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 Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| Edmund Onward James wrote: | NDP and Liberals merging? My goodness Bob Rae is elated if that happens. They can forget about the agreement he made with the Liberals about not being the leader since his job was to be interim leader. All bets are off, because there would be a new party, the New More Democratic Liberal Party... something like that.
Don, put together a logo. |
While I think Bob Rae's hunger for power is massive, I don't think even he would be in a rush to rule over a mountain of ash.
While I hate to be the realist, I wasn't entirely sure the NDP could maintain Quebec in 2015 even with Jack at the helm. We really had no idea if this was a political love affair for the ages or if Jack was simply the next Mario Dumont to be thrown out of Quebec's bed in the light of the morning.
The Liberals seem to have around 25 fairly firm seats; the NDP have around 30 (none of which are in Quebec, Mulcair's included).
When the PC's and CA merged how many MP's walked away?
These were two parties that had more in common and we saw an exodus of sorts.
The problem with a merged NDP/Liberal party is that you are battling to become king of what could end up being a mirage.
The Quebec support is the most uncertain thing in politics; and how many safe seats do you want to give up when MP's start walking away for the privilege of securing that mirage?
AR and Abacus are both showing the Tories and the BQ well ahead of the Liberals in Quebec and its only a matter of time before either of those two parties begin cannibalizing the NDP support,
The Liberals are an anchor to the NDP if they want to maintain Quebec, and the NDP knows it. |
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| Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:28 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | I don't really think it's a great thing, and I'm unsure if voters will or will not, that a lot of these potential candidates don't have great resumes. Some are teachers while a good few were trades people or blue collar workers who got involved in their unions. My Mom works with the federal government and always says the one's who really get involved with the unions are the clerks and the one's with lowest profile jobs who are looking for a bit of power.
David Miller has been mentioned as a potential candidate, he didn't seem to bad as Mayor of Toronto. |
David Miller's deputy mayor (Joe Pantalone) who ran largely on a status quo platform was hammered in the Toronto election (11%).
Miller would be interesting as he could help the NDP continue its growth in Toronto proper but I question his broader appearl and think he could hurt you in the areas you need to grow in; I am also not sure if he is bi-lingual.
Miller however would be an interesting choice for Layton's seat in the Commons. |
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| Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | I don't really think it's a great thing, and I'm unsure if voters will or will not, that a lot of these potential candidates don't have great resumes. Some are teachers while a good few were trades people or blue collar workers who got involved in their unions. My Mom works with the federal government and always says the one's who really get involved with the unions are the clerks and the one's with lowest profile jobs who are looking for a bit of power.
David Miller has been mentioned as a potential candidate, he didn't seem to bad as Mayor of Toronto. |
David Miller's deputy mayor (Joe Pantalone) who ran largely on a status quo platform was hammered in the Toronto election (11%).
Miller would be interesting as he could help the NDP continue its growth in Toronto proper but I question his broader appearl and think he could hurt you in the areas you need to grow in; I am also not sure if he is bi-lingual.
Miller however would be an interesting choice for Layton's seat in the Commons. |
I believe I did see a poll at one point during the mayoral campaign that showed Miller to still be fairly popular, I'm not sure if they included his name with the rest of the candidates who just asked people their opinions on him. Either way I'm sure I did see something at that time.
You are correct though about his broader appeal, the Liberals have been blasted for being the party of Toronto and all the NDP want is to end up getting a label like that with two consecutive Toronto leaders.
I won't be surprised if Brian Topp runs in Toronto Danforth and for the leadership.
Is there the possibility of the NDP losing Layton's riding to the Liberals? I know they're a third place party which will not help them but they could run someone like Gerard Kennedy, or even a provincial politician, who is seen as a definite leadership candidate. |
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| Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:31 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: |
I won't be surprised if Brian Topp runs in Toronto Danforth and for the leadership.
Is there the possibility of the NDP losing Layton's riding to the Liberals? I know they're a third place party which will not help them but they could run someone like Gerard Kennedy, or even a provincial politician, who is seen as a definite leadership candidate. |
I guess it depends on the degree of sleaze the Liberals feel like covering themselves in, LOL.
I could see the Liberals running George Smitherman in Toronto Danforth as their candidate.
I am not entirely sure the optics of trying to run a rockstar in Jack Layton's old riding, however if Harper waits till the last possible second to hold the by-election then who knows what will happen.
I suspect the Tories will throw a softball by running a third year polly sci student or some paper candidate and allow for the NDP and Liberals to duke it out, the question really become will the Liberals go hard after Layton's old seat or not.
