[Craig Smith]

[cosmostein]

What I find some interesting about this election aside from the Wildrose Vs. PC battle is the fact that when the smoke settles the Liberals and NDP may be toast.

The Liberals secured 9 seats on 26.4% of the vote in 2008, now you have them 9-11 range basically tied with the NDP.

We could see five seats between the NDP and Liberals when all is done.

[Progressive Tory]

The Globe and Mail has endorsed the PC Party.

[RCO]

[RCO]

( some good insight from david akin on the race in alberta and extreme level of pc desperation , its pathetic to see a supposed conservative party resorting to liberal scare tactics on social issues in such a way , but i don't think the attacks will be successful or win over average albertans )


Déjà vu all over again in Alberta election

8:31 am, April 20th, 2012


Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith (left), Progressive Conservative leader Alison Redford (right), Alberta Liberal leader Raj Sherman (centre left) and Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason (not shown) met at CBC studios in Edmonton, Alberta, on April 19, 2012.

Credits: IAN KUCERAK/EDMONTON SUN/QMI AGENCY


DAVID AKIN | PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU


EDMONTON - In the 2006 federal election, a once-powerful political dynasty was on its last legs and, desperate to save itself, lashed out at the challenger on its right flank by warning voters of the scary socially conservative bogeyman that would take the country back to the 1950s.

As it was with Paul Martin's Liberals facing defeat at the hands of Stephen Harper's Conservatives, so it is this week in Alberta where the Progressive Conservatives, a dynasty in office since 1971, is trying to scare away voters from the challenger on its right flank, the Wildrose Party.

Premier Alison Redford, the Progressive Conservative leader, started the scary Wildrose meme two weeks ago, telling voters she was "frightened" - her word - by some of the ideas Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith was putting before the voters.

That idea was picked up by a group of young people in Calgary who, in a video that's gone viral on YouTube, rather hysterically begged Albertans to vote for anyone but Wildrose. The creators of the ad say neither Redford's PC Party of Alberta nor any other party was behind the ad, but the political operatives on the Wildrose campaign bus are taking that with a grain of salt.

And the attacks on Wildrose continued Thursday when, literally 30 seconds into a leaders' debate here, Liberal Leader Raj Sherman called the candidates for Wildrose "a bunch of bigots."

Redford, in the debate, was more subtle but her message was clear. When leaders were asked what they'd do about abortion and same-sex marriage, she replied darkly that, "I think it's very unfortunate in this campaign that we are talking about these issues... The rest of the country is watching us."

The PC Party of Alberta et al are making the most of the discovery of two Wildrose candidates who said something that leader Danielle Smith likely wishes they had not. As a result, one candidate has been labelled a homophobic bigot and the other a racist.

In 2004, Martin won a minority by convincing at least some voters that Harper was scary. He went back to that well in 2006 - remember the "soldiers in the streets" TV ads? - only to find voters were not buying it. Harper won.

Still, those Liberal scare tactics seemed only to infuriate Albertans who elected a clean slate of Conservatives in 2006. And now, less than a year after 67% of Albertans voted for Harper and the federal Conservatives in the 2011 federal election, the Progressive Conservatives believe that frightening Albertans is their path to holding on to power.

Preston Manning is not impressed. In an editorial published here Thursday, he did not endorse Wildrose explicitly but took a sharp shot at Redford's PCs, calling for end to the "the negative attacks and historical inaccuracies that have characterized the government's campaign in the last 10 days."

Instead, Manning argued that when Albertans vote Monday, they should ask themselves "whether the time has come for a wholesale spring housecleaning at the Alberta legislature."

With four days ago, pollsters find an inordinately high number of undecided voters - as many as one in four. Will those who've yet to be decide be frightened to stay with the status quo or will they have Manning's courage to clean?

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....83147.html

[RCO]

Wildrose could win a majority: Poll

By Bill Kaufmann, QMI Agency



CALGARY - The Wildrose Party appears poised to win Monday’s election -- possibly with a majority, states a fresh poll.

The survey of decided Alberta voters conducted Wednesday and Thursday shows the Wildrose with a 41% to 31% lead over the PCs -- almost completely due to the softening of support in Calgary where it’s fallen by half over the course of a week, said Dr. David Coletto of Abacus Data.

