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RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:52 am    Post subject: Ontario pc's lead liberals 41% to 28 % in new poll Reply with quote

( these numbers really indicate its time for Kathleen wynne to retire , 16 % approval is dismal territory and pc's have a huge province wide lead , a couple by-election loses and it may be all over for her I wonder ? )


Ontario Tories hold steady lead in latest poll


A new public opinion poll suggests this may be Ontario’s summer of discontent with Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals.




Asked which leader would make the best premier, just 14 per cent of respondents to a recent Forum Research poll gave the nod to Kathleen Wynne.

(Mark Blinch / THE CANADIAN PRESS file photo)




By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Fri., Aug. 19, 2016



A new public opinion poll suggests this may be Ontario’s summer of discontent with Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals.

The Forum Research survey conducted Monday found Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives holding steady with 41 per cent to 28 per cent for the Liberals, 23 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s resurgent New Democrats, and 6 per cent for the Green Party helmed by Mike Schreiner.

That’s a setback for the premier’s party from the July 12 poll that had the Tories at 42 per cent, the Liberals at 35 per cent, the NDP at 17 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned Thursday against reading too much into the August results with the next provincial election almost two years away.

“This is the deadest part of summer. I think everyone is just sort of floating right now. People aren’t paying attention. People are on vacation,” said Bozinoff.









“But . . . it does show the continuing strength of the Tories,” he said, noting Brown’s party has topped the monthly tracking poll since last August.

“The Liberals are going to have to work at it — I don’t think it’s going to bounce back on its own for the Liberals to take a lead.”

Using interactive voice-response telephone calls, Forum surveyed 1,097 Ontarians on Monday with results considered accurate to within three percentage points 19 times out of 20.




While the New Democrats are up from last month’s poll, Bozinoff suggested the provincial party may still be suffering from the federal NDP’s problems in the wake of the October election.

New Democrats dumped Thomas Mulcair as federal leader in April and the nascent race to succeed him has generated little interest.

“The NDP, in my mind, are sort of in a no man’s land right now. Both federally and provincially they were out-NDP-ed by the Liberals,” he said, referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election win last fall and Wynne’s victory in June 2013.

Still, Horwath continues to reign as the most popular of the three major party leaders.

The New Democrat chief enjoyed a 34 per cent approval rating compared to 28 per cent disapproval and 38 per cent don’t know.

Brown was at 26 per cent approval, 25 per cent disapproval, with 49 per cent don’t know.

Wynne languished behind with 16 per cent approval, 72 per cent disapproval, and 11 per cent don’t know.

Asked which leader would make the best premier, 14 per cent of respondents gave the nod to Wynne.

Brown received 25 per cent support to 17 per cent for Horwath while 27 per cent of those polled said “none of these” and 17 per cent didn’t know.

Where appropriate, results of the survey have been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

Forum houses its complete results in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/08/19/ontario-tories-hold-steady-lead-in-latest-poll.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( according to this poll the pc's are at 47 % in the 905 area and ndp could form the official opposition , as liberals support is so low and concentrated in Toronto )


Liberal Vote Share Tumbles in Ontario

August 17, 2016 @ 3:09 PM | Filed under: Ontario




Liberal Vote Share Tumbles in Ontario
PC majority, NDP would form opposition if election held today

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1097 Ontario voters, 4-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative if an election were held today (41%), while just more than one quarter would vote Liberal (28%). Just less than a quarter will vote for the NDP (23%).The Green Party takes a share of about one twentieth (6%), while few will vote for any other party (2%).




This stands in contrast to last month, when the PC vote share was relatively stable (42%), but the Liberal vote was sharply higher (35%). The New Democrat vote share has also increased significantly (from 17%) since last month. It appears the lost Liberal votes have gone to the NDP.

The PC vote is common to the oldest (55+ - 46%), Males (48%) rather than females (35%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 47%) and in the 905 area code surrounding Toronto (47%).

The Liberal vote is characteristic of the youngest (34%), the least wealthy (41%), in the Toronto 416 area code (32%) and the best educated (post grad - 37%),

The NDP vote is common to the youngest (30%), females (27%) rather than males (18%), the least wealthy (31%), in northern Ontario (29%) and those with some college (27%).