Politics are vicious, we will see just how vicious shortly. |
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| Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
I won't be surprised if Brian Topp runs in Toronto Danforth and for the leadership.
Is there the possibility of the NDP losing Layton's riding to the Liberals? I know they're a third place party which will not help them but they could run someone like Gerard Kennedy, or even a provincial politician, who is seen as a definite leadership candidate. |
I guess it depends on the degree of sleaze the Liberals feel like covering themselves in, LOL.
I could see the Liberals running George Smitherman in Toronto Danforth as their candidate.
I am not entirely sure the optics of trying to run a rockstar in Jack Layton's old riding, however if Harper waits till the last possible second to hold the by-election then who knows what will happen.
I suspect the Tories will throw a softball by running a third year polly sci student or some paper candidate and allow for the NDP and Liberals to duke it out, the question really become will the Liberals go hard after Layton's old seat or not.
Politics are vicious, we will see just how vicious shortly. |
If I were Bob Rae I'd be working to win this riding, my morals aren't great though. Like I've said Layton never did that great in the riding despite being a well liked party leader. I'm in Jack Harris' riding, which has been a Conservative stronghold for decades and Harris has won the riding twice with over 70% of the vote, and Layton only won 60% in a riding that the NDP has traditionally done well in.
Smitherman would be an interesting candidate to run, I had thought he would have been recruited for May. |
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| Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2011 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
I won't be surprised if Brian Topp runs in Toronto Danforth and for the leadership.
Is there the possibility of the NDP losing Layton's riding to the Liberals? I know they're a third place party which will not help them but they could run someone like Gerard Kennedy, or even a provincial politician, who is seen as a definite leadership candidate. |
I guess it depends on the degree of sleaze the Liberals feel like covering themselves in, LOL.
I could see the Liberals running George Smitherman in Toronto Danforth as their candidate.
I am not entirely sure the optics of trying to run a rockstar in Jack Layton's old riding, however if Harper waits till the last possible second to hold the by-election then who knows what will happen.
I suspect the Tories will throw a softball by running a third year polly sci student or some paper candidate and allow for the NDP and Liberals to duke it out, the question really become will the Liberals go hard after Layton's old seat or not.
Politics are vicious, we will see just how vicious shortly. |
If I were Bob Rae I'd be working to win this riding, my morals aren't great though. Like I've said Layton never did that great in the riding despite being a well liked party leader. I'm in Jack Harris' riding, which has been a Conservative stronghold for decades and Harris has won the riding twice with over 70% of the vote, and Layton only won 60% in a riding that the NDP has traditionally done well in.
Smitherman would be an interesting candidate to run, I had thought he would have been recruited for May. |
The stink of being blown out in the Mayoral race was still fresh,
Rob Ford was popular, and the Liberals I would imagine didn't want the contrast.
However a year from today its a different story. |
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| Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2011 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
I won't be surprised if Brian Topp runs in Toronto Danforth and for the leadership.
Is there the possibility of the NDP losing Layton's riding to the Liberals? I know they're a third place party which will not help them but they could run someone like Gerard Kennedy, or even a provincial politician, who is seen as a definite leadership candidate. |
I guess it depends on the degree of sleaze the Liberals feel like covering themselves in, LOL.
I could see the Liberals running George Smitherman in Toronto Danforth as their candidate.
I am not entirely sure the optics of trying to run a rockstar in Jack Layton's old riding, however if Harper waits till the last possible second to hold the by-election then who knows what will happen.
I suspect the Tories will throw a softball by running a third year polly sci student or some paper candidate and allow for the NDP and Liberals to duke it out, the question really become will the Liberals go hard after Layton's old seat or not.
Politics are vicious, we will see just how vicious shortly. |
If I were Bob Rae I'd be working to win this riding, my morals aren't great though. Like I've said Layton never did that great in the riding despite being a well liked party leader. I'm in Jack Harris' riding, which has been a Conservative stronghold for decades and Harris has won the riding twice with over 70% of the vote, and Layton only won 60% in a riding that the NDP has traditionally done well in.
Smitherman would be an interesting candidate to run, I had thought he would have been recruited for May. |
The stink of being blown out in the Mayoral race was still fresh,
Rob Ford was popular, and the Liberals I would imagine didn't want the contrast.
However a year from today its a different story. |
Just looked though and Smitherman actually won over 50% of the vote in that area. |
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| Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: |
Just looked though and Smitherman actually won over 50% of the vote in that area. |
And the plot thickens.
