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Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I was asked over the weekend who I felt the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada would be;

Being so preoccupied with the BQ and NDP races I nearly forgot about the Liberals.

At this point I have no idea;

The list of "Prospective Candidates" appears to be shaping up;

Scott Brison
Denis Coderre
Marc Garneau
Ralph Goodale
Dominic LeBlanc
David McGuinty
Borys Wrzesnewskyj

That is perhaps the most uninspiring list I could have even dreamed up; the sad reality is that it appears to be the field so far

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L.....tion,_2013

Forget about beating Harper;
That is a LONG way away, which one of those above can beat Brian Topp or Tom Mulcair to secure the official opposition?

With Dalton McGunity trapped in Ontario under a Minority Government; who is there to save the Liberals?


Scott Brison could be excellent. Very bright, charismatic, young, not a left-wing nut, but he's got baggage to and has mentioned that he would not run.

David McGuinty has a strong resume and Borys Wrzesnewskyj doesn't seem bad either but I don't know much about him.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:


Scott Brison could be excellent. Very bright, charismatic, young, not a left-wing nut, but he's got baggage to and has mentioned that he would not run.

David McGuinty has a strong resume and Borys Wrzesnewskyj doesn't seem bad either but I don't know much about him.


I guess the next question is simply "what are the expectations of this next leader?"

If its to form a government, I just don't see any of them being able to secure the 80 - 130 seats needed to do that.

If its simply to return to opposition under a Conservative Majority then its possible; however I would imagine the undoing of the NDP will have more to do with the Bloc's leadership election rather then the Liberals as there are no strong French candidates running for the LPC.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:


Scott Brison could be excellent. Very bright, charismatic, young, not a left-wing nut, but he's got baggage to and has mentioned that he would not run.

David McGuinty has a strong resume and Borys Wrzesnewskyj doesn't seem bad either but I don't know much about him.


I guess the next question is simply "what are the expectations of this next leader?"

If its to form a government, I just don't see any of them being able to secure the 80 - 130 seats needed to do that.

If its simply to return to opposition under a Conservative Majority then its possible; however I would imagine the undoing of the NDP will have more to do with the Bloc's leadership election rather then the Liberals as there are no strong French candidates running for the LPC.


Who knows what will happen, the next leader may not even be on the radar yet. Some members, including Brison, have discussed opening up the race for the leader to a similar system as they use in the States. I hope that the party gets back on their feet because I hate the idea of the NDP being able to form government.

Someone said the other day mentioned that the party should look at becoming a movement like the CAQ in Quebec. I don't know if Liberals have realized how screwed they are though to actually try and transform themselves.

Massimo Pacetti is a Quebec MP who did fairly well in his riding in May, but I never hear anything about him. He's only 49 and a former accountant, i don't know if there's a reason why but he seems like someone who the party should try to profiles a bit more.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:


Who knows what will happen, the next leader may not even be on the radar yet. Some members, including Brison, have discussed opening up the race for the leader to a similar system as they use in the States. I hope that the party gets back on their feet because I hate the idea of the NDP being able to form government.

Someone said the other day mentioned that the party should look at becoming a movement like the CAQ in Quebec. I don't know if Liberals have realized how screwed they are though to actually try and transform themselves.


You are right;
We really have no idea what could happen.

However its getting pretty late in the game to be a rising star.

Bob Rae rightly or wrongly so is holding the reigns very tightly amongst the Liberal caucus and the odds that someone will rise out of caucus while he institutes his typical shenanigans is very unlikely.

I just don't see someone coming out of right field who is not already on the radar to lead this party.

As to if the Liberals realize how screwed they are;
I would imagine forcing Rae to take the interim job and not run for permanent leader is a sign that someone at Liberal Headquarters has some political sense.

Dion and Ignatieff were both folks with less political history then Rae and the Tories eviscerated them in the public eye, Bob Rae would be a gift to the Tories for the 2015 election and it would be followed by a 2016-17 Liberal Leadership Convention.

Clearly there is some reasoning occurring.
It looks like the folks running for leadership are (mostly) folks young enough to contest the elections in 2015 and if a majority occurs then they could contend again in 2019.

However allowing Rae to dictate the term of his "leadership" was perhaps the politically stupid move which balanced out the above smart one.

