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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

April 18, 2016 9:15 am Updated: April 18, 2016 9:20 am

9 Manitoba ridings to watch on election night

Katie_Dangerfield By Katie Dangerfield
Online Producer Global News

WINNIPEG — When Manitoba voters watch Tuesday’s election results, they’ll be looking at one big race – who will be premier of the province – and 57 smaller races.

Keeping track of all the ridings can be daunting, especially when many constituencies are expected to switch seats.

Global News talked with political analyst Christopher Adams about which ridings watch for for on April 19.

Here are nine of them.


Global News

Assiniboia: This riding was held by the Tories until NDP’s Jim Rondeau was elected in 1999, who won by just three votes. Since then, Rondeau has built up his margin of victory in each election. However, the seat is up for grabs this year at Rondeau is not seeking re-election, and there is a strong Progressive Conservative candidate in the running – former Member of Parliament Steven Fletcher. Adams said because of Fletcher’s strong name recognition, this is a riding that could turn blue.

Brandon East: Since 1969 this riding has been safe for the NDP. However, for the first time in nearly 50 years the party is at risk of losing the constituency to the Tories, said Adams. NDP’s Drew Caldwell is seeking re-election, but a December 2015 poll showed his support dropping, with only 18 per cent of those asked saying they would vote for Caldwell, who has been the riding’s MLA since 1999. Adams said Len J. IsLeifson, the former city councillor, is a strong PC candidate here, meaning the riding could turn blue on April 19.

Burrows: Incumbent NDP Melanie Wight is defending her seat from four rookie politicians, includingCindy Lamoureux, the daughter of former MLA Kevin Lamoureux. Adams said Lamoureux’s name recognition means the historically orange riding could turn red on election night.

Dauphin: This riding has been a stronghold for the NDP, but veteran MLA Stan Struthers’ retirement means the area is very vulnerable, said Adams. Struthers was part of the ‘Rebel Five’ who started a revolt against the party leadership in 2014, and resigned from his cabinet position.

Fort Rouge: This riding is going to be one of the biggest ridings to watch for, according to Adams. With the departure of Jennifer Howard, who was part of the rebel five, there are strong candidates facing off. The NDP have star candidate Wab Kinew seeking election, but he came under fire this campaign for controversial lyrics he wrote years ago. The leader of the Liberal Party, Rana Bokhari is running, while the PC’s also have a well-known candidate, Audrey Gordan. Adams said this riding seems to be a three way race.

Kirkfield Park: Prior to the 2007 election, this riding was held exclusively by the Tories since its creation in 1981. However, in 2007 NDP MLA Sharon Blady won by over 1,000 votes more than the PC candidate. She repeated the victory in 2011—but by just 21 votes, the smallest margin in the province. In this election she faces off against a PC star candidate, Scott Fielding, who held a city council seat in roughly the same area.

River Heights: The constituency has been Liberal since 1999, when former Liberal leader Jon Gerrard took the seat. Although Gerrard is seeking re-election, there is a threat from PC candidate, Tracey Maconachie, who is the current president of the Life Sciences Association of Manitoba. In the 2011 election Gerrard took the win with 45 per cent of the votes with PC candidate Marty Morantz hot on his heels with 32 per cent.

Selkirk: NDP incumbent Greg Dewer has held this riding since 1999, but this could change on April 19, said Adams. The riding is an area that demographically fits a Tories profile, and federally has elected PC MP James Bezan, said Adams. However the provincial PC candidate, David Horbas, was dumped in January 2016, after the Tories posted a statement citing that the party had concerns about his campaign involvement and level of performance. Alan Lagimodiere is now running.

Tyndall Park: This riding has been held by the NDPs since its creation in 2008. However, this is another constituency that may go Liberal on election night, said Adams. The Liberal candidate, Aida Champagne is well-known in the community and stands a chance of taking the seat away from NDP incumbent Ted Marcelin.

South half of Winnipeg: While not a specific riding, this is a large area to watch for come Tuesday evening. Adams said the entire south half of Winnipeg is vulnerable of switching from NDP to PC or Liberal. This includes areas such as St. Norbert, Fort Richmond, Southdale and Seine River.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


I think the Tories over 40 seats and the NDP under 14 is a little optimistic for the Tories.
Would be impressive for the Tories to flip 20+ NDP seats but it seems a little too good to be true.

If the Tories walk out with 35 seats (exactly what the NDP has now) that would be quite the coup in itself.[/quote]

the numbers going in to the election were 35 ndp , 19 pc , 1 lib , none of the polls have shown the ndp anywhere near what they got in 2011 and all have had the pc's ahead . there hasn't been as much polling done this last week so unclear if the ndp attacks on the pc's over pallister trips to costa rica or health care made the race closer . polls have also shown a dramatic slide in liberal support from earlier highs .

it really comes down to how many ridings do the pc's win outside of Winnipeg and how many ndp ridings in Winnipeg flip pc . its not really a question if the pc's hold the rural seats they already have but ridings like Dauphin , Brandon east and gimli are very vulnerable ndp seats . if the ndp holds northern seats like the pas , flin flon and Thompson it maintain a large presence in legislature .

then we have Winnipeg , the pc's seem to be doing a lot better , liberals were doing better but seem to have fallen back , I'd really wonder if the liberals win any ridings and if they do maybe 1-2 seats unless support comes back . the ndp have a lot of vulnerable seats in the city, I suspect the core downtown areas are safe according to poll I saw but ridings around city more questionable and is where pc's could make gains

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Manitoba election: 15 constituencies to watch

Manitobans head to the polls Tuesday, April 19

CBC News Posted: Apr 18, 2016 10:31 AM CT| Last Updated: Apr 18, 2016 11:52 AM CT

Manitoba legislative building
These 15 Manitoba constituencies could produce interesting election-night stories. (Mainstreet/PostMedia)

Manitobans head to the polls Tuesday to vote in 57 constituencies.

