[Progressive Tory]

There's a new poll out today so with four months to go before the provincial election I thought I'd start a thread and release the current poll numbers and then give updates when they are available.

This is the first poll released since March and it shows a drop for Kathy Dunderdale, who originally was polling at Danny Williams numbers. The biggest thing is the rise for the NDP. For the first time I think ever the NDP are statistically tied with the Liberal Party, I never seen the NDP poll above 10% and their best result in a general election was in the 1985 election when they won 14.4% of the vote (they won one seat), since then their highest number was in an election was in 2007 with 8.49%. They've never had more then two seats in the legislature.

The poll shows that the Progressive Conservatives lead with 57%, down 16%, The Liberals are at 22%, up 4%, and the NDP are at 20%, up 12%.

As for who would make the best premier, Dunderdale leads with 51%, down 13%, followed by Liberal leader Yvonne Jones at 16%, down 2%, and NDP leader Lorraine Michael is in third with 14%, up 9%. The previous poll by CRA was down in March.

Some are making a big deal about Dunderdale's number but I don't think they are anything to worry about, she's still quite popular.

[Progressive Tory]

Today the Liberal Party's House Leader ended months of speculation by announcing he will not run for re-election in October. He is the second Liberal MHA to announce they are not running again, with two members down the party will only have half of its current caucus seeking re-election. :)

[Progressive Tory]

Today Labrador Affairs Minister John Hickey announced he's not seeking re-election, he joins speaker Roger Fitzgerald and backbencher Sheila Osborne as the Progressive Conservatives who are retiring.

[Progressive Tory]

Last week incumbent PC MHA Ray Hunter beat former Conservative MP Rex Barnes in the nomination race in Grand Falls-Windsor—Green Bay South. It seems like now the PCs to be getting into the districts where either they have no incumbet, their incumbent is retiring or they are expecting their incumbent to be challanged.

So far the party has only nominated incumbents, and only three have faced nominations contests and each time the incumbent easily won.

As for the Liberals they have two incumbents running and have nominated seven other candidates. Out of those seven candidates one is a former MHA and two others have previously ran for the party. By the middle of the week they will likely have Dwight Ball nominated, he served as MHA for seven months back in 2007. As well Jim Bennett, Sandra Pupatello's husband, who served as Liberal leader for three months a few years back is running for the Liberal nomination to try and win a seat.

The NDP, who I'm hoping will become the Official Opposition this October, have four candidates in place, including their leader, and have open nominations in four other districts. The NDP are more organized then ever before and have some credible candidates in place.

[Progressive Tory]

Here's a brief update on what's happening in Newfoundland and Labrador, with just over two months to go before the election!

The NDP seem to be in their best position ever, and with lots of momentum left over from the federal election it looks as though they have an excellent chance of forming the Official Opposition. They've nominated some well known candidates and if all goes well for them they should be able to pick up some seats. It's hard to know how they will do because while their best chances are thought to be in the St. John's area in the last election the PCs won 70% of the vote in the districts in the city and 80% in the suburbs. The party may be able to pick up a couple though. I also think there could be some chances in seats in rural areas, I've read some positive things about NDP candidates on blogs and in comments on different web pages and it seems as though they may have a few candidates who could take out a few backbench PCs and maybe even a cabinet minister. At the moment I think there could be four seats outside the St. John's Area where they could have chances, this may not seem like much but the most this party has ever won is two seats.

[Progressive Tory]

Two stories on the election.

[Progressive Tory]

There are rumours floating around that Liberal leader Yvonne Jones is resigning as leader. There have been rumours about her leaving since Danny quit and only a few weeks ago she dismissed rumors that she'd been quitting.

[Progressive Tory]

Yvonne Jones is set to retire from politics by the end of the week.

[Progressive Tory]

So since the beginning of the week the Liberal Party has lost their leader due to health reasons, a leadership race has kicked off and their new leader will be chosen by Sunday.

Three candidates have announced, only one of whom is credible, and a few more may declare before the noon deadline tomorrow.

Here are two stories on the candidates.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....d-811.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....d-810.html (The comments in this story are particularly good!)

[Progressive Tory]

6 days till the writ drops!

PCs have all 48 candidates in place, the NDP have 29 and the Liberals 27.

[RCO]

( the ndp may become the official opposition in Newfoundland and Labrador )

Crunching Numbers

With Tories cruising to victory, Nfld. NDP charts course for opposition


éric grenier

Globe and Mail Update

Published Sunday, Oct. 09, 2011 9:03PM EDT



On Tuesday, Newfoundland and Labrador voters are expected to give the Progressive Conservatives their third consecutive mandate since 2003 – and a first under the leadership of Premier Kathy Dunderdale. While there is little doubt about the make-up of the next government in Newfoundland and Labrador, how the opposition parties will fare is the big question heading into election day.

