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Rusty Bedsprings





Joined: 06 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 14, 2009 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Not really, there is a big difference between a country and a bunch of goat molesters hiding in a cave.


In some ways....




Quote:
You stated that the concept of MAD didn't work with Iran and North Korea because their leaders are crazy. I was pointing out that their leaders do not have absolute control.
If amadeemacantspellhisname has a dream in which the missing mufti ordered him to start a war, he would not have the power. He would need approval from the head Ayatolah.
If the leader of North Korea wanted to start a war, he would need the support of the military and party aparatus. Look at what happened when the US cut of those bank accounts that the North Korean elite used to buy their cavier.....Kim caved in really quick.


Ok, so your saying we should put sanctions on Iran?



Quote:
Not even close, he would be lucky to be in the top 10.


5th largest army in the world. 20 percent of men between 17 and 54 are in the army (yikes).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M.....orth_Korea [/quote]

I don't recognize wiki as a reputable site. Though nobody (any civilian) really knows the military strengths so...



Quote:
Why would Iran feel threatened by Israel ? Right now there is a remote chance Israel might try to strike their weapons program....but once it is developed it is unlikely. Their is one sure fire way to avoid an attack by Israel - don't bother Israel.


As I said in the post above, I think we are getting a bit off topic, unless I don't understand your argument.


Quote:
Russia does give a shit about its neighours joining NATO. Its a big deal to them and it has pissed them off.


Russia gives a shit to stop NATO but never has it cared to help it.
fiscalconservative





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Russia does give a shit about its neighours joining NATO. Its a big deal to them and it has pissed them off.


Russia gives a shit to stop NATO but never has it cared to help it.[/quote]

Russia and NATO cooperated on the disposal of unsafe nuclear material in Russia. They share information at various levels.
Russia does not gain much from a nuclear Iran (accept maybe a little trade). Maybe cut a deal, joint control (the Russian radar base) for turning the screws on Iran. Or maybe stop encouraging Georgia/Ukraine from joining NATO (what does the Black Sea have to do with the North Atlantic anyways ?).
IanM





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ballistic Missile Defense is useless, its a boondoggle and its a white element waste of money.

Okay then, now that I've said it. Its useful the same way NASA was in 1960-1972, it stimulates technological development.

We have had some form of ballistic missile defense since the 1960, and in the 1970s, the ABM Treaty was signed and that ruined it.

That being said, other technology does exist, and has existed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B.....ing_System - Look at this piece of technology, it is a missile defense system, apart of it anyways. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F.....temMap.png - In particular, look at that map. Not total coverage, however, in conjunction with large ground radars, we also have http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D.....rt_Program . This provides worldwide coverage. Proven, worldwide coverage of a nuclear missile launch. That is pretty good I do believe.

That being said, launch warning helps us. The more time that we have that has detected a launch, the more warning we have. Well, all of that being said, it doesn't help us as a nation.

Gone are the Regional Government bunkers, sold off to data centers and museums. (CFS Debert is being converted over into a Data Center for example), No longer do we have a National Command and Control Center underground, or anywheres outside of Ottawa. Even Canada's NORAD headquarters in North Bay isn't in an underground facility, it is an above ground facility.

All of that very susceptible to a Nuclear Attack. A lot more so than Underground facilities.

We can make a system that is 95% effective, however if 1 missile, and 1 missile gets through, the game is over. Yes, one missile is better than twenty getting through, however.

Even one nuclear blast will knock anyone off balance for long enough. A nuclear blast will cause enough damage to infrastructure, as well as to the population to destabilize the region.

Let us look at this for a moment - http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/.....page_2.htm , This was done by Steve Fox about the governing the UK after a Nuclear War. Now, it may not fit our analysis due to the fact that it was a nation wide nuclear strike, rather than a lone bomb, however lets adapt his final points, especially if one reads the entire document.

Anyone have a town that they don't like, for this example? Change the following to whatever town you like.

0500 - Fantasian forces have launched a limited nuclear attack via ballistic missiles at North America.
0501 - Defense Support Programme Satellites and the BMEWS System / Pave Paws radars pick up incoming missiles.
0503 - US President woken up, and briefed. The missiles are 10 minutes away from North America, there is 8 Missiles inbound, at New York, Washington, Boston, Halifax, Saint John, Portland, Norfolk Naval Base and Saint John's.
0506 - The US President orders the BMD system fired at the missiles.
0511 - Through the gauntlet of high altitude kill vehicles, THAAD, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense systems, manage to kill seven of the eight missiles.