PC majority, NDP opposition seen

If these results are projected up to the current 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take 69, 15 more than required for a majority, while the NDP would form the opposition with 23 seats, and the Liberals would take just 15.

Wynne’s favourables tumble too

Kathleen Wynne has the approval of just one sixth of voters (16%, down from 22%) and this is the lowest approval we have seen for a party leader since 2011. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a deeply negative -56, down from -44 last month. Just 4-in-10 Liberals approve of her performance (42%) and almost as many disapprove (39%).



Patrick Brown has the approval of just more than a quarter of voters (26%), down slightly from last month (29%) and his net is a neutral +1, because so many people have no opinion on the question. Just fewer than one half of PC voters approve of Brown (47%), but most don’t know enough to have an opinion (39%).

Andrea Horwath has stable approval at one third (34%) with a slightly positive net of +6. Her approval is at 6-in-10 (62%) among New Democrats.

Brown seen to make best Premier

Patrick Brown is seen to be the best candidate for Premier by a quarter (25%), while about a sixth see Andrea Horwath in this role (17%) and fewer see the incumbent as the best choice (Kathleen Wynne - 14%). However, the largest single group thinks none of these is up to the job (27%), and as many as one fifth don’t have an opinion (17%).

“It appears Premier Wynne’s chickens have finally come home to roost, and voters have started to notice the controversies surrounding her government. The beneficiary, however, appears to be the NDP, rather than the PCs, although a majority would be theirs if the election were held today" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.



Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....n-ontario/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brown has been everywhere this summer;
Its like the guy doesn't sleep.

Its very much like 1994 where Mike Harris visited every riding with his common sense revolution in hand.

Granted Brown doesn't quite have a platform plank other than "Liberals Bad" but its been an impressive feat none the less.

As for the Forums Poll;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....%20Release(JC).pdf

Whats the deal with this "GTA" number?
It appears to just be the 416 + 905 numbers?

It appears in every poll and adds zero value.

As for the 905s,
That is the region where majorities are born both Federally and Provincially and the PCs seem to have a 20 point lead over the Liberals and more support in that region than the NDP + Liberals combined.

Its not surprising as the PCs have basically led the Liberals in every poll since December, but with that said the OLP hasn't spent a dollar attacking Brown personally which is usually done via some third party.

While the election is two years away;
I have to wonder if there is at least some discussion about proactively replacing Wynne?

Someone like Sandra Pupatello who has been external to the party since 2011 may be a good option now.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The pc's are still a little short of policy or plans of exactly what they'd do if they win . maybe since in the past they seemed to lose support over such policy there avoiding releasing anything . Brown has done a lot of travel and has been to ridings all over the province , he really doesn't get a lot of press from the major media outlets , the main CTV news here pretty much just shows the liberals and often ignores him entirely during there newscasts . think where he'd be in the polls if he had got more press from the media ? he'd be at like 50 % by now .


personally think Wynne is in trouble , the new polling numbers are dismal , 16 % approval rating is down right horrible and pc's have a big lead over liberals and the provincial ndp vote is still holding on and much higher than federal ndp % support for Ontario .
the next 3 by-elections could be critical for her future , the liberals won't win Niagara west Glanbrook it was tim hudak's seat and cpc federally but other 2 have been liberal strongholds if they lose 1 or both it be pretty hard for her to stay on . we find out soon who wins Scarborough Rouge River but have to wait till fall for Ottawa Vanier .

the liberals and pc's don't appear to have candidates yet for Ottawa Vanier and with a federal by-election happening in same riding , it may become very difficult to find a good one , obviously will be more interest in the federal seat as its higher profile and winner could walk to work rather than move/ commute to Toronto if elected mpp . the last 2 provincial by-elections in Ottawa ( Ottawa west nepean and Ottawa South ) were much closer than expected and pc's put up strong fights only to lose close races to liberals . but Ottawa Vanier is a more naturally liberal riding than others in Ottawa and return of the students at university of Ottawa may help them as well
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( according to the star wynne plans to stick around as leader even thought the liberals are doing terrible in the polls and losing by elections in safe seats , I wonder how many of her mpp's will continue to support her and stick around till 2018 ? my guess is not as many is she'd like )


Wynne sticking around despite Scarborough-Rouge River byelection loss


Premier Kathleen Wynne plans to lead Liberals into 2018 Ontario campaign despite major byelection setback.


Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown, left, puts his arm around newly elected Scarborough-Rouge River MPP Raymond Cho, Sept. 1. (Chris Young / THE CANADIAN PRESS)



By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Fri., Sept. 2, 2016



Premier Kathleen Wynne plans to lead the Liberals into the 2018 provincial campaign despite a major byelection setback, losing Scarborough-Rouge River to the Progressive Conservatives.

Some triumphant Tories, thrilled at finally penetrating the Liberals’ long-time Toronto stronghold with Raymond Cho’s victory Thursday, are convinced Wynne, 63, will not stick around for the next election.

They believe Conservative Leader Patrick Brown, 38, is poised to bring the party back to power for the first time since 2003 and doubt the Liberal premier wants to wait for that.

But sources close to the hyper-competitive Wynne insist she will be at the top of the Grit ticket in the spring 2018 vote.

In a post-byelection statement Thursday night, the premier sounded elegiac in defeat.


“The result in Scarborough-Rouge River is disappointing and gives me cause for reflection,” Wynne said from Mexico, where she is on an Ontario trade mission and attending a climate-change summit.

“The good people of that riding have elected Liberals for many years. I’ll be talking with our Scarborough members in the coming days, as well as our outstanding candidate Pirigal Thiru,” she said.

Wynne — whose government been focusing on big-picture challenges like reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, boosting pension benefits, and building infrastructure — conceded the Liberals must pay heed to pocketbook issues.




“We heard at the door that hydro rates are increasingly challenging for people. I understand, as do my ministers, that the government needs to focus on helping people with their everyday expenses,” the premier said.

“I’m confident that by the general election — with our government’s record on transit, on education, on rebuilding roads, schools and hospitals, all delivered in a fiscally responsible way – (we) will regain the confidence of the people of Scarborough-Rouge River.”

It remains to be seen if Thursday’s results will have any impact on Wynne’s carbon-pricing plan that takes effect in January and will cost the average household an additional $13 a month in higher gasoline and natural gas charges.

Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid, who represents Scarborough Centre and admitted his disappointment at the result, stressed that “byelections are a time to listen.”

“As a party, we’ve been in power for many years because we do listen. We listen, we respond. We keep building Ontario up because that’s what Liberals do. We build Ontario up,” said Duguid.

Even with the huge win, the Conservatives are also doing some soul-searching.

That’s because last week the Tories distributed 13,000 copies of a letter – in English and Chinese — under Brown’s signature that said the party would scrap Wynne’s updated sex education curriculum if elected in 2018.

After five days of controversy, the leader claimed he did not approve the correspondence and apologized for the “mistake” in an online piece for the Star on Monday.

“Frankly, that hurt us. It probably hurt us significantly — the 500 plus votes that Raymond didn’t get,” said Brown, referring to anti-sex-ed Independent candidate Queenie Yu, who received 582 votes.

“I was glad to win it on the terms that we wanted to win it — on hydro, on jobs, on health care, on education,” the PC leader added.

Brown, who said he was “livid” about the letter, admitted his own team needs to be revamped before the 2018 election.

“The lesson for me is to continue to focus on the fundamentals: hydro, on jobs, on health-care. I have no interest in wading into social issues,” he said, emphasizing the Tories will keep the modernized sex-ed curriculum.

“I’m certainly going to be looking at our organization and how we conduct things. I obviously wasn’t happy with that.”

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, whose candidate, school board trustee Neethan Shan, finished third, will also be looking at lessons learned from the byelection.

Horwath’s championing of lower electricity rates and opposing the Liberal sale of the majority share of the Hydro One transmission utility did not appear to generate votes for the New Democrats.

MPPs return to Queen’s Park from the summer break on Sept. 12.