More related to this story
•Stephen Harper, meet your unofficial opposition
•Silver is gold in Newfoundland’s election
•How Newfoundland Liberals found and lost a candidate on same day


Infographic

Where Newfoundland parties stand heading into 2011 election


Video

Newfoundland election campaign kicks off

For the first time in their history, Newfoundland New Democrats are running second in the polls and are on track to form the Official Opposition. The Liberals, who have governed the province for most of its post-Confederation history, are a distant third but may have enough pockets of strength in the rural parts of the island to come out ahead of Lorraine Michael’s NDP.

The odds are against Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward, however. The three final polls of the campaign, all conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 4, put Liberal support equal to or less than 17 per cent. The New Democrats are hovering around 30 per cent, while Ms. Dunderdale’s Tories could take anywhere from 50 per cent to 60 per cent of the vote.

Based on a weighted aggregation of these polls, the Progressive Conservatives are projected to take 55.1 per cent of the vote, their lowest haul since 1999. The New Democrats are projected to have 30.4 per cent support, almost four times the 8.2 per cent of the vote the NDP took in 2007 and more than twice their best performance of 1985. The Newfoundland Liberals are projected to have 14.2 per cent of the votes cast Tuesday night – their worst result since Confederation.

With these levels of support, ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat projection model gives the Progressive Conservatives 42 seats, one less than they had when the House of Assembly was dissolved. The New Democrats are projected to win four seats and form the Official Opposition, while the Liberals are projected to win two. The Liberals held four and the NDP one at dissolution.

Ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador are relatively small, and local issues and candidates play a more important role than they might in other provinces. And with the rise of the New Democrats from distant third to a strong second, predicting the precise number of seats is difficult. But based on the available data and the close races expected, the Progressive Conservatives are most likely to win between 39 and 44 seats. Anything but a majority government is out of the question.

While the New Democrats come out ahead in the projection model, the number of close races suggests the role of the Official Opposition is still up for grabs. The NDP, however, has the edge. They are projected to win between three and five seats, while the Liberals could win between one and four.

How the vote breaks down in the province will be the deciding factor.

The most important battleground is in St. John’s, where the NDP’s fortunes will be decided. The party holds the city’s two seats at the federal level but provincially the Tories dominate the capital. The one NDP seat, occupied by Ms. Michael, is located here.

Polls differ on the situation in St. John’s. Environics found support in the city to be dead even between the two parties at 47 per cent apiece, while Corporate Research Associates gave the Tories the support of about 60 per cent of decided voters, with the New Democrats at about 31 per cent. If the race is as close as Environics predicts, the New Democrats could win as many as four seats in the city. If the gap is the kind that CRA suggests it is, the New Democrats are unlikely to win any new seats in St. John’s.

In the rest of the province, the Liberals are more competitive and are running second to the Tories in the western parts of Newfoundland and in Labrador. This is where the Liberals will be gunning for seats tomorrow night, and a few incumbents might be difficult to dislodge.

But the votes still need to be cast and counted. With the election of a female premier, the potential downfall of a formerly grand party, and the breakthrough of another that used to occupy the fringes, Tuesday night’s election in Newfoundland and Labrador promises to be an important one in the province’s history.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le2196259/

[RCO]

( liberal leader may not even win his own seat as he's trying to defeat a pc cabinet minister not an easy thing to do when your behind in the polls )


Home focus for Aylward in home stretch

CBC News

Posted: Oct 8, 2011 12:25 PM NT

Aylward was first elected in 1985, at the age of 24
Aylward retired from politics in 2003, but returned in August to become Liberal leader






Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward is spending the final days of the Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign in the district where he hopes to topple a Tory cabinet minister.
Kevin Aylward has been going door to door in St. George's-Stephenville East.(Carolyn Ray/CBC)
Aylward has spent about a third of the campaign in and around St. George's-Stephenville East, in a bid to unseat PC incumbent Joan Burke, the minister of education, in Tuesday's election. [MORE: Read a history of St. George's-Stephenville East.]

Aylward, 51, said the area was in far better shape when he held the district between 1985 and 2003.

"I like to stick to the facts. So yeah, absolutely, times were better," Aylward said Friday.

"Times were better when I was MHA of Bay St George."

Aylward, who was picked as Liberal leader in August when Yvonne Jones stepped down for health reasons, has led a tour around the province, but has also been keen to meet as many voters as possible in his own district.

While the PCs say Burke's constituency work will assure her of a win, Aylward said his past performance gives him the edge.

"You know, the hospital was built on my watch. I take credit for it," he said while campaigning at the institution.

Aylward's mother, Laura Aylward, a long-time player in municipal politics in Stephenville, said she is determined to remind people of what her son accomplished during his first stint in politics.

"The dome, the pool, the infrastructure, the water supply, dialysis at the hospital, you name it," she said.

"There's a list a list a mile long [that] he got for this district. Not only for Stephenville - the other areas as well."

Winning the seat is a vital for the Liberals, who have been struggling with comparatively low funds and have had difficulty completing a slate of 48 candidates. In 2007, then leader Gerry Reid narrowly lost his own seat in The Isles of Notre Dame.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....h-108.html

[RCO]

Dunderdale not taking anything for granted

CBC News

Posted: Oct 10, 2011 12:05 PM NT


The Tory leader who appears poised to become the first woman elected premier of Newfoundland and Labrador says she is taking nothing for granted.