Here is a list of constituencies with interesting races to watch on election night.

1. Assiniboia

Former Conservative MP Steven Fletcher is running for the Progressive Conservatives. The seat was held by the NDP's Jim Rondeau, who was dropped from cabinet and is not running in this campaign.

2. Brandon East

This constituency has always been NDP, but may turn this time. Drew Caldwell has held the seat since 1999.

3. Fort Richmond

New Democrat Kerri Irvin-Ross is one of the only cabinet ministers to run in this election. She held the difficult portfolio of family services minister when it was discovered children in care were still being housed in hotels. That practice has now changed.

4. Fort Rouge

This constituency is really up for grabs. The NDP's Jennifer Howard, one of the "gang of five" ministers to unsuccessfully challenge Greg Selinger's leadership, recently announced she wasn't running. That made way for broadcaster and university administrator Wab Kinew to run for the NDP. He was challenged over misogynistic and homophobic comments in his tweets and lyrics that surfaced during the campaign. He is running against Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari, who's made a series of missteps this campaign, including losing six candidates. Audrey Gordon, a longtime civil servant in health care, is running for the PCs.
■ANALYSIS: 12 candidates to watch on election night in Manitoba

5. Gimli

The seat was left vacant after NDP's Peter Bjornson, MLA since 2003, stepped down. The constituency is about as close as it gets to a bellwether constituency, often electing someone who belongs to the winning party.

6. Kirkfield Park

It was the one to watch during the last election. It was the tightest race; New Democrat Sharon Blady won by only 21 votes. This time, Blady, who was most recently in cabinet as health minister, is being challenged by Scott Fielding, who was a city councillor.

7. Riel

New Democrat Christine Melnick was once in cabinet, then was out of cabinet. She's been in and out of favour with the party and is now back in the NDP caucus. She's being challenged by the PCs' Rochelle Squires, who was once a party spokesperson.

8. River Heights

The only Liberal seat in the Manitoba Legislature has been held by Jon Gerrard since 1999. Gerrard was the Liberal Party leader before Bokhari took over.

9. Rossmere

New Democrat Erna Braun has held the seat since 2007. Historically, the seat swings back and forth between the PCs and the NDP. The seat was once held by former federal Conservative MP Vic Toews.

10. St. Norbert

St. Norbert was the second-tightest race in the last election, in 2011. The NDP's Dave Gaudreau won by 31 votes. Gaudreau recently cricitized Greg Selinger in a caucus meeting, saying the public didn't like him.

11. St. Vital

Former NDP cabinet minister Nancy Allan is not running again, leaving the seat more open to change. It was held by the PCs from 1990-99.

12. Southdale

NDP rebel cabinet minister Erin Selby, who was one of five to publicly challenge Selinger's leadership, resigned after her failed attempt to run federally. It was a tight race in 2011 and the seat was PC in 1999 and 2003.

13. St. James

The NDP's Deanne Crothers won in a tight race in 2011. Expect a challenge from the PCs' Scott Johnston.

14. St. Johns

Longtime cabinet minister Gord Mackintosh, who held the seat since 2003, didn't run this time. High-profile indigenous activist Nahanni Fontaine is running for the NDP. Liberal Noel Bernier is in tough, since the constituency has always been NDP.

15. Wolseley

The NDP's Rob Altemeyer has held the seat since 2003. The Green Party has come in second in the past three provincial elections. The Greens are optimistic candidate Dave Nickarz has a real shot at taking the party's first seat in Manitoba.

Watch election results live on CBC TV and radio at 8 p.m. and online on our Manitoba Votes page.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tories on offence, NDP defend as nasty Manitoba election campaign wraps


by Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press
Posted Apr 18, 2016 5:53 pm EDT
Last Updated Apr 18, 2016 at 6:47 pm EDT

WINNIPEG – A five-week-long, often-negative Manitoba election campaign drew to a close Monday with more signs that the Progressive Conservatives are set to leap from Opposition to government.

With voters set to cast ballots Tuesday, Tory Leader Brian Pallister played offence, travelling to the northern NDP stronghold constituencies of Keewatinook and The Pas. NDP Leader Greg Selinger spent time shoring up support in Selkirk, a seat his party has held for 26 years.

Opinion polls have shown a solid Tory lead throughout the campaign. The governing NDP has steadily trailed by 20 points or more.

Voters have not let Selinger off the hook for breaking an election promise in 2013 and raising the provincial sales tax, said Karine Levasseur, who teaches political science at the University of Manitoba.