Here are the final results for a byelection in which turnout was a very low 28.14 per cent (down from 47.5 per cent in the riding during the June 2014 provincial election):

Raymond Cho, Progressive Conservative, 9,693 votes (38.6 per cent)

Piragal Thiru, Liberal 7,264 votes (28.9 per cent)

Neethan Shan, NDP, 6,883 votes (27.4 per cent)

Queenie Yu, Independent, 582 votes (2.3 per cent)

Priyan De Silva, Green, 217 votes (0.9 per cent)

Above Znoneofthe, None of the Above Party, 135 votes (0.5 per cent).

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/09/02/wynne-sticking-around-despite-scarborough-rouge-river-byelection-loss.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Byelection confirms Wynne’s unpopularity


First posted: Saturday, September 03, 2016 07:36 PM EDT | Updated: Saturday, September 03, 2016 07:40 PM EDT



Wynne Thiru
Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne with Scarborough-Rouge River candidate Piragal Thiru July 16, 2016. (Dave Thomas/Toronto Sun)





The byelection results in the provincial riding of Scarborough-Rouge River Thursday show there’s anger in the land aimed at Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals.

They were also good news for Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown, despite a last-minute controversy over his apparent flip-flop in support of Wynne’s sex-ed curriculum, which proved to be insignificant to the outcome.

Until Thursday, Scarborough-Rouge River was a Liberal stronghold.

The party had won it in every Ontario election since it was created in 1999 out of the previous riding of Scarborough North, which the Liberals had held since 1985.

In the 2014 election, Liberal MPP Bas Balkissoon, won Scarborough-Rouge River with 38.71% of the vote, followed by the New Democrats’ Neethan Shan with 31.31% and the PC’s Raymond Cho at 27.66%.

This time, Cho, a former Scarborough councillor, won easily with 38.58% of the vote. The Liberals’ Piragal Thiru finished a distant second with 28.91%, barely ahead of the NDP’s Shan at 27.40%.

That means the Conservative vote grew by 10.92% while the Liberals’ fell by 9.79%, moving the Tories from a distant third in 2014 to a convincing first Thursday.

While voter turnout was low, typical in a byelection, at 28.14% compared to 47.48% in 2014, Cho’s margin of victory was significant.

The conventional wisdom is that byelections are a way for voters to send a message to the government they are dissatisfied, without defeating it.

But the last opinion poll of Ontario voters by Forum Research on Aug. 17 showed dissatisfaction with the Liberals is widespread, with the PCs leading them by a margin of 41% to 28%, with Andrea Horwath’s NDP in third at 23%.

Of even greater concern for the Liberals is that Wynne’s approval rating is a dismal 16%.

To understand how low that is, Donald Trump is more than twice as popular with Americans as Wynne is with Ontarians, with an approval rating of 35%, as is Hillary Clinton at 41%.

And they are considered two of the most unpopular candidates to ever run for the U.S. presidency.

That said, it would be foolish to write off the Liberals, who were behind the Conservatives heading into the last three Ontario elections before pulling out victories.

Wynne is an effective campaigner, the Liberals are astute at defining their Conservative opponents before they can define themselves, and almost every day the Liberals are handing out infrastructure cheques to Ontario communities designed to win back support.

They have also built a powerful election machine financed through corporate and union donations and political support, especially among public sector unions, which represent more than one million Ontarians.

Brown’s path to victory lies in focusing on Ontario’s exorbitant hydro rates, $300 billion and rising public debt and countless examples of Liberal waste and mismanagement identified by the auditor general and ombudsman.

http://www.torontosun.com/2016.....popularity
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( after a summer of dismal polling numbers and a by-election loss in Toronto , hydro rates are now suddenly an urgent issue for wynne to deal with . anyone following politics can see rate thru this and her desperation , if average Ontario voters do to or if they are willing to give her a chance to deal with the problem ? )



Canada
September 7, 2016 5:04 pm Updated: September 7, 2016 9:56 pm
Premier Kathleen Wynne calls Ontario hydro rates an ‘urgent issue’ for her government

Head By Andrew Russell
National Online Reporter Global News



Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne says rising hydro bills are an “urgent issue” across the province, marking an about-face for the Liberal government who had previously downplayed rising energy costs for rural residents.



Wynne said in the Scarborough-Rouge River byelection the most consistent issue her government heard from Ontarians was the rising cost of electricity bills.

