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Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just what they said on the news.

Including the undecided numbers the Conservatives are at 32% in Newfoundland and Labrador with the Liberals at only 21%, 37.4 were undecided. Taking in the leaning vote the Conservative are at 37% with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP are in the single digits. I will post the poll when it becomes available. It may be up on my blog first.

UPDATE: This was just tweeted.

NTV/Telelink federal poll: CON 32.1; LIB 21.0; NDP 7.6; GRN/OTH 2.0; UND 37.4. Sample: 754. Margin of Error +/-3.6 19 times out of 20

NTV/Telelink federal poll: If you include leaning undecideds: CON 36.9; LIB 24.3; NDP 8.8; GRN/OTH 2.3; UND 27.9


Last edited by Progressive Tory on Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
A provincial poll has been conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador and though the numbers won't be released till the NTV News at 6:00 the Conservatives have seen a major resurgence in the province and aren't in third place anymore. The party received 16.5% in NL in 2008.


I have not really factored in any seats from the Province in any of my calculations;
Should be interesting to see if I can pencil in a seat or two.
ProudNewfoundlander





Joined: 26 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wouldnt surprise me to much. The anger people felt towards the Tories was over a promise they broke, fueled to an even greater extent by Danny Williams (ex: ABC Campaign). Some local Tories felt that the promise was unrealistic to begin with, and was an attempt by Harper to get every last voter behind hm against Martin. Pus, some Tories see some hope for reform with the Tories and their policies of de-centralization and the traditionally half-decent relationship Newfoundland had with the old Federal progressive Conseratives If I followed politics more closely in 2006 I certainly would have been skeptical.But because it was over an incident, peoples memories will begin to fade, andwith Williams out of the picture, and a less-than-spectacular performance from our Liberal MP's the Tories could see a resurgance. But for the record, I was in favor of the promise, and was fairly pissed that it was broken.

However I blame the system more then the party. While a party could have certaintly kept their promise, the act that a greater number of people would have been angered in other parts of Canada prevented them from implementing the promise. I doubt senior Tory members felt that they would end up obliging on the promise. It was a pretty underhanded, dickish thing to do to break the promise, even by mainland standards; still talking in the area of billions, which is a lot for Newfoundland. Plus, theres the ideological standpoint that resources on the offshore off Newfoundland are Newfoundlands, not the federal government's.

If I had to chose between the Liberals and the Tories Id choose the Tories. Well, not neccessarily because Im ideologically conservative, but heyre the lesser evil. Every issue Newfoundland has, the Liberals are at the root of it. (It was only in 2005 danny was attacking Paul martin on the Atlantic Accord. And when a Liberal comm director infamously said "Newfoundland is going to pay for this). That, along with a number of other actions by the Liberals are still in the minds of some people too. For the Liberals its more than math, its principle. They believe in a highly centralized form of government, believe in this large homogenous state. And this bodes badly in newfoundland, whose issues will be heard even less in a centali\zed system, who will end up forteiting resources revenues in a centealized system, and whose culture will be discarded as "non existant" with the Liberals. With the Toies, its just math. Theyll give Newfoundland what it wants... as long as te rest of Canada is "cool wit it". As far as theyre concerned most responsibilities are with the provinces, not Ottawa.

But both parties still, in the end, have to play by the federal system. Most power is in the lower house, and they have to placate to the most populous regions, and wit no other house capable of strongly checking decisions made in the lower house you end up wih tis regionally proportional house treating provinces disproportionally. You end up with provinces like Newfoundlan continuallygetting the shaft.
Edmund Onward James





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I disagree with ProudNewFoundlander on two points: Lesser evil and Newfoundland constantly getting the shaft. Do you know how much fuel there is offshore? Had drilling been allowed without too much interference by blowhard Williams, the oil companies would have made a substantial deal...well if not directly, federally, and just imagine the taxes and transfer funds, especially now since Libya is in turmoil and certain countries will rely on the Saudis.

Furthermore Stephen Harper is one of the best PMs in the history of the country, particulalrly with a minority. There are capable ministers... and should they win a majority then judge, but they certainly are not evil.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Edmund Onward James wrote:
I disagree with ProudNewFoundlander on two points: Lesser evil and Newfoundland constantly getting the shaft. Do you know how much fuel there is offshore? Had drilling been allowed without too much interference by blowhard Williams, the oil companies would have made a substantial deal...well if not directly, federally, and just imagine the taxes and transfer funds, especially now since Libya is in turmoil and certain countries will rely on the Saudis.

