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RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:33 am    Post subject: Top two parties running neck and neck in B.C. election Reply with quote

Top two parties running neck and neck in B.C.
Angus Reid poll puts Liberals just ahead of NDP among decided voters
Article Comments (102) PATRICK BRETHOUR

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

April 28, 2009 at 11:16 PM EDT

VANCOUVER — The British Columbia election has drifted into a dead heat, with an Angus Reid Strategies poll showing both the Liberals and NDP are still groping for a message that can galvanize voters.

In the poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, and released Tuesday night, the Liberals and NDP are essentially tied at the halfway mark of the campaign, 42 per cent to 39 per cent, a result within the poll's margin of error.

The electoral stalemate points to the failure of either Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell or NDP Leader Carole James to define the central issue of the campaign, said Hamish Marshall, research director of public affairs at Angus Reid.

At the halfway point, both parties have a path to victory, he said – but the Liberals' path looks to be more clear-cut. And both parties will have to deal with high negative ratings for their leaders, with Ms. James now matching Mr. Campbell's disapproval numbers.

The Angus Reid poll, in line with other surveys, points to the economy as the top issue, with 34 per cent of respondents saying it is their top concern. At the same time, an overwhelming majority – 75 per cent – say competence, not empathy, is the most important trait for a premier to have during a recession. Even NDP supporters opt for competence over empathy, by a margin of 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

Taken together, Mr. Marshall says, that points to an opportunity for Mr. Campbell to build a bridge from his personal strengths as a decisive leader to connect with voters' concerns about the effect of a weakening economy on their jobs and household finances. And Mr. Campbell enjoys a huge margin over his NDP rival on questions of economic competence.

Yet, the Liberals have yet to make the recession – and who is best equipped to steer the provincial economy through it – the central issue of the campaign. “This election is not a referendum on Gordon Campbell's handling of the economy,” Mr. Marshall said. “If it was, you'd see things going better for the B.C. Liberals.”

For Ms. James, there is also an opportunity to be found in the poll's results, beyond the fact that her party has erased the gap with the Liberals from a six-point deficit in an Angus Reid survey in late March, Mr. Marshall said. Those gains seem to have come in part because of the party's opposition to the carbon tax, which has drawn severe criticism from environmental groups in the first weeks of the campaign.

But the Liberals appear to be the losers on that issue, the latest Angus Reid poll indicates, with the party losing support in the north without any corresponding gain from environmentally minded voters who support the tax.

It is crime, not the carbon tax, that holds the possibility for further growth for the NDP, Mr. Marshall said. The poll indicates that neither party has a decisive advantage on who is best suited to deal with crime, giving the NDP a chance to make law-and-order issues the centrepiece concern of the election, he said.

Indeed, Ms. James hit that theme in the week before the official start of the campaign, launching a television ad that attacked the Liberals for failing to prosecute the war on gang violence with enough vigour, and promising that an NDP government would crack down on crime. However, the party has not stuck to that theme, instead moving on to other issues such as rent control and apprenticeship training.

An NDP focus on crime would be risky, Mr. Marshall said. Ms. James starts from a low level of support – just 15 per cent of respondents say she is best suited to deal with that problem – and a law-and-order message has the potential to diminish the enthusiasm of the party's base of support.

By contrast, a Liberal focus on the economy would resonate with a traditional party supporter – a key advantage in an election where turnout could be low, Mr. Marshall said.

Responding to news of a tightening race yesterday, Mr. Campbell quickly returned to his economic message. “It's actually what people are worried about: People are worried about their jobs, they are worried about the economy and one of the things they should ask themselves is, do they really think the way the economy worked in the 1990s is the way we are going to get through this?” he said. “The opposition has put forward a platform that calls for an additional $1-billion in taxes, massive new deficits and no plan to get out of it.”

Ms. James again criticized the Liberal record on fighting gang violence and defended her economic platform, saying the Liberals will levy fees and otherwise drive up expenses for British Columbians. “My plan gives more money in their pocket and makes life more affordable,” she said.

