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 Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:20 am Post subject: 2013 Liberal Leadership Race - April 14, 2013 |
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Since its slow and we have a bit of time before it gets interesting, I figured this may be worth discussing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L.....tion,_2013
Wiki's List of Potential Candidates:
Scott Brison (44) Bilingual
Denis Coderre (48) Bilingual
Marc Garneau (62) Bilingual
Ralph Goodale (61) Not Bilingual
Dominic LeBlanc (43) Bilingual
David McGuinty (51) Bilingual
Justin Trudeau (39) Bilingual
Cosmo's List of Potential Candidates:
Dalton McGuinty (56) Bilingual
Why: The Liberals need some creditability among Liberals; former NDP Premiers, Republican, Progressive Conservatives, and any other Johnnie come lately types simply continue to erode whatever the Liberals once stood for.
21 years as a Liberal MPP
15 years as Leader of the Ontario Liberals
8 years as Premier of Ontario
Even with running the Province into the ground his polling numbers are still higher in Ontario then any Federal leader since Paul Martin.
Robert Ghiz (37) Bilingual
Why: Because you need to stop the revolving door of leadership, and securing a leader who is young enough to lead for a while has its benefits.
In terms of "young" Liberals Ghiz is the anti-Justin Trudeau. He has been in politics since the mid-1990's, with private sector experience in banking, and has been leader of the PEI Liberals since 2003, has been Premier since 2007, and is polling at 60% for an election slated to happen in October.
He is by miles the most popular Liberal in Canada, in a time where being a Liberal is not the easiest thing.
Gary Doer (63) Bilingual
Why: Because the Liberals haven't figured out how to beat back Tory gains in four elections.
If you can't beat em, go after the other guy.
The NDP finds itself with 103 seats, that is 74 more then they won in 2006.
Many of their seats even outside of Quebec are soft support seats that recently went NDP, and many of those seats use to be Liberal seats (Northern Ontario and Downtown Toronto spring to mind)
Doer could bring back some of the lost support the Liberals have lost at the expense of the left over the last five years, and at least redevelop a powerbase for them to grow from.
He may be a one election leader, however the Liberals are looking into the abyss and they need some direction and some degree of positive victories to take away from the next election.
Last edited by cosmostein on Wed Nov 28, 2012 9:32 am; edited 1 time in total |
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| Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2011 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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I think if Dalton McGuinty wins the election in October he should consider running federally. He says this will be his last provincial election so he could serve as premier for a year and a half and then run for the federal leadership. At least he is a centrist unlike what we've seen lately with Liberals. Him winning is also good for David McGuinty I think too. David has an impressive resume, he is younger, bilingual, and an effective member in the House of Commons.
Robert Ghiz definitely has the potential to go federal but I doubt he'd leave the premiers chair in the next couple of years. He has another 20+ years to become leader.
I've mentioned Ted Hsu before and I think he should definitely look at the leadership. He might be new to the House of Commons but neither Layton or Mulroney were MPs when they became leaders of their parties, and both were the most successful leaders their parties had. He's got the financial background, has worked in the field of sustainable development, late 40's and multilingual. He helped rebuild his riding association and the Liberals have since used it as an example of what they must do in other ridings. I'll need to see more from him in the House.
Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a likely front runner and for good reason. He's a young talented MP with a good bit of experience. He doesn't appear to have baggage like the last few leaders and he's a French Canadian from rural New Brunswick. During his short 2008 leadership bid he discussed the importance of making the party relevant outside of downtown Toronto.
I've always liked Scott Brison and think he could have made a great PC leader. He's smart, talented and charismatic, but his past with the PCs will come back to bite him in the ass, though I don't believe it should. Brison has also mentioned opening up the leadership process to all Canadians and tweeted the other day about how the Alberta Liberals have 27,000 supporters now up from something like 4,000 a few months ago. |
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| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 9:47 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | I think if Dalton McGuinty wins the election in October he should consider running federally. He says this will be his last provincial election so he could serve as premier for a year and a half and then run for the federal leadership. At least he is a centrist unlike what we've seen lately with Liberals. Him winning is also good for David McGuinty I think too. David has an impressive resume, he is younger, bilingual, and an effective member in the House of Commons.
