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 Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 12:10 pm Post subject: Nanos & EKOS: Wha? |
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I got a chuckle this morning after reviewing the latest EKOS poll and then the latest Nanos polls immediately afterward.
Nanos:
February 25th to 29th
National:
CPC: 35.7
LPC: 29.7
NDP: 25
BQ: 4.9
GPC: 3.4
Source: http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....allotE.pdf
EKOS
February 21st to 29th
National:
CPC: 31.4
NDP: 29.2
LPC:21.7
GPC: 8.3
BQ: 6.0
Source: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp.....2_2012.pdf |
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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Goodness knows my stance on EKOS polling.
These are the same folks who had the Tories @ 33.9 on May 1st down from the day prior @ 34.6 whereas Nanos, Forum, and HD had the Tories trending upward and of course we all know what the only poll that mattered ended up looking like.
However I simply cannot wrap my head around a 8% spread for LPC support between Nanos and EKOS. |
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | Goodness knows my stance on EKOS polling.
These are the same folks who had the Tories @ 33.9 on May 1st down from the day prior @ 34.6 whereas Nanos, Forum, and HD had the Tories trending upward and of course we all know what the only poll that mattered ended up looking like.
However I simply cannot wrap my head around a 8% spread for LPC support between Nanos and EKOS. |
Nanos usually has Liberal support higher. |
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | Goodness knows my stance on EKOS polling.
These are the same folks who had the Tories @ 33.9 on May 1st down from the day prior @ 34.6 whereas Nanos, Forum, and HD had the Tories trending upward and of course we all know what the only poll that mattered ended up looking like.
However I simply cannot wrap my head around a 8% spread for LPC support between Nanos and EKOS. |
Nanos usually has Liberal support higher. |
Higher is one thing;
An 8% spread over a similar polling period is another.
I very rarely pay too much attention to EKOS and COMPAS as they are normally the outers, however nearly every other polling agency has the NDP in free fall with the LPC sucking up the balance and EKOS has the LPC @ 21.7%? |
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Forum Research released a poll with the Liberals at 25% the NDP at 28% and the Conservatives at 37%. I'd say the Liberals and NDP are pretty much tied. |
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beaver
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 231
  
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 9:48 pm Post subject: |
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This is pretty blunt, but EKOS is just pure CRAP. Their polls are so inaccurate, not to mention that they are lead by nasty Liberal partisan Frank Graves who called for a culture war.
Nanos is definitely one of the more accurate polling firms, but they often underestimate CPC support by a little and overestimate LPC support by a little. So based on their numbers, I'd say it's more like:
CPC: 37-38
LPC: 28
NDP: 25
BQ: 5-6
GPC: 3-4 |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | Forum Research released a poll with the Liberals at 25% the NDP at 28% and the Conservatives at 37%. I'd say the Liberals and NDP are pretty much tied. |
That's strange?
Didn't Forum release the poll that resulted in the 308 folks predicting the NDP with 4x seats in Quebec? |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | Forum Research released a poll with the Liberals at 25% the NDP at 28% and the Conservatives at 37%. I'd say the Liberals and NDP are pretty much tied. |
That's strange?
Didn't Forum release the poll that resulted in the 308 folks predicting the NDP with 4x seats in Quebec? |
Forum released a Quebec exclusive poll which showed the NDP in third, this nation wide poll has them doing better. |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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| beaver wrote: | This is pretty blunt, but EKOS is just pure CRAP. Their polls are so inaccurate, not to mention that they are lead by nasty Liberal partisan Frank Graves who called for a culture war.
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I don't understand people attacking Graves, do you really think he'd jeopardize the legitimacy of his company? As well he has also admitted to donating to the Conservatives.
It's funny nobody attacks Allan Gregg for being partisan. |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 1:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | beaver wrote: | This is pretty blunt, but EKOS is just pure CRAP. Their polls are so inaccurate, not to mention that they are lead by nasty Liberal partisan Frank Graves who called for a culture war.
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I don't understand people attacking Graves, do you really think he'd jeopardize the legitimacy of his company? As well he has also admitted to donating to the Conservatives.
It's funny nobody attacks Allan Gregg for being partisan. |
I think the knocks on EKOS are fair;
Going after Graves personally, or trying to determine any motives are ultimately moot.
By EKOS own admission,
Something went wrong during the 2011 polling:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/in.....e-17-2011/
And its not like 2008 was much better where EKOS has the Tories @ 34.8 the day before the election compared to the 37.6 they pulled in
Since 2008 EKOS polling seemingly under-represents CPC support in the same manner that COMPAS polling over-represents CPC support.
The reasons behind it in my opinion are moot, however the flaw in methodology seems pretty clear and pretty consistent, and when you have a methodology that has shown the same flaw twice when it was verifiable and there have been no major changes to the collection methodology why would we assume anything but the same inaccuracy they have displayed prior? |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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| I think their polling is flawed but I don't think Geaves is personally tweaking results after they come in to reduce the CPC and raise the Greens and Liberals. |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | I think their polling is flawed but I don't think Geaves is personally tweaking results after they come in to reduce the CPC and raise the Greens and Liberals. |
As I said;
My opinion of Graves, or anyone's for that matter are ultimately moot.
I tend to agree he isn't trying to hatch some grand conspiracy,
however his system regardless of anyone's opinion of the guy has under-polled the Conservatives in the two instances we could verify them prior to the elections in 2008 and 2011 and since to the best of my knowledge the methodology on how he collects his data has not changed its not unreasonable that is still the case in polling done today.
My knock on EKOS is with the method of data collection which is proven to be "off" in the recent instances were it could be verified not with the man behind the curtain |
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | I think their polling is flawed but I don't think Geaves is personally tweaking results after they come in to reduce the CPC and raise the Greens and Liberals. |
Really? Do you believe that the CBC is not intentionally biased against the Conservatives too?
Cosmo is right though, it doesn't matter WHY it is happening, all that matters is the fact that EKOS' numbers are proven to be unreliable. |
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RCO
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 1899
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:26 am Post subject: |
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i wouldn't make much out of the ekos numbers for the conservatives as he has often had them lower than they really were and had party really low most of the time during lead up t0 2011 vote .
whats interesting is the difference between ndp and liberal numbers , how does one have the ndp in second and other have liberals in second . i would honeslty think liberals at 20 % a more accurate number for them, 30 % doesn't seem believeable at this time . i think the ndp collapse has been more talk than reality espeically during a leadership race that usually raises a party's profile and % support .
but if anything i don't see the robocalls story sticking around much longer unless the opposition is able to find something to link it to the actual party . it sounds at this time like it was 1 riding ( guelph ) where something illegal happened and a bunch of other ridings where its just bitter liberal and ndp supporters making accusations against the conservatives they can't even prove |
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:12 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | Forum Research released a poll with the Liberals at 25% the NDP at 28% and the Conservatives at 37%. I'd say the Liberals and NDP are pretty much tied. |
PT,
I have been searching the interweb for that poll and I cant seem to find it, I am really curious to FR's Ontario and Quebec results, if you have it handy could I trouble you to link it for me?
Thanks! |
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