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Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is to be made of the block voting (signing up to vote yet not being a Con supporter) from the dairy farmers in Ont and Que?

Is there any validity to the issue? It appears that way from the numbers being Bernier lost his riding and practically no one knew Scheer?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toronto Centre wrote:
What is to be made of the block voting (signing up to vote yet not being a Con supporter) from the dairy farmers in Ont and Que?

Is there any validity to the issue? It appears that way from the numbers being Bernier lost his riding and practically no one knew Scheer?


I didn't think the party had released the riding by riding breakdown (If anyone has it I would love to see it);

Are they implying he lost his riding from the start or by the time we got the final round?
Because it appears he came out of round one with 40% of the points from the Quebec.
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:


I didn't think the party had released the riding by riding breakdown (If anyone has it I would love to see it);

Are they implying he lost his riding from the start or by the time we got the final round?
Because it appears he came out of round one with 40% of the points from the Quebec.

The way I read it this morning (Tor Star-cant find it now) is it would be pretty near impoosible for Bernier to have lost in his own riding due to his popularity except as respects his stand on the supply chain for dairy producers.
They had a breakdown of numbers but I am unsure if it was riding by riding (they showed a few for sure.

The best I can offer is ......
https://www.realagriculture.com/2017/05/dairy-farmers-made-difference-in-scheers-surprise-win-over-bernier/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.4135484

http://www.producer.com/2017/0.....eadership/

Damn, wish I could find the original story but alas I cannot.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toronto Centre wrote:
cosmostein wrote:


I didn't think the party had released the riding by riding breakdown (If anyone has it I would love to see it);

Are they implying he lost his riding from the start or by the time we got the final round?
Because it appears he came out of round one with 40% of the points from the Quebec.

The way I read it this morning (Tor Star-cant find it now) is it would be pretty near impoosible for Bernier to have lost in his own riding due to his popularity except as respects his stand on the supply chain for dairy producers.
They had a breakdown of numbers but I am unsure if it was riding by riding (they showed a few for sure.

The best I can offer is ......
https://www.realagriculture.com/2017/05/dairy-farmers-made-difference-in-scheers-surprise-win-over-bernier/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.4135484

http://www.producer.com/2017/0.....eadership/

Damn, wish I could find the original story but alas I cannot.


Thanks for the links!

I would need to see the breakdown after each round to be able to really comment;
However, I think that the idea that Scheer was unknown is an interesting argument which is being made but I don't believe its apt.

I would likely concede that 32m Canadians may not have been able to pick him out of a line up prior to this week, but in the circles of folks who actually would care enough to register, copy their ID, mail it, and vote in the leadership race he was a known commodity.

Much like Harper who was not a known commodity in Ontario winning Ontario in 2004 over two Ontario candidates.

One of the articles you linked actually stated Scheer had spent a lot of time in Quebec (even two visits to Beauce). If his goal was to be the "Rural Rockstar" he may have succeeded if he repeated that approach across all Provinces.

Again without any real data in front of me;

I would argue that the social conservative vote that rallied around Trost and Lemieux that fell off the ballot after round 11 which went nearly 60% to Scheer was likely the most important aspect in his victory.

But again, once the riding breakdowns per round are published we will have much better insight on what happened and where.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So .. the milk cartel gets to vote in the Conservative Party? I don't think so. Maybe it persuaded milk cartel members to depose Bernier. And maybe they paid for the memberships? More likely. But it's part of the territory within all the parties.

It's my suspicion that the voting system they used encouraged this kind of campaign tactics.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Toronto Centre wrote:
What is to be made of the block voting (signing up to vote yet not being a Con supporter) from the dairy farmers in Ont and Que?

Is there any validity to the issue? It appears that way from the numbers being Bernier lost his riding and practically no one knew Scheer?


I didn't think the party had released the riding by riding breakdown (If anyone has it I would love to see it);

Are they implying he lost his riding from the start or by the time we got the final round?
Because it appears he came out of round one with 40% of the points from the Quebec.


Riding results are here: http://www.conservative.ca/leadership/en/results
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conservatives get small bump in support despite public’s unfamiliarity with new leader Scheer



Marie-Danielle Smith | June 1, 2017 | Last Updated: Jun 1 6:00 AM ET
More from Marie-Danielle Smith
.
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer in the House of Commons on Wednesday, May 31, 2017.


OTTAWA — Who is this Andrew Scheer guy, anyway?

About a third of Canadians aren’t familiar enough with the name to be able to answer that, and almost another third don’t know what to make of the new Conservative leader, a new Mainstreet Research/Postmedia poll shows.