Robert Ghiz definitely has the potential to go federal but I doubt he'd leave the premiers chair in the next couple of years. He has another 20+ years to become leader.
I've mentioned Ted Hsu before and I think he should definitely look at the leadership. He might be new to the House of Commons but neither Layton or Mulroney were MPs when they became leaders of their parties, and both were the most successful leaders their parties had. He's got the financial background, has worked in the field of sustainable development, late 40's and multilingual. He helped rebuild his riding association and the Liberals have since used it as an example of what they must do in other ridings. I'll need to see more from him in the House.
Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a likely front runner and for good reason. He's a young talented MP with a good bit of experience. He doesn't appear to have baggage like the last few leaders and he's a French Canadian from rural New Brunswick. During his short 2008 leadership bid he discussed the importance of making the party relevant outside of downtown Toronto.
I've always liked Scott Brison and think he could have made a great PC leader. He's smart, talented and charismatic, but his past with the PCs will come back to bite him in the ass, though I don't believe it should. Brison has also mentioned opening up the leadership process to all Canadians and tweeted the other day about how the Alberta Liberals have 27,000 supporters now up from something like 4,000 a few months ago. |
The more I read about Ted Hsu, the more there is to like.
However I suspect he is the type of leader you would need to elect right now and spend four years getting Canada comfortable with him as he is not that well known.
Dalton McGuinty win-lose-draw should get some consideration;
I agree with your point on Ghiz, he has time.
However his popularity is in the 60's right now, and I simply suggested him because he defines striking while the iron is hot. |
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| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | I think if Dalton McGuinty wins the election in October he should consider running federally. He says this will be his last provincial election so he could serve as premier for a year and a half and then run for the federal leadership. At least he is a centrist unlike what we've seen lately with Liberals. Him winning is also good for David McGuinty I think too. David has an impressive resume, he is younger, bilingual, and an effective member in the House of Commons.
Robert Ghiz definitely has the potential to go federal but I doubt he'd leave the premiers chair in the next couple of years. He has another 20+ years to become leader.
I've mentioned Ted Hsu before and I think he should definitely look at the leadership. He might be new to the House of Commons but neither Layton or Mulroney were MPs when they became leaders of their parties, and both were the most successful leaders their parties had. He's got the financial background, has worked in the field of sustainable development, late 40's and multilingual. He helped rebuild his riding association and the Liberals have since used it as an example of what they must do in other ridings. I'll need to see more from him in the House.
Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a likely front runner and for good reason. He's a young talented MP with a good bit of experience. He doesn't appear to have baggage like the last few leaders and he's a French Canadian from rural New Brunswick. During his short 2008 leadership bid he discussed the importance of making the party relevant outside of downtown Toronto.
I've always liked Scott Brison and think he could have made a great PC leader. He's smart, talented and charismatic, but his past with the PCs will come back to bite him in the ass, though I don't believe it should. Brison has also mentioned opening up the leadership process to all Canadians and tweeted the other day about how the Alberta Liberals have 27,000 supporters now up from something like 4,000 a few months ago. |
The more I read about Ted Hsu, the more there is to like.
However I suspect he is the type of leader you would need to elect right now and spend four years getting Canada comfortable with him as he is not that well known.
Dalton McGuinty win-lose-draw should get some consideration;
I agree with your point on Ghiz, he has time.
However his popularity is in the 60's right now, and I simply suggested him because he defines striking while the iron is hot. |
A lot easier to be popular in a province, particularly a small one.
I'd just like to see them have a true centrist leader who isn't someone to be afraid of. Maybe then the party can go back to being in the centre instead of being the NDP lite.
If we end up with another minority in 2015 and the Liberals are still third it'd be nice for them to have a leader that would be willing to cooperate with the Conservatives just as much as the NDP. |
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| Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:33 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: |
A lot easier to be popular in a province, particularly a small one.
I'd just like to see them have a true centrist leader who isn't someone to be afraid of. Maybe then the party can go back to being in the centre instead of being the NDP lite.
If we end up with another minority in 2015 and the Liberals are still third it'd be nice for them to have a leader that would be willing to cooperate with the Conservatives just as much as the NDP. |
No Question;
However the Conservatives did win the popular vote in PEI in May; Ghiz is at roughly 60% in PEI which means he is either appealing to Federal Tory voters or New Democrat voters within the Province.
