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 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | Saw on twitter today that Martin Cauchon has a hospitality tweet and the convention. |
I get the feeling the Liberals wont be taking a chance on a leader who needs a seat. |
Who knows? Denis Coderre is likely to step down next year so Cauchon could run in a by-election there, or possibly in Mount Royal if Irwin Cotler does step down. That said it might be smart for them to have a leader outside the House for a while. Bob Rae is obviously super strong in the House and could easily carry on as Liberal leader there, while a non elected leader could travel the country building support. I don't know how his election defeat, or that of the other former MPs would effect them. Harper and Layton have both been defeated in elections, though Harper's case was a bit different.
I don't know how popular Cauchon is in Quebec, or how well known he is there or in the rest of Canada since he's been out of politics a few years.
Peter Fonseca's name has not been brought up but he might be someone who could possibly do well in Ontario, I don't know much abut him. While he was narrowly defeated in his election bid he likely wouldn't have trouble if he ran in the seat again to get elected, especially as leader. I don't know if he is even that well known or if he is popular but he's young and got the background.
I noticed in the National Post that there are calls for Justin Trudeau to reconsider running for the leadership. Personally I don't find he's proven himself in Ottawa, though he's a great speaker and able to engage people. He has also been a frontrunner in leadership polling. He wasn't given much a critic portfolio by Bob Rae and I wonder if this was on purpose.
I don't know if he has done this or not but it has been mentioned that Rae can use his portfolio to his advantage in his bid for the permanent leadership, which everyone obviously knows. While it's brought up how he can use it to boost his profile I have only seen one article, I think, that mentions that he can basically undermine other MPs who may seek the leadership. He decides the critic portfolios, Trudeau got a low profile role, and Dominic LeBlanc has been criticized for his lack of profile since May, Rae decides when he speaks. |
Denis Coderre and Martin Cauchon hate each-other;
I am not convinced that Coderre would do anything to assist Cauchon getting back into Parliament as he was a huge roadblock in Cauchon securing the nomination in Outremont.
Peter Fonseca is a good guy with good values;
The problem is he is the poster child for the Federal Liberal's defeat in the 905's. Mississauga East—Cooksville was the amongst the safest seats in Ontario for the Liberals.
Albina Guarnieri held that riding (or a similar one as the district was re-drawn) since 1988, when she retired this was suppose to be a simple victory for Peter Fonseca, to the best of my knowledge the CPC didn't even have a riding association in this riding for a while, and Peter Fonseca lost to someone I had never heard of till election day.
What makes matters worse is that Peter Fonseca held that same riding Provincially since 2003 dominating it in nearly every election contested, and it was retained by the Provincial Liberals in October.
He would need to get back into the Commons somehow before he could be considered a leadership candidate.
I think you are correct; Bob Rae is neutralizing his potential competition within the Commons and I have no issue with that. I am much more concerned about LeBlanc in a general then Bob Rae. |
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| Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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I think the article largely summarizes the discussion we had a few months ago;
Too young now, too low profile now, however he has had little issue with re-election and is young enough to contest several elections. |
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:22 am Post subject: |
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While Fonseca's loss was surprising and definitely a blow to him, Harper and Layton both lost elections. Harper's case was a bit different but Layton was high profile and ran in a seat that had once been an NDP stronghold. Peggy Nash also lost her seat and is now a frontrunner in the NDP leadership.
It seems Bob Rae won't be going anywhere anytime soon. Jim Balsillie is now out of a job though and has donated to the Liberals in the past. |
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | While Fonseca's loss was surprising and definitely a blow to him, Harper and Layton both lost elections. Harper's case was a bit different but Layton was high profile and ran in a seat that had once been an NDP stronghold. Peggy Nash also lost her seat and is now a frontrunner in the NDP leadership.
It seems Bob Rae won't be going anywhere anytime soon. Jim Balsillie is now out of a job though and has donated to the Liberals in the past. |
I recall Layton running in 1993 in Rosedale (Now Toronto Centre) which had been a Liberal/Tory battleground throughout its history, but I cannot recall it ever being NDP?
Harper ran in 1988 and lost running for a party that won zero seats in that election, I may be splitting hairs here but I see a huge difference in both situations compared to Fonseca. Even Nash lost her seat to a high profile Liberal.
