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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:32 pm    Post subject: The Obama defectors Reply with quote

h/t to instapundit.com, who comments that " ... You know things are a’changin’ when the Washington Post does a story on the Obama Defectors."


The Obama defectors

Barring some kind of last-minute surge, President Obama is going to fall well shy of the 52.9 percent he won in the 2008 election. It might still be good enough to win, but it won’t be resounding.

But just who exactly has deserted Obama over the last four years?

Two weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up their mind yet.

The chart below shows the erosion of Obama’s 2008 coalition among many key demographics:

Among the most likely to defect are the usual suspects: Republicans and conservatives who crossed over to vote for Obama in 2008, along with white evangelicals and white men without college degrees. Obama already struggled with these groups, so no surprise here.

What’s perhaps most striking is who the rest of Obama’s defectors are. While much of the focus has been on how Obama has turned off white men, his defectors run the gamut.

Obama is losing 16 percent of white non-evangelical Protestants who previously supported him to Romney, but also 19 percent of white Catholics. While he has lost 21 percent of his non-college-educated white men, he has also lost 17 percent of white male college graduates and 18 percent of women who didn’t attain four-year degrees. And Obama has lost between 11 percent and 14 percent of supporters in all three age groups: under 40 years old, 40-64, and 65-plus.

(Yes, many of these groups are white, but within the white demographic — which is still roughly three-fourths of the electorate — the even distribution of defectors is notable.)

Less obvious — and a positive sign for Obama — is his high retention rate among Hispanics and those with no religious affiliation. Both are fast-growing groups in the population and supported Obama at record levels in 2008. If they do so again, it will certainly help Obama offset his losses among other demographics.

Other groups that have stuck by Obama with few exceptions are liberals and those making less than $50,000 per year. Not surprisingly, these are the people Obama has focused his message on throughout this campaign, particularly his push to let the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans expire.

It’s pretty clear that many types of Americans are breaking up with Obama in their own way, and if Obama loses, it won’t be because he lost favor with any one particular group. The breakup would in fact be pretty universal.

Romney and Ryan both going to Pennsylvania: Both men on the GOP presidential ticket will go to Pennsylvania this weekend — a reflection of how important the state has become to its path to victory.

Paul Ryan will be in the state on Saturday, while Romney will go on Sunday.

In response, Democrats noted that many Republican presidential candidates have made late pushes in Pennsylvania, only to come up short.

“In an act of sheer desperation, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are going all in in Pennsylvania, following the lead of every Republican presidential candidate since 1992 who have made last ditch investments in the Keystone State. Not one of them carried the state,” Obama spokesman Michael Czin said in a statement.

As we wrote Wednesday, the Romney campaign’s insistence on putting states like Pennsylvania in play may have as much to do with its lack of a path to victory in the current crop of “tossup” states as it does with how competitive Pennsylvania looks right now.

Republicans have also made late investments in Minnesota, Michigan and even New Mexico. All are expected to go for Obama.

I don't much care for this 'firewall' idea, as if political feelings are some kind of contagious event. To a degree, of course can be useful ... but doesn't the truth of it indicate that the so-called 'Southern firewall' has crumbled, and the question is whether the 'northern firewall' will as well. Obama is even losing 2% of Liberal Democrats and Afro-Americans. He's lost 13% of the electorate already -- as detected by a poll that collected data between Oct 18-31. That's 13% of previous Obama supporters, plus another possible 3% who are presently undecided. Depending, that's between 9 and 11 million votes -- but there was erosion over the whole two weeks of the polling, and it is probably still going on. Obama might find, by election day, these figures would be much higher.

If even those 9-11 million people don't vote, then Obama's support has dropped to McCain levels. But if a significant fraction of that 9 to 11 million go out and vote against Obama, then Obama is a goner. Just saying ...
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The Obama defectors

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