It will be interesting to see who the NDP runs in that riding if their leadership victor already has his or her own seat. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:04 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
Just looked though and Smitherman actually won over 50% of the vote in that area. |
And the plot thickens.
It will be interesting to see who the NDP runs in that riding if their leadership victor already has his or her own seat. |
How long will Harper wait to call the by-election? He'll likely want the NDP to win over the Liberals. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:48 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
Just looked though and Smitherman actually won over 50% of the vote in that area. |
And the plot thickens.
It will be interesting to see who the NDP runs in that riding if their leadership victor already has his or her own seat. |
How long will Harper wait to call the by-election? He'll likely want the NDP to win over the Liberals. |
I am not sure who Harper is rooting for;
A Liberal victory destabilizes the NDP caucus, and makes the Liberals look like total vultures in the process.
I get the feeling Harper will do the classy thing and wait till after the NDP leadership convention to pick the date of the by-election, this way if their new leader does not have a seat he/she can run there.
However if the leader is already within the caucus then it will make for some very very interesting politics.
Win/Lose/Draw David Miller should run for the NDP in that riding.
The NDP needs some profile in their party to offset the 60+ unknowns in Quebec. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:29 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
Just looked though and Smitherman actually won over 50% of the vote in that area. |
And the plot thickens.
It will be interesting to see who the NDP runs in that riding if their leadership victor already has his or her own seat. |
How long will Harper wait to call the by-election? He'll likely want the NDP to win over the Liberals. |
I am not sure who Harper is rooting for;
A Liberal victory destabilizes the NDP caucus, and makes the Liberals look like total vultures in the process.
I get the feeling Harper will do the classy thing and wait till after the NDP leadership convention to pick the date of the by-election, this way if their new leader does not have a seat he/she can run there.
However if the leader is already within the caucus then it will make for some very very interesting politics.
Win/Lose/Draw David Miller should run for the NDP in that riding.
The NDP needs some profile in their party to offset the 60+ unknowns in Quebec. |
David Miller also has experience which is really lacking within the NDP.
I don't know if a Liberal victory will make them appear as vultures, this may have been Jack Layton's seat but it shouldn't mean that other parties should let the NDP have an easy win. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:53 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: |
David Miller also has experience which is really lacking within the NDP.
I don't know if a Liberal victory will make them appear as vultures, this may have been Jack Layton's seat but it shouldn't mean that other parties should let the NDP have an easy win. |
I tend to agree;
The NDP needs to get a few experienced rockstars into the party while their popularity is still where it is.
In the past in cases where there have been by-elections to replace leaders or MPs who have passed away within the context of a majority government we have usually seen the non-incumbent parties toss softballs.
In recent history that has changed a little bit;
However if Brian Topp is elected leader, and the Liberals go hard and fast after that riding with a guy like Smitherman the optics will be poor. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
David Miller also has experience which is really lacking within the NDP.
I don't know if a Liberal victory will make them appear as vultures, this may have been Jack Layton's seat but it shouldn't mean that other parties should let the NDP have an easy win. |
I tend to agree;
The NDP needs to get a few experienced rockstars into the party while their popularity is still where it is.
In the past in cases where there have been by-elections to replace leaders or MPs who have passed away within the context of a majority government we have usually seen the non-incumbent parties toss softballs.
In recent history that has changed a little bit;
However if Brian Topp is elected leader, and the Liberals go hard and fast after that riding with a guy like Smitherman the optics will be poor. |
Question Period will be interesting this Fall. Nycole Turmel will be kicking off Question Period each day and to say she is dull is being kind. Then there's the leadership, the party will likely be missing several high profile MPs which leaves their mostly inexperienced members to make it to the media. Bob Rae on the other hand is very impressive and while small the Liberals have a very experienced caucus. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: |
Question Period will be interesting this Fall. Nycole Turmel will be kicking off Question Period each day and to say she is dull is being kind. Then there's the leadership, the party will likely be missing several high profile MPs which leaves their mostly inexperienced members to make it to the media. Bob Rae on the other hand is very impressive and while small the Liberals have a very experienced caucus. |
No parents to babysit the NDP caucus, and the Liberals will no doubt take every opportunity to make them look inexperienced.
Sooner or later what's left of the Bloc caucus will have to try and toss a Quebec-First style political grenade out there, and then will be as good a time as any. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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Can we see coalition come out now? With Bob Rae as leader?
My caricature is oddly ominous:
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New NDP leader to be selected in coming months |
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