[RCO]

( if are heads weren't spining trying to figure out these polls , a new poll just out has the pc's ahead by 9 points , its from abacus data 41 pc , 32 lic , 20 ndp but 22 % of people polled were undecided )


Ont. Tories ahead of the Liberals: Poll

By Kevin Connor, QMI Agency


Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak speaks during a press conference in London on September 13, 2011. (CRAIG GLOVER/QMI Agency)

TORONTO — Ontario's Progressive Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by nine points, according to a poll of decided voters.

The Abacus Data poll found the PCs have the support of 41% of decided Ontario voters followed by the Liberals at 32% and the NDP at 20%.

While the PCs had the largest group of supporters, a check of undecided voters showed they had the lowest room for growth.

The Liberals -- who had the second largest number of committed voters -- and the NDP, had the greatest potential to garner support from undecided voters, according to the poll.

"Instead of the traditional ballot question, where you ask voters who they would vote for if an election was held today, we asked respondents to rate their likelihood of voting for each party on a scale from zero to 10. The objective was to get a more nuanced understanding of voter intentions in the province especially since voter intentions seem to be very fluid," said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.

"We found that among deciders voters, the PCs have a nine-point lead but there is a large pool of undecided voters (22%) that can change the dynamics of the campaign. Among these undecided voters, the Tories have the smallest room to grow which suggests the election is still up for grabs as voters figure out who they will end up voting for."


The pole included 1,002 Canadians interviewed between Sept. 9 to 12 and is accurate within 3.2 percentage points -- 19 times out of 20.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Po.....81391.html

[RCO]

( new angus reid poll 36 pc , 32 lib , 26 ndp , 6 green )


Oct. 6 election is too close to call
Published On Sat Sep 17 2011


DAVE CHIDLEY/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Robert Benzie
Queen’s Park Bureau Chief

The Ontario election is too close to call after Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak’s rocky campaign start has enabled Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty to close the gap, a new Toronto Star-Angus Reid poll suggests.

The Conservatives, who held a 20-point lead in an Angus Reid survey in May, now sits at 36 per cent with the Liberals at 32 per cent.

The New Democrats had 26 per cent and the Green Party trailed at 6 per cent.

“I wouldn’t say (the Tories) have plateaued, but they’ve stalled a little bit,” Jaideep Mukerji, managing director at Angus Reid, said Friday.

Mukerji said that while the desire for change remains very strong — at 60 per cent with only 24 per cent opting for the status quo — Hudak has so far failed to resonate with voters in the Oct. 6 election.

“We’re seeing the race tighten a little bit. The Tories have lost a little bit of ground and the Liberals have gained enough that we’re in a statistical dead heat,” the pollster said.

“It’s definitely still too close to call.”

Ironically, voters appear to agree with Hudak on the issue that dominated the first week of the campaign; the Liberals’ $10,000 tax credit for employers who hired skilled new Canadians. Almost two-thirds of respondents said the program would promote inequality with only 23 per cent approving of it and 14 per cent unsure.

Still, Hudak’s position does not appear to have given him a boost in the polls and may even have hurt his standing in multicultural Toronto and the similarly diverse 905 region.

The poll says that the Tories have 25 per cent support in the city compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals, both behind an impressive 35 per cent for the NDP. In the 905, the Liberals hold an insignificant edge over the Tories, 42 per cent to 39 per cent. The NDP and the Greens are well back at 12 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.

Mukerji said the Tories’ tax credit preoccupation meant they spent the early days of the campaign talking about things other than McGuinty’s harmonized sales tax, eco-fees and rising hydro bills.

“It certainly flared up for a week, but I don’t think this is going to be an election about immigration,” he said.

Angus Reid interviewed 1,001 people between Tuesday and Thursday and results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Two weeks ago, a similar Star-Angus Reid poll had the Conservatives at 38 per cent, Liberals at 31 per cent, the NDP at 24 per cent and Greens at 6 per cent.

That puts more pressure on Hudak in the Sept. 27 televised leaders’ debate, his best opportunity to reintroduce himself to voters.

The poll indicates voters are worried about the direction of Ontario — only 25 per cent say the province is on the “right track” with 39 per cent saying it is on the “wrong track” and 37 per cent unsure.