“Most of the change we’ve seen overall has happened in Calgary ... Wildrose is trending down only in Calgary,” he said, while noting Wildrose still has a 15-point advantage over the PCs in the Stampede city.

According to an Abacus poll from a week earlier, the Tories trailed the Wildrose province-wide by 17%.

But Coletto said while their main foes have dived, the PCs haven’t managed to pick up much of that slack.

The NDP and Liberals have held their own and even slightly increased their level of support, at 13% and 12% respectively, states the poll.


“It could be the undecided voters are starting to make their decision ... it’s gotten so negative and personal now, lots of New Democrats and Liberals are saying, ‘Wait a minute -- I’m not going to vote Tory just because they want me to,’” Coletto said.

The loss of Wildrose support could have been triggered, Coletto said, by racial and homophobic issues surrounding two party candidates, and leader Danielle Smith’s refusal to publicly censure them.

But the bottom line is that, if the latest numbers hold, the Wildrose are headed to a majority.

One calculation of Abacus’ numbers has them winning 59 out of 87 seats, he said.

“It’s the Wildrose’s to lose -- the Tories are moving up but it’s not enough,” he said.

On Thursday, PC strategist Stephen Carter conceded his party’s doing badly in rural southern Alberta but that overall, the Tories have enough momentum to clinch a minority win.

Coletto wouldn’t dismiss Carter’s contention.

“If it continues to happen for the next two days, it’s trouble for the Wildrose,” he said.

The latest Abacus poll shows the PCs leading in only one major market -- Edmonton -- where the Wildrose trails by seven percentage points.

Carter’s Wildrose counterpart, Vitor Marciano said the PCs are running out of road.

“There’s not much left for them to defend,” he said.

The negative campaign has taken its toll on both front-running leaders, Coletto said, with Smith’s favourability falling by 5% and Redford’s by 4%.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.





http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Po.....60931.html

[machiavelli]

WHERE IS CANADA'S GENUINE SMALL-C FISCAL & SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE :wink: ?

Its disparaging to us authentic small-c fiscal and social conservatives that Alberta, the province broadly considered the most conservative Canadian province, can't produce a legitimate small-c fiscal and social conservative party leader.

It is not reassuring for veritable conservatives when both the Federal Conservative party and Alberta's so-called conservative party are CINOs.

[Progressive Tory]

[RCO]

( there allready voting , at least alot have )


Alberta sets advance poll record

3:37 pm, April 22nd, 2012


Jack and Jenny Oatway make their way to the polling station at Centre 2000 on Friday April 20, 2012.

Credits: ADAM JACKSON/DAILY HERALD-TRIBUNE/QMI AGENCY


DAVE DORMER | QMI AGENCY


CALGARY -- Voters flooded into advance polling stations ahead of Monday's provincial election, setting an early bird record, elections officials said.

"They've been steady and regular for all three days," Drew Westwater, director of election operations and communications at Elections Alberta, said of advance polls that ran from Thursday to Saturday.

"I can safely say we've had more voters in this election than we had in 2008, when we had the highest number of advance poll numbers."

But that doesn't necessarily mean voter turnout will be high on election day too, said Westwater.

"Also (in 2008) we had our worst turnout for the Monday so it's not always an indicator," he said. "The same ones who would vote just came in earlier."

New rules enacted during the last vote removed the need for voters to have a legitimate reason for using the advanced poll.

"Work commitments were taking you out of town or you were going to be away on polling day, you had to put a reason down and fill out a form when you voted in an advanced poll but that's been removed now," he said. "It just makes it easier and more convenient."

Polls are open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday, but Westwater suggested going early.

"If they all wait until suppertime to go vote, which most people typically do, we will service them, they will get to vote, but there may be a bit of a lineup," he said. "If you go in the afternoon it's usually very quiet at the polls."

To vote on Monday, you have to be at least 18, a Canadian citizen and have lived in Alberta since Oct. 23, 2011.

"If you're on the list of electors, you don't need ID, you just come give your name and address," Westwater said.

"If you're not registered, you can still vote, you just have to bring ID and fill out a form to register as an elector."