A leader in the center would pull them to the mid-20's alone;
Paul Martin Liberals got the shaft; the CPC was in part formed because of a fear that the soft right branch of the right would rather vote for Paul Martin then whomever the two right parties were carting out.
It was hard to argue that; as Martin was polling in the 40's when we became leader.
After 2006 the party went hard left and left those Paul Martin Liberals to hold their nose and vote for Harper.
It would be nice if a Liberal leader now within this majority Parliament sided with both the Conservatives and the New Democrats when appropriate. |
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| Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:47 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
A lot easier to be popular in a province, particularly a small one.
I'd just like to see them have a true centrist leader who isn't someone to be afraid of. Maybe then the party can go back to being in the centre instead of being the NDP lite.
If we end up with another minority in 2015 and the Liberals are still third it'd be nice for them to have a leader that would be willing to cooperate with the Conservatives just as much as the NDP. |
No Question;
However the Conservatives did win the popular vote in PEI in May; Ghiz is at roughly 60% in PEI which means he is either appealing to Federal Tory voters or New Democrat voters within the Province.
A leader in the center would pull them to the mid-20's alone;
Paul Martin Liberals got the shaft; the CPC was in part formed because of a fear that the soft right branch of the right would rather vote for Paul Martin then whomever the two right parties were carting out.
It was hard to argue that; as Martin was polling in the 40's when we became leader.
After 2006 the party went hard left and left those Paul Martin Liberals to hold their nose and vote for Harper.
It would be nice if a Liberal leader now within this majority Parliament sided with both the Conservatives and the New Democrats when appropriate. |
I hadn't realized that the Conservatives just squeaked out the Liberals in PEI to win the popular vote.
The Liberal Party has not shown themselves in recent years as being a party that could handle a rocky economy and be fiscally conservative. Despite the fact that they had an excellent economic record in the 1990's.
I would like to see the Liberals challenge the Conservatives for not being more fiscally responsible. I think they should have blasted Harper in May for appointed 39 Ministers, instead they appointed their whole 34 member caucus to shadow critic portfolios. I think they could have appointed twenty odd critics and argued that the Conservatives have to many ministers.
I also think that the Conservatives could be reducing the public service by allowing more people to retire, instead of just laying people off, and that's something the Liberals could also fight for. Promote cuts within the public service but fight for a better way to make those cuts so that you don't have 35 year old's being layed off while there are 52, 53, 54 year old's who would be happy to leave a their job a early as long as their pension wasn't reduced. |
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| Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| The Liberals need to start looking soon for possible leadership candidates. Try looking at the provincial levels in all provinces to see who could possibly take a shot at the leadership. They should make sure to have at least one strong female candidate, Sandra Pupatello maybe, and definitely a western candidate. They need to make it cheaper to enter the race and they need to new system for selecting a leader. |
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| Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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Just watched a video of Sandra Pupatello, wonder does she speak french?
Anyone else have any further insight on her? I've read that it was thought she might be named Deputy Premier in 2003 and that it was expected she would of had more high profile ministerial posts. She has also been mentioned as a possible successor to McGuinty. She seemed very strong in the video I watched of her, does she have any baggage, besides being a McGuinty Minister? |
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| Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 8:47 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | The Liberals need to start looking soon for possible leadership candidates. Try looking at the provincial levels in all provinces to see who could possibly take a shot at the leadership. They should make sure to have at least one strong female candidate, Sandra Pupatello maybe, and definitely a western candidate. They need to make it cheaper to enter the race and they need to new system for selecting a leader. |
I think female needs to be second to "Liberal".