Still, McGuinty, a two-term premier, said his government has a great story to tell with improvements in health care, education, and green energy.

“I don’t comment on polls. We’ve got a great plan and we’ve got a really strong team and I’m proud of both,” he said at CS Wind in Windsor, which is creating 300 jobs at a wind-turbine tower manufacturer thanks to Samsung’s $7 billion investment in Ontario.

For his part, Hudak isn’t worried about his current lack of momentum.

“I’m feeling great,” the PC leader said Friday at a family home in Don Valley East, a riding the Tories consider up for grabs after the retirement of popular Liberal MPP David Caplan.

But the poll indicates that both he and McGuinty should be wary of Horwath.

She enjoys a 42 per cent approval rating with 27 per cent disapproving compared to McGuinty’s 35 per cent approval and 56 per cent disapproval and Hudak’s 36 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval. Schreiner has an 18 per cent approval and 24 per cent disapproval rating.

“We’ve got a lot of momentum,” Horwath said in Sault Ste Marie.

The poll comes after nominations closed Thursday — there are 656 candidates representing 21 different parties running in 107 ridings.

http://www.thestar.com/news/ca.....-call?bn=1

[RCO]

( a minority is mooming with a large number of ridings till too close to call , most of them liberal seats that are still very close )

Massive poll finds minority looming
Published On Sat Sep 24 2011

"People don’t want four more years of Dalton McGuinty,” PC Leader Tim Hudak said Friday.

CHRIS YOUNG/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Robert Benzie
Queen’s Park Bureau Chief
Ontario is headed toward a minority government for the first time in decades with the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives deadlocked, according to a major new poll.

A Forum Research survey of 40,750 people — one of the largest polling samples in Canadian political history — has the two parties separated by only 107 respondents, each holding 35 per cent. (14,064 said they will vote Liberal, while 13,957 selected the Conservatives.) Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 23 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

“Obviously, no one has closed the deal,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff told the Star on Friday.

Because of the large number of voters surveyed Forum was also able to provide riding-by-riding results. If those numbers were to be repeated on Oct. 6, the Liberals and Tories would be tied at 47 seats with the NDP only holding 13 seats in the 107-member Legislature. However, the results for at least 28 ridings are within the margin of error, so seat predictions are not nearly as reliable as the total sample.

Even so, none of the parties appears likely at this point to be able to win the 54 seats needed for a majority government, which leaves Ontario poised for its first minority government since 1985.

After that vote, the Liberals and NDP signed an accord that toppled the Tories, who had been in power for 42 years.

Bozinoff said it’s still possible for one of the parties to break out and win a majority, noting Tuesday’s provincially televised leaders’ debate could be crucial.

“The Tories are pretty much exactly where they were a month ago and it looks like the Liberals have cut into the NDP vote,” he said, adding Horwath “has not made as much of an impression as she should have.”

“She’s been lost among the other two and it’s almost as if she’s too nice to make an impression.”

The results also mean the race has tightened since Forum’s last poll, which was conducted three weeks ago. Then, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals 35-30, with the NDP at 26 per cent and Greens at 6 per cent.

That means only the veteran Liberal leader has improved his fortunes during the writ period while his three rookie rivals have faltered.

There was a similar pattern when respondents were asked who would make the best premier. McGuinty was selected by 37 per cent, up five points from earlier in the summer. For his part Hudak has held steady in the low 30s and Horwath is in the mid-20s.

This latest interactive voice-response telephone poll — conducted Thursday and Friday and considered accurate to within 0.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 — highlights challenges for both McGuinty and Hudak.

“The Tories need an urban or at least a GTA strategy,” said Bozinoff, pointing out Hudak, whose party hasn’t won a Toronto seat since 1999, is getting shut out in the city and is faring poorly in the 905 region — especially Mississauga.

“Conversely, the Liberals are in need of a rural strategy,” said Bozinoff, warning most of the Grits’ losses appear to be coming to Tories outside major centres.

At dissolution, the Liberals held 70 seats, the Tories 25, the NDP 10, and there were two vacancies that had been Grit constituencies.

Bozinoff said winning the election could hinge on fewer than a dozen ridings where the poll shows the top candidates are within two percentage points of one another.