ID must be government issued and list an address showing you live in the riding.


http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....53743.html

[RCO]

Wildrose eyes majority as Alberta heads to the polls
Jen Gerson Apr 23, 2012 – 7:45 AM ET


Postmedia News
Left: Widrose leader Danielle Smith made a campaign stop at the Dashmesh Cultural Centre where she met with members of Calgary's Sikh community on April 22, 2012 during the final day of campaigning. Right: Conservative leader Alison Redford speaks during the 2012 Calgary-Elbow all candidates forum at Mount Royal University in Calgary, Alberta

Comments Email Twitter inShare0Calgary proved the last battleground for Alberta’s votes as the province’s most contentious election campaign in recent memory drew to a close Sunday.

The leaders of the long ruling Progressive Conservative party and the upstart Wildrose Party spent their last day before the election in the province’s largest city: Calgary holds 25 seats and, possibly, the key to a majority government.

Premier Alison Redford, who stands to lose her party’s 41-year dynasty when Albertans go to the polls on Monday, spent Sunday touring constituencies across the city.

Anecdotal reports from Elections Alberta indicated high turnout at advanced polls, which, Ms. Redford said, indicates Albertans understand the stakes of the outcome.

“This election will define our future, and it will also describe to the rest of Canada who we truly are and what we want to be,” she said.

The latest polls show Wildrose leading the PCs and on the verge of a majority government.

Related
Alberta provincial election results 2012

Alberta Election 2012: The candidates

Alison Redford not ‘informed’ that Gary Mar was cleared of ethics violation despite mention in Alberta debate

Alberta election video encourages progressives to ‘vote strategically’ for PCs in bid to stop Wildrose

National Post editorial board endorses Danielle Smith and the Wildrose in the Alberta election

The Premier gave her final pitch to voters in a constituency that runs along the north side of the Bow River currently held by Dr. David Swann, the popular former leader of the Alberta Liberals.

A few dozen local campaign volunteers arrived to cheer her campaign, next to a food truck giving away gourmet ice cream. Ms. Redford called the campaign so far unlike anything she’d ever seen in Alberta.

She also took a parting shot at Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, who said in a debate last week that she didn’t believe the science to be settled on climate change.

“I don’t understand what [Alberta's economic development] looks like if the person who is trying to grow those markets and talk to people around the world about what environmental sustainability looks like denies climate change,” Ms. Redford said.

“I don’t know what that does to the Alberta economy. I don’t know what that does in terms of, generally, the economic development of our country.”

Ms. Smith also made a bid for the Calgary vote Sunday, stopping at several locations to meet with supporters, including at a local cultural centre.

At a rally of hundreds of people in the Northwest quadrant of Calgary, Ms. Smith told Postmedia reporters: “It’s up to Albertans to decide which direction they want to go.”

Although poised for a majority, many of the constituencies are “neck and neck” races, she added.

“We have, I think, identified about 23 ridings where we know it’s a real fight. That’s why I’ve been spending so much time over the last two days stopping in and talking to candidates, talking to their campaign teams, telling them to get out, because every single vote is going to count. It could go either way.”

The PCs released its list of campaign donors on Sunday: the party raised $1.8-million since the writ dropped on March 26. By comparison, Wildrose garnered $2.3-million in the same period.

David Taras, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, said the race was now a matter of mathematics. However, the final seat totals were tricky to predict. The province redrew its electoral boundaries in 2010, transforming previous results into unreliable portents in this round of voting.

The change also increased the number of seats in the legislature to 87. That means the Wildrose would need at least 44 seats to win a majority.

There are 43 seats outside Calgary and Edmonton. Of those, 30 are situated in rural areas, Mr. Taras said.

“Presumably, if polls are half-right, Wildrose has a big lead in rural Alberta,” he said.

Even if the party were to take 30 seats in rural and small-city Alberta – a conservative estimate – they’d need to win only 14 seats in Calgary and Edmonton to take the province, Mr. Taras said.

Edmonton, which has traditionally been a hotbed of progressive support, is also facing several four-and even fiveway races, making it highly unpredictable.

In Calgary, however, Wildrose is polling well ahead of the Tories.

The Tories, on the other hand, must hold Calgary if they are to prevent a majority Wildrose government.

“Calgary is the place you gotta win, and that’s the difference,” he said.

However, some polling data suggest even Ms. Redford’s affluent downtown seat in Calgary-Elbow may not be safe.

“She’s in the crosshairs,” Mr. Taras said.

Ms. Redford denied her constituency was so divided, saying she had good support from the community.