The Conservative party is seeing a small boost in support after the weekend’s leadership election, based on a phone survey of 2,800 Canadians conducted Sunday and Monday: one percentage point among all voters, and two percentage points among decided and leaning voters, versus numbers from May 14 and 15.

The little uptick is within the poll’s margin of error — plus or minus 1.85 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. But the takeaway, says pollster Quito Maggi, is that the party’s voter base is steady despite Scheer, a Saskatchewan MP and former speaker of the House of Commons, being relatively unknown.

“He’s not going to see the same bump that most leaders get post-leadership convention, just because of that factor that nobody knows who this guy is, outside of people who follow this stuff, and obvious partisans,” Maggi said.




“The good news is that it didn’t go down because he’s less known,” he added. “It’s where do they go from here. … They kind of have a rush job to do in terms of getting Canadians to know Andrew Scheer.”


Andrew Scheer: New Conservative Party Leader 1:55


More people like Scheer than dislike him. The poll found 21 per cent had favourable views on the 38-year-old leader versus 16 per cent unfavourable. About 33 per cent said they are not familiar with Scheer, while 30 per cent were unsure about their opinion.

In Saskatchewan, where he is better known, 59 per cent of respondents liked Scheer, 25 per cent had unfavourable views, 10 per cent were unsure and just six per cent weren’t familiar.

In Quebec, where it is believed Scheer’s support from dairy farmers helped secure his victory, more than three-quarters of respondents either didn’t know him or weren’t sure, while 12 per cent liked him and 13 per cent disliked him.

Nationally, the Liberals still have a significant lead, though Tories are ahead in Alberta and Saskatchewan: 35 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals; 29 per cent would vote for Scheer’s Conservatives; and 14 per cent would vote for Tom Mulcair’s NDP. Four per cent would vote Green; three per cent would vote Bloc Québécois; and 14 per cent were undecided.

Mainstreet also polled respondents on two questions related to free speech on university campuses.


Related
John Ivison: Scheer unveils his ‘first among equals’ approach on day one as Conservative leader
Chris Selley: Scheer’s Conservatives can be a more confident movement
The policies Andrew Scheer ran on — and how the Liberals will use them to attack him
.
Half were asked whether universities should prohibit photos of aborted fetuses on campus. A full 72 per cent of respondents said they think the photos should not be allowed, while 19 per cent said they should and nine per cent were unsure.

Other respondents were asked whether the federal government should withhold grants from universities that “cannot ensure freedom of speech on campus,” a policy that Scheer campaigned on during the leadership election. Scheer’s idea was favourable to 38 per cent of respondents and unfavourable to 45 per cent, while 17 per cent were unsure.

These results have an increased margin of error of plus or minus 2.62 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, because each question was posed to half of the group.

Mainstreet/iPolitics polling had consistently showed libertarian candidate Maxime Bernier as the front-running leadership candidate going into last weekend. In scenarios run by Mainstreet, Scheer won 15 per cent of the time, but always at a narrow margin. Saturday’s result was 51 to 49 per cent for Scheer.

Maggi said Scheer was boosted by high turnout among social conservative groups, as well as dairy farmers in Quebec who disliked Bernier’s idea to end supply management

http://news.nationalpost.com/n.....der-scheer
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's hope that Andrew isn't depending on his likeability to do the job. A nice smile is certainly an asset, but it's stlll only a nice smile. I hope he has Harper's strategic sense and the same intense focus. A biting sense of humour would be another asset worthy of developing.

I saw a two photos of Trudeau at the NATO conference. One of them very much the center of attention as he showed off his pink socks. Novelty socks! (Maybe Sophie bought them for him, as part of her onerous duties managing nannies and responding to invitations.) The other was of a cluster of NATO heads of state clustered around a bar or a railing, discussing something serious, while Justin fidgets, pushed outside the circle. That's what we have -- a charming man-child as our leader. He's like a woman, showing off his socks for attention, but cut out of the discussion when the serious topics are on the table.

We should know that he's only the front man of a political machine that has formed itself out of the insiders from the old McGuinty machine. Based on that record, they are tenacious in power, careless about spending, and fundamentally committed to environmentalism. When they leave power, they will leave behind a massive debt and crazy, money-wasting policies behind them, and a mess worse than the NDP.

We're looking to Andrew to head that off before they get a second term.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Toronto Centre wrote:
What is to be made of the block voting (signing up to vote yet not being a Con supporter) from the dairy farmers in Ont and Que?

Is there any validity to the issue? It appears that way from the numbers being Bernier lost his riding and practically no one knew Scheer?