The online survey was taken from April 24 to April 26 from a random sample of 822 adult residents of British Columbia, with results statistically weighted. The poll is deemed accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....itics/home
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

if this poll is accurate it looks like they might have a very interesting final couple of weeks there , if they can manage to get bc voters to pay attention to politics considering the vanvcouver canucks playoff run .
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting as the Liberals were WELL ahead a few weeks ago,
melwilde





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The spoiler out here is the B.C. Conservative party. They are doing there best to split the right of center vote. They do not have the ability to govern and every day Conservative supporters are outraged with their tactics.
Not a good time for those who fear an NDP victory
For an accurate look go to www,lakecountrycalendar.com under opinion.
One for the right...one for the left!
finally the B.C. conservatives had 20 people show up for their rally in Kelowna B.C.
melwilde





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I forgot to mention huge numbers of Federal Conservatives supporters are working
for the B.C. Liberal candidates. Two reasons; one they fear the crackpot NDP and Two, most B.C. Liberals are conservative.
Hell of a mess!
Mac





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

melwilde wrote:
I forgot to mention huge numbers of Federal Conservatives supporters are working
for the B.C. Liberal candidates. Two reasons; one they fear the crackpot NDP and Two, most B.C. Liberals are conservative.
Hell of a mess!

I can agree with your first reason but the second reason is hogwash. Any government which offered "signing bonuses" of taxpayer's money to buy union peace isn't conservative. Any government which slams on a carbon tax during an economic crisis isn't conservative. Any government who grants themselves raises at greater than double the rate of inflation isn't conservative. Gord Campbell and his band of misfits should be turfed from office. I just wish there was a Conservative alternative which was ready to take up the reins... but alas!

-Mac
palomino_pony





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

melwilde wrote:
The spoiler out here is the B.C. Conservative party. They are doing there best to split the right of center vote. They do not have the ability to govern and every day Conservative supporters are outraged with their tactics.
Not a good time for those who fear an NDP victory


The Green Party will suck support from the NDP. They will get more votes than the BCCP, so as far as 3rd parties go, they are more of a threat to the NDP the the BCCP is to the Liberals. The Greens are the only other party running a full slate of candidates.

In my riding, only the Liberals, NDP and Greens Party are fielding candidates, so sadly I won't have the chance to suppot the BCCP. I think the rules changed where a larger deposit and more nomination signatures are now required which led to less people running. Maybe I can vote for the BCCP next time if the STV referendum passes.
Tony Ducey





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect this election to be neck and neck right down to May 12th. I expect the end result to be a minority Liberal government.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tony Ducey wrote:
I expect this election to be neck and neck right down to May 12th. I expect the end result to be a minority Liberal government.


Even neck and neck I still see a Liberal majority as I just don't see the Greens or BCCP getting a single seat.
goward4u





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with Mac.

Also lots of federal Libs are involved with the provincial party including a few under RCMP investigation. The Liberal party is just as corrupt here as in Quebec or anywhere else. Gordon Campbell is in trouble for defending his SG over speeding tickets. He finally resigned his post but not until he had to because of media scrutiny. Both he and Campbell tried to hide the scandal.

Some poor NDP schmuck had to resign from running because of some silly pictures on Facebook. Really.

As with all Libs, anything they do is forgivable because they are doing the work of the people. Everyone else who makes" mistakes" is a public menace and must quit for the public good. That's the Liberal way.

Anyway, I'm not voting this time but if the NDP get elected, I'll LMAO.

Carol James opening the 2010 Olympics? PRICELESS.
905 Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goward4u wrote:
Carol James opening the 2010 Olympics? PRICELESS.


Really? They are actually going to give the opening adress to a premier of a province. I'd actually rather have the Queen do it--someone more worldly and well known. If we still have Harper as P.M., then it'd be cool for him to do it. Can you imagine Ignatieff doing it (that is if an election happens and he somehow wins)? Raising his eyebrows and giving a long-winded announcement putting everyone to sleep.
Mac





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The elephant in BC is the STV-PR re-referendum. Don't even get me started on why they would run a second referendum on the same question. What part of "NO" didn't they understand?

It would appear the Liberals see this as being a "trump card" to ensure they always have MPs in the house and don't find themselves in the same situation as the NDP did after the Glen Clark years... and it appears the NDP share the same feeling. During my recent trip to Vancouver (I just got home... did you miss me?), I saw more advertisements and placards for "Say Yes to STV" than I did ads and placards for political parties! Since the referendum isn't political advertizing, it would appear the incumbents are pulling out all the stops to see it goes through.

In a mean sorta way, I hope the STV goes in so the rest of Canada can witness the political entropy which results. Then we can learn from BC's example.