The last missile is headed towards Saint John, and its vital oil refinery for the eastern seaboard.

0513 - The last missile detonates over Saint John New Brunswick with a force of 1 megaton. Immediately the downtown and South end is vaporized, ten thousand people are incinerated. The Irving oil refinery is hit by the shock wave and begins to burn, several tankers in the bay are also hit, some of them heavily damaged, some ran aground. As far as Hampton and Saint Andrews there is broken windows and shock damage.

So what happens to poor Saint John now, with its best improvement coming from an atomic fireball...

Well, the downtown is nothing but ruins, I am assuming that it would be the impact point, or out into the bay, the reason for this is to illustrate a point. The refinery is on fire, and all of a sudden, 150,000 people are trying to flee, well I'd say 100,000 at least, not to mention all the people in the country. So the news media kicks into action, and panic erupts all over North America, panic far surpassing the September 11th Attacks. All of a sudden millions of people are fleeing the cities. Phone and data lines in Saint John are down, the Mayor, Police Chief and Fire Chief are missing. The Rothesay police and the RCMP are trying to keep some sort of law and order as the results of electromagnetic pulse, as well as the loss of a lot of the electric grid take their toll on infrastructure. The Army reserve armories in Saint John's South End are vaporized, with the weapons, ammunition, vehicles, medical supplies, radios that were contained their in. The only sizable military support in the area is from Camp Gagetown, an hour to the north, however, the only problem is that 2 RCR is on deployment (Very good possibility), leaving Students from the Combat Training Center and Land Force Atlantic Area Training Center, 4 Engineer Support Regiment and the Royal Canadian Dragoon Squadron for any sort of immediate support. Luckily, most of 37 Brigade is still intact, with a light armour recce squadron available out of Moncton/Sussex, as well as an Infantry BattleGroup in Nova Scotia. Further away is sizable military assets, however they will have to be either flown in, or come in via vehicle.

Now then, of course the immediate response in the states is to of course to evacuate the president and other senior leadership, put the military on high alert and of course start a transition to war. Or at least some sort of response similar to 9/11. So, while thats going on, of course, the Prime Minister is on the line with that Ukranian company we lease heavy lift aircraft off of. The reason being of course, we more or less lack heavy lift aircraft, and we need the aircraft we have for such things as Search and Rescue, resupply of Task Force Afganistan. Now, the immediate government response.

While the Prime Minister is taking care of business to try and be able to move airlift, Parlement is of course reforming, as the Emergencies Act ( http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/showtdm/cs/E-4.5 ) will have to be imposed. The Premier and Attorney General of New Brunswick, hopefully have submitted a letter to the Chief of the Defense Staff in order to call out the Canadian Forces, or some part that he deems necessary in order to deal with the emergency at hand. (National Defense Act Part VI - Aid to Civil Power http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/s.....bo-ga:l_VI ) Section 2.76 of the National Defense Act is problematic, and always has been due to the following ;

Exception in case of certain reserves

276. Nothing in this Part shall be deemed to impose liability to serve in aid of the civil power, without his consent, on an officer or non-commissioned member of the reserve force who is, by virtue of the terms of his enrollment, liable to perform duty on active service only.

R.S., 1985, c. N-5, s. 276; R.S., 1985, c. 31 (1st Supp.), s. 60.

This essentially states that Reserve Forces can only serve on active service, and this of course can only be placed by an Order in Council as stated per Section 31



31. (1) The Governor in Council may place the Canadian Forces or any component, unit or other element thereof or any officer or non-commissioned member thereof on active service anywhere in or beyond Canada at any time when it appears advisable to do so

(a) by reason of an emergency, for the defence of Canada;

(b) in consequence of any action undertaken by Canada under the United Nations Charter; or

(c) in consequence of any action undertaken by Canada under the North Atlantic Treaty, the North American Aerospace Defence Command Agreement or any other similar instrument to which Canada is a party.