“Getting out the vote and being organized will count. Both the Liberals and the Tories have to be focusing on the same seven ridings or so,” he said.

“They’re so close, but they’re so far.”

Even with such a huge poll, Bozinoff emphasized there are some questionable results.

The survey suggests the Liberals would win Parkdale-High Park, an NDP stronghold for dynamo Cheri Di Novo, but lose St. Catharines, a seat held since 1977 by popular Grit Jim Bradley. As well, it forecasts the Conservatives picking up Liberal-held Kitchener-Conestoga and Kitchener Centre, but falling short in Tory Elizabeth Witmer’s long-time riding of Kitchener-Waterloo. And McGuinty himself is shown as only slightly ahead in his home riding of Ottawa South, one of the most reliably Liberal ridings in the province.

“There are a few anomalies,” Bozinoff said.

Despite the poll’s indication that Tory support is sputtering in urban Ontario, the PC leader insisted he still has the wind at his back.

“Whether I am here in Thunder Bay, home in Niagara or in Mississauga or Toronto, people don’t want four more years of Dalton McGuinty,” Hudak said after he and Horwath had participated in a debate on northern issues.

Horwath rejected suggestions she had peaked.

“On the contrary. I’m pretty excited about the next couple of days leading up to the debate that happens in Toronto and the last week and a half of the campaign,” she said in Thunder Bay.

Speaking to the Star editorial board, McGuinty said his slow and steady approach appears to be paying off.

“We have run pretty well the same campaign that we have always run,” he said.

“Some of the best advice I ever got was from (former prime minister) Jean Chretien, he said: ‘Don’t watch any TV. Don’t listen to the radio or read any of the papers.’ People tell me what I need to know. Get into a zone and stay there — that is what I am doing.”

With files from Tanya Talaga

How the poll was conducted

Using interactive voice-response technology, Forum Research contacted 40,750 Ontario residents 18 or older by telephone in all 107 provincial ridings on Thursday and Friday.

“This is believed to be the largest poll of its kind ever in Canada,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff, who paid for the poll himself as a public service.

“It’s like a massive town hall meeting for 40,000 Ontarians,” he said of the poll in which respondents press buttons on their phones to indicate their answers to the pollster’s questions.

Forum’s results are considered accurate to within 0.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The number of people polled in each riding ranged from 54 in sparsely populated Timmins-James Bay to 656 in the Toronto constituency of St. Paul’s with most in the range of 400 to 500 people.

That allowed Bozinoff to make the seat projections forecasting a minority Legislature with 47 Liberals, 47 Progressive Conservatives, and 13 New Democrats.

Robert Benzie

Where the race will be won

A poll this large permits meaningful riding-by-riding breakdowns.

And according to the results there are the 28 ridings where one party’s lead is under five percentage points. The election, therefore, is likely to be determined in the following seats where the race is tightest.

Ancaster-Dundas

Beaches-East York

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton-Springdale

Halton

Kitchener Centre

Kitchener-Conestoga

Kitchener-Waterloo

London North Centre

London West

Mississauga East

Mississauga Erindale

Mississauga South

Niagara Falls

Oak Ridges-Markham

Ottawa South

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

St. Catharines

Thornhill

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Timmins-James Bay

Trinity-Spadina

Welland

Windsor-Tecumseh

Windsor West

York Centre

http://www.thestar.com/news/ca.....ty-looming

[Progressive Tory]

Dalton McGuinty's plan of trying to scare voters into casting a ballot for him to prevent an PC/NDP coalition is very interesting, and sounds familiar. Tim Hudak should have thought of this himself.

[cosmostein]

[Eve Stevens]

I just watched the leaders debate and if it did not lose Hudak votes, I will be surprised. McQuinty actually looks better though he does look like the smooth talking crook that he is. Andrea came off the best, as in, not a criminal out to steal our money and she sounded as if she cared. Hudak looked like a clumsy oaf who does not know what he is talking about.
After watching that mess, I may not vote.

[section118man]

[cosmostein]

I think as per usual the political pundits have got the debate breakdown wrong;

Who won or lost is ultimately moot;
The bar was set so low for Hudak I was expecting him to trip over the podium and he did fairly well in what I would call his first real face to face with Ontario.