-Mac
goward4u





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know the Premier doesn't open the Olympics but whoever it is will definitely get in front of the cameras as much as possible. The host province will have a high profile.

The STV is the worst idea ever. I refuse to choose between up to 30 candidates, many running for the same party and try to put them in order of preference only to never know which one of my choices actually got counted.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2009 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Poll shows high mistrust of Campbell
Article Comments (32) DIRK MEISSNER

Globe and Mail Update

May 6, 2009 at 11:45 PM EDT

VICTORIA — One of Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell's major hurdles to winning a third term as B.C. Premier on May 12 is himself, a poll has found.

Voters overwhelmingly rank Mr. Campbell and his Liberal Party as their top choice when it comes to handling the No. 1 issue of the election, the economy. But the second most important issue for voters is mistrust of Mr. Campbell.

The online Harris-Decima poll was conducted for The Canadian Press and surveyed 1,000 people from April 27 to May 2.

Jeff Walker, a senior vice-president with Harris-Decima, said voter boredom with Mr. Campbell after eight years as Premier, along with the ongoing BC Rail issue are likely reasons why mistrust has risen to near the top for voters.

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“Over time, becoming too familiar sometimes can be a difficult thing for a leader to face,” Mr. Walker said.

“Premier Campbell has been the Premier for a long time and that comes along with a certain amount of baggage where people just get tired with a person or are unhappy with a decision or two or three that they've made over the course of their leadership.”

The poll found that 48 per cent of decided voters named the economy as the most important issue. Mistrust of Mr. Campbell was second, at 22 per cent.

But when respondents were asked to name what would most influence their vote, 37 per cent said it was the party best able to handle the economy.

And 64 per cent of respondents rated Mr. Campbell either very capable or capable of handling the B.C. economy, which has slipped into recession after several years of record job growth and surplus budgets.

NDP Leader Carole James was far behind, with only 5 per cent saying she was very capable of handling the economy and 33 per cent saying she was fairly capable.

Like another recent poll, the Harris-Decima poll also concluded that the Liberals and the NDP are in a neck and neck race, but there is a huge swath – some 28 per cent – of respondents who said they were still undecided with only six days to go before voting day.

Mr. Campbell was first elected Premier in 2001, but has been Liberal Leader since 1993. Along with Manitoba Premier Gary Doer and Quebec Premier Jean Charest, he is one of the longest-serving Premiers in Canada.

Mr. Campbell consistently fought image issues during his early years in provincial politics. As Liberal opposition leader in the mid-1990s and during his first term as Premier after the 2001 election, he was portrayed as more comfortable in a boardroom or library than in front of a crowd.

Mr. Campbell was forced to show his emotional side after he was arrested for drunk driving in Maui in January of 2003. He admitted the mistake during a public news conference, but did not resign, and his support and popularity increased.

During the current campaign, Mr. Campbell has been gregarious to the point where he makes it a point to greet protesters at his campaign stops.

But during last Sunday's televised leaders debate he was criticized for telling Ms. James that handling the province's crime wave was a big job.

“I do think there's a bit of an overlay here maybe with the BC Rail story, with some of the others that are more specific, and maybe they are hurting Premier Campbell a little bit more than we might expect,” Mr. Walker said.

The BC Rail issue has been fuel for the NDP fire in the Legislature and on the campaign trail.

Controversial Liberal insider Patrick Kinsella, who co-chaired two Campbell election campaigns, and whose name surfaced at the long-running B.C. Legislature raid trial, demanded an apology from the NDP days into the campaign.

The NDP sent a letter to the RCMP to investigate allegations that Mr. Kinsella was working for CN Rail and provincially owned BC Rail when the Liberal government sold BC Rail to CN Rail.

Mr. Kinsella's lawyer sent a letter to the NDP demanding an apology, which so far hasn't materialized.

Mr. Kinsella's name surfaced at the trial of two former Liberal government aides charged with fraud and breach of trust after the unprecedented 2003 police raid on the B.C. Legislature in connection with the privatization sale of BC Rail.

The Crown believes the aides provided confidential government documents to a third company that was in the running to buy BC Rail.

Defence lawyers said earlier this year that emails disclosed as possible evidence seemed to suggest Kinsella was paid $300,000 by BC Rail as the government tried to sell the railway in 2003. It is alleged that at the time, Kinsella was also on the payroll for the eventual buyer of the railway, CN Rail.

