also stayed around the same % , got 5228 or 13 % in 2014 and got 4544 or 15 % in by election , but raw vote totals are very similar amounts . indicating they didn't grow much or lose support either .
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( Marin claims the internal polling showed the race much closer , if that was true or not its hard to say , he's also unsure if he will run again for the pc's . but if you look at the numbers the pc vote stayed about the same , they have got around 9000 votes the last 4 or so elections , the % went up only cause some liberals didn't show up to vote , looking at the numbers is a very unlikely riding to ever go pc , it will likely be liberal for some time )



Social conservatives a 'threat' to Ontario PCs, says André Marin after byelection loss

Brian Platt
More from Brian Platt

Published on: November 18, 2016 | Last Updated: November 18, 2016 5:07 PM EST



André Marin of the Ontario PCs talks to his supporters after losing the Ottawa-Vanier byelection , November 17, 2016. Jean Levac / Postmedia News




André Marin went into the byelection in Ottawa-Vanier on Thursday expecting to win. The party’s internal numbers showed a close race.

As it turned out, the Liberals won with a hefty 19-point margin in the polls, though the PCs did show their best results in the riding in 50 years.

Speaking after the loss, Marin was blunt in his outlook for the party. He declared that social conservatives need to be put “in their place” by PC leader Patrick Brown, as they constitute “a threat to the party.”

“If they start calling some of the shots, I think you’ll see a very fast erosion in the popularity of the Progressive Conservative party,” Marin said.

The comments carry particular weight given the other byelection that took place on Thursday in Niagara-West Glanbrook. That’s where 19-year-old university student Sam Oosterhoff swiped the nomination from PC party president Rick Dykstra. Oosterhoff, who won the byelection easily in the safe PC riding, is an avowedly pro-life candidate backed by the anti-sex-ed movement.

Marin also addressed a mini-scandal during the campaign that the Liberals took full advantage of: A tweet sent out by PC party staff that included his campaign manager declaring her support for Donald Trump. The tweet was hastily deleted, but the Liberals mailed a screenshot of it to homes in the riding.

“In this byelection, it’s time to send a message,” the bilingual Liberal mail-out said. “We are a progressive, inclusive community. And what happened in the U.S. will not happen here.”

Marin said he didn’t even know the tweet had been posted before it was deleted.

“I’m the most anti-Trump person you can possibly find,” Marin said. “I think that scared a lot of people, unfortunately.”


Here are extended sections of Marin’s remarks on Thursday night, after his byelection loss.

Asked if he’ll run again for the party:

I’ve got some thinking to do … I believe in the PC brand. I believe in Patrick Brown. I believe that steering the party to the middle is the way to do it. He’s going to have a challenge on his hands to keep the so-cons in their place. Harper managed to do very well, and I think Patrick Brown will do very well. But I think it’s a threat to the party. Because if they start calling some of the shots, I think you’ll see a very fast erosion in the popularity of the Progressive Conservative party.

Asked about the deleted Trump tweet:

There was a very unfortunate tweet from one of the campaign staff about admiring Trump. I think that was a huge misstep. But what can you do? You’re running a big campaign. You can’t control everybody on every step of the way, nor should you want to control them. But I’m the most anti-Trump person you can possibly find. The Liberals jumped on that opportunity and continued their smear campaign, associating me with Trump. I think that scared a lot of people unfortunately.

Did he asked for it to be deleted?

No. I woke up the next day and it was all over. The tweet was up, the tweet was removed. I had nervous campaign staff saying, ‘Do we still have a job?’ And I was like, ‘What’s everyone talking about?’ It all happened. I had no control over the actual tweet or the untweeting or the deletion of the tweet.

Asked about the overall results:

The Progressive Conservative party had zero base in this riding. We had to build from scratch. To end with 27 or 28 per cent … it’s a base we didn’t have, so we started from scratch. The media knew it, we knew it. Of course I’m disappointed. The results do not concur with our internal polling. And, as I understand it, the Liberals’ polling either.

I expected to win tonight. So I’m disappointed.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/.....ction-loss
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No harm, no foul: Lessons from 2 byelections


First posted: Saturday, November 19, 2016 07:00 PM EST | Updated: Saturday, November 19, 2016 07:46 PM EST



The two byelections fought last Thursday returned the ridings of Niagara West-Glanbrook and Ottawa Vanier to their respective blue and red folds.

It’s hard to parse messages from what on the surface appear to be stand pat votes.

Premier Kathleen Wynne can claim victory because Liberal Nathalie Des Rosiers easily won in Ottawa-Vanier.

PC leader Patrick Brown was all smiles about making history. PC candidate Sam Oosterhoff, 19, is the youngest person ever elected to Queen’s Park.

Reading between the lines, there are messages for all three leaders — Wynne, Brown and NDP leader Andrea Horwath.

Wynne can take no comfort in the NWG results.

Her candidate, Vicky Ringuette, a lawyer with an impressive resume, could only manage a weak, third place finish. New Democrat Mike Thomas, a former Hamilton cop, came second.

The soaring cost of electricity was front and centre in NWG. Voters are outraged by their hydro bills and angered by the sell-off of Hydro One by the Wynne government.

Despite the righteous indignation of both the media and two other parties, who questioned Oosterhoff’s youth, inexperience and social conservative values, he cruised to victory over two very solid opponents.

The message for Wynne is that outside the comfy Toronto and Ottawa bubbles, voters overwhelmingly reject their failed green energy policies.

Liberals have a disastrous 13-year record of waste, mismanagement and scandal. At any other time in this province’s history, any government facing several OPP probes and any party with senior operatives facing bribery charges under the Elections Act would be toast.

Not the Wynne Liberals. Despite the premier’s dismal personal polling figures showing her at a 15% approval rating, Thursday’s results show there’s hope for her and her party yet. Especially in urban centres, voters are willing to give the Liberal another chance. And another.

That’s astonishing.

Just when you thought they should be heading for the political graveyard, they show they have more political lives than the proverbial dead cat. And while voters are always right, you have to wonder what it will take in some parts of this province to finally consign this government to history.

There’s a strong message for Brown. Until Thursday, he had a perfect record of winning byelections — in Simcoe North, Whitby-Oshawa and his coveted breakthrough in Scarborough Rouge-River. He had a star candidate in Ottawa-Vanier — former Ombudsman Andre Marin. While he increased the Tory share of the vote, he couldn’t make a breakthrough.

He has to work harder in vote rich urban areas.

Horwath, should be most worried. A second place finish in NWG is hardly cause for rejoicing. New Democrats should be the party of protest — on hydro, on scandals. Their message isn’t resonating. If she can’t find a way to reach voters, there will be calls for her to step aside and let the NDP find someone who can.

http://www.torontosun.com/2016.....yelections
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2 Ontario provincial by-elections taking place on Nov 17

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