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Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:30 am    Post subject: Next Conservative Leader Reply with quote

After the Conservatives crushing defeat party president John Walsh announced that Stephen Harper would be resigning. The new caucus is expected to appoint an interim leader soon while the party works out the timing for a leadership convention.

I'm hoping the party waits a little while before deciding on a permanent replacement. The Liberals went nearly two years without a permanent leader after the 2011 election, while I think that's a bit too long I'd like to see the next leader chosen in 12-18 months. It'll give the party a period of time to reflect and could allow for potential candidates who are not as well known at the moment to raise their profiles.

One risk with waiting too long to decide a permanent leader is that the interim leader ends up with a lot of responsibility. Bob Rae was an excellent politician and was able to keep Liberals relevant as interim leader. On the other hand, Nycole Turmel struggled as Leader of the Opposition following the death of Jack Layton and the party saw their numbers dip. Had she been in the position for a longer period of time - and without an active leadership race - it may have made things worse for the NDP. So the party really needs to take that into consideration.

Rob Nicholson, Diane Finlay and Denis Lebel are three names I could see taking over as interim leader. All have been senior ministers and I don't their either of them is very likely to run for the permanent leadership. I don't believe Nicholson speaks French so that should rule him out. With the current volatility in Quebec I think Lebel could be a wise choice for interim leader.

As for the permanent leadership there are many names out there. Brad Wall could put up a good bid but when he was asked today and ruled it out. Who else?
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope they don't pick a new leader for a while , the party needs to figure out where things went wrong not only during this campaign but since they won re-election in 2011 with a majority . clearly something went wrong with this government after they won the majority in 2011 , maybe they got too comfortable and though they'd be in power for much longer . I don't think it was just trudeau's arrival that soured things it seems to me something more deeper might of been in play here .

I don't really have any idea who should be the intern leader , but someone with some experience and profile in Ottawa , maybe a former cabinet minister or longtime mp.
the party needs some time to get over this election and think about things , its also likely new issues will emerge once the new liberal government arrives . personally I hope we don't pick a new leader until at least late into 2016
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
I hope they don't pick a new leader for a while , the party needs to figure out where things went wrong not only during this campaign but since they won re-election in 2011 with a majority . clearly something went wrong with this government after they won the majority in 2011 , maybe they got too comfortable and though they'd be in power for much longer . I don't think it was just trudeau's arrival that soured things it seems to me something more deeper might of been in play here .

I don't really have any idea who should be the intern leader , but someone with some experience and profile in Ottawa , maybe a former cabinet minister or longtime mp.
the party needs some time to get over this election and think about things , its also likely new issues will emerge once the new liberal government arrives . personally I hope we don't pick a new leader until at least late into 2016


I'm thinking maybe late 2016 or early 2017. And maybe have a long campaign, because you know how good long campaigns are! I think back to how Nathan Cullen came out of almost nowhere in 2011/2012 and ended up becoming a strong contender due to his personality, debate performances, and his ideas. A quick campaign will give the advantage to more established candidates and while I'm not opposed to one of them winning I'd like to see lesser knowns be given the opportunity to do well.

One person I've always liked and I think would resonate with a lot of people - particularly outside the party - is Michael Chong. Obviously there's been issues with him and Harper so I don't know how well Harper loyalists would view him.
centrifugal





Joined: 25 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harper left some big shoes to fill. Basically anyone that takes his place is going to look weak by comparison. I think the conservatives are going to need some fall guys like the Liberals had with Dion and Ignatieff to absorb some of that public hate. Unless Trudeau seriously screws up he's probably going to win again in the next election. Someone is probably going to have to fall on a sword for the parties benefit.

As it stands right now the best person in the party to replace Harper is Harper. I think he should see this result as a breath of fresh air and an opportunity to open up to the press, and reflect on where he went wrong. He's got less reason to censor himself now, so he should be speaking his mind. People will either like him for who he is or they won't.

I'm not saying he will or even should return, but the option should be left open in case of another Liberal defeat in 2019.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big shoes to fill? Harper may have been a strong leader when it came to many issues but he's widely unpopular now. People have been ready for a change in Conservative leader for a while so I don't think many will consider his shoes big to fill.

And if Harper's the best person to replace Harper that's his own fault. Harper has not been able to bring talent into the party. James Moore, Peter MacKay, Shelly Glover, Jim Flaherty, John Baird are all gone and Harper wasn't able to attract people to replace them. Same issue Danny Williams had in Newfoundland and Labrador. Harper, like Williams, was a controlling force and never planned for life after them.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

centrifugal wrote:
Harper left some big shoes to fill. Basically anyone that takes his place is going to look weak by comparison. I think the conservatives are going to need some fall guys like the Liberals had with Dion and Ignatieff to absorb some of that public hate. Unless Trudeau seriously screws up he's probably going to win again in the next election. Someone is probably going to have to fall on a sword for the parties benefit.