“There’s been a lot of chatter in this campaign and I’d just ask you to consider the source.”

To make the results even harder to predict, Calgary has been the site of enormous growth since the last election. The population has increased by more than 10% since 2006 alone.

“The electorate of 2008 is not the electorate of now. There are lots of new families, lots of change. Even [an established constituency like] Calgary Buffalo is very transient,” Mr. Taras said.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....the-polls/

[Progressive Tory]

Very interesting so far.

[Cool Blue]

can't believe the PCs are doing so well.

How could the polls have been so far off?

[RCO]

Social issues sank Wildrose during campaign, experts say

Kathryn Blaze Carlson Apr 24, 2012 – 7:57 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 24, 2012 10:42 PM ET


Gavin Young/Postmedia News
Wildrose party leader Danielle Smith speaks to about 150 supporters at one of her final campaign rallies in Calgary.

Comments Email Twitter inShare6The rise and fall of the Wildrose Party confirms a truth about Canadian politics, political strategists say: Social conservatism has become an “electorally toxic” Pandora’s box that parties should actively avoid on the campaign trail.

“It’s the social conservatism that does them in,” said Faron Ellis, a Lethbridge College political scientist who authored a book on the rise of the Reform party. “Until you draw a clear line in the sand over which you’re not going to let social conservatives drag your party, it becomes electorally toxic.”

Related
'Devastated' federal Tories should be relieved after Wildrose loss

Alberta election winners: A riding-by-riding map breakdown of who won where

Alberta election winners: A riding-by-riding map breakdown of who won where

Andrew Coyne: Why I'm no longer making election predictions after Alberta

Wildrose needs to do ‘some soul searching,’ revisit policies after loss to Tories: Danielle Smith

The sort of social conservatism that believes in traditional marriage and condemns abortion, among other issues, obviously still has a place in Canadian politics — social conservatives make up the ruling federal Conservative party’s base, even though Prime Minister Stephen Harper has vowed not to legislate controversial moral values. But political strategists say lobbing those issues to the fore of an electoral campaign is a risky, and oftentimes losing, proposition.

Alberta Election results

PC 61 seats
Wildrose 17 seats
NDP 4 seats
Liberals 5 seats
A series of polls suggested Danielle Smith’s fledgling party was poised to topple the Progressive Conservatives’ 41-year dynasty, but her Wildrose fell flat after what became known as “bozo eruptions” by inexperienced candidates that suggested the party would wage culture wars.

“The lesson here is that the Alberta voter, and certainly I think the Canadian voter, has decided that issues that have already been settled are best left alone, particularly social issues,” said Goldy Hyder, a senior vice-president with Hill+Knowlton Strategies who knows both Ms. Smith and Premier Alison Redford from his 25 years living in Alberta.


REUTERS/Todd Korol
Alison Redford in Calgary Monday
“You’re not going to get a [far-right, socially conservative] Tea Party president in the United States, are you? There’s probably a realization here that if you couldn’t elect one in Alberta, where could you elect one?”

Prof. Ellis said the Wildrose Party was doomed the moment it tread into social conservatism without assuring voters it had limits. Ms. Smith chose not to draw a “clear line in the sand” and instead espoused free speech and freedom of religion, refusing to condemn candidates for making bigoted and racially charged comments: One pastor wrote in his blog that gays would burn in a “lake of fire,” while another MLA-hopeful said he had an advantage as a white candidate in an ethnically diverse Calgary constituency.


CLICK TO ENLARGE
“Once you get started talking about [morally divisive issues], you’re just one set of loose-lips away from a disaster like ‘lake of fire,’ ” said Geoff Norquay, a public policy and communications specialist with Earnscliffe Strategy Group. “Once you start linking lakes of fire with public policy, you’re lost. Gone. It’s over. I can’t look into the future, but I think parties would be well-advised to stay away from those issues.”

When Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives last fall found themselves answering questions on the campaign trail about a Christian political website that called leader Tim Hudak “solidly pro-life,” the party chose to emphatically declare it would not reopen the abortion debate. His attacks on a proposed Liberal tax break for businesses who hired immigrants — Mr. Hudak called such newcomers “foreign workers” — was seen as contributing to the Ontario PCs’ defeat.