Layton, Nash and Harper lost to Rockstars (Bill Graham, Gerard Kennedy and Jim Hawkes respectively) whereas Fonseca lost one of the safest 905 ridings the Liberals had to a nobody who i don't even believe outspent him campaigning.
At least when the Liberals lost Vaughan (easily the safest non Toronto/Montreal Liberal riding in Canada) they lost it to Julian Fantino and ran a nobody and it was still close.
I think at a minimum the Liberals need a leader who can dominate their seat and not have to pull a John Tory and spend the last week of a campaign there trying to win.
I tend to agree that Rae looks to be the guy;
Things are about to get interesting. |
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Jack Layton ran in Toronto Danforth in 1997 as well, at the time it was known as Broadview—Greenwood. |
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | Jack Layton ran in Toronto Danforth in 1997 as well, at the time it was known as Broadview—Greenwood. |
Ah yes; almost forgot that one.
Again its a pretty different situation he lost against a two term incumbent who had just stepped down temporarily to sit as an independent Liberal over the GST less then a year prior who was wildly popular in his riding over it.
Its also historically been a fairly close riding between the Liberals and NDP, whereas Mississauga East-Cooksville has been a Liberal route in nearly every election in its existence.
Fonseca wasn't a popular city Councillor who picked up the Liberal banner to run in 2011, he was the MPP who had dominated that riding for two straight elections who was appointed to run in an existing Liberal riding and in a riding the Liberals had been historically winning with > 50% popular vote against a Conservative who I had never heard of till election night. |
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:35 pm Post subject: |
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I think his former success shows though that his defeat wasn't really his fault, there were many incumbents in the riding who had strong numbers and lost to. Ignatieff screwed them all over. Anyways Fonseca probably has know plans of running, but I remember thinking that he might have the leadership on his mind when he left provincial politics for federal. Though I'm sure he never thought McGuinty would survive.
Jane Taber mentioned that Jean Marc Fournier's name was mentioned at the convention. |
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 10:31 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | I think his former success shows though that his defeat wasn't really his fault, there were many incumbents in the riding who had strong numbers and lost to. Ignatieff screwed them all over. Anyways Fonseca probably has know plans of running, but I remember thinking that he might have the leadership on his mind when he left provincial politics for federal. Though I'm sure he never thought McGuinty would survive.
Jane Taber mentioned that Jean Marc Fournier's name was mentioned at the convention. |
Ignatieff didn't help matters;
However if you are suppose to be a popular MPP with roots in the community you are seeking election as MP in a riding the Conservatives did not take seriously and lose then I have to question his campaigning tactics and his political savvy. The Liberals are not going up against Joe Clark in 2015.
If Fonseca couldn't win his own riding when that is all he was doing during the campaign in 2011 I have to question how functional he would be as a leader of a party.
Jean Marc Fournier is an interesting name;
Not as leader, but certainly as someone who could win the Liberals Châteauguay—Saint-Constant.
The more I look at the political landscape the more I realize that maybe the Liberals need to stop focusing on the solely the leader and start working on their ground game.
They are a party of 35 MP's and in a case like this every seat counts
Fournier is a heavy hitter who can win you a seat the Liberals have never really been competitive in, to cite a bad example he could basically be the LPC's version of Denis Lebel.
Last edited by cosmostein on Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:55 am; edited 1 time in total |
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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Denis Coderre has also said he will either run for leader or for mayor.
I don't know what to think of him. |
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hatrock
Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Posts: 489
  
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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The Liberals have nobody.
All Bob Rae can do is syphon off votes from the NDP to split the vote even more. |
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:08 pm Post subject: |
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| hatrock wrote: | The Liberals have nobody.
All Bob Rae can do is syphon off votes from the NDP to split the vote even more. |
I think there are capable people but Rae's just trying to shut them up. I saw somewhere recently that some Conservatives are worried about Dominic LeBlanc becoming leader. He's been totally unimpressive since Rae became leader but he was stronger in the last parliament and could possibly be an effective leader. |
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Bob Rae is making a special announcement tomorrow. |
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| Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:37 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | Bob Rae is making a special announcement tomorrow. |
Joint press conference with Tom Mulcair?
LOL |
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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| The Liberal executive are choosing the rules for the election this weekend. According to CBC if (when) Bob Rae steps down to enter the race Dominic LeBlanc is expected to replace him as interim leader. So I don't know what happened to his leadership ambitions but they must be gone if CBC is correct, it's also not the first time I saw it mentioned that he would not run. |
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