“It’s not something that is isolated to one riding in Toronto. It’s a concern across the province and I recognize that,” Wynne told reporters Wednesday. “I’ve heard those concerns and those concerns will become part of our considerations as we go.”

READ MORE: Ontario hydro costs: Timeline leading up to Wynne calling it an ’urgent issue’

She called the matter an “urgent issue” for the Minister of Energy Glenn Thibeault.

“We had to make the investments that we made to have the reliable electricity system in the province,” Wynne said. “I recognize that there’s a cost associated with them and I recognized that before the byelection and I’ve said we understand that we need to take that into account and come up with increasing or further mitigations.”

Francesca Dobbyn, executive director of the United Way of Bruce County said she was “thrilled” the premier had “finally heard that enough is enough.”

READ MORE: Sky-high hydro rates an ‘absolute crisis’ for rural Ontario

“It’s about time somebody recognized the crisis going on, not just here in rural Ontario but across Ontario where people are struggling with these extremely high utility bills,” she said.

“There’s definitely a big issue going on in our community and it’s become an urgent issue and it’s definitely a crisis.”

WATCH: Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne responds to a question about skyrocketing hydro costs in Ontario and says the issue is an urgent one for the minister of energy.


Play Video


Dobbyn said she wanted to see the provincial government engage with the charitable sector and ask what they and the community needs to resolve the issue across the province.

“They need to engage with those of us that are on the ground with these issues, rather than just making decisions and listening to the for-profit companies that have the ear of the politicians,” she said, adding that increasing the Ontario Energy Support Program up from $30 would go a long way in helping consumers.

“Double it. Just immediately flat out anybody who qualifies — double it. … Put a moratorium on disconnection right now. Just stop until we get an idea of what needs to happen and just slow this down and talk to us.”

READ MORE: New data highlights hydro affordability crisis for rural Ontario

The change in rhetoric from the Wynne government follows extensive reporting by Global News on the skyrocketing electricity rates and the financial toll it’s having on rural residents in Ontario that many have described as a crisis.

When Global News spoke with Thibeault in July, he was reluctant to say energy costs had reached a crisis point, instead urging residents to conserve more.

“I think it’s important for people to understand there’s a cost associated with getting the power from the generating station,” said Thibeault. “Every time someone turns on the light switch, or plugs something in, there’s a cost associated with that.”

Numbers released last month by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) showed 567,000 Ontario electricity customer accounts were in arrears by end of 2015, owing $172.5 million, a significant increased from the 472,620 customers who owed roughly $108 million in 2013.

WATCH: Rural Ontario’s soaring hydro costs


Play Video


Earlier this week, the Progressive Conservatives scored a shocking upset earlier this week in the Scarborough-Rouge River byelection. City councillor Raymond Cho won the riding, defeating the Liberals in a seat they have held since it was created in 1999.

After the stunning defeat, Premier Wynne admitted rising hydro rates are becoming a political issue she cannot ignore.

“We heard at the door that hydro rates are increasingly challenging for people,” she wrote. “I understand, as do my ministers, that the government needs to focus on helping people with their everyday expenses.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/2926.....overnment/
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The next election is roughly two years away;
I can't imagine the OLP walking into that election if the Premiers approval rating is still in the teens, its not the Liberal way.

My thought is that she has 12 months to right the ship otherwise we would see a "resignation" and a quick leadership convention likely resulting in someone from outside the immediate caucus taking leadership and promising to "clean up government".

The easiest way to turn around support is to buy off voters with their own money;
I would imagine renewed "energy rebates" modifications to "peak and off peak" rates or times. Some sort of non-permanent solution to energy costs which should coast right through till January 2019, basically after the next election.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The next election is roughly two years away;
I can't imagine the OLP walking into that election if the Premiers approval rating is still in the teens, its not the Liberal way.

My thought is that she has 12 months to right the ship otherwise we would see a "resignation" and a quick leadership convention likely resulting in someone from outside the immediate caucus taking leadership and promising to "clean up government".

The easiest way to turn around support is to buy off voters with their own money;
I would imagine renewed "energy rebates" modifications to "peak and off peak" rates or times. Some sort of non-permanent solution to energy costs which should coast right through till January 2019, basically after the next election.



