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RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

more crazy trump polls

Arizona - trump 49 , Clinton 44 , Johnson 5

Arizona - trump 47 , Clinton 43 , Johnson 2 , stein 2

( it does not appear that Arizona is going to flip democratic as Clinton hoped , a major blow to her chances of finding a red state to flip blue )

Georgia - trump 51 , Clinton 42 , Johnson 2

( there also doesn't appear to be any chance that Georgia is going to flip either )


Missouri - trump 52 , Clinton 37 , Johnson 5 , stein 2

( had only been a 5% lead now its that big , middle America is really moving towards trump , this state is about as average a state you could find , a bit urban , suburban and rural all in one )

Nevada - trump 49 , Clinton 43 , Johnson 5

( this state had been closer but really shifting towards trump if poll accurate )


Ohio - trump 46 , Clinton 41 , Johnson 5 , stein 2

( trump leads in the critical state of ohio )


Pennsylvania - Clinton 48 , trump 44 , Johnson 4 , stein 2
Clinton 45 , trump 43 , Johnson 2 , stein 2
Clinton 48 , trump 43 , Johnson 3 , stein 3
Clinton 48 , trump 44 , Johnson 3 , stein 1

( Clinton still leads in all new Penn state polls by 2% - 5% )

Florida - Clinton 49 , trump 47 , Johnson 3 , stein 1

( Clinton has a tiny lead in florida )

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

some new national polls show for ( CBS and ABC ) small Clinton leads of 2 % - 3 %


however new state polls show more closer races than a couple weeks ago in many swing states

Arkansas - not a swing state but look at trumps lead , this is Clinton's home state

trump 51, Clinton 31

New Hampshire - 40 trump , 39 Clinton , 10 Johnson , 3 stein

( much closer than earlier polls that had Clinton ahead )


Virginia - trump 44 , Clinton 41

( one of the only polls to have trump ahead in this state , if accurate greatly changes the race )

Colorado - 39 Clinton , 39 trump , 5 Johnson , 4 stein

( very close race in what could be one of the deciding states )


http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( more troubling news about the investigation into the Clinton foundation , FBI finding a lot of evidence but told to stand down ? )


FBI told to 'stand down' in Clinton Foundation investigation: Report


Postmedia Network

First posted: Thursday, November 03, 2016 01:34 PM EDT | Updated: Thursday, November 03, 2016 03:27 PM EDT



Clinton Foundation
This file photo taken on September 19, 2016 shows ormer US President and founder of the Clinton Foundation Bill Clinton speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative on in New York. A new report states the FBI has been aggressively investigation the Clinton Foundation for the past year, but was told to stand down at the same time by Justice Department officials. (BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP/Getty Images)



A new report says the FBI has been 'aggressively' investigating the Clinton Foundation for the past year, while at the same time being told to 'stand down' by Justice Department officials.

The report from the Wall Street Journal revealed secret recordings, taken during an unrelated corruption investigation, were made of a suspect talking about the Clinton Foundation. The newspaper says the FBI believed the recordings contained enough material to merit an investigation on the pay-for-play claims made in Peter Schweizer's book "Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich," while the Justice Department viewed the recordings as 'worthless hearsay.'

The Journal reports the FBI went ahead with their investigation in the summer of 2015 and it is still underway, though the FBI and prosecutors have become 'increasingly frustrated with each other.'

According to the Journal, a top Justice Department official called FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe in August to ask why agents in New York wouldn't "let it go" -- a sentiment also expressed by U.S. Attorney for Brooklyn Robert Capers to officials. The Journal says the conversation was tense "and at one point Mr. McCabe asked, 'Are you telling me that I need to shut down a validly predicated investigation?' The senior Justice Department official replied: 'Of course not.'"