“I think there was a deep-seated hope within the NDP that Manitobans would forgive him for increasing the PST if there was enough buy-in that … Greg Selinger is still the one person (people) can count on to ensure that health care is still going to operate the way it needs, that services are going to be delivered and they’re not going to be cut,” she said.

“It didn’t work at all.”

Kelly Saunders, an assistant professor at Brandon University, said the NDP didn’t help themselves by making a “really odd” decision to focus on Selinger in their campaign ads, given his low personal popularity.

Selinger, whose leadership barely survived a caucus revolt last year, showed no signs of worry Monday. In an interview in his St. Boniface constituency, he expressed no regrets about his party’s campaign.

“Sometimes we wish we could have been able to convey … and get more attention to the policy side of the discussion, but we’ve put out a solid program,” he said.

The Tories last held power in Manitoba in the 1990s under Gary Filmon. The New Democrats have been in government for 16 years.

The campaign took a negative turn last week, when Selinger called Pallister “homophobic” and suggested the Tory leader release personal financial information in case he had any undisclosed financial holdings.

Pallister, a former MP who owns a vacation home in Costa Rica, has been on the defensive in recent days over the amount of time he has spent there, and the NDP has continued to suggest he has been inconsistent on his holdings in the Central American country.

Pallister has called some of Selinger’s assertions “desperate lies” and a distraction from issues such as long health-care wait times.

The wild card has been the Liberal party, which held one legislature seat before the election was called, but which had been polling high as recently as December. The Liberals suffered a series of gaffes on the campaign trail and recent polls suggest they have dropped back to historical low levels.

Saunders doesn’t think the NDP’s attacks on the Tories will sway undecided voters, but could convince them to not show up.

Turnout at advance polls, which closed Saturday, was up 39 per cent from the last election. About 109,000 voters cast ballots early, according to Elections Manitoba.

“Those undecided voters that might have been close to making a decision, (may be) saying now, ‘This is ridiculous. We can’t trust any of them … so either we’re going to decline our ballot or we’re going to choose to stay home.'


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( one final poll confirms the ndp demise , only polling 13 % outside of Winnipeg , and pc's lead in Winnipeg 38% to 28 % ndp and considering the ndp have a core of support downtown those numbers are going to be difficult for the ndp to overcome in the marginal and swing ridings , one thing I do wonder about is 10% of people plan to vote green , only problem many won't have a candidate to vote for as green's only have around 30 candidates so where will those people go in ridings with no green candidate ? )

’Peggers go Tory in last poll before E-Day

Winnipeg Sun

First posted: Monday, April 18, 2016 01:38 PM CDT

insight april 15-17

Election Day is tomorrow, and one last poll is lining up with the others.

Insight Manitoba found 38% of Winnipeg voters are planning to vote for Brian Pallister's Tories.

Greg Selinger's NDP have 28%, Rana Bokhari's Liberals 12% and James Beddome's Greens 10% in the poll, conducted April 15-17.

Still, 10% of voters remain undecided.

Outside Winnipeg, the numbers are closer to the most recent Mainstreet/Postmedia poll: 57% plan to vote Tory, 13% NDP, 10% Green and 6% Liberal, with 12% undecided.

Insight surveyed 2,148 Manitobans (1,623 Winnipeggers) using IVR for a poll with a margin of error +/- 2.43%, 19 times out of 20.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Manitoba election day: 5 things to watch

Manitobans could be in for a historic night of change if months of polling prove accurate

By Chris Glover, CBC News Posted: Apr 19, 2016 3:00 AM CT| Last Updated: Apr 19, 2016 5:33 AM CT

Voters in Manitoba head to the polls today from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

As Manitobans head to the polls today, here are five things to watch out for as the results roll in tonight:

1. Strength of Tory blue wave

If months of polling prove accurate, Manitobans could be in for a historic change, depending on the force of the Progressive Conservative surge across the province. In the last days of the 2016 election campaign, the Tories took resources out of traditional battleground constituencies in the south and west of Winnipeg, and invested them in places where previously they haven't stood a chance.

For the last day of campaigning, PC Leader Brian Pallister left the city altogether. Even in its bad times, the NDP has been able to hold support in the North. But looking for historic gains, Pallister spent Monday in The Pas, wooing the NDP's most loyal constituents.

If the blue wave that's been talked about for the past couple of weeks does not develop, that would be a major disappointment for a PC campaign that has been better organized than we've seen for decades.

2. Orange crushed?

While Pallister has set his sights on the North, that's not the only traditional NDP safe zone that could perhaps be a battleground this time. The east end of Winnipeg, including Concordia and Transcona, has been secure for the NDP for 20 or 30 years, but this time the NDP and the PCs are battling it out. If the New Democrats lose these seats, it will speak to the size of a PC government.
■How to vote on election day in Manitoba
■Manitoba Votes 2016: Live results dashboard

Also, even if they don't switch hands, watch for erosion of NDP support in inner city and North End constituencies such as Point Douglas, St. Johns and Burrows. If Burrows is in jeopardy for the NDP, it's not because of the PCs, but because of Liberal rookie Cindy Lamoureux.
■Manitoba election: Undecided? Binge-watch these debate videos
■12 candidates to watch on election night in Manitoba
■Manitoba election: 15 constituencies to watch
■Voting for 'none of the above' an option in Manitoba Elections

Led by her father, Winnipeg North MP Kevin Lamoureux, she could be the silver lining in the Liberals' election night story. All this being said, the NDP's get-the-vote-out campaign is sophisticated and will be in overdrive Tuesday, attempting to keep the NDP orange from being crushed.

