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Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:


He'll probably take it with Ed Broadbent's endorsement. He also looked much more normal today with his hair cut.


Topp is the guy I am hoping for;
That isn't good for the NDP LOL


Brian Topp for PM ? somehow i don't think this will ever fly based on what i have seen of him so far
he also doesn't have a seat and could be forced to run for one in Toronto danforth at around the time of ndp race which be a distraction


He wouldn't say if he'd run in Toronto Danforth, it seems like if timing is bad he wouldn't run there. He may be thinking of running in a Montreal seat or something to try and make the party look better. It's pretty stupid though that a wannabe party leader, who says he'll run no matter, won't run in the next by-election.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:


He'll probably take it with Ed Broadbent's endorsement. He also looked much more normal today with his hair cut.


Topp is the guy I am hoping for;
That isn't good for the NDP LOL


Brian Topp for PM ? somehow i don't think this will ever fly based on what i have seen of him so far
he also doesn't have a seat and could be forced to run for one in Toronto danforth at around the time of ndp race which be a distraction


While I always seem to be Debbie Downer when it comes to the NDP;
I don't see Topp as PM.

The formula to become Prime Minister is the same for every party;

You need to dominate one of: Quebec, Western Canada, Ontario
And you need to do VERY well in one of the other two.

What is the NDP growth strategy under Topp?

Outside Toronto and Quebec the NDP added three net seats.
With a net gain of + 1 in the West; and added zero seats out side of the 416 in Ontario.

The Liberals will tell you; you can't win with Toronto alone.

Topp may help you retain Quebec, but I don't see him winning over Ontario or the West.

I think Harper will do the right thing and wait till after the leadership convention to call the by-election in Toronto-Danforth, its more of a courtesy then anything.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:


He wouldn't say if he'd run in Toronto Danforth, it seems like if timing is bad he wouldn't run there. He may be thinking of running in a Montreal seat or something to try and make the party look better. It's pretty stupid though that a wannabe party leader, who says he'll run no matter, won't run in the next by-election.


He won't run unless he is elected leader;
None of Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy, or Martha Hall Findlay had seats when they actively chased leadership of the Liberals.

With the race being early next year; I think the Toronto-Danforth By-Election will be held afterward.

If Topp wins and doesn't run in Toronto-Danforth, then yikes...

He is originally from Longueuil, Quebec

So in theory he could run in Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher or Brossard—La Prairie both of which currently have NDP MP's.

The problem is asking one of them to step aside for you to run is a dangerous game to be playing in Quebec as both those ridings were fairly safe BQ and Liberal ridings respectively.

If you lost that seat in a by-election the party is over.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The leadership convention won't be held for 7 months, Harper can't wait that long to hold the by-election can he?

Just heard that Brian Topp made a lot of enemies in Saskatchewan.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
The leadership convention won't be held for 7 months, Harper can't wait that long to hold the by-election can he?

Just heard that Brian Topp made a lot of enemies in Saskatchewan.


Yeah 7 months is a touch too long;

The official rule is "no earlier than 11 days and no later than 180 days after a vacancy officially takes effect"

In that case; perhaps Mike Layton?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
T
Just heard that Brian Topp made a lot of enemies in Saskatchewan.


Sorry I missed that;

Topp is being baited by everyone it seems, it almost appears that he is the political equivalent of low hanging fruit.

The BC Conservatives just wacked him with this:

Quote:
John Cummins, Leader of the BC Conservative Party, spoke about federal NDP leadership candidate and Provincial NDP Election Co-Chair, Brian Topp’s plan to give more seats to Quebec in the House of Commons.

“Mr. Topp has suggested Quebec should get extra seats in the House of Commons because in his view the province is somehow special. BC is under-represented in the House of Commons, not Quebec. By giving Quebec more seats in the House, as the NDP would have us do, this problem is exacerbated.”

As a Member of Parliament, and now as the leader of the BC Conservatives, Mr Cummins has stood up for fair representation. The question before the BC NDP is, will their party do the same?


http://bcconservative.ca/2011/.....arliament/

It appears this adding seats to the Commons issue may ultimately end up crushing NDP leadership hopefuls.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
It appears this adding seats to the Commons issue may ultimately end up crushing NDP leadership hopefuls.

I hope it becomes a big issue.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
It appears this adding seats to the Commons issue may ultimately end up crushing NDP leadership hopefuls.

I hope it becomes a big issue.


It has to move forward;
This is one of those rare times in politics were political opportunism and the "right thing" happen to be the same.

Alberta and BC have been receiving the bums rush for a while in terms of new seats; the Liberals were in no rush to add seats to Calgary or anywhere other then Vancouver within BC, and the delay caused simply ridiculous constitutes to riding ratios.

What is even more interesting is that even after the seats are added; Ontario and Alberta will still have a worse constitutes to riding ratio then Quebec.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with Ontario, Alberta and BC getting more seats but if Quebec gets more seats I would hope to see Kathy Dunderdale fighting for more seats for NL.

Personally I'd rather see the seats in each province cut in half. Even if all province had roughly the same percentage of seats as they do now, with the exception of the other 3 provinces, at least we'd be spending less money. The reason I mention provinces keeping roughly the same amount of support is because NL, NB, NS, PEI and possibly other provinces wouldn't agree to losing their amount of overrepresentation.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I agree with Ontario, Alberta and BC getting more seats but if Quebec gets more seats I would hope to see Kathy Dunderdale fighting for more seats for NL.

Personally I'd rather see the seats in each province cut in half. Even if all province had roughly the same percentage of seats as they do now, with the exception of the other 3 provinces, at least we'd be spending less money. The reason I mention provinces keeping roughly the same amount of support is because NL, NB, NS, PEI and possibly other provinces wouldn't agree to losing their amount of overrepresentation.


NFLD is a tough call;
If you use the 2006 Census numbers the average constituent per seat is 72,209.

The third most favorable ratio in Canada behind Saskatchewan and PEI.

Alberta is at 118k (128k by their current population) Ontario and BC are at 115k (118 and 117 now respectively) Quebec was at 101k (and 102 based on the current population)

I am of the belief that 105k is reasonable,
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
I agree with Ontario, Alberta and BC getting more seats but if Quebec gets more seats I would hope to see Kathy Dunderdale fighting for more seats for NL.

Personally I'd rather see the seats in each province cut in half. Even if all province had roughly the same percentage of seats as they do now, with the exception of the other 3 provinces, at least we'd be spending less money. The reason I mention provinces keeping roughly the same amount of support is because NL, NB, NS, PEI and possibly other provinces wouldn't agree to losing their amount of overrepresentation.


NFLD is a tough call;
If you use the 2006 Census numbers the average constituent per seat is 72,209.

The third most favorable ratio in Canada behind Saskatchewan and PEI.

Alberta is at 118k (128k by their current population) Ontario and BC are at 115k (118 and 117 now respectively) Quebec was at 101k (and 102 based on the current population)

I am of the belief that 105k is reasonable,


The NDP think Quebec shouldn't lose their percentage of seats, why do they think NL should?
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Megan Leslie is out and Paul Dewar is expected to enter the race soon. Dewar was endorsed by John Baird last week.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As the field rounds out as Mulcair tosses his hat into the ring it appears the field of NDP leadership hopefuls is rounding out:

Brian Topp
Thomas Mulcair
Everyone else.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Dewar still has a good shot, he may end up being a second choice candidate though. He received support from several NDP MLAs in Manitoba today.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I think Dewar still has a good shot, he may end up being a second choice candidate though. He received support from several NDP MLAs in Manitoba today.


I think Dewar has the potential to be kingmaker;
but I don't think he can win.
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