Fox News anchor Bret Baier elaborated on his show Wednesday night, saying "the investigation into the Clinton Foundation, looking into possible pay-for-play interaction between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Foundation has been going on for more than a year... agents have interviewed and re-interviewed multiple people about the Foundation case and even before the WikiLeaks dumps these sources said agents had collected a great deal of evidence."

http://www.torontosun.com/2016.....ion-report
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the ABC tracking poll has gone back to a 3% Clinton lead , but others still have the race tied or trump ahead .


a few new polls from New Hampshire , seem to show a very close race either tied or 1% either way

new poll 44 trump , 44 Clinton , 4 Johnson , 1 stein


Pennsylvania - trump 46 , Clinton 47 , Johnson 3 , stein 2

( this would be one of the closer polls from PA so far this election if accurate )


Utah - trump 40 , Clinton 20 , mcmullin 28 , Johnson 3 , stein 2
trump 43 , Clinton 31 , mcmullin 21 ,Johnson 3

( it does not appear Utah is going to flip as first though might be possible )

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Early voting: Tighter race, but still good signs for Clinton


Hope Yen, The Associated Press
Published Thursday, November 3, 2016 10:40AM EDT
Last Updated Thursday, November 3, 2016 6:42PM EDT


WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton may not be accumulating the type of early-vote advantage her campaign wanted, but she continues to maintain an apparent edge over Donald Trump, with more than one-quarter of all expected ballots cast in the 2016 election.

The Democrat's campaign once hoped to bank substantial votes from Democrats in North Carolina and Florida before Election Day. Both are must-win states for Trump.

But data about the early vote suggest she's not doing as well as President Barack Obama in 2012. Ballot requests from likely supporters have been weak in parts of the Midwest, and African-American turnout has fallen, too.

Early voting
In this Nov. 1, 2016, photo, a voter is reflected in the glass frame of a poster while leaving a polling site during early voting ahead of next week's election in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

Still, the tens of millions of early votes cast also point to strength from Democratic-leaning Latino voters, potentially giving Clinton a significant advantage in Nevada and Colorado. With more than half the votes already cast in those states, Democrats are matching if not exceeding their successful 2012 pace, according to data compiled by The Associated Press.

"We are seeing the trajectory of the election change in some states, but Democrats are also making up ground," said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor and expert in voter turnout.

Early voting -- by mail and at polling stations -- is underway in 37 states. At least 35.1 million votes have been cast, representing more than 25 per cent of the total votes expected nationwide if turnout is similar to 2012. In all, more than 46 million people -- or as much as 40 per cent of the electorate -- are expected to vote before Tuesday, according to AP data.

The results of those votes won't be known until polls close next week. But early voting data -- party affiliation, race and other details -- are being carefully examined for clues about the ballots that have been cast so far.

A look at the latest trends:

RACE TIGHTENS IN NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA

In North Carolina and Florida, Democrats did better with mail balloting than they had in previous elections. They expected to build on that with the start of in-person voting, where Democrats traditionally do well. But the big turnout -- especially among black voters -- hasn't yet happened.

In North Carolina, with more than half of the expected vote already cast, Democrats lead in ballots submitted, 43 per cent to 32 per cent. But that's slightly below the same period in 2012, when Mitt Romney narrowly won the state.

This year, fewer polling locations were open in Democratic-leaning counties in the first week of early voting. More locations have since opened, but Democrats are still trying to catch up. Voting by African-Americans has declined to 22 per cent of the early vote, from 28 per cent in 2012. The white vote has risen to about 73 per cent from 67 per cent.

In Florida, more than half of voters have already cast ballots. Democrats remain virtually tied with Republicans. At this point in 2008 and 2012, Democrats held an advantage in ballots cast. Obama won the state both years.

The black share of ballots is down, while the Latino share is up.

Democrats and Republican analysts say they see signs that Republican early voters are those who previously voted on Election Day, while Democrats are drawing new voters. That would be good news for Democrats.

"I'm still bullish that Clinton will get to the 270 electoral votes" needed to win the White House, said Scott Tranter, co-founder of the Republican data firm Optimus.

RISING LATINO VOTE MAY BOOST CLINTON

Latinos may be providing Clinton with support she needs in key Western states.

In swing-state Nevada, where half the total ballots have been cast, Democrats lead with 42 per cent to 37 per cent.

That's comparable to the party's share at this point in 2012, good news for Clinton since Obama ultimately won the state by 6 percentage points. Ballots from Latinos and Asian-Americans -- another group that tends to vote Democratic -- are up, while ballots from African-American and white voters are down.

