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Some Guy 2.0





Joined: 05 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:04 pm    Post subject: Shocking! Earth has its own temperature regulation system! Reply with quote

Okay, not all that shocking. But...

http://knowledgedrift.wordpres.....egulation/

Iíve been a long time skeptic of global warming, a lot of the evidence just didnít match the science. But a lot of the physics showing how greenhouse gases would trap energy were pretty reasonable. I always assumed that they were being blown out of proportion or that they were causing other processes that were cancelling them out.

The climatologists keep producing models of the climate showing that there should be a pronounced warming trend. The Earth keeps refusing to produce one. Convinced the scientific principles behind their models are right, they started questioning their data. Perhaps bad data was skewing results, we just need better data. Skeptics call that choosing the data to fit the theory, and they are right to do so, so go and fix the models. But the models produce the same results the more accurate the data is, and changing the fundamentals of the model would be breaking the laws of physics. So where is the problem?

The debate one level down from the public one is about energy balance. If greenhouse gases are keeping more energy in, then either the temperature has to go up, or the heat is being stored somewhere, or it is leaking out somewhere. Some theories are that it is being absorbed into deep ocean waters, but deep sea temperature probes canít seem to find it. Melting ice could be the culprit, but while it is melting, it doesnít seem fast enough to account for the increased energy the models insist must be there. Research is being done on cloud cover to see if they are reflecting more heat than previously thought, or perhaps other changes in the atmosphere have an opposite effect, but there must be an energy leak from somewhere to somewhere not being accounted for.

My theory is the earth has a built in temperature regulator that greenhouse gases trigger. To explain, letís keep two thoughts in mind. The poles are actually relatively warm and they have no greenhouse gases. MOSF (Massive Over Simplification Follows):

Start with the poles. We think of them as cold places, but they arenít. Energy balance equations must be done in degrees Kelvin so that we are comparing to the absolute 0 of space. A nice hot day of 30 C is 303 K. A nasty -50 C is 223 K. Pretty warm by space standards.

Now letís look at greenhouse gases. The biggest one is water vapour which accounts for 36 to 72% depending on whose numbers you use. At 223 degrees K, air holds a tiny fraction of a gram of water per kilogram of air. At 293 K, it holds about 15. At 303 K (30 C) it jumps to 28. In brief, not much water vapour at the poles, but lots and lots and lots at the equator. Ozone is a big one at 3 to 7 %. Oops, not much Ozone at the poles either, we all know about the ozone holes over the poles. They are largely natural by the way as Ozone is generated by the sun in vast amounts by UV rays ionizing Oxygen, but since the sunís rays are very weak at the poles, not much gets generated and a hole forms for the same reason its cold there. One can argue if they are bigger than normal or not because of CFCís, but the point is that they are there. So based on just those two gases MOSF, weíve eliminated between 40 and 79% of the greenhouse effect at the poles (its not that simple because of strong air currents, ocean currents, etc, but work with it for now). So, while greenhouse gases are collecting heat at the equator, they arenít doing much at the poles. Ocean and wind currents distribute heat from the equator to the poles which is why they seem to be heating up a lot more than the rest of the planet, but there is still a LOT of energy missing.

I believe it is leaking out at the poles, and that greenhouse gases are causing it.

So if we start heating the planet up, what happens? First of all since the greenhouse gases are thickest at the equator, thatís where the energy gets collected. Warm air rises, so MOSF the hot air goes up drawing cooler air from the temperate zones in behind it. It can only go up so far though, and then it starts spilling back toward the poles to replace the temperate zone air coming in from below. Other things happen in the ocean, and it moves energy around as well. This process goes on all the time anyway, but in a warming trend it would accelerate, moving the energy faster because the driving force is convection which is increased by the increased heat being trapped at the equator. As a result, the poles heat up lot more than the equator does, but when the IPCC talks about temperature, they are talking about the average for the planet. Which has what to do with anything? Letís talk energy again.

The earth is radiating energy into space. At the equator, it is radiating a lot of energy because it is about 300 K hotter than space. Poor old north pole, heís only at 223. NASA says the temperature rise at the poles is 8 times what it is at the equator. Using their ratio MOSF letís assume that temperature goes up ľ of a degree at the equator which means 2 degrees at the poles. Now the equator is at 300.3 but the poles have shot up to 225. Radiance at the equator is up 0.1% but at the north pole it went up almost 9%. Sure some energy went into melting ice, but the bottom line is that the poles are spewing a lot more energy out into space than they would otherwise. PLUS, at the equator, a LOT of what gets radiated out gets reflected back again by greenhouse gases. But since the poles have a serious shortfall of that stuff, the bulk of their additional radiance goes straight out into space. The window is wide open so turning up the furnace raises the temperature in the house, but it takes a LOT more energy than it would if the window was shut.

For a given increase in energy being trapped by greenhouse gases, or any other energy input for that matter, its now a race. The equator goes up another quarter of a degree, the poles radiate an extra 18%. The poles will never completely catch up to the new energy input though,so the Earth would over time settle into a new energy balance at a temperature increase that is a lot less than it otherwise would have been.

Thereís the leak.

Thatís my theory. If you have reason to believe I am wrong, please tell me why.
kwlafayette





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan

PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Earth hater...
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Denier!! :lol:

-Mac

ps: good post, Justin!
Some Guy 2.0





Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 304
Reputation: 21Reputation: 21
votes: 2

PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Make sure to read the blog it came from!
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 5500
Reputation: 104
votes: 35
Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin Hoffer wrote:
Make sure to read the blog it came from!

You've linked that blog before. Great stuff!

-Mac
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Shocking! Earth has its own temperature regulation system!

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