I'm really starting to wonder whats going on , I can't really see Wynne resigning before the next election but I can't really see her leading the liberals into the next election either so what do they do ?
I'm starting to think she is running out of time to right this ship as they say , I'm really not sure how many by-election loses she can withstand , simcoe north didn't matter cause it always votes pc , Whitby Oshawa made her look bad but it also never votes liberal so it didn't hurt her that much but scarborough rouge river had been liberal since the 80's and never even voted for Mike Harris in 95 , its a really tough loss to explain to the liberal caucus .

but who else would lead the party ? is there any other obvious leadership contenders with seats in the legislature ? considering the mood in the province rate now it pretty much have to be someone with a seat cause finding a winnable riding might prove difficult although there may be some mpp's willing to retire or give up seats at this point .

I imagine they will try and find someway to bribe voters with there own money over the hydro issue , maybe some sort of rebate cheque or tax credit , something that gives back a little bit of money so people feel a bit better off
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also see her having more rough days ahead as I'm still really not convinced Ottawa Vanier is going to be an easy win this by-election .

the last 2 provincial by-elections in Ottawa , Ottawa West Nepean in 2010 and Ottawa South in 2013 , were won by relatively small margins even though they were fairly safe liberal ridings at the time and pc's ran lower profile candidates and not polling nearly as well province wide .
Ottawa west nepean was only won by 5% or 1000 votes in 2010 and the liberals had a star candidate in Bob Chiarelli a former mayor of Ottawa vs Beth Graham a relatively unknown pc candidate at the time .
Ottawa south was only won by about 5% or 1200 votes in 2013 and it had been premer Dalton mcguintys riding and normally won by larger margins . John Fraser went on to increase his margin of victory in 2014 but the by-election was very close by Ottawa standards .
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

I'm really starting to wonder whats going on , I can't really see Wynne resigning before the next election but I can't really see her leading the liberals into the next election either so what do they do ?
I'm starting to think she is running out of time to right this ship as they say , I'm really not sure how many by-election loses she can withstand , simcoe north didn't matter cause it always votes pc , Whitby Oshawa made her look bad but it also never votes liberal so it didn't hurt her that much but scarborough rouge river had been liberal since the 80's and never even voted for Mike Harris in 95 , its a really tough loss to explain to the liberal caucus .


Scarborough-Rouge River was really the only surprise and I would imagine the real eyeopener for the Liberals.

There was no expectation of the Liberals winning Simcoe or Oshawa-Whitby as they didn't hold the seat prior.

The issue with the Tories is that they poll well in the GTA when it doesn't matter and that support almost always vanishes during an election campaign and the Liberals know that.

Even if you look at the Etobicoke—Lakeshore By-Election win;
The PCs took someone who is incredibly respected in Etobicoke, the last mayor of the city before amalgamation and who had represented those voters since 1994 and you still barely won inside 4%

Scarborough-Rouge River was a situation where you took a councilor who doesn't live in the riding who finished 3rd in the last general election, yet you still won and you won by nearly 10% in a riding that has been red for decades.

That has to be a wake up call;
Because if that sentiment is consistent in Toronto then its consistent in the 905s and you lose virtually every bedroom community riding in Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, Pickering, Vaughan, etc

RCO wrote:

but who else would lead the party ? is there any other obvious leadership contenders with seats in the legislature ? considering the mood in the province rate now it pretty much have to be someone with a seat cause finding a winnable riding might prove difficult although there may be some mpp's willing to retire or give up seats at this point


Sandra Pupatello is a no-brainer;
She had the most committed delegates and won the first two ballots last leadership race.

If Gerard Kennedy doesn't pull another Dion and endorse Wynne then Pupatello becomes Premier.

She hasn't sat in caucus since 2011 and as a former chair of Hydro One she can argue she knows where the inefficiencies are and how to fix them.

She is also center-right and takes the air out of the PCs in the GTA.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

another eye opener for the liberals should be the fact they only reached 10,000 votes in 1 of the 4 by-elections so far and that was in Sudbury and not by much . in simcoe north , Whitby Oshawa and scarborough rogue river they couldn't even pass 10,000 votes .
that clearly shows that average grassroots liberals aren't very motivated to vote in these by-elections and aren't overly thrilled with the wynne government .