The BQ and NDP will have had leaders in place for over a year before the Liberals even cast ballot one.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:

Massimo Pacetti is a Quebec MP who did fairly well in his riding in May, but I never hear anything about him. He's only 49 and a former accountant, i don't know if there's a reason why but he seems like someone who the party should try to profiles a bit more.


Pacetti is in the wrong party;
He is a social Conservative who fit in better with the Martin Liberals then he does with the softer cuddlier left wing version.

He was one of the few Liberals to vote against Bill C-38,

Him and Jim Karygiannis, Gerry Byrne, John McKay and Francis Scarpaleggia are all MP's that I simply cannot understand still being Liberals under Bob Rae.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:

Massimo Pacetti is a Quebec MP who did fairly well in his riding in May, but I never hear anything about him. He's only 49 and a former accountant, i don't know if there's a reason why but he seems like someone who the party should try to profiles a bit more.


Pacetti is in the wrong party;
He is a social Conservative who fit in better with the Martin Liberals then he does with the softer cuddlier left wing version.

He was one of the few Liberals to vote against Bill C-38,

Him and Jim Karygiannis, Gerry Byrne, John McKay and Francis Scarpaleggia are all MP's that I simply cannot understand still being Liberals under Bob Rae.


Gerry Byrne is an idiot and a hardcore Liberal. He is by far the most irritating MP from Newfoundland and Laberador, and Ryan Cleary is from here so that's saying something.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 7436
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votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:

Massimo Pacetti is a Quebec MP who did fairly well in his riding in May, but I never hear anything about him. He's only 49 and a former accountant, i don't know if there's a reason why but he seems like someone who the party should try to profiles a bit more.


Pacetti is in the wrong party;
He is a social Conservative who fit in better with the Martin Liberals then he does with the softer cuddlier left wing version.

He was one of the few Liberals to vote against Bill C-38,

Him and Jim Karygiannis, Gerry Byrne, John McKay and Francis Scarpaleggia are all MP's that I simply cannot understand still being Liberals under Bob Rae.


Gerry Byrne is an idiot and a hardcore Liberal. He is by far the most irritating MP from Newfoundland and Laberador, and Ryan Cleary is from here so that's saying something.


I am not saying Byrne is not a Liberal;
However the goalposts of the party have moved since he was first elected in 1996.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:

Massimo Pacetti is a Quebec MP who did fairly well in his riding in May, but I never hear anything about him. He's only 49 and a former accountant, i don't know if there's a reason why but he seems like someone who the party should try to profiles a bit more.


Pacetti is in the wrong party;
He is a social Conservative who fit in better with the Martin Liberals then he does with the softer cuddlier left wing version.

He was one of the few Liberals to vote against Bill C-38,

Him and Jim Karygiannis, Gerry Byrne, John McKay and Francis Scarpaleggia are all MP's that I simply cannot understand still being Liberals under Bob Rae.


Gerry Byrne is an idiot and a hardcore Liberal. He is by far the most irritating MP from Newfoundland and Laberador, and Ryan Cleary is from here so that's saying something.


I am not saying Byrne is not a Liberal;
However the goalposts of the party have moved since he was first elected in 1996.

I just cannot stand the man, i don't understand how he got elected and how he gets reelected.

Is it a good thing or bad thing the Liberals don't really have a frontrunner? It's not like they don't have MPs that are capable of being the next leader, there's just nobody in the current bunch who stands out as the one to beat.

There might be some politicians in Ontario interested in the job now that they are in a minority government, but again they may be better off with a Quebecker. I'm not familiar with Quebec politicians to know if there are any stand outs who are federal Liberals. Again there are people to in politics who could take on the job, look at what Mulroney did.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:


Is it a good thing or bad thing the Liberals don't really have a frontrunner? It's not like they don't have MPs that are capable of being the next leader, there's just nobody in the current bunch who stands out as the one to beat.

There might be some politicians in Ontario interested in the job now that they are in a minority government, but again they may be better off with a Quebecker. I'm not familiar with Quebec politicians to know if there are any stand outs who are federal Liberals. Again there are people to in politics who could take on the job, look at what Mulroney did.


I think its a bad thing;

It wouldn't be if you had a leadership convention in March 2012, however if a new leader won't be crowned till June 2013 and that leader is going to come out of left field it gives you around two years to get Canada acclimated to the new leader, and with the lack of money they will have he/she is going to be swimming upstream.

At least if you awarded leadership next year even if it came out of left field you have a ton of time to get that person's name out there and try and minimize the slash job that will follow their election.