I didn't think the party had released the riding by riding breakdown (If anyone has it I would love to see it);

Are they implying he lost his riding from the start or by the time we got the final round?
Because it appears he came out of round one with 40% of the points from the Quebec.


Riding results are here: http://www.conservative.ca/leadership/en/results


Beautiful!

Thank you!!!
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

After playing with the results for a little while;
Scheer did it on the backs of Non-Urban Ridings, its amazing how many rural ridings Scheer came out of the gate with 50+ in round one.

In Quebec Scheer won ridings like Abitibi–Témiscamingue, Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup & Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia with > 75% of the final vote and starting out round one with around 60%+

In terms of Scheer winning Beauce;
It seems that Bernier was ahead till Blaney dropped off the ballot then the majority of his support surprisingly went to Scheer rather than another Quebec MP.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
After playing with the results for a little while;
Scheer did it on the backs of Non-Urban Ridings, its amazing how many rural ridings Scheer came out of the gate with 50+ in round one.

In Quebec Scheer won ridings like Abitibi–Témiscamingue, Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup & Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia with > 75% of the final vote and starting out round one with around 60%+

In terms of Scheer winning Beauce;
It seems that Bernier was ahead till Blaney dropped off the ballot then the majority of his support surprisingly went to Scheer rather than another Quebec MP.


The urban ridings are, for the most part, ones we do bot currently hold and are ridings where we struggle in regardless. Scheer seemed to win the leadership by winning ridings where the CPC already do well. I was concerned about his ability to really grow the party and the fact that he couldn't win over CPC members in the ridings that we need to win to form government is more troubling.
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trying to get more info but no luck

It was a Dairy Farmers facebook page that was canvassing all the farmers , well in fact demending them, to NOT vote for Bernier but for Scheer. The numbers that was shown lend credence to the claim.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
After playing with the results for a little while;
Scheer did it on the backs of Non-Urban Ridings, its amazing how many rural ridings Scheer came out of the gate with 50+ in round one.

In Quebec Scheer won ridings like Abitibi–Témiscamingue, Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup & Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia with > 75% of the final vote and starting out round one with around 60%+

In terms of Scheer winning Beauce;
It seems that Bernier was ahead till Blaney dropped off the ballot then the majority of his support surprisingly went to Scheer rather than another Quebec MP.


The urban ridings are, for the most part, ones we do bot currently hold and are ridings where we struggle in regardless. Scheer seemed to win the leadership by winning ridings where the CPC already do well. I was concerned about his ability to really grow the party and the fact that he couldn't win over CPC members in the ridings that we need to win to form government is more troubling.


Agreed.
Scheer clearly spoke to the base, he was ahead by miles in several rural ridings out of the gate that have historically voted CPC.

Whereas Bernier was incredibly effective in urban ridings;
I haven't gone through every single riding, but Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and most of Calgary and Edmonton largely went for Bernier.

The region I found interesting for Scheer was the Maritimes;
He seemed to do well in a lot of the ridings the CPC won from 2006 - 2011

Ontario not so much.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toronto Centre wrote:
Trying to get more info but no luck

It was a Dairy Farmers facebook page that was canvassing all the farmers , well in fact demending them, to NOT vote for Bernier but for Scheer. The numbers that was shown lend credence to the claim.


As the CPC site only seems to have % rather than hard votes cast I can't really comment definitively;

If I was asked to float a best guess? I don't doubt some Dairy Farmers had Bernier as the last option, but with the membership cutoff dates (March 28th) being before O'Leary dropped out (April 26th) and Bernier became the frontrunner I am not sure how effective it would have been.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Abacus Data released interesting information last week about the Conservatives having a millennial problem, which showed data on the demographic changes that will have occurred from 2011 to 2019.

Millenials will be the biggest voting block come 2019. They will represent 37% of all voters, compared to 21% in 2011. What is known as the silent generation will almost cease to exist, after having represented 12% of all voters in 2011. Boomers will represent 32% of voters, slightly down, and Generation X will represent 28%, also down.

In 2015, the Conservatives placed third among the 57% of millenials who turned out to vote.

Scheer has mentioned many times how the party's policies did not defeat them but rather their attitude. People like out policies but were sick of Harper. He, and many others, seem to think the 2011 Conservative majority coalition can be recreated. However, the data shows that this coalition will no longer exist come 2019. In 2011, we placed second behind the NDP among milenials with 33% of the vote, 6 points lower than what we recieved overall.

The party has been known for using data, so they need to take a serious look at how to win millenials.
http://abacusdata.ca/the-numbe.....deal-with/
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