Campbell has been asked about Kinsella throughout the campaign, but said he has not spoken to his former campaign aide in ages.

Among the other issues of importance for B.C. voters, in descending order, are health care, the environment, mistrust of James, anger over the Liberal carbon tax and anger over the NDP plan to axe the carbon tax.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....itics/home
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2009 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

B.C. Liberals, NDP in dead heat
NDP Leader Carole James gains momentum with voters
Article Comments (89) PATRICK BRETHOUR

From Friday's Globe and Mail

May 8, 2009 at 12:30 AM EDT

VANCOUVER — In the wake of a forceful debate performance, NDP Leader Carole James is sweeping away doubts about her leadership and closing in on Gordon Campbell's Liberals in the final stretch of the election campaign, an Angus Reid Strategies poll indicates.

The poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, points to a neck-and-neck race, with the Liberals at 44 per cent and the NDP at 42 per cent. The Liberal lead of two percentage points, down from three points last week, is effectively a tie.

But the more dramatic change in the dynamic of the campaign has come in public perceptions of the NDP and Liberal leaders. Ms. James, who had been badly lagging her party in popularity, has suddenly caught fire with voters — likely sparked by her strong showing in the only televised debate of the campaign on Sunday, said Hamish Marshall, research director for Angus Reid Strategies. "The most incredible thing is how impressions of Carole James have improved," he said.

The NDP Leader has gained ground on Mr. Campbell on every leadership quality measured by the poll, and has seen her personal popularity ratings surge. Now, 36 per cent of respondents approve of her performance, a nine-point increase since last week's poll. At the same time, her disapproval rating has dropped by seven points to 42 per cent.


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Meanwhile, Mr. Campbell's numbers have remained relatively steady, with 36-per-cent approval and 51-per-cent disapproval.

Mr. Marshall said one of the more striking gains by Ms. James is on the measure of whether she has a vision for the future of British Columbia. In last week's poll, she trailed Mr. Campbell badly, but now she has largely closed that gap, with 52 per cent of respondents agreeing that she has such a vision, compared with the 57 per cent who view the Liberal Leader that way.

Ms. James appears to have neutralized another key negative plaguing the NDP campaign, namely the damage dealt to the party's environmentally friendly brand from its opposition to the Liberal carbon tax. The party has opened up a double-digit lead on the environmental issue, despite criticism from high-profile environmentalists and stinging attacks from the Green Party, which supports a carbon tax.

There is a potentially ominous finding for Mr. Campbell, widely judged to have stumbled during the debate when he told Ms. James, "this is a big job and it's hard to get a handle on it." Fifty-eight per cent of respondents said they found the Liberal Leader patronizing, a description that just 21 per cent said applied to Ms. James.

But there is some good news for the Liberals. Mr. Campbell still holds a commanding advantage on economic issues, with 50 per cent of respondents saying he is best suited to deal with the economy, more than double the 22 per cent who prefer Ms. James on that question.

However, that advantage disappears when voters are asked to consider how Liberal or NDP policies would affect them personally, with Ms. James and Mr. Campbell essentially tied.

Both parties have weapons to wield in the final days of the campaign, Mr. Marshall said. The NDP must continue to get voters to focus on their dislike of Mr. Campbell, who has seen a steep increase over the last week in the proportion of voters who say their opinion of him has worsened. Wooing wavering Green voters is also critical for the NDP, he said.

The Liberals face a tougher challenge, since they will need to pivot in coming days and alter their message. Although the party has a huge edge on the question of economic competence, the Liberals have failed to convince voters that NDP policies are a threat to their personal economic well-being, Mr. Marshall said.

The key to a Liberal victory will be to drive home the message that an NDP government would not just damage the abstract provincial economy, but that the party's policies would cost voters their own jobs, and hurt their own pocketbooks, he said.

Other polls have shown the Liberals with a much wider advantage, including a Mustel Group survey released yesterday indicating that the Liberals lead the NDP among decided voters, 47 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens trailing at 12 per cent. A Mustel poll at the outset of the campaign gave the Liberals a 17-point lead. The poll is considered to be accurate within 3.4 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the single-transferable-vote referendum proposal appears headed for defeat, with just 45 per cent of voters expressing support, well short of the threshold needed to secure approval.

The Angus Reid poll is an online survey of 1,013 adults, conducted from May 5 to May 6, and is considered to be accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Top two parties running neck and neck in B.C. election

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