The only names out of Ontario I could see chasing the job would be Dalton McGuinty or perhaps George Smitherman, which is why the Toronto-Danforth by-election may prove interesting.

Mulroney is a good example;
But Mulroney lost his first run at leadership in 1976, and had it not been for the coup in the 1983 leadership run he never would have won.

Mulroney does provide a good example in the fact that a good candidate can not be elected if they don't have the profile needed secure the love of the party brass.

A Quebec leader could work;
Rae is positioning the party to attempt to make gains in Quebec; today's walk out over the AG appointment to protest his lack of bilingual issue springs to mind.

Rae clearly understands that with him at the helm Ontario outside of Toronto is a lost cause for the party and he is focusing on the Liberals other former powerbase.

The issue is that Denis Coderre is pretty well the list;
And that guy is hated by the Toronto Liberals almost as much as Harper.

If you wanted me to pick a crazy never going to happen but could work selection for leader of the Liberals;

Mario Dumont?

Slight right of center, a reformed sovereigntist, former President of the young Parti libéral du Québec, and I would say he is Quebec's version of Jack Layton.

Everyone likes the guy, you may not vote for him, but you generally respect him.

Dumont certainly is more in line from a political ideology stance with the existing Liberal caucus then many of the others slated to seek leadership, and he is 41 years old with nearly 20 years of political experience.

He is a wonderful speaker, and he wins you back every riding the Liberals lost in Quebec to the NDP in a single election.

But like I said;
Never going to happen, figured I may as well just throw a name out there.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm a fan of Mario Dumont, I think Quebec missed out on a good premier.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I'm a fan of Mario Dumont, I think Quebec missed out on a good premier.


My hope was that the Tories would have wooed him to run in the Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup by-election.

With his age and his experience he would be quite the addition to any party.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
I'm a fan of Mario Dumont, I think Quebec missed out on a good premier.


My hope was that the Tories would have wooed him to run in the Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup by-election.

With his age and his experience he would be quite the addition to any party.


I would think he'd be more likely to run for the Conservatives then the Liberals.

Many Quebec Liberals may be out of jobs over the next year. Any idea what federal party Alain Paquet belongs to, though as Finance Minister he hasn't done that great of a job.
cosmostein





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votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
I'm a fan of Mario Dumont, I think Quebec missed out on a good premier.


My hope was that the Tories would have wooed him to run in the Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup by-election.

With his age and his experience he would be quite the addition to any party.


I would think he'd be more likely to run for the Conservatives then the Liberals.

Many Quebec Liberals may be out of jobs over the next year. Any idea what federal party Alain Paquet belongs to, though as Finance Minister he hasn't done that great of a job.


He isn't a hardline Conservative;
He is a fiscal one.

I wouldn't say Dumont would be that much different the Paul Martin in terms of political ideology.

He seems like one of those guys who could skirt the line.

Alain Paquet hasn't taken a stance federally one way or another;
So I am not sure.

However the LPQ may be in "trouble" however it appears the opposition vote could be split in four when the dust settles, we could see a 30% majority under those conditions.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
I'm a fan of Mario Dumont, I think Quebec missed out on a good premier.


My hope was that the Tories would have wooed him to run in the Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup by-election.

With his age and his experience he would be quite the addition to any party.


I would think he'd be more likely to run for the Conservatives then the Liberals.

Many Quebec Liberals may be out of jobs over the next year. Any idea what federal party Alain Paquet belongs to, though as Finance Minister he hasn't done that great of a job.


He isn't a hardline Conservative;
He is a fiscal one.

I wouldn't say Dumont would be that much different the Paul Martin in terms of political ideology.

He seems like one of those guys who could skirt the line.

Alain Paquet hasn't taken a stance federally one way or another;
So I am not sure.

However the LPQ may be in "trouble" however it appears the opposition vote could be split in four when the dust settles, we could see a 30% majority under those conditions.


Quebec politics is so screwed up.

I'd say the majority of Quebec and Atlantic Canadian Conservatives would be perfectly fine in a Paul Martin or John Manley Liberal Party.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love a leadership race and am excited for the Liberals in particular. The NDP's has been fairly boring because they have yet to talk about policy or what they will do different in 2015 then 2011 because they think they are perfect.

The Liberals should be interesting because they could end up with a variety of candidates talking about really changing the party going forward. Their candidates could end up being quite ideologically different as well. Of course Bob Rae could very well be acclaimed leader.
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