As it stands right now the best person in the party to replace Harper is Harper. I think he should see this result as a breath of fresh air and an opportunity to open up to the press, and reflect on where he went wrong. He's got less reason to censor himself now, so he should be speaking his mind. People will either like him for who he is or they won't.

I'm not saying he will or even should return, but the option should be left open in case of another Liberal defeat in 2019.


I can't really see harper coming back , true he lost the 2004 election than came back to win 2006 election but that was years ago and he's mostly ran out of political capital by now . it seems like his political career is pretty much over although he plans to stick around as an mp for the time being .
I'm not sure what kind of leader the party needs , the leadership issue is also just part of the eventually rebuild , policy is also in need of repair , I'm sure the policy the party tried to run on or lack of it played a role in its defeat . harper didn't have a lot of interesting or exciting policy to get base excited or campaign on this election
centrifugal





Joined: 25 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

I can't really see harper coming back , true he lost the 2004 election than came back to win 2006 election but that was years ago and he's mostly ran out of political capital by now . it seems like his political career is pretty much over although he plans to stick around as an mp for the time being .
I'm not sure what kind of leader the party needs , the leadership issue is also just part of the eventually rebuild , policy is also in need of repair , I'm sure the policy the party tried to run on or lack of it played a role in its defeat . harper didn't have a lot of interesting or exciting policy to get base excited or campaign on this election



Yeah I don't disagree, I'm just saying if he plans to stick around as an MP he should work on his popularity. Anything can happen in 4 years. He will have been the last conservative PM, it's important he improves public opinion whether he forms a government or not. He's got to start showing up for interviews, and maybe have someone write a biography. It would be nice to get a glance through the iron curtain. Even if that is an exaggeration, that is the perspective a lot of people have.

Anyway, this discussion is a little early. I have no idea if it is even possible to find someone as electable as Trudeau and as tactical as Harper.
IanM





Joined: 28 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

I can't really see harper coming back , true he lost the 2004 election than came back to win 2006 election but that was years ago and he's mostly ran out of political capital by now . it seems like his political career is pretty much over although he plans to stick around as an mp for the time being .
I'm not sure what kind of leader the party needs , the leadership issue is also just part of the eventually rebuild , policy is also in need of repair , I'm sure the policy the party tried to run on or lack of it played a role in its defeat . harper didn't have a lot of interesting or exciting policy to get base excited or campaign on this election


Totally agree with this. However, pocketbook issues help a lot. I hope he stays a MP for at least the rest of the term. The big thing is, that eventually he would have to step aside as leader. I think he should run out his term, and either say he will run again in 2019, or leave politics and be a party elder. I don't think he is enamoured with the great money of the private sector.....
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harper will be gone as MP before the party chooses a permanent successor. I also doubt you'll see him make many appearances in the House of Commons.
IanM





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its too bad really....I think he could be a good force in the house of commons, at least as "someone to keep the government to account". Keeps him busy, and frees up leadership contenders.....
centrifugal





Joined: 25 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Harper will be gone as MP before the party chooses a permanent successor. I also doubt you'll see him make many appearances in the House of Commons.


You think so? For some reason I just don't see him as the type to retire.

It's really too bad, I doubt we will see another Prime Minister like him for a long time. He had a difference of opinion with me for sure, so I really couldn't support him for another term. But I got a lot of respect for him. Whether I vote Conservative in 2019 or not, I will guarantee I won't be voting Liberal(Or NDP/Green). I got my protest vote in, and for some reason I actually feel a bit guilty about it now. I still think it was the right decision though.

I'd like to see a more libertarian leaning leader, although I am probably in the minority. Basically someone who is in favor of legalizing marijuana, against the gun registry and will end all foreign aid.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A former Prime Minister - who lost to a Trudeau - is not sticking around to question the new government during Question Period. I highly doubt a new leader will want him around looking over their shoulder.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Harper will be gone as MP before the party chooses a permanent successor. I also doubt you'll see him make many appearances in the House of Commons.


I suspect he will stay on till a new leader is selected and then step down so that the new leader if not already in Parliament can run in his very safe riding.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
A former Prime Minister - who lost to a Trudeau - is not sticking around to question the new government during Question Period. I highly doubt a new leader will want him around looking over their shoulder.


I don't suspect he will stick around beyond new leader selection;
He is a former Prime Minister there are millions of dollars in simply board of directors opportunities for him to enjoy after nearly two decade of being in the public sector.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The names I am seeing commonly thrown around:

Within Parliament:
Jason Kenney
Tony Clement
Maxime Bernier
Gerard Deltell (Surprisingly)
James Moore
Lisa Raitt

From outside of Parliament:
Jean Charest
Bernard Lord
Peter MacKay

With of course Brad Wall already making it clear he will not run.
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