3. NDP shutout in rural Manitoba?

To say the NDP is nervous about losing its rural constituencies would be an understatement. Not only is the party concerned about the effect of a Tory blue wave, but the dynamics in a number of rural constituencies are not in the NDP's favour.

New Democrat Ron Lemieux has held the area that is now Dawson Trail since 1999. Originally he committed to run for a fifth term, but then he quit the race. Now a rookie New Democrat is running in his place. Dauphin and Gimli are also running without an NDP incumbent, and in Flin Flon, the New Democrat who won in 2011, Clarence Pettersen, is now running as an independent, after failing to win the party nomination.

The NDP stronghold of Brandon East is in play, even though it hasn't gone Tory blue since it was created nearly 50 years ago. If the NDP loses that seat, it would be a sign of a thoroughly bad night throughout the province for the NDP and could speak to the scale of an NDP defeat.

4. Will party leaders be elected?

If PC Leader Brian Pallister loses his seat in Fort Whyte, that would be a political bombshell. The PCs have held it firmly since it was created for the 1999 election, and throughout this campaign Pallister has been applauded by his base for promising to lower taxes.

The 2016 election has been dubbed by some as a referendum on NDP Leader Greg Selinger and the way he brought in the one-percentage-point increase in the provincial sales tax. In his St. Boniface constituency, however, a loss would be a major story line of the night. In 2011, Selinger won his seat by the second widest margin in the province (second only to the PCs' Kelvin Goertzen in Steinbach).

A win for Green Party Leader James Beddome would be historic (a Green has never won in Manitoba before), and it would also be a surprise. The NDP incumbent James Allum and the rookie PC Jeanette Montufar are both considered strong contenders for the Fort Garry-Riverview seat.

Finally, Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari is expected to be in a tight race for her seat in Fort Rouge. The rookie Liberal leader is up against two other rookies Tuesday night. Former broadcaster Wab Kinew for the New Democrats and Winnipeg Regional Health Authority manager Audrey Gordon for the PCs will try to block Bokhari from winning a seat in the legislature. If she is shut out, that will have major implications for her future within the party.

5. Voter turnout

Advance voting for the 2016 election is up nearly 40 per cent from 2011. Watch to see if that trend continues for the general voter turnout. All of the major political parties in Manitoba, including, oddly enough, the NDP, which has been in power for 16 years, have been talking about change. If people vote in increased numbers it could be because they are trying to be part of that change or are trying to stop that change from becoming reality. If voter turnout is low, it will signal to the parties that even if they did well, something about their message wasn't getting through to the voters.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

City of Brandon vote split down the middle

Michelle Gerwing
Michelle Gerwing, Videojournalist

Published Monday, April 18, 2016 7:22PM CST
Last Updated Monday, April 18, 2016 7:24PM CST

Brandon East could see longtime NDP stronghold give.

The city of Brandon is split right down the middle using 18th Street as a political boundary.

On one side, Brandon West, a seat held firmly by the Progressive Conservatives.

On one side, Brandon West, a seat held firmly by the Progressive Conservatives. On the other, Brandon East a seat held by the NDP since the constituencies creation in 1969.

But Kelly Saunders, Brandon University political science professor, says the winds of change could be blowing in for Brandon East.

"To win a riding that has only been NDP since 1969, is you know, is amazing. I mean, it would be an amazing coup for the conservatives to win this riding," she said.

On Monday, Manitoba's election eve, all three Brandon East candidates were out in the constituency reminding residents to vote.

NDP incumbent Drew Caldwell was sticking flyers to people's doors and also calling out his closest rival PC candidate Len Isleifson.

"There's never been an election in my lifetime where somebody seeking to represent Brandon isn't making a single commitment to a single project in Brandon," said Caldwell.

A school for Brandon's growing south is a commitment both Caldwell's NDPs and Vanessa Hamilton's Liberals have pledged to do if elected Tuesday.

"Families do want their kids to go to school in their own neighbourhoods so it is a hot issue this election," said Hamilton.

Isleifson says he supports the idea of a new school, but the PCs need more details before moving forward.

"Not just how much it's going to cost. But what size of school do we need what type of educational opportunities should we have for more teachers," said Isleifson.

He added what he's been hearing at the doors is residents need a change in leadership.

While last minute canvassing happened all over the city Monday, inside a Brandon coffee shop local business owner Will Goodon got a lunchtime meeting in, but he also talked politics.

"It's a fun sport to watch almost."

He's watching Brandon East with a close eye and hopes the rest of Manitoba is too.

"If it looks like it's going to change than that means there's a big change happening right across the province."