More than 1.4 million residents have cast ballots in Colorado, or more than half the expected vote. Democrats hold the advantage, 36 per cent to 35 per cent. Colorado, for the first time in a presidential election, is voting mostly by mail. At this point in 2012, Republicans held the advantage.

In Arizona, where two-thirds of votes have been cast, Democrats trail by 6 percentage points. But at this point in 2012, Republicans had opened a lead of roughly 10 percentage points. The share of independent voters or those whose party affiliation is unknown is also up slightly.

Turnout rose among all races, but at higher rates among Hispanics.

"Arizona is close," Tranter said.

In Republican-leaning Texas, 3.3 million votes have been cast in the top 15 counties, up 36 per cent. The state does not present breakdowns by party. Voter modeling by Catalist , a Democratic analytical firm, found ballots increasing by all race groups, but at sharper rates among Latinos.

WHITES BUOY TRUMP IN OHIO, IOWA

Trump may hold an edge in Ohio and Iowa, two states he's counting on to reach 270.

In Ohio, the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin are posting declines in ballot requests compared to 2012, while Republican-leaning counties such as Warren have seen an increase. The state does not break down ballots by party. Voter modeling by Catalist found the white share of Ohio ballot requests was up to 90 per cent from 87 per cent. The black share fell to 8 per cent from 11 per cent.

Obama won Iowa in 2012 due to his strength in early voting. This year, Democrats lead there in both ballots requested and returned, 43 per cent to 34 per cent. But Democrats are running behind 2012 levels based on requested ballots, while Republicans are mostly on pace.

But Republicans may be having trouble flipping another state, Wisconsin, that voted for Obama in the last two elections. Overall turnout in Wisconsin is outpacing 2012, with bigger shares coming from major Democratic counties such as Dane and Milwaukee.

DEFENDING REPUBLICAN TURF

Trump also may be holding ground in two Republican-leaning states that Clinton targeted.

In Georgia, the number of ballots submitted has increased mostly among whites, while the black share has declined.

In Utah, Republicans lead in returned ballots, 46 per cent to 15 per cent; no party voters made up 35 per cent. The Republican share in ballots is down from 2012 but improved from a week ago.

AP's Election Research and Quality Control Group in New York contributed to this report.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ea.....-1.3144329
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

more new polls

New Mexico - Clinton 46 , trump 43 , Johnson 7

( seems to be getting much closer than before and Johnson is not holding his vote even in his own state as he had been doing much better )

Michigan - Clinton 42 , trump 38 , Johnson 5

( also appears to getting closer although Clinton has lead in every poll so far this election , the last 2 polls however her lead was within margin of error , so maybe trump is doing better here than first though )

Kansas - trump 58 , Clinton 34

( it was going to go red anyways but by this much ? )


Iowa - trump 44 , Clinton 41 , Johnson 5 , stein 4

( seems to be leaning towards trump but remains close )


Pennsylvania - Clinton 46 , trump 46 , Johnson 2 , stein 1

( does appear to be really close , the turnout could decide the winner , the cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are home to most of the democratic Voters , rest of the state is almost all republican areas , its very tough to call )


Wisconsin - Clinton 44 , trump 38 , Johnson 7 , stein 2

( Clinton has lead in every poll from this state entire election , even with republican governor Scott Walker supporting trump it does not appear this state is going to flip )

Georgia - trump 49 , Clinton 45 , Johnson 6
trump 48 , Clinton 46 , Johnson 4

( seems close but Clinton has too many other states to worry about than focus here , also if the black turnout was not enough for Obama to win here in 08 and 12 , its not likely going to be enough for Clinton , but its odd that both main candidates seem to be ignoring this state even though polls have it close )

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( sounds like democrats are plotting to try and fire the FBI director for investigating the Clinton's )

Dems trying to nudge Comey out at FBI after Clinton probe decision


Published November 04, 2016
· FoxNews.com




Top Democrats are ratcheting up their criticism of FBI Director James Comey for going public with a decision to revisit the Hillary Clinton email probe days before the election, with a few even hinting they want him fired -- though President Obama has shown little indication he'd oblige right now.

