| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
|
 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:03 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| RCO wrote: | | it sounds at this time like it was 1 riding ( guelph ) where something illegal happened and a bunch of other ridings where its just bitter liberal and ndp supporters making accusations against the conservatives they can't even prove |
Being entirely fair;
If this was 2004 and the CPC was in opposition and an opportunity like this to toss spaghetti at a wall and see if it sticks arises, you damn well know that CPC supports in ridings that were closely lost to the Liberals in 04 like Northumberland—Quinte West, Edmonton—Beaumont, etc would be filling the phone lines of Elections Canada with complaints.
Something like 95% of the Robocall complaints have been filled over the last two weeks, nearly 9 months after the election.
I don't blame the opposition and their supporters for tossing up a long bomb and hoping someone catches it in the endzone, they really have nothing else to lose.
What I find so interesting is that in the Liberals rush to cast doubt on not only ridings they lost to the Tories, but ridings they lost to the NDP they have tossed so much mud into the middle of this issue that its rapidly becoming something so much bigger then it actually is that when we finally get to the bottom of this I think we will all be disappointed. |
|
|
|
 |
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:48 am Post subject: |
|
|
Was able to hunt down the latest Forums Poll:
National:
CPC: 37
NDP: 28
LPC: 25
BQ: 5
GPC: 4
Ontario
CPC: 38
NDP: 29
LPC: 29
Quebec:
CPC: 18
NDP: 26
LPC:28
BQ: 23
British Columbia:
CPC: 40
NDP: 31
LPC: 17
GPC: 11
Alberta:
CPC: 69
NDP: 16
LPC: 11
http://www.threehundredeight.b.....uebec.html |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I have been playing around with the Census numbers, and tossing my "best guess" as to where the addition seats will be added in the 2015 election and what I find interesting is that in the three regions adding the bulk of the seats (Ontario, BC, and Alberta) the Tories lead is pretty hefty.
If you break it down by the Provinces getting seats
Ontario's Top 15 Underrepresented Ridings:
CPC: 14
NDP: 1
Alberta's Top 6 Underrepresented Ridings:
CPC: 6
British Columbia's Top 6 Underrepresented Ridings:
CPC: 4
NDP: 1
LPC: 1
Quebec's Top 6 Underrepresented Ridings:
NDP: 3
It will be interesting to see the new boundaries because based on a 338 seat breakdown I wonder if the Tories still secure a majority even at 37%? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:48 am Post subject: |
|
|
EKOS new poll is out; a poll that was basically taken a dozen or so days after the subject poll which I have been questioning for the better part of the last 12 days.
EKOS:
March 11, 2012
National:
CPC: 35.4 (+3.9)
NDP: 29.7 (+0.5)
LPC: 19.6 (-2.1)
BQ: 5.8 (-0.2)
GPC: 7 (-1.3)
http://www.ekos.com/admin/arti.....-03-16.pdf
What I gather from this is that Robocall-Gate has been so popular amongst former Liberal and Green supporters that they have flocked to the Tories over the last two weeks.
The results seem odd considering the timing of the last poll, however these generally seem in line with the rest of the polling done recently.
What I found very strange was the Quebec results:
Quebec:
NDP: 30.6
BQ: 24.5
CPC: 22.9
LPC: 15.1
MoE: 4.7
Its strange to me that even with the MoE the Liberals appear to be in last place of the four contenders in Quebec, and the CPC appears to be within the MoE of the BQ.
The Liberals so far behind seems to be a conflict with many of the other Quebec level polls.
I think that this may lend some creditability to the earlier polls that the CPC is in first place in Quebec City, but then again I am still not sold on the EKOS polling methodology so who knows? |
|
|
|
|
|