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ndp premier selinger has been defeated , brian pallister has won a majority for the Manitoba pc's more analysis to come tomorrow

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCs win historic majority
With 41 seats, Tories form biggest government caucus ever

By Joyanne Pursaga, Winnipeg Sun
First posted: Tuesday, April 19, 2016 12:58 PM EDT | Updated: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 01:13 AM EDT

Meet the premier-designate
Name: Brian Pallister
Age: 61
Family: Married his wife Esther in 1989. The couple have two daughters, Quinn and Shawn.
Education: Graduated high school at Portage Collegiate, obtained degrees in Arts and Education from Brandon University.
Background: Grew up on a small, third-generation family farm just outside Portage la Prairie. Worked as a high school teacher before starting the company that grew into Pallister Financial.
Fun facts: Played basketball for Brandon University Bobcats, where a Pallister Women’s Athletic Award is now given out. Has biked the Trans-Canada trail across Manitoba.
Political experience: Elected as MLA for Portage la Prairie in 1992. Re-elected three years later, he served as Minister of Government Services. Elected as MP for Portage-Lisgar in 2000 where he served eight years. After a four-year break from politics, Pallister became leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives in 2012.

Manitoba has been painted blue.

The Progressive Conservatives scored a landslide victory Tuesday night and were on track to possibly tie or even break the record for the most seats claimed by a single party. As of 11 p.m., the Tories were elected or leading in 41 of 57 seats, while the NDP were on track to claim just 13.

Before Tuesday, the most seats the Tories had claimed in a Manitoba election was 36 back in 1962. The most seats any party claimed in one election was 40, which the Liberals managed in 1915.

“The only thing better than tonight in Manitoba is tomorrow,” said Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister, the premier-elect. “I am tremendously humbled by what has happened here.”

Pallister was conciliatory to his competitor, NDP leader Greg Selinger, noting a failed attempt to replace him as leader from within his own caucus likely caused “a tremendous amount of hurt.” The sweeping Tory victory included a few notable South Winnipeg ridings stolen back from the NDP, including Southdale, Riel and Seine River.

Pallister wouldn't commit to gender parity in his cabinet, citing too few experienced MLAs.

Southdale winner Andrew Smith said he was “ecstatic” with the results.

“They wanted change and they wanted change for the better,” Smith said of voters. “After 16 some-odd years of the same government, it’s just time for a change.”

The sweeping victory included seats no one thought the Tories could win even a few months ago, including the Thompson seat of Steve Ashton, who has served as an NDP MLA since 1981.

The results back up what pollsters consistently predicted throughout the campaign, with Mainstreet Research predicting a PC “mega-majority” just a few days before the vote.

It’s a sizable shift. Before this election, the NDP won four consecutive majority governments since 1999. In 2011, the NDP won 37 seats, the PCs claimed 19, and the Liberals earned just one.

NDP leader Greg Selinger announced he’ll resign during his concession speech.

“We’ll do a thorough analysis of what we feel we did right, what we feel we did wrong. Tonight is really the night for me to honour the people who participated, honour the people that put their careers on the line ... I want to show them that they deserve to be appreciated,” said Selinger.

The Liberals were elected in three seats.

Leader Rana Bokhari said the party did what it could with few resources.

“We had a tough game. We were running with zero dollars, a fraction of the resources with a lot of negativity. But we had fantastic candidates, we had fantastic volunteers. We did what we could with what we had and that’s just it,” said Bokhari.

NDP support plummeted after the party raised the provincial sales tax from 7% to 8% in 2013, after promising not to do so in the previous election. The process also skipped a previously required referendum to raise the levy.

Following the PST backlash, the Pallister PCs repeatedly promised to reverse the hike, if elected.

On Tuesday, some left-leaning voters confirmed the PST decision did turn them away from the NDP, while others felt turned off by the whole political campaign.

“I think it’s a toss-up. I’m kind of sick of the whole bashing of the other parties and everything. You haven’t really heard anything positive out there about what we want to do or what they want to do. It’s all been negative, so I think that’s been a big distraction this year,” said Doug Arnold, 35, a voter in Kildonan, where longtime NDP incumbent Dave Chomiak was defeated.

And despite attack ads to the contrary, political experts believe even this strong majority won’t lead Pallister’s government to an extreme and sudden shift in the Manitoba government.

“In some ways, the NDP campaign was about trying to create suspicions and fear in the voters’ minds that Pallister will go on an ideological free-for-all and lead a strong-C Conservative government that’s all about cutting parts of government off and setting them adrift,” said Paul Thomas, a University of Manitoba political scientist. “That’s an extreme scenario that’s not likely to happen.”

Thomas said Pallister is a “political realist,” who instead is likely to alter government in moderate ways to help his team stay in power.

“Pallister knows the history of the party and he doesn’t want to be a one-term premier, so I don’t think he wants to go on a slash-and-burn campaign, especially in the early stages of his term.”

Christopher Adams, a Manitoba political author, said much of the vote could likely be credited to voters casting ballots against the NDP.

“I think the ballot question was ‘Should the NDP be re-elected for a fifth majority victory?” said Adams. “Meanwhile, the NDP has been quite effectively painted with broken promises. The PCs have hammered at that very effectively.”

Election by the numbers:

•PC 41
•NDP 13
•Liberal: 3

Vote percentage:
•PC 53.4%
•NDP 25.4%
•Lib 14.3%
•Green 5.1%
•Other 1.7%
•Declined: 0.9%
•Voter turnout: 57.47% (12:31 a.m.)