Link Byfield, a longtime social conservative activist who lost his bid as a Wildrose candidate on Monday, said it is “too early to tell” whether most Canadian voters are turned off by social conservatism on the hustings, but said the so-called bozo comments “won’t have helped” his untested party in the quest for its first mandate.

A year ago, Mr. Byfield said Mr. Harper’s promise not to open the debate on abortion or gay marriage made social conservatives appear “eccentric” and conceded that politicians today tend to avoid “whatever makes people angry.”


CLICK TO ENLARGE
Conservative strategist Tim Powers said Monday’s election confirmed for Mr. Harper’s Conservatives that politicians “can’t split hairs” on socially divisive issues, and that parties have to take definitive positions on matters that could cause social outrage. “There can’t be any wiggle room,” said Mr. Powers, vice-president at Summa Strategies. “There can’t be any doubt. People want to have a level of comfort the person they’re going to elect is a competent, fair individual and they’re not going to do any great social engineering.”

Mr. Powers said that is especially true for a new party such as the Wildrose, which has never governed and therefore has no track record proving it will not wage culture wars in Alberta. Mr. Powers said took Mr. Harper four elections to win a majority, but not before his party stumbled in 2004 when former Tory MP Randy White suggested using the “notwithstanding” clause in Canada’s Constitution to protect the traditional definition of marriage as the union of a man and a woman.

“I think the Alberta election says a lot to politicians in general: People want them to focus on economics and government services,” Mr. Hyder said.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....rose-loss/

[RCO]

Wildrose needs to do ‘some soul searching,’ revisit policies after loss to Tories: Smith

Keith Gerein, Postmedia News Apr 24, 2012 – 6:33 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 24, 2012 7:17 PM ET

REUTERS/Mike Sturk

Wildrose party leader Danielle Smith reacts after her party lost the provincial election to the Progressive Conservatives Monday night. “The government still has the same problem today as they had yesterday,” Smith said Tuesday.
CALGARY — While Danielle Smith and 16 other Wildrose members are headed to the Alberta legislature this spring, some of the party’s more controversial policies may not be coming with them, Smith says.

“We have some soul searching to do as a party,” she said Tuesday, a day after a provincial election defeat that saw Wildrose almost shut out of the province’s major cities and northern Alberta.

“Our members have now seen that some of our policies were rejected by Albertans, quite frankly,” she said in an interview. “We will be revisiting some of those. You can’t run a government if you don’t get sanction from the people.”

Related


Asked which policies in particular were up for debate, Smith mentioned the “Alberta Agenda” items that call for the province to establish its own pension plan and to replace the RCMP with a provincial police force. Such ideas were touted by a group of conservative thinkers in a famous letter written a decade ago that called for Alberta to build a “firewall” — a term that was used by the PCs to attack Wildrose during the campaign.

Alberta Election results

PC 61 seats
Wildrose 17 seats
NDP 4 seats
Liberals 5 seats
Smith also mentioned her party members’ endorsement of conscience rights, which would allow a marriage commissioner refusing to perform a same-sex marriage, or a Catholic doctor to decline writing a prescription for birth control.

“There may also be a stronger statement to make about climate change and our policy around greenhouse gas emissions,” she said.

Smith said she expects such policies will be on the agenda when Wildrose holds its annual general meeting this fall.

In the meantime, Smith said her party will use its new official Opposition status to press the Progressive Conservative government in areas where Wildrose has more general support from Albertans.

When Smith stands up across from premier-elect Alison Redford during question period, her topics will include instilling more fiscal discipline, reducing wait times in hospitals, and better accountability on the pay to legislative members.


CLICK TO ENLARGE
“The government still has the same problem today as they had yesterday,” she said. “They don’t have a realistic budget and now they have all these new spending promises to keep. Frankly, I don’t see any way that Premier Redford can balance the budget.”

The group accompanying her to the legislature has just two members — Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth — who previously served as legislative members.

While Smith acknowledged there will be a learning curve for her caucus, she said inexperience will be overcome by talent.

“One of my disappointments is that we didn’t get to feature our candidates much during the campaign, which I think contributed to the result,” she said. “I don’t think people fully realized that we had such terrific candidates but they will get to see it in the legislature.”

She said she will announce a shadow cabinet around the same time Redford announces her new cabinet.

Postmedia News

http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....ose-party/