Valerie Jarrett, Obama’s chief adviser, reportedly is among those who want Comey gone.

“Valerie argued that Comey was interfering deliberately in the election process and had to be stopped,” a source told The New York Post. The same source said Obama, though, is “worried about the consequences of taking such an action – the tsunami of outrage that would come his way, and possibly become a major footnote, or worse, in the history of the presidency.”

The outrage from Democrats in recent days has been matched by applause from Republicans, in a reversal from the summer -- when GOP lawmakers were grumbling about Comey's decision not to pursue charges in the Clinton case and Democrats praised Comey's professionalism.

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mike McCaul, R-Texas, called Comey a "hero" and ripped Jarrett.

“I don’t think Valerie Jarrett has any credibility here,” he told Fox News.


Comey notified Congress last Friday that during an investigation of Clinton confidant Huma Abedin’s estranged husband Anthony Weiner, FBI agents found indications that a laptop used by the disgraced congressman contained some emails related to the FBI’s earlier probe of Clinton’s private computer server.

The disclosure, coming 11 days before the election, roiled the presidential campaign as top Democrats sprung into damage control.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told CNN, “Maybe he’s not in the right job.”

She added, “I think that we have to just get through this election and just see what the casualties are along the way.”

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer called Comey’s actions “appalling,” adding that he has lost “confidence” in the director.

Schumer’s comments come on the heels of outgoing Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid accusing Comey of possibly violating federal law.

In an Oct. 30 letter to Comey, Reid said Comey may have violated the Hatch Act, which prohibits government officials from using their positon of power to influence an election.

Republicans blasted Reid for the letter.

Meanwhile, as Democrats pile on the criticism, a new report in The Guardian seems to indicate many FBI agents are backing Donald Tump.

“The FBI is Trumpland,” one agent told the paper.

The unnamed agent said Clinton is “the antichrist personified to a large swath of FBI personnel” and is the reason why so many leaks about the investigation have been anti-Clinton and pro-Trump.

FoxNews.com has not independently verified the claims made by the FBI agent.

http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....ision.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( news of a rogue electoral college voter in Washington state )


Washington state elector says he won't vote for Clinton


Published November 05, 2016
· FoxNews.com



A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday that he would not cast his Electoral College vote for Hillary Clinton if, as is likely, she wins the state in Tuesday's election.

Robert Satiacum, a member of the Puyallup Tribe, supported Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, which the Vermont senator won by approximately a 3-to-1 margin. He said he believes Clinton is a "criminal" who doesn't care enough about American Indians and "she's done nothing but flip back and forth."

He said he has wrestled with what to do, but feels that neither Clinton nor Republican Donald Trump can lead the country.

"She will not get my vote, period," he said in a phone interview with The Associated Press.

Satiacum said he believes Sanders did a better job of reaching out to Native Americans. "She doesn't care about my land or my air or my fire or my water," he said of Clinton.

Americans vote for the president on Election Day, but they're really casting votes for each state's electors, who will decide the next president on Dec. 19.


In all but two states (Maine and Nebraska), the winner of the state's popular vote gets all of the state's electors. There's nothing in the Constitution that says the electors are required to vote for a particular candidate, but some states have penalties for so-called "faithless electors." Satiacum faces a $1,000 fine in Washington if he doesn't vote for Clinton, but he said he doesn't care.

"I hope it comes down to a swing vote and it’s me,” he told The Seattle Times. "Good. She ain’t getting it. Maybe it’ll wake this country up."


Satiacum is one of 12 Democratic electors in Washington, which has 12 electoral votes and has not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Satiacum said he has gotten a lot of criticism since he told media outlets last month that he might not vote for Clinton. But he said he has also heard from electors in other states who thanked him for speaking out. He said he hopes some of those electors follow his lead.

At the time of of Satiacum's initial statements, the Puyallup Tribal Council issued a statement saying that he had pledged to support the winner of the state's popular vote Nov. 8 and "risks dishonoring himself" if he does not do so.