1.Cindy Lamoureux (LIB) Burrows
2.Len J. Isleifson (PC) Brandon East
3.Brad Michaleski (PC) Dauphin
4.Bob Lagasse (PC) Dawson Trail
5.Sarah Guillemard (PC) Fort Richmond
6.Wab Kinew (NDP) Fort Rouge
7.Tom Lindsey (NDP) Flin Flon
8.Jeff Wharton (PC) Gimli
9.Derek Johnson (PC) Interlake
10.Judy Klassen (Lib) Keewatinook
11.Nic Curry (PC) Kildonan
12.Scott Fielding (PC) Kirkfield Park
13.James Teitsma (PC) Radisson
14.Andrew Micklefield (PC) Rossmere
15.Janice Morley-Lecomte (PC) Seine River
16.Alan Lagimodiere (PC) Selkirk
17.Andrew Smith (PC) Southdale
18.Scott Johnston (PC) St. James
19.Nahanni Fontaine (NDP) St. Johns
20.John Reyes (PC) St. Norbert
21.Colleeen Mayer (PC) St. Vital
22.Rick Wowchuck (PC) Swan River
23.Kelly Bindle (PC) Thompson
24.Blair Yakimoski (PC) Transcona

Recount likely:
•Kaur Sidhu (PC) The Maples* (two-vote lead at press time)
•Wolseley (incumbent Rob Altemeyer had 116-vote lead over Green David Nickarz, with count to resume Wednesday morning)

•Tom Nevakshonoff, Water minister, defeated in Interlake by Derek Johnson (PC).
•Eric Robinson, Aboriginal minister, elected in Kewatinook.
•Dave Chomiak, Resource minister, defeated in Kildonan by Nic Curry (PC).
•Sharon Blady, Health minister, defeated in Kirkfield Park by Scott Fielding (PC).
•Kerri Irvin-Ross, Family services minister, trailing in Fort Richmond; behind Sarah Guillemard (PC).
•Drew Caldwell, Municipal minister, defeated in Brandon East by Len J. IsLeifson (PC).
•Melanie Wight, Child-Youth minister, defeated in Burrows by Cindy Lamoureux (LIB), daughter of MP Kevin Lamoureux.
•Deanne Crothers, Healthy living minister, defeated in St. James by Scott Johnston (PC), school division board member.
•Steve Ashton, Transport minister, defeated in Thompson by Kelly Bindle (PC).
•Greg Dewar, Finance minister, defeated in Selkirk by Alan Lagimodiere (PC).

Tories' campaign in review:

The good: The Tories stood out as the only party focused on cutting government spending and reversing the provincial sales tax, from 8% back to 7%, within the first term in office. So for voters looking for a new fiscal approach, they offer a clear option. Leader Brian Pallister also avoided making any major campaign gaffes.

The bad: Pallister noted on the first official day of the campaign that "there are no sacred cows" to be protected from potential cost-cutting, a quote that fit nicely within NDP attack ads against him. Near the end of the campaign, Pallister also had difficulties explaining the size of his Costa Rican vacation home and property and was later accused of lying because of it.

The ugly: Pallister was accused by NDP leader Greg Selinger of being homophobic, wanting to slash all government services and otherwise threatening everything from cancer drug coverage to teachers' jobs. But Pallister responded to each attack relatively well and launched effective ads to counter the image of him "running with scissors."


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( although the liberals somehow managed to gain 2 seats and % of the vote not as low as some polls predicted , the 3 seats was a lot less that what had been predicted earlier and after trudeau swept nearly all of Winnipeg in October , its clear there were some benefits from the federal liberals as a daughter of a liberal mp kevin lamoureux got elected in Winnipeg and remote northen riding of kewatinook somehow went liberal , no doubt an increase in first nations vote for the liberals there due to all the promises being made to them by liberals but compared to federal results didn't do nearly as well and a lot less votes cast liberal provincially )

Liberals triple seat count
Bokhari declines to answer whether she'll stay on as leader

By Jim Bender, Winnipeg Sun
First posted: Tuesday, April 19, 2016 08:57 PM CDT | Updated: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 12:02 AM CDT

Story Highlights
The Liberal campaign, in a nutshell:

The Liberals started the campaign on a high note after polls showed support north of 20%. They were able to attract several well-known candidates, including restauranteur Noel Bernier, former journalist Peter Chura, Cindy Lamoureux (Kevin’s daughter), and Althea Guiboche, the bannock lady. A plan to privatize liquor sales also drew attention.

The campaign was beset by stumble after stumble, including policies to cut PST on haircuts over $50 and go as far as setting up a Crown corporation to get a major grocer downtown. Bokhari had difficulty articulating these ideas in press conferences and at the televised leaders’ debate.

When the party released its costed election platform, an entire year was just ... missing. Also missing: Bokhari’s 2014 tax return, which she wasn’t sure if she had filed. Oh, and six candidates. And then, Liberal candidate Billy Moore suggested Manitoba should close some hospitals — later saying he was only trying to grab attention. He did.

A provincial campaign that started with so much promise ended in personal disaster for Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari.

Although Bokhari failed to earn a seat, finishing third in her Fort Rouge riding, her party tripled the number of seats it won in Tuesday’s election with three.

