[cosmostein]

Now that we are underway;

I figured I would start the morning off with a rather bizare poll from Harris-Decima

Lib: 41
PC: 29
NDP: 24

Source: http://ontarionewswatch.com/archive.html?id=39499

I have to wonder if this is simply more of the type of polling which implied that the Ford/Smitherman election would be close, and that Harper was destine for a Minority Government.

On the riding level at least from some of the sample polling I have seen; it appears that Mississauga-South, Nipissing, and Barrie seem to be PC gains, and Mississauga-Erindale, Oakville, and Kitchener Centre are "Leans PC"

I am not entirely sure how the above polling result nationally would imply a loss of seats, so I guess we will need to wait for some more polling to determine if there is any traction.

[RCO]

this poll borders on nonesense unless another poll comes out with similar numbers nothing from any of the other pollsters have shown the liberals doing this well for almost a year . i'd still say pc's have a slight lead province wide , only been thru a couple ridings so far in a pretty clue part od province and all i've seen so far and pc and green signs on homes , little evidence of a liberal campaign here . maybe there stronger in toronto . either way this is going to be a close election , more then likely we see some sort of minority in the end extremely doubtful liberals win another majority i think those days are done with .

[machiavelli]

MCGUINTY'S BROKEN "NO TAX INCREASE" PROMISE

In 2004, McGuinty implemented Ontario Health Premium costing tax payers as much as $900 annually and providing the government with $2. 8 billion to give wage increases to his union friends.

Although this new tax was warranted by McGuinty as a procedure to abbreviate wait-times in hospitals, this did not result in any significant improvements in either Emergency Rooms, and Operations wait times. All the McGuinty government accomplish for the medial structure was to delisted eye exams, physiotherapy and chiropractic care from OHIP, while leaving sex changes publicly funded.

This was just one of McGuinty's copious broken promises of “Not raising taxes”.

[Progressive Tory]

Was Hudak a good choice for PC leader or not, it would seem to me like the PCs should be doing much better?

[905 Tory]

I think Hudak was a good choice. Its just that it seems as though the PC are painting themselves as Liberal-lite to appeal to centre voters. As a result, a strong contrast hasn't been presented.

In addition, the Federal NDP rise to official opposition and Layton's death has played a role in making the NDP seem like a credible alternative in this election. In turn, voters who would have left the Liberals for the PC have instead aligned with the NDP.

However, all hope is not lost as NDP rise is not as bad as it seems. In many ridings, this could split the vote in favour of the PC.

[cosmostein]

[cosmostein]

[Progressive Tory]

McGuinty's slight shift to right probably didn't help Hudak.

[cosmostein]

[Progressive Tory]

That was a very odd policy on McGuinty's part, though I guess it will win him votes with immigrants. Let's see how non-immigrants feel about the policy, I haven't bothered looking through the Liberals or PCs platforms.

[cosmostein]

[RCO]

( election is now tied according to most recent polls , the thing almost impossible to figure out is why has liberal support gone up in 3 regions home to very few immigrants ( northern ontario , central ontario and southwestern Ontario ) these areas should be primed for change and an easy win for pc's and ndp . its extremely difficult to understand why liberal support is up in these areas ? as article says clearly there is something else in play that opposition parties not yet figured out )

Liberals, Tories separated by just one point in Ontario election: poll

Peter J. Thompson/National Post
Ontario's Premier Dalton McGuinty (RIGHT) and his wife Terri McGuinty (LEFT), wave after touring Mississauga's electrovaya plant, Monday September 12, 2011

.Postmedia News Sep 12, 2011 –
By Lee Greenberg

TORONTO — Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal party is gaining momentum in the election campaign and now leads the Conservatives by a paper-thin margin, according to a new poll done for the Ottawa Citizen.

Related
John Ivison: McGuinty says he’ll stay full four years if re-elected

.The governing Liberals are siting at 38 per cent support, a slim, one-point lead over the Progressive Conservative party, which are at 37 per cent support, according to the Ipsos Reid poll.
The third-place New Democratic Party is showing robust support, at 24 per cent, while the Green party has almost disappeared from public support at one per cent.

The poll is the first to track support since the provincial campaign kicked off Sept 7. The contest has so far been dominated by talk of a Liberal tax credit for employers hiring skilled immigrants. The Tories portrayed that policy as one that would prioritize “foreign” workers over the nearly 500,000 domestic unemployed, despite Liberal assurances it applied only to Canadian citizens.

The Liberals labeled their chief rivals as xenophobic, while Tories said Liberals were prioritizing groups of immigrants.

Ipsos senior vice president John Wright says it is too soon to tell what impact the strategy will have on the Oct. 6 vote.

“We’re in the early days of the campaign,” he said. “What’s normally started out as the central issue has not ended up as the issue.”