I don't know who possible leadership candidates would be at this point , I don't think there is anyone obvious in the current caucus and its unclear if former candidates like pupatello or kennedy would want to run again especially without being an mpp and in legislature .
realistically the Ontario liberals are pass there best before date , if anyone had said back in 2003 that they'd be in power till 2018 people wouldn't of believed they'd last that long , at some point another party is going to form a new government , the question is will it be in 2018 or beyond ? I think Ontario voters are ready for one in 2018
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wanted to add , I don't think today's throne speech is going to significantly alter things unless there is something really significant in it which is doubtful . the government has been in power way too long for one little throne speech to alter things at this point . it just seems weird that there even having a new throne speech at this point in there term , either way its still the same old government lead by a tired and unpopular leader In wynne .
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( provincial liberal support for Wynne is plunging in Ontario , now 45 pc to 25 lib and 23 ndp , even in Toronto 416 its 40 pc to 33 lib . more dismal news for wynne , time to resign and get the hell out of there )


PCs Widen the Gap in Ontario

September 15, 2016 @ 10:40 AM | Filed under: Ontario




PCs Widen the Gap in Ontario
70% PC majority seen; NDP as opposition

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1154 Ontario voters, close to one half would vote Progressive Conservative if the election were held today (45%), while just one quarter (25%) would vote Liberal, for a 20 point gap between the two parties. This is an increase from a 13 point gap noted last month (August 15, PC - 41%, Liberal - 28%). The NDP currently has a vote share of just less than a quarter (23%) and this has not changed since last month. One twentieth support the Green Party (6%) and few support any other party (2%).

The PCs are especially strong in Eastern Ontario (51%), while the Liberals have their best showing in the city of Toronto (33%), Nonetheless, the PCs lead in the city (40%).





A significant gender gap exists in that males predominate in PC ranks (51% to 39% female), while females are more common among Liberal supporters (29% to 21% male). The one group with which the Liberals score highest is the best educated (post grad - 37%).

70% majority seen: NDP to form opposition

If these results are projected up to sets in the legislature, the Progressive Conservatives would take 70% of them, or 75 seats, to 24 for the New Democrats. The Liberals would keep just 8 seats.

Leader approvals are stable

Fewer than a fifth of voters approve of Kathleen Wynne (16%), and this is as low as she has polled. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a deeply negative - 58.

Patrick Brown has the approval of just more than a quarter (27%), and, owing to the high unknowns (48%), has a net score of just +1.



Andrea Horwath has the approval of a third of voters (36%), and her net favourable score is a positive +11.

Patrick Brown seen to be best Premier, along with “none of these"





One quarter of voters pick Patrick Brown as the best potential Premier (25%), the same proportion who say none of the leaders listed can do the job (24%). Andrea Horwatch follows, with a fifth of the vote (19%) and the incumbent brings up the rear with about one sixth of the vote share (15%).

“The gap between the two leading parties is growing, and it’s only a matter of time until the NDP takes over second place in the popular vote share like it has with the projected number of seats. Andrea Horwath doesn’t score very high in approvals, but she still scores higher than anyone else" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.




Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....n-ontario/
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( liberals already getting ready for election even though its almost 2 years away )


Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals gear up for 2018 campaign


Governing party is getting into election mode, even though the next provincial campaign is 20 months away. Pat Sorbara will helm the governing party’s spring 2018 re-election effort.


Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne and Charles Sousa, following the speech from the throne, opening the second session of the 41st Parliament of Ontario, Sept. 12.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne and Charles Sousa, following the speech from the throne, opening the second session of the 41st Parliament of Ontario, Sept. 12. (Peter Power / THE CANADIAN PRESS file photo)


By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Mon., Sept. 19, 2016



Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are getting into election mode, even though the next provincial campaign is 20 months away.

Pat Sorbara, one of Wynne’s most powerful aides and a key figure in the Sudbury byelection saga, is leaving the premier’s office to helm the party’s spring 2018 re-election effort.