“Yeah, it was a tough game,” Bokhari said at the Liberal headquarters at the ALT Hotel. “We started from nothing and we grew, that’s for sure. But it’s definitely difficult.

“We were running with zero dollars, a fraction of the resources (of other parties) with a lot of negativity. But we had fantastic candidates, we had fantastic volunteers. We did what we could with what we had, and that’s just it.”

Cindy Lamoureux in Burrows and Judy Klassen in Kewatinook added to the Liberals’ seat count (both defeating NDP cabinet ministers), while incumbent Jon Gerrard kept his seat.

Bokhari was asked if she wanted to stay on as leader.

“Yeah, we’re going to continue working, we’re going to do what we can,” she replied. “We all knew this was gonna be tough. Nobody walked into it, I’ve been at it for two years and it’s never been an easy go.”

But Bokhari later refused to confirm that she does indeed plan to stay on as leader.

“Not a conversation to have today,” she responded at the end of her scrum. “I want to go celebrate with my candidates and my volunteers.”

Gerrard, who stepped down as head of the party before Bokhari took over, has no desire to return as leader — calling his victory “bittersweet” without Bokhari.

Asked if Bokhari will have to step down, Gerrard also hedged.

“I think what we should be doing is look at what Rana was able to accomplish and look at that in a positive light, and in recruiting a lot of candidates who worked very hard and doing a lot of things right even though we may not have succeeded to the extent that we wanted,” he said. “Let’s look at her position as a new leader and what she accomplished that was positive at this point.

“She built a team and an organization and, for her first time as a leader, I think she built elements with (the) platform, which I campaigned on in River Heights and that was part of my success.”

A Lamoureux back at the Legislature

Like father, like daughter.

Liberal candidate Cindy Lamoureux surprised NDP incumbent Melanie Wight in Burrows in Tuesday’s provincial election.

“It feels kind of surreal right now,” Lamoureux said from her campaign office. “It’s amazing, absolutely amazing. Everybody’s grabbing me, taking my picture.”

Liberal MP Kevin Lamoureux is her father and was working on CBC’s election broadcast Tuesday night. He was fighting back tears on camera when his daughter was declared a winner.

“Certainly, that helped me with the name connection,” Cindy said, of her dad. “When he was in town, he would help me knocking on doors. People wanted to know if I was his wife, or his sister.

“But once I got in the door, I felt I connected with people and the people were saying they wanted a change, and I’m so grateful to the people in Burrows. I won’t let them down.”

Campaigning was an eye-opener.

“I remember saying I wanted to be a politician before I really understood what it meant,” she said. “I was door-knocking for seven hours a day ... it sounds exhausting but that was me at my absolute best.”

Lamoureux plans to focus on her constituency.

“I want to bring back the youth justice centres,” she said. “We used to have them here in the North End ... and they were removed. I’ve looked into it and there’s no real answers. And I think it’s crucial, crime is going higher and higher.”

Lamoureux, 24, also expressed her support for Liberal leader Rana Bokhari, despite the fact she failed to win a seat.

“I think Rana should be very proud,” she said. “She ran a clean campaign, and after knocking on doors, I know that wasn’t easy in this campaign.

“I’m proud of Rana. I hope she stays involved.”


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a close finish for the green's in wolseley but it looks like it stayed ndp , also % of the vote around 5% province wide , no doubt green's wish they had run more candidates and could of came closer to 10% province wide some polls predicted )

Greens come close in Wolseley

By Glen Dawkins, Winnipeg Sun
First posted: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 12:17 AM CDT | Updated: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 02:17 AM CDT

After a seesaw battle in Wolseley that went back and forth all night, the Green Party will have to wait until Wednesday to find out if they've made history by electing their first MLA in Manitoba.

While an official vote tally was expected later Wednesday morning, with 53 of 53 polls reporting at 2 a.m it appeared incumbent Rob Altemeyer held on with a 384-vote lead over the Green Party's David Nickarz.

"It's just too close to call right now," said Green Party leader James Beddome at press time, on hand to lend his support at Nickarz's Wolseley campaign headquarters. "We only have 47 out of 53 polls counting on Elections Manitoba's unofficial website and it's within a very close range where there a number of ballots which were argued to be excluded or included and a number of issues that have to be looked at."

Even without an electoral breakthrough, Beddome was over the moon with the Green Party's showing, noting several candidates placed second or third.

"This is a nail-biter," said Beddome, who placed third in Fort Garry-Riverview. "I really hope we're going to see a first in Wolseley and we're going to see a Green MLA in the legislature."

Nickarz took the opportunity to thank his volunteers for the job that they did.

"Even though the vote count is not in, I'm really proud of my team," he said. "They've done an amazing job. There's 40 people that have helped me on this campaign and they've really gotten me to a place where no other Green has before in this province."

The Green Party has finished second in the Wolseley constituency in the last three provincial elections.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( election was clearly a disaster for the ndp , only winning ridings in urban Winnipeg and 2 northern seats , lost all ridings they had in rural Manitoba or smaller cities like Brandon and Selkirk . also % of the vote down and many cabinet ministers lost , selinger has also resigned and another ndp leadership race needed )

Manitoba election: Greg Selinger resigns as NDP leader after big loss to PCs

NDP fails to secure 5th consecutive term in office

By Bryce Hoye, CBC News Posted: Apr 19, 2016 8:09 PM CT| Last Updated: Apr 20, 2016 12:24 AM CT

Greg Selinger has resigned as leader of the NDP, as the party's nearly 17-year stretch in government came to an end Tuesday night.