However, the governing Liberals, seeking a third consecutive majority, have gained considerable momentum.

An Ipsos poll just two months ago had the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by a considerable, 11-point margin. At the time, Wright said the race was PC leader “Tim Hudak’s to lose.”

On Monday, Wright said the dynamic of the race had changed considerably.

“Right now we have a minority government for somebody,” he said. “The edge goes to the Tories because they will get their vote out but we don’t know for sure because there’s still another three weeks to go.”

Wright says the Tory base is “much more committed” than Grit supporters to follow through and vote, he says.

Fully 67 per cent of PC supporters said they were “absolutely certain” to vote on October 6th, whereas only 61 per cent of Liberal supporters said the same thing.

The NDP, whose support has doubled in roughly two years, would hold the balance of power in a minority government scenario, said Wright.

A regional breakdown of the numbers shows some interesting movement.

Eastern Ontario is now the biggest Tory stronghold in the province, with 46 per cent of voters here supporting the PC party. Liberals hold 36 per cent in the region while New Democrats have 17 per cent support, that party’s lowest levels in the province.

The Liberals have made significant advances in three other parts of the province – Central Ontario, Southwest Ontario, and the North – where the immigrant tax credit was not likely the issue, Wright says, adding it’s too early to tell why those numbers have swung in the Liberals’ favour.

“There’s something else going out there because the Tories have dropped in three regions that probably wouldn’t care much about this issue, except to vote against the government,” he said.

In the most-watched region of the province, the critical ‘905’ suburban beltway surrounding Toronto, the Grits lead the Tories 41 per cent to 38 per cent.

The Grits hold 15 of 23 seats in the 905. In Toronto, the governing party holds 19 of 23 seats, and Wright says there is no sign of a Tory breakthrough.

“To win a majority they would need to take (seats in) Toronto,” he said.

Wright says the Progressive Conservative party will need to broaden the scope of its pitch to attract more voters. The current offering of tax cuts and opposition to the Liberal tax credit is too limited.

“If this is playing to his base you have to ask the question what is going to play to the rest of the people,” he said. “Because if you just play to your base you don’t win a majority.”

Meanwhile, women voters are more likely to support the McGuinty Liberals, who attract 38 per cent female support, than Conservatives, who attract 34 per cent. New Democrats draw 27 per cent support by women.

The Ipsos/Ottawa Citizen poll surveyed 800 randomly-selected adults by telephone between Sept 7 -11. It is considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....tion-poll/

[cosmostein]

In about a week at this rate, it will be over for the opposition parties.

What kills me is the total lack of common sense.

Hudak's campaign team seems to be stuck in a loop "Taxman, Taxman, Taxman" to which McGuinty replied with a very effective TV ad explaining that tough decisions are not always popular decisions.

Regardless of who you agree with, McGuinty has successfully neutralized Hudak's lone message.

Hudak has any number routes we can move forward with;

-McGuinty hasn't committed to serving out his full term; who will be Premier in two years if the Liberals are re-elected?

-Harper is polling in the mid-high 40's in Ontario, why are the Provincial Tories not leaning on that, and using Harper's handling of the Economy to their benefit?

-Axe the HST on gasoline for goodness sake! That will make you a hero in Toronto's bedroom communities. This is one Hudak could pass on day one, cheaper fuel by Christmas!

-With the current polls we could find ourselves with a Liberal Minority with the NDP carrying the balance of power, can Ontario afford another Peterson/Rae style set-up?

Its almost painful watching Hudak fall down the same chute that Tory did.

[RCO]

My advice for the Ontario pc's would be to not panic at the new numbers but try and figure out whats going on and re-calibrate the campaign as they say . they need to figure out why the numbers shifted and why some voters are uncomfortble with hudak and pc's at the moment .
but also need to remember there is bigger isuses out there than just talking about immigrant job credit . Mcguinty lead the province to have not status , added hst to gasonline , 1000's of jobs were lost , ran a massive deficit and Ontario has an increasing debt . lets not get sidetracked and stay focused on the big issues .
the economy overall is a major issue and should not be forgotten even if tax credit appears a more juicey issue to attack .
the party also needs to address all the union smear ads and go after those idiots some more , we can't let them get away with this nonesense each election and its time we went after this bogus working families group , the public has a right to know who the people behind these ads really are and why they want to see hudak defeated so bad and what favours they expect from mcguinty if he gets relected and what unions paying for the ads have contracts up for negotions with province in next few years

[905 Tory]

It isn't enough to make McGuinty look stupid. Hudak needs to get more aggressive and start to put out more "sexy" ideas. Scrapping the HST for gas as listed before is one of them. Another would be to put out some numbers on what the Tories will downsize with regards to the overinflated provincial government to make things more affordable with accompanying tax reductions.