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 Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: |
The PCs would probably be worse off in Ontario if McGuinty went federal, a new Liberal leader could probably form a majority provincially. |
Its hard to say;
It would largely depend on who became the new Premier. |
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RCO
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 1952
  
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| are there even any serious contenders for this position ? somehow i think Bob Rae is trying to figure out a way to keep the position unless some other candidates come forward i don't see anyone else becoming liberal leader anytime soon |
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| Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:35 pm Post subject: |
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| RCO wrote: | | are there even any serious contenders for this position ? somehow i think Bob Rae is trying to figure out a way to keep the position unless some other candidates come forward i don't see anyone else becoming liberal leader anytime soon |
I think Rae will try and run but he will be challenged. If he stays on and keeps the Liberals afloat in 2015, Robert Ghiz will probably be a name to watch then. |
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| Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| RCO wrote: | | are there even any serious contenders for this position ? somehow i think Bob Rae is trying to figure out a way to keep the position unless some other candidates come forward i don't see anyone else becoming liberal leader anytime soon |
It depends how you define serious.
The biggest threat to the Tories is a Liberal Leader who is living in the realities of 2011.
The Liberals are the second opposition party; if the Bloc's number continue to rise and they win back 40 seats in Quebec the Liberals could find themselves as the third opposition party.
They also have a terrible fundrasing infastrucure, and are about to put their best and brightest into debt with a leadership contest.
If the next leader of the Liberals realizes this is a rebuilding project and not a retooling project they could be a major factor by 2015, however as long as they see the CPC as the "target" and not the NDP and BQ then the CPC should be riding smooth till 2019. |
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| Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 10:50 am Post subject: |
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Dalton McGunity is a massive threat;
Because he instantly gives the 416 back to the LPC,
All of a sudden the Liberals go from being a few scattered MP's across the country to a party that once again has a base, and from that base can go hard after the 905 belt where McGunity did very well, and the Tories need to secure a majority without Quebec. |
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| Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Harper couldn't form a majority with McGuinty as leader. |
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| Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | Harper couldn't form a majority with McGuinty as leader. |
That is the theory;
However before we get too concerned we need to keep in mind that based on the leadership index the voters of Ontario seem to feel:
Harper > McGunity > Hudak > Rae > Trumel > Horwath
McGunity at least gives you footing in the 905's its somewhere to start.
This next leadership race shouldn't be about winning government in 2015, it should be about forming three after 2019. |
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| Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | This next leadership race shouldn't be about winning government in 2015, it should be about forming three after 2019. |
Even that's probably to soon. With that said I don't think the party should just look at the next election as one they can't win and choose a leader who can make some seat gains, like Rae. While it's unlikely there is always the chance that the Conservatives could become unpopular, there might be some controversy, who knows? The Liberals need to become the alternative again. |
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| Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | This next leadership race shouldn't be about winning government in 2015, it should be about forming three after 2019. |
Even that's probably to soon. With that said I don't think the party should just look at the next election as one they can't win and choose a leader who can make some seat gains, like Rae. While it's unlikely there is always the chance that the Conservatives could become unpopular, there might be some controversy, who knows? The Liberals need to become the alternative again. |
The Liberals have to be careful to sit back and wait for a controversy;
They have been waiting since January 24th 2006 for that golden opportunity, and as we saw with Preimer McGunity in Ontario a majority government timeline tends to wash away sins
If Rae was five years younger then by all means;
The problem is he would be unlikely to lead the party in 2019 which gives the Liberals another unknown commodity opting for votes.
The Liberals need consistency more then anything. |
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| Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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The new Nanos poll is huge for the Liberals, I'm sure if they can maintain support in at least the high 20's for the next year they will attract much more credible candidates.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....allotE.pdf
The Liberals are now leading the Conservatives in Ontario with 38.8%, compared to 37.2%, even though Bob Rae's personal numbers are down. If Rae's personal numbers remain low, and the party's numbers stay where they are, it would give the party a good reason to tell Rae he's not the reason they are leading and that a new leader will boost the numbers higher. If Rae's own numbers improve it will give him more momentum to remain leader.
It should become easier to attract leadership candidates as well. Liberals are saying Rae's job should be to look for potential leadership candidates and encourage them to run, which is what Graham did as interim leader.
The party has also opened nominations in Toronto Danforth, I don't know if anyone has come forward though. The NDP are now under 20% in Ontario, almost half the Liberals numbers, so this riding might be in serious play. |
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| Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know what to make of the Nanos poll as it seems to be in direct conflict with the Leger and CROP polls pertaining to Quebec?
Either way;
This makes Toronto-Danforth HUGE,
Based on Rae's personal popularity I have to wonder if the rise is due to him or despite him?
The bottom-line is that Toronto-Danforth is the LPC's opportunity to rev up some HUGE momentum in the months leading to the leadership convention, and with numbers like these its just become must win. |
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| Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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It appears that Rae has nothing to do with this recent increase in support, not directly anyways. I think all this talk of party renewal might be helping a little, as well as issues with the NDP.
Some of the numbers in the poll seem off, particularly Quebec. Their Ontario numbers are big for them though, up 13 points since the election. While the number might be a little high they have obviously gained support since May. Their Atlantic numbers aren't great but I don't think they would have any issue rebounding there if they're on an upward trend everywhere else.
I also think it's dumb for people to discredit polls just because an election is so far away. |
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| Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 11:46 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | It appears that Rae has nothing to do with this recent increase in support, not directly anyways. I think all this talk of party renewal might be helping a little, as well as issues with the NDP.
Some of the numbers in the poll seem off, particularly Quebec. Their Ontario numbers are big for them though, up 13 points since the election. While the number might be a little high they have obviously gained support since May. Their Atlantic numbers aren't great but I don't think they would have any issue rebounding there if they're on an upward trend everywhere else.
I also think it's dumb for people to discredit polls just because an election is so far away. |
It depends how you define "discredit"
The Greens always tend to poll at double to triple their actual election today during many polls outside the context of an election, that in itself is enough to question the motives of at least some of the respondents.
They are however a nice barometer of the flow of a nations opinion from month to month, but pressing three to voice your displeasure is always easier then placing the "X"
What the Nanos poll shows me is that Toronto-Danforth is heavily in play, as within the context of polling, that is the only election on the horizon.
The question simply becomes how seriously do the Liberals take it? |
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| Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | The question simply becomes how seriously do the Liberals take it? |
Like you said before the Liberals don't want to come off as arrogant by working Jack's old riding to hard. They've opened nomination so I think there best bet is to get the person nominated in the next few weeks and have them unofficially campaigning by attending lots of events and what not. |
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