Let us not forget of course ;

32. Whenever the Governor in Council places the Canadian Forces or any component or unit thereof on active service, if Parliament is then separated by an adjournment or prorogation that will not expire within ten days, a proclamation shall be issued for the meeting of Parliament within ten days, and Parliament shall accordingly meet and sit on the day appointed by the proclamation, and shall continue to sit and act in like manner as if it had stood adjourned or prorogued to the same day.

R.S., c. N-4, s. 32.

So, for the majority of the elements in the region to be placed on active service, we would need quite a lot of legislation in place as well as Parlement intact. In the situation I described it was not the seat of government that was hit, however it just as easily could be. How would we deal with the legal issues then? The Military has the National Defense Act, which of course provides a legal framework to ensure people do their jobs, how will we deal with law enforcement, medical personnel, relief workers. They can say, well we don't want to do this, goodbye. The British actually had a set of laws ready to go incase of a nuclear attack, or if war was imminent.

Thus back to the situation at hand. What needs to happen here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transition_To_War - A British example, however it is important to look at none the less, as many of these things can and would be done in any sort of emergency. These would of course have a national impact, not to mention the fact that I am guessing there would be 1- A rushing of people to leave the country / disaster area. 2 - A surge of panic buying nation wide, as well as widespread transport shortages due to the particular geography of the region and the layout of transport systems.

Now then, I am sure that we would of course deploy military and civilian assets to help in this situation. So, what happens now, what would they need to do.

1 - Seal off the region, Highway 1, 2 and 7 would have to be cut off. Highway 7 is easy, as most of it goes through the Camp Gagetown training area, however the problem is that we would of course have a flood of refugees / displaced persons fleeing north. Will we have to deploy troops and law enforcement to prevent looting.

2 - Containment of fires, reduce secondary risks. Obviously we will have the good possibility of a firestorm within the city, many buildings are older, and most of the fire service would be hard pressed to stop a massive fire storm. Fire Equipment will have to be moved in from elsewhere, however even this is limited solution, as it will of course reduce fire coverage elsewhere. Sadly, we do not have a green goddess fleet to call upon. Nor do we have any major sort of fire plan.

3 - Contain the refugee problem. People are going to run, via train, boat, bus, car, on foot or horseback, its obvious. These people will more than likely be exposed to radioactive particles, or be injured. Leading to more exposure. We would need to set up temporary camps to ensure a further breakdown. Will we then of course start compulsory billeting, appropriation of houses, warehouses, etc? Has anyone done any studies on this, and do we have a framework.

4 - Provide emergency medical, food, water, shelter and welfare. This leads from problem 3, there is a good possibility that in this situation Point Lepreau will have sustained damage, or there will be damage to the electrical grid, this could lead to overtaxing of the electrical grid. As well, there is a good possibility of overloading of the telephone system due to the fact that Saint John will have a major exchange and trunk lines for the internet, obviously, Bell and Aliant will have to implement some sort of Telephone Preference Scheme, a system that is in place in the UK as well as the US. Now then, do we have the capacity to do so? Yes, we have the disaster assistance response team, yes we have field and construction engineer regiments within the military, yes we also have Military Field Ambulances. According to Medical Services in Battle we could theoretically with full equipment sustain 1500 causalities a day, assuming that there is a full medical services chain between the 3 Regular Force Field Ambulances, and possibly 1500 more causalities a day from the Reserve Field Ambulances, assuming of course we deployed all assets. This mind you, also assumes a proper evacuation of causalities. A question is, how is our stock of such things as Iodine tablets, Morphine, field dressings, etc. Food and Water of course we would have to answer, how are we going to sustain this level of treatment.

5 - Perform Security, Evacuation and Urban Search and Rescue Operations. Not everyone will evacuate of course, the elderly, the destitute, home and business owners, etc. One thing that we do not have in Canada is a large Urban Search and Rescue programme, we do really well with Wilderness, or Sea, or Northern Search and Rescue, however we cannot

6 - liaise with Civil and Provincial assets. How will we employ Saint John's Ambulance, The Red Cross, Religious groups in order to co-ordinate relief.

7 - Disposal of bodies and preventative medicine. This is vitally important after any major disaster. We will need to dispose of a massive amount of bodies in order to prevent disease and epidemics. As far as I know, Canada does not have any sort of capability to dispose of a mass amount of bodies in a timely and safe manner. FEMA has specially trained units for this, however we do not. We also do not have a reserve of supplies for this. What about water purification, mass feeding (conjoined with point four), Do we have stocks of water purification tablets, of flu shots, of tetanus shots, etc to provide? Do we also have a plan to dispose of bodies? I take it in the worst case, we could dig improvised mass graves, or mass cremations?