The move announced Monday is significant because it comes as both the Liberals and their leader are lagging well behind Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives in public opinion polls despite a reboot with a speech from the throne last week.

A memo signed by Wynne and party president Vince Borg said Sorbara, the premier’s deputy chief of staff, will become CEO and director of the Liberal campaign on Oct. 3.

Strategist David Herle will serve as campaign manager and deputy premier Deb Matthews and Tim Murphy, former chief of staff to prime minister Paul Martin, will be co-chairs, reprising their roles from the 2014 election victory.


The operations of the Ontario Liberal Party and the Ontario Liberal Fund have been consolidated in the wake of reforms to campaign financing sparked by a Star series; long-time charity fundraiser Zak Bailey will take charge of the Grits’ electoral fundraising.

Bailey will report to Sorbara, who is still the subject of a seemingly stalled Ontario Provincial Police investigation into alleged Elections Act violations stemming from the February 2015 Sudbury byelection. She has denied any wrongdoing and was earlier cleared of more serious criminal allegations.

In April, criminal bribery charges related to the matter were stayed against Sudbury businessman and Liberal activist Gerry Lougheed.




Acting on a complaint by the Conservatives, the OPP alleged Lougheed, who denies doing anything wrong, offered ex-Liberal candidate Andrew Olivier an appointment for dropping his Grit nomination bid to clear the way for Glenn Thibeault, now the energy minister.

Olivier ended up running as an independent and finished third.

Sorbara’s replacement in the premier’s office will be Liberal stalwart Moira McIntyre, now chief of staff to Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca.

In another change, Wynne’s policy czar, Karim Bardeesy, who teaches at the University of Toronto’s School of Public Policy and Governance, is leaving as deputy principal secretary.

Bardeesy, a former top aide to premier Dalton McGuinty, will be succeeded by Mary Rowe, who has been working with non-governmental organizations in New York.

The urgency surrounding the Liberals — they have been in office since 2003 and hoping a new 8 per cent harmonized sales tax rebates to hydro ratepayers will ignite voter passion — is a stark contrast to Brown’s Conservatives, who have yet to retain a campaign manager.

Some Tories want him to anoint Nick Kouvalis, who will again run Toronto Mayor John Tory’s campaign in 2018 and is currently busy with MP Kellie Leitch’s federal Conservative leadership bid and B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark’s 2017 re-election.

But, as the Star reported last March, Kouvalis is not even on speaking terms with the PC leader.

Sources say other top Conservative operatives, including veterans from former prime minister Stephen Harper’s campaigns, are taking a pass, which is unusual since polls suggest the Tories are well-positioned to return to power in an election to be held in May or June 2018.

The recent byelection win by Progressive Conservative MPP Raymond Cho in Scarborough-Rouge River gave them a Toronto foothold, and a Forum Research poll last week had them at 45 per cent to 25 per cent for the Liberals, 23 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s NDP, and 6 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.

But Brown has admitted he has organizational problems to sort out.

The Star revealed Friday that his chief of staff, Nicolas Pappalardo, was in secret talks with social conservatives during the Scarborough-Rouge River well before Tories distributed a controversial byelection letter promising to “scrap” the sex-education curriculum if elected in 2018.

While the Aug. 24 letter bore the leader’s signature, Brown has claimed he did not know it was being circulated, despite the fact Pappalardo and party president Rick Dykstra and others were aware.

Sex education was a hot-button topic during the contest and the Tories were worried about losing votes to Queenie Yu, an independent candidate running a platform opposing the curriculum.

“I’m not going to comment on internal operations. I’ve said that a mistake was made. I’ve apologized for it and I’ve made my opinions on sex education abundantly clear,” Brown said last Thursday, emphasizing the curriculum “will be intact” if he wins the next election.

During the 2015 PC leadership campaign, he assured social conservatives he “will repeal it,” according to emails he sent the Campaign Life Coalition that were published Monday by the Toronto Sun.

The flip-flop has some Tories concerned that Brown may be pandering by saying different things to different groups.


https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/09/19/kathleen-wynnes-liberals-gear-up-for-2018-campaign.html
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Ontario pc's lead liberals 41% to 28 % in new poll

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