"Complacency is your greatest enemy in an election," Progressive Conservative Leader Kathy Dunderdale said.

“When it's hard to motivate people to become engaged to get out and to cast their ballot, then you have a concern about that."

The three political parties made their final push on Monday, with each saying that motivating voters is key to their plans.

Campaigning in his own district of St. George's-Stephenville East, Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward said the campaign will come down to dogfights in particular districts.

"We have revitalized and really [revived] many of the riding associations in the past number of weeks," Aylward said in an interview.

"The strength of the candidates are bringing out people who were Liberals in the past, and also new people who have been apolitical [and] have joined the Liberal party," Aylward said.

NDP Leader Lorraine Michael hit the road Monday in the Avalon Peninsula with visits to Mount Pearl South, Bellevue and Trinity-Bay de Verde.

"Right now, my focus is the final day," Michael told CBC News. "[We're] letting people know that we're here, reminding them that we are a choice and leaving it up to people on Tuesday."

Dunderdale wound down her campaign on Monday with a visit to a St. John's farm, accompanied by one of her grandchildren.

Polls have suggested the governing Tories are poised to form a third consecutive majority government, but also suggest the NDP could make gains. [ON POINT: Who will form the Opposition?]

Dunderdale said that hasn’t changed her party’s plans.

Despite challenges from both parties, Dunderdale says she's confident the Tories ran a good campaign.

“You get out, you focus on the people in the district, you don't pay a whole lot of attention to the noise all around you and at the end of the day, that's what pays off,” she said.

At dissolution, the PCs held 43 of the 48 seats in the house of assembly, while the Liberals held four and the NDP held one.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1010.html

[RCO]

( dunderdale easily held onto the premiers job but alot of new opposition MLA's were elected new standings in legislature 37 pc , 6 lib , 5 ndp )


Conservatives win third straight majority government


Premier Kathy Dunderdale victory speech at Delta in St. John's. — Photo by Keith Gosse/The Telegram
Published on October 11, 2011
Published on October 11, 2011
The Canadian Press ST. JOHN’S — Kathy Dunderdale made history Tuesday by becoming the first woman elected premier of Newfoundland and Labrador as she led the Progressive Conservative party to its third-straight majority government.

The victory also allows her to step from the shadow of the legendary Danny Williams nearly a year after he left office.

“I was involved in his government for eight years and I learned many lessons from him,” Dunderdale, 59, said earlier in the day after voting.

“And, you know, I put those to good use but ... it’s a new day and it’s a new team and it’s important that we have the look and the feel of what it’s going to be for the future.”

Dunderdale easily won her St. John’s-area riding of Virginia Waters.

The Opposition Liberals started the campaign saddled with a $600,000 debt and a last-minute leadership change. Kevin Aylward took over from Yvonne Jones in August when she suddenly stepped down to focus on her recovery from breast cancer.

Aylward, 51, a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister, campaigned hard on two key messages. He believes rural Newfoundland is being left behind, and that the $6.2-billion Muskrat Falls hydro deal in Labrador is a bad bargain that will raise light bills and pile on provincial debt.

But his message did not sway voters, including those in the western riding of St. George’s-Stephenville East, where he lost to Education Minister Joan Burke.

Aylward is the second Liberal leader to fail to win a seat in as many elections.

Led by Lorraine Michael, the NDP campaigned on a promise to impose a three per cent surtax on the province’s lucrative offshore oil sector and redistribute that wealth to pay for improved health services. That position stoked some controversy on the campaign trail, particularly after she admitted she didn’t seek a legal opinion before committing to it. But she stood by her share-the-wealth message.

“I think we were visible, we were focused,” said the 68-year-old former nun after she cast her ballot. “People knew exactly where we stood on issues.”



View the gallery
Michael was re-elected in her downtown St. John’s riding of Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

Dunderdale ran a classic front-runner’s campaign without any major gaffes or outlandish promises. She found herself fending off opposition attacks over the viability of the Muskrat Falls project, her ties with Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the plight of the province’s rural outports, but they did not stick.

She is the fourth incumbent provincial premier to get re-elected this fall. And since she took over for Williams last December, three other women have also become premiers.

Going into the campaign, the Tories held 43 seats in the legislature compared to four Liberals and one New Democrat.



•••

Early poll results indicate a PC majority government elected under the leadership of Kathy Dunderdale.

•••

The polls have closed for the 2011 Provincial General Election and Telegram and other Transcontinental Media reporters and photographers are out in force throughout the province to bring you live, informative reports from many districts.

Check out the live feed, click HERE.

Check out district by district results HERE as they are reported on the official Elections Newfoundland and Labrador website.

According to Elections Newfoundland and Labrador, there are 1,717 polls in 48 electoral districts, which will be reporting results during the evening.

The advance poll results and the Special Ballot results will be included in the election results released tonight


http://www.thetelegram.com/New.....vernment/1

[cosmostein]

Have to feel for the NDP;
They were so close to the official opposition and then at the last moment they lost two seats.