The thing is;
Today we saw a second poll confirm the above regional breakdowns;

McGuinty leads Toronto and its 22 seats by a MASSIVE margin;
Horwath and Hudak are statistically tied in Northern Ontario,
And Hudak leads everywhere else.

We tend to be blinded by the "overall" polling figure; the problem is that if the Liberals have a nearly 20 point lead in Toronto it creates the illusion of a close race Provincially.

Did the debate help Hudak in Toronto?
No. I still think McGuinty takes 20 of 22 seats in the 416

Did the debate help McGuinty in the other 85 ridings?
No.

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Kingston and the Islands
Prince Edward—Hastings
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Barrie
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

All appear to be ridings that the Liberals have walked away from; and based on the regional polling I can understand why.

Hudak appears to be on course for around 40 - 45 seats (based on the newest EKOS poll which is less favorable then the Abacus Poll) if the polling is correct; the GTA appears pretty murky with far to many TCTC ridings,

However unlike 2007, the Tories are not the ones playing catch up in most regions, its the Liberals this time.

[Louise M.]

[RCO]

( it appears the original forum poll may have underestimated ndp support in some ridings )


Poll shows NDP ahead in some key ridings


By Antonella Artuso,Queen's Park Bureau Chief

First posted: Friday, September 30, 2011 04:00 AM EDT


The Ontario Federation of Labour has commissioned a new poll that shows New Democrats leading or competitive in a number of key ridings.

OFL President Sid Ryan said Thursday that the organization hired the same firm responsible for a recently published poll, Forum Research Inc., but the results were quite different.

“I didn’t believe it,” Ryan said of the previous poll, that showed strong NDP incumbents in trouble in their ridings.

The OFL used the same firm, the same questions, but asked twice as many people their voting intentions, he said.

“We used the same company so people can’t say that the methodology is any different,” Ryan, a former NDP candidate, said.

The poll found “convincing leads” for the NDP in five of the nine ridings surveyed.

In particular, NDP incumbent Cheri DiNovo had a 15% advantage over her nearest competitor in Parkdale-High Park, while the NDP was also leading in Trinity-Spadina, Timmins-James Bay and Beaches-East York.

The previous poll showed DiNovo trailing her competitor.

The poll results also show an 8% advantage to the NDP in York South-Weston which is currently held by a Liberal incumbent.

The NDP are in neck and neck races in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North, the poll shows.

Ontarians were also asked which party would be their second choice and 29% put down the NDP, 25% would go to the Liberals and 13% would opt to vote Tory.

And 60% of those voting Liberal said the NDP is their second choice, while the Liberals are the second choice of 47% of those voting NDP.

Forum Research interviewed 6,239 Ontarians in nine ridings on Sept. 26 and 27, and the results are considered accurate plus or minus 3.8%


http://www.ottawasun.com/2011/.....ey-ridings

[cosmostein]

NDP support is a funny thing;

It rarely shows up all at once on election day, even May 2nd many pollsters had them around 32 and 33.

Will this be the election that bucks that trend?

[Eve Stevens]

The reason I said that the debate would cost Hudak votes is because that was my feel from it. It turns out that it did cost him votes and we may have another 4 years of McQuinty becasue of that. I will still vote for the Conservative party but I really wish Christine Elliot had received the nomination instead. She can look like a leader.
While I and everyone on here knows that the party is the most important thing and that Ontario needs a conservative party in power, the reality is that most voters vote by gut feel. Andrea looked and sounded very good in the debate and the polls reflect that. Even McQuinty looked better than Hudak.
No point in yelling at me for saying this. The polls reflect it.

[RCO]

John Ivison: Time for Hudak to sound alarm bells on NDP surge




Aaron Lynett/National Post

“Ladies and gentlemen, please don't panic but I think the NDP might be surging.”





.
John Ivison Oct 2, 2011 – 1:26 PM ET | Last Updated: Oct 2, 2011 2:22 PM ET


Tim Hudak’s mood was light as he campaigned in a hockey rink early Sunday, cup of Tim Hortons in hand, selling his family income sharing plan. Too light.

