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Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And Garneau is out.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 4382
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, we have a coronation.

The main threat I see is that he will enable the Liberals to reclaim the losses that they suffered under Ignatieff. Which would suggest the Conservatives would be back in a minority position -- except for those 30 new seats. But many of them are in bellweather areas like the famous 905. Who can be sure of which way they will go?
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

garneau must of realised it was a mistake to run in the first place and that no one but trudeau was going to win this .
other than his name trudeau doesn't really bring anything to the table that other liberal leaders from montreal brought , he's just a younger version of a paul martin or stephane dion . outside of montreal and toronto i somehow don't think there is a big appetite for another liberal from urban montreal . way too many of them in the last number of years , of course liberals will like him but can they grow and appeal to other voters is the unknown . i'm sure liberals will poll better for a few months but a year from now ?
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 1185
Reputation: 113
votes: 1

PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Garneau did exactly what he was suppose to do, pretty much. People wanted Garneau to run so that Trudeau had a tough competitor and if Trudeau did screw up they'd have a solid alternative. Trudeau has performed very well and has shown he can compete. It's unlikely Trudeau will blow it now so why should Garneau spend another $100,000 plus to lose to Trudeau? That's money the party could use more than Garneau.
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 1185
Reputation: 113
votes: 1

PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone know if you can change your username? I hate that word progressive now and it really doesn't reflect my views that much.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 4382
Reputation: 245.4
votes: 8

PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Anyone know if you can change your username? I hate that word progressive now and it really doesn't reflect my views that much.


I found this under FAQ ...

Quote:
How do I change my settings?
All your settings (if you are registered) are stored in the database. To alter them click the Profile link (generally shown at the top of pages but this may not be the case). This will allow you to change all your settings.


Hope this helps.
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 1185
Reputation: 113
votes: 1

PostPosted: Fri Mar 15, 2013 6:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
Anyone know if you can change your username? I hate that word progressive now and it really doesn't reflect my views that much.


I found this under FAQ ...

Quote:
How do I change my settings?
All your settings (if you are registered) are stored in the database. To alter them click the Profile link (generally shown at the top of pages but this may not be the case). This will allow you to change all your settings.


Hope this helps.

Thanks, but it doesn't allow you to change your name.

Now back to our regularly scheduled conversation.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 7523
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Location: The World

PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
And Garneau is out.


I am surprised he held out this long;
The race is a one man race, and its been one since Trudeau announced he was going to run.

The biggest tragedy is that Garneau was asking a lot of questions that Liberals who have left the party since 2004 were asking, and I suspect that many of his issues will be dropped.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one storyline that gets lost in this Coronation is really a simple one?

What if they lose in 2015?

I have been pretty clear in my understanding as to why the Liberals are opting to go with Justin Trudeau likely four years too soon; it spans from the simple fact that if the Liberals lose again in the same manner in 2015 as they did in 2011 they very likely go the way of the Liberal Party of the United Kingdom and no amount of Trudeaumania saves them then.

2015 is their last best hope for a revival.

While the media and the Liberals go on about their soon to be new leader, we seem to have forgotten to consider the other possible outcome.

If the Liberals finish 3rd once again in 2015; and should the Conservatives secure their 4th election win and 2nd majority what happens then?

There is nothing left, Trudeau was the "In case of emergency break glass" Liberal Leader.

If you use up the Trudeau name, and you lose then what?
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
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votes: 1

PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't see the Liberals not being able to make gains in 2015. Even if they're just hypothetical polls it is hard to imagine that Trudeau could go form 40% now in polling to 19% or worse in the 2015 election. I'd say the worse they could probably do is mid twenties and tied with the NDP in 2015.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I can't see the Liberals not being able to make gains in 2015. Even if they're just hypothetical polls it is hard to imagine that Trudeau could go form 40% now in polling to 19% or worse in the 2015 election. I'd say the worse they could probably do is mid twenties and tied with the NDP in 2015.


The election is in 32 months;
"40%" today is interesting and should be something Trudeau and his team should be proud of, but again 32 months is an entirety in politics especially for the Liberals.

I guess it depends on what sort of gains?
Quebec is a quick and easy fix, wow the masses and easily walk away with the NDP spoils from 2011.

The problem is that I am not entirely convinced that Mulcair isn't a better tactician then Trudeau is.

Quebec is the low hanging fruit which is what the Liberals should be targeting and what Mulcair will be defending, and what Pallie should be doing everything in his power to get a piece of.

There is a line I heard years ago which I always tend to fall back when it comes to politics,

"What's seen as good for Quebec by Quebecois is normally seen as bad for Canada by Canadians"

Generally speaking its hard to keep a Quebec voter base happy without alienating some part of Canada outside Quebec.

If the LPC mandate is 90 seats in 2015 and official opposition then its all good,
However the LPC is placing a tremendous amount of pressure on victory in 2015, and Trudeau's antics are not helping that.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....ction.html

I don't think we are in a political reality where you can secure Quebec and Ontario because of the high price Quebec support comes at.

If Mulcair plays smart in Quebec, and Pallie is any factor the perfect storm could see the Liberals at 22 - 25% with around the same number of seats if not a few more.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How does the prospect of an economic decline of some kind -- probably at least 50-50 over the next 30 months -- affect your calculations?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
How does the prospect of an economic decline of some kind -- probably at least 50-50 over the next 30 months -- affect your calculations?


It will largely depend on the;
How, where, and when.

The problem with an Economic issue is that while the masses may not love Harper I am not entirely convinced on that singular issue that most would sooner trust the opposition parties.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 4382
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How, when, and where?

Let's say European money starts looking for a safer haven ... and they see that the banks of Switzerland, Australia, and Canada seem safe. The Canadian dollar starts to strengthen against the US dollar. Joblessness rises, but it's OK because it only affects men, at least at first, and nobody gives a rat's patootie about men.

The government responds by devaluing the Canadian dollar. The result is worse than expected. No real discernable effect on unemployment.

But then, the Fed comes to a point where it can no longer control interest rates. They soar, 7%, 8%, 9% ... and keep going up.

Something like this will not be confined to one country. If US Treasuries are at 9%, the same thing will happen in Canada. Or they will be at least 1% higher, as is traditional.

The housing market in Canada collapses. Recent purchasers find themselves 'under water' almost universally.

Then what?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Within the context of this situation assuming such a situation occurs, I would have to see what the Liberal, NDP, and CPC response would be and how the public reacted.

At that point it may cause a change in calculation.
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