"In a democracy, friends, the people are always right, the collective wisdom of Manitobans has to be respected," he told a crowd of supporters at the RBC Convention Centre. "Tonight as we examine the results ... I have offered my resignation."​

Selinger said his resignation takes effect immediately and he has asked the party to appoint an interim leader. The party lost on the night, but Selinger was re-elected as MLA for St. Boniface — a position he has held since 1999.

Selinger won St. Boniface by more than 1,000 votes (over 41 per cent of the vote), compared to his next closest competitor in PC candidate Mamadou Ka.

LIVE ELECTION RESULTS: PC majority government in Manitoba, CBC News projects

The NDP haven't held fewer than 32 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba since 1999. The New Democrats were elected in 14 constituencies on Tuesday, compared to the Tories' 40 and three for the Liberals.

The New Democrats' attempt to secure an unprecedented fifth term in government was foiled by Brian Pallister and the PCs, whose months-long surge in opinion polls foreshadowed the results on election day.

Greg Selinger resigns
Greg Selinger announces his resignation as leader of the NDP Tuesday at the RBC Convention Centre in Winnipeg. The NDP lost to Brian Pallister and the Progressive Conservatives. (CBC)

Early on, the PC campaign targeted Selinger as an untrustworthy leader with a record of "broken promises," referring to the provincial sales tax hike in 2013. Selinger increased the PST from seven to eight per cent that year after publicly stating in 2011 that he wouldn't.
■ANALYSIS | How Manitoba's governing NDP split open and where it goes from here
■Bruised Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger says he can be trusted

"On the eve of the [2011] election, [Selinger] was at 52 per cent approval rating," political scientist Paul Thomas said the day before results were in. "Now he's in the low teens."

Pallister pointed at turmoil within the NDP in the aftermath of the tax hike, including the party's 2015 leadership race, as indicators the NDP is divided and unfit to govern under Selinger.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Manitoba NDP was doomed the moment that Theresa Oswald and the rest of the gang of five opted for the palace coup against Greg Selinger and made the NDP look like a bunch of power hungry disconnected from reality opportunists.

Its one thing to try and seize power when you are successful;
Its entirely another thing when you fail.

With Greg Selinger now stepping aside the consensus within the NDP seems to be to move to the left which is about as ideal if a situation as the PC's could hope for.

The success of the Manitoba NDP was due to Gary Doer basically being about as close to the center as you could be while still remaining a New Democrat.

Moving away from Doers approach will simply erode the brand;
Heck had the Liberals run even a remotely professional campaign they would be the official opposition right now;

This leaves the Alberta NDP as the last remaining NDP Government in Canada.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The Manitoba NDP was doomed the moment that Theresa Oswald and the rest of the gang of five opted for the palace coup against Greg Selinger and made the NDP look like a bunch of power hungry disconnected from reality opportunists.

Its one thing to try and seize power when you are successful;
Its entirely another thing when you fail.

With Greg Selinger now stepping aside the consensus within the NDP seems to be to move to the left which is about as ideal if a situation as the PC's could hope for.

The success of the Manitoba NDP was due to Gary Doer basically being about as close to the center as you could be while still remaining a New Democrat.

Moving away from Doers approach will simply erode the brand;
Heck had the Liberals run even a remotely professional campaign they would be the official opposition right now;

This leaves the Alberta NDP as the last remaining NDP Government in Canada.

I think the Manitoba ndp will soon realise it was easier to lose an election than win one . its not going to be an easy path back to where they were and without a super popular centrist leader like Gary Doer might be in opposition for a while .

the pc majority was massive , they won every rural and small city riding in the 5 federal tory ridings in Manitoba , but also won the city of Thompson in a surprise upset . and in Winnipeg won most of the suburban ridings around city that would be part of federal ridings of Kilodan st Paul , Charleswood St James , Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface . the only area they didn't win in Winnipeg was urban areas downtown in Winnipeg centre and winnipeg north ridings and some ndp strongholds just north of the downtown in Elmwood transcona riding .

I don't think some of these suburban ridings are as naturally ndp as they used to be and becoming more like a typical suburban riding . and will be harder for ndp to win back in the future . and to try and win back the rural areas could prove impossible if Saskatchewan is any indication of how tough it can be to win back the rural vote

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree the win in the Urban / Suburban ridings is huge;

However they usually tend to be bellweather, the wins which really surprised me was the ridings in the middle of the Province which were NDP even in the Filmore wins of 1988, 1990, and 1995 which went PC.

Swan River had been NDP since 1990 and the PCs won it on Tuesday with more than 50% of the popular vote.

Dauphin had been an NDP riding since 1981 and the PCs nearly had 3x the votes of the NDP who finished second.

Heck Brandon East had been an NDP riding since 1969 and Len Isleifson won it with more than 50% of the popular vote.

The PCs basically eroded away the bedrock of NDP support, the ridings that always kept them in the 20s in terms of seats even during the 1990s and did so in a huge manner.
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Manitoba Provincial election to be held April 19

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