The Tories have woken up the threat posed by the NDP late in the game – in a speech at a rally late Saturday evening in his home town of Fort Erie he said the Liberals and the NDP are “one and the same.” It was a theme he repeated at the hockey rink, where he said he is very concerned the NDP, the Liberals “or the two together” will impose a carbon tax or raise the HST. “The other parties are high tax parties,” he said, pointing out that Darrell Dexter’s NDP government in Nova Scotia increased the HST after being elected. “The NDP wants to increase taxes on job creators and kill jobs in our province. That’s wrong,” he said.

The calculation appears two-fold. Firstly, there are concerns that the NDP is starting to eat into the Conservative vote, particularly in the south-west of the province where Andrea Horwath’s pledges to remove the HST from gas and home heating are popular.

Mr. Hudak will campaign in Windsor Monday and Ms. Horwath spent Saturday in the region. The Tories want a strong NDP to split the progressive vote but have found the robust orange vote is starting to split the vote for change.

The second consideration seems to be to highlight the danger of the NDP having a hand on the levers of power, in order to persuade blue Liberals to switch camps. This worked for Stephen Harper in the federal election, as the subsequent vote splits allowed Conservatives to win seats in downtown Toronto for the first time since the early 1990s. The Liberals point out that the federal orange surge happened at a time when it was clear Michael Ignatieff’s Grits were doomed. In Ontario, Dalton McGuinty is still in the race and his team claim their vote is solid.

Still Mr. Hudak is not hammering hard enough on the danger to the province’s already fragile economy that looms from a Liberal-NDP government, whether in the form of a formal coalition or as part of an informal agreement that gives the New Democrats the ability to hold Ontario to ransom. Mr. McGuinty ruled out the former option in an open letter to Mr. Hudak Sunday, saying only a Liberal majority could ensure “a steady hand in uncertain times.” But the prospect of the NDP agreeing to prop up a Liberal government remains very real. In return,Ms. Horwath would undoubtedly demand the implementation of a number of her policies.

I interviewed Prime Minister Stephen Harper during the federal campaign and asked him about the dangers of a similar arrangement in Ottawa. He warned that such a government would increase spending, raise taxes and send a message to the world that Canada was closed for business. He said the NDP doesn’t believe in free trade and any such coalition would be unstable. “No-one should under-estimate the damage it would to Canada’s reputation,” he said, dismissing Jack Layton’s appeal as “all smiles and snake oil.”

Every word is as relevant to Ms. Horwath’s provincial NDP as it was to Mr. Layton’s federal iteration. The Ontario NDP wants to put up corporate taxes to fund the rest of its program, promotes a protectionist Buy Ontario program and wants a moratorium on nuclear building that would turn out the lights. Ms. Horwath has shown no signs of having what it takes to run a $600-billion dollar economy and there are no indications that she has caucus bench-strength to fill a strong Cabinet.

A Nanos poll on the weekend suggested voters think Mr. Hudak is best equipped to run the economy, marginally ahead of Mr. McGuinty, with the NDP leader trailing far behind. Since the economy is the number one concern, you’d think that would put an end to NDP electoral hopes. Yet stranger things have happened than last minute surges based on little more than a winning smile and easy manner.

Mr. Hudak should have appropriated Mr. Harper’s mantra of a “strong, stable, Conservative majority government” long before Mr. McGuinty purloined it – he now routinely urges voters to give him a “strong, stable, Liberal majority government.”

But it’s not too late for the Tory leader to lay out in stark terms the likely consequences of a post-election Liberal-NDP accord. It is no more appealing to many Liberals than it is to Tories but who thinks Mr. McGuinty wouldn’t do a deal if it kept him as Premier?

Yet, unless Mr. Hudak sounds the alarm bells, we could sleepwalk into a repeat of September 7, 1990, when Ontarians woke up to find they had elected a government that didn’t have a clue what it was doing. As Gerry Caplan, a senior adviser in the Bob Rae NDP government admitted: “We are blown away by how little any of us knows about the workings of government.”


http://fullcomment.nationalpos.....ndp-surge/

[cosmostein]

Too little, too late.

A week ago was the time to draw on Peterson/Rae comparisons.

[Cool Blue]

Frankly, I'd rather an NDP government than McGuinty right now. I'd take the f*cking communists to get rid of him!