According to the National Archives, 99 percent of electors through U.S. history have voted for their party's candidate, and none of the dissenters has ever changed the result of an election.

http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....inton.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ABC tracking has Clinton going up but the others aren't showing that much of a rise if any , there numbers have been really odd , started out with a huge Clinton lead , then it got smaller , then tied and trump ahead now going back to crazy Clinton numbers , not sure how accurate it is if at all




New mexico Clinton 45 , trump 40 , Johnson 11 , stein 3


( it seems to be close but likely not enough to flip to trump )

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the 2 main swing states look razor close as these new polls seem to indicate

Ohio - trump 46 , Clinton 45 , Johnson 3 , stein 2
trump 47 , Clinton 48

Florida - trump 45 , Clinton 45 , Johnson 4 , stein 2



http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

many of the national polls seem to show a small Clinton lead , however its going to come down to the swing states and there much closer


Florida - trump 45 , Clinton 46 , Johnson 2 , stein 1

Ohio trump 46 , Clinton 39 , Johnson 7 , stein 3

( other polls have showed ohio much closer and had the third parties doing much worse )

North Carolina - Clinton 47 , trump 45 , Johnson 3
Clinton 44 , trump 44 , Johnson 3

( remains a very close race , too close to call )


Nevada - trump 46 , Clinton 47 , Johnson 4
trump 46 , Clinton 45 , Johnson 3

( Nevada remains very close 1 % lead in either polls )


New Mexico - Clinton 46 , trump 44 , Johnson 6 , stein 1

( a surprisingly close race in new mexico , was seen as an easy Clinton win )


New Hampshire - Clinton 45 , trump 44 , Johnson 5 , stein 3
Clinton 49 , trump 38 , Johnson 6 , stein 1

( 2 very different polls , the first one also had republican senate candidate leading and other had democrat leading , the second poll seems to have polled too many democrats for some reason as every other poll has NH closer than 11 % )

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....est_polls/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still don't see a path to Victory for Donald Trump at this point;
That aside, the more interesting thing to watch tomorrow will be if the GOP retains the Senate.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I still don't see a path to Victory for Donald Trump at this point;
That aside, the more interesting thing to watch tomorrow will be if the GOP retains the Senate.



the path for Clinton is clearly easier than trump , she could lose some of the states Obama won and still win like Iowa and Ohio , but would have to hold Florida or Michigan ,
trump needs to make gains somewhere and hold North Carolina which is razor close , the potential gains are very unclear , many states are close but he's not ahead enough to say for sure


the senate I haven't posted much about it , the democrats are almost certain to win back some of the seats they lost in 2010 like Illinois , as to some of the closer races its very hard to say either way , some are polling 1% or tied and no one seems to know which way they will go , states like New Hampshire also have a history of " splitting tickets " , so a Clinton win there wouldn't necessary mean the democrats take the senate seat as well it might stay republican
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I still don't see a path to Victory for Donald Trump at this point;
That aside, the more interesting thing to watch tomorrow will be if the GOP retains the Senate.



I still don't see trump being out of it , despite the new polls released today by the mainstream media showing Clinton ahead nationally by a few points

if you look at the real clear politics map , they say minimum 164 electoral votes for trump , the core red states and such

then if you add the 2 states ( Arizona and Georgia ) that normally vote republican and that Hilary hasn't polled ahead in he is at 191

then if you look at Ohio , Florida and North Carolina , all very close margin or error leads you have 62 possible electoral votes , if he somehow won all 3 he'd be at 253

Pennsylvania is another close state it hasn't voted republican for president in some time but polls have been close if he won it he'd be at 273 and would win . but it might stay democratic

Michigan is also close and worth 16 votes but hasn't voted republican for president in years , trump has been there a lot , I don't know ?

so it could then come down to the smaller states- Colorado 9 votes , Iowa 6 votes , Nevada 6 votes , new Hampshire 4 votes , New Mexico 5 votes , Maine 4 votes , a combination could be enough

but it really comes down to florida for trump , if he doesn't win there , the math doesn't really add up ( unless he swept the Midwest which is not likely ) , Clinton could possibly win without florida , I think bill Clinton did once but trump likely could not
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

today is the big day , not going to make an official prediction but think its going to be closer than some people think , maybe a couple states or 1 state either way when the final numbers are counted
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