Its been a long time since the Liberals actually had someone who could rule from both sides of the political spectrum and in the process watched all the PCers they should have been able to snag walk back into the Tory camp, along with most right leaning Liberals. |
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RCO
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 1895
  
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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you have to wonder why the liberals are waiting till 2013 ? i'm not even convinced that the party still be relavent by then .
as after a high profile ndp leadership race and a couple years of ndp as official opposition who is going to pay any attention to Bob Rae ? seriously the party is going no where .
i don't see Dalton Mcguinty running for the leadership , he'll likely disappear after oct 6 if his party loses as badly as i suspect they will . we won't be seeing much of him after that , his brother david mcguinty might try and run though , he allready has a seat and profile . dalton might of been a successful liberal leader if he had jumped federally around 2008 but by now he has long passed his expiry date and should of just retired |
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| Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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| RCO wrote: | you have to wonder why the liberals are waiting till 2013 ? i'm not even convinced that the party still be relavent by then .
as after a high profile ndp leadership race and a couple years of ndp as official opposition who is going to pay any attention to Bob Rae ? seriously the party is going no where .
i don't see Dalton Mcguinty running for the leadership , he'll likely disappear after oct 6 if his party loses as badly as i suspect they will . we won't be seeing much of him after that , his brother david mcguinty might try and run though , he allready has a seat and profile . dalton might of been a successful liberal leader if he had jumped federally around 2008 but by now he has long passed his expiry date and should of just retired |
Stephane Dion was the one who advocated for 2013 to choose the leadership. He felt the party needed enough money to be able to fight Conservative attack ads against the leader before he/she was defined solely by those ads.
Former premiers don't usually do well when they go federal but I do think McGuinty could have done okay had he gone federal in 2008, like you suggested. At least he's more of a centrist rather then the lefty leaders the Liberals have had recently. Looking at opinion polls the Ontario Liberals were still fairly popular in 2008 and for most of 2009 so had McGuinty left and gone for the federal leadership he would probably have been popular in Ontario. |
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| Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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The Liberals will not have more means then the Tories to defend their leader in 2013.
I would go as far as to say that if the Tories did not raise another dollar till 2013 they will still have more in the warchest then the Liberals, especially after an expensive leadership race that will cripple the losers financially.
If the Liberals want to define their leader; then pick one now and let him/her stand on their principals for the next four years.
Harper was painted as someone who would privatize Health Care the second he got power; and he has been PM for more then Five years now ruling over a Majority.
The Liberal leader needs elbow grease more then anything else to establish themselves. |
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| Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | The Liberals will not have more means then the Tories to defend their leader in 2013.
I would go as far as to say that if the Tories did not raise another dollar till 2013 they will still have more in the warchest then the Liberals, especially after an expensive leadership race that will cripple the losers financially.
If the Liberals want to define their leader; then pick one now and let him/her stand on their principals for the next four years.
Harper was painted as someone who would privatize Health Care the second he got power; and he has been PM for more then Five years now ruling over a Majority.
The Liberal leader needs elbow grease more then anything else to establish themselves. |
Couldn't agree more.
I've been told that the Conservatives have more money then they know what to do with.
I understand what Dion was thinking but I feel the party is waiting to long. I think their race should have been held in 2012, late Spring or early Fall. |
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| Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2011 9:26 am Post subject: |
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I understand Dion's thoughts;
He went from being the "smartest man in the party" in the eyes of the public to being Mr. "It's not Fair" almost overnight.
The problem with Dion is that its far easier to label someone a "wimp" when they are a "wimp" and Dion largely took the barrage without any attempt to deflect or defend.
I don't think the Liberal Leadership Pool is going to get much deeper;
Have a race during the Summer of 2012 and be done with it, walk into the fall session with a fully functional government. |
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| Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | I understand Dion's thoughts;
He went from being the "smartest man in the party" in the eyes of the public to being Mr. "It's not Fair" almost overnight.
The problem with Dion is that its far easier to label someone a "wimp" when they are a "wimp" and Dion largely took the barrage without any attempt to deflect or defend.
I don't think the Liberal Leadership Pool is going to get much deeper;
Have a race during the Summer of 2012 and be done with it, walk into the fall session with a fully functional government. |
Dion's problems communicating in English didn't help when trying to defend himself.
I watched John Manley and Anne McLellan on CBC last night and I still think Manley could have made an excellent leader. I'm pretty sure I would choose him in a minute to be Prime Minister, and he could lead either the Liberals or Conservatives. McLellan is also a very impressive woman, had she been re-elected in 2006 I think she could have had a very strong showing in that year's leadership race. |
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2013 Liberal Leadership Race - April 14, 2013 |
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