Furthermore Stephen Harper is one of the best PMs in the history of the country, particulalrly with a minority. There are capable ministers... and should they win a majority then judge, but they certainly are not evil.


When did Danny Williams interfere with drilling?
Edmund Onward James





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you recall he badgered the oil companies and they stopped for a while. Correct me if Ii am wrong, I have sometimers.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Edmund Onward James wrote:
If you recall he badgered the oil companies and they stopped for a while. Correct me if Ii am wrong, I have sometimers.


He fought with several oil companies, including Exon Mobil, when negotiating the Hebron oil field, talks broke off because the companies weren't willing to give the province a big enough equity stake. After a while they all met again Williams pretty much got the equity stake he was looking for, 4.7% I think instead of 5%, the development is now underway and Exon Mobil relocated their Canadian headquarters here.

I believe Williams tried to get Harper to implement a time limit for oil companies to start developing their discoveries, so they don't sit undeveloped for 30 years like Hebron. I don't know if I agree with that or not.
Edmund Onward James





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you for the clarification Progressive Tory.

I am more versed with foreign affairs and American politics than across Canada and provincial politics. Of course, since I am an Ontarian, once the spine of the country but now have-less province, I pay reasonable attention with homebase.

And from what I have recently learnt about the "Seven Sisters", the big oil companies in the world, was a bit shocking at first... but it's always about FOLLOW THE MONEY.

A major talk radio host said that the oil companies take advantage with what's going on in the Middle East for several reasons and more ways than one. Oil prices skyrocket. Fine. Commodities futures etc. Their refineries make money since the Muslim nations do not have the refineries they do, and they also hold back from drilling and refining. Why glut the market. And Saudi Arabia will only supply so much to replace the sweet oil from Libya.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've heard that polling done in the riding of Avalon has shown that if Senator Fabian Manning were to run he likely would not be able to win. Supposedly if John Ottenheimer will agree to run Manning will be staying put, it was the opposite a month ago.
ProudNewfoundlander





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I've heard that polling done in the riding of Avalon has shown that if Senator Fabian Manning were to run he likely would not be able to win. Supposedly if John Ottenheimer will agree to run Manning will be staying put, it was the opposite a month ago.


Manning would still be able to do well. The right candidate could win. Andrews is a flake
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ProudNewfoundlander wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
I've heard that polling done in the riding of Avalon has shown that if Senator Fabian Manning were to run he likely would not be able to win. Supposedly if John Ottenheimer will agree to run Manning will be staying put, it was the opposite a month ago.


Manning would still be able to do well. The right candidate could win. Andrews is a flake


He may be able to do well but their polling shows he will lose to Andrews again, it's not about doing well it's about winning.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It won't help Manning that Loyola Sullivan is destined to be elected. I'd say a lot of his votes last time was due to people knowing he was the only chance of a representation at the Cabinet table.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It won't help Manning that Loyola Sullivan is destined to be elected. I'd say a lot of his votes last time was due to people knowing he was the only chance of a representation at the Cabinet table.
ProudNewfoundlander





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PostPosted: Sun Mar 06, 2011 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
It won't help Manning that Loyola Sullivan is destined to be elected. I'd say a lot of his votes last time was due to people knowing he was the only chance of a representation at the Cabinet table.


He still commands a lot of popularity in parts of the riding, especially the south shore. He did very well there last election. Hell, he even MC'ed my nans birthda in Placentia. And he lost because of ABC mostly. I still think he capable of squeeking out a victory there.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Mar 06, 2011 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ProudNewfoundlander wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
It won't help Manning that Loyola Sullivan is destined to be elected. I'd say a lot of his votes last time was due to people knowing he was the only chance of a representation at the Cabinet table.


He still commands a lot of popularity in parts of the riding, especially the south shore. He did very well there last election. Hell, he even MC'ed my nans birthda in Placentia. And he lost because of ABC mostly. I still think he capable of squeeking out a victory there.


I figured he would have too, and he may very well if he runs. I've just heard that polling done by the party shows it's unlikely.
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