8 - Ensure the regular function of government and the economy. The most important question. In the situation I just described, we'd be looking at oil in the two hundred dollar range at least, if not higher, an uncapping of strategic reserves world wide. Do we have a strategic reserve? Do we have sufficient capacity to ensure the flow of oil? Do we have the legal framework in place to impose rationing nation wide? What if it was not Saint John, but the Port of Montreal, Halifax or Vancouver? Will we restrict movement across the country, as post attack fear will be high. People will flee their jobs, their homes all across the altantic, if not further. How will we keep people at work, legal arrangements? Closing highways?

9 - Move assets into position, set up a proper chain of command and logistics arrangement. How well have we planned for this? How well have we trained for this? A lot of the power is delegated to the provinces, perhaps it is time that we nationalized it.

The point that I am trying to make here is that the money we have invested in this system would be far, far more useful in developing a National Civil Defense programme, with dispersed stocks of material, rolling stock, resources, medicine as well as trained personnel to clean up the mess. This programme would more than likely cost us 10-20 billion annually, if not more to start up. Perhaps this could actually be folded into the National Defense budget, some of the points help them out (Material, Vehicles etc), Others could be cost shared with provincial governments (They do have the responsibility of health care services, Others with the Coast Guard and the Department of Emergency Preparedness).

It doesn't have to be a nuclear missile attack, it could be a suitcase nuclear device by a terrorist, or a biological weapon. The points above work regardless.
FF_Canuck





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the thoughtful post - you've obviously considered this kind of issue before. That said,
IanM wrote:
The point that I am trying to make here is that the money we have invested in this system would be far, far more useful in developing a National Civil Defense programme, with dispersed stocks of material, rolling stock, resources, medicine as well as trained personnel to clean up the mess...

I think it would be folly to look at this as an either / or proposition. There are very many government programs that are a great deal more wasteful and of far less benefit, that could be redirected to a civil defense program like you suggest.

As your own post suggests on analysis, 7 out of 8 missiles is better than 8 out of 8. It is also worth considering that our participation in the WMD program would have cost zero dollars, and zero sovereignty - it was essentially a gift from America, spurned by Paul Martin for puerile and childish reasons. In all likelihood, he would have accepted the offer if it came from a President Gore or President Kerry.
IanM





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps we should look at the idea of civil defense in another thread, I think it is the perfect economic stimulus we need.

I agree with you FF Canuck, 7 out of 8 is better than 8 out of 8, the problem of course is what we have now vice what was proposed. BMEWS, Pave Paws, Patriot Block 3 Missiles work well, perhaps we need to start working with the US to deploy them in urban areas.

I'm more worried what happens if we miss one, and how we will deal with it, which is the big question here.
IanM





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, I think me and FF Canuck mean that 7 out of 8 missiles destroyed is better than 0 out of 8 missiles destroyed.
FF_Canuck





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, I didn't catch my 'oops' until after you posted :D
IanM





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was talking to a friend on msn about it, he looked at the thread and pointed it out to me heh.
Mac





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IanM wrote:
Perhaps we should look at the idea of civil defense in another thread, I think it is the perfect economic stimulus we need.

Maybe not perfect but certainly better than throwing it away on social engineering exercises...

-Mac
Rusty Bedsprings





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fiscal con wrote:
Quote:
Russia gives a shit to stop NATO but never has it cared to help it.


Russia and NATO cooperated on the disposal of unsafe nuclear material in Russia. They share information at various levels.
Russia does not gain much from a nuclear Iran (accept maybe a little trade). Maybe cut a deal, joint control (the Russian radar base) for turning the screws on Iran. Or maybe stop encouraging Georgia/Ukraine from joining NATO (what does the Black Sea have to do with the North Atlantic anyways ?).[/quote]

exactly, russia lets NATO help it but it would never clean up toxic waste in France.
Rusty Bedsprings





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

darkstorme wrote:
Quote:
This gentleman is beyond a doubt the least coherent member of this board, and displays a level of knowledge pertaining to current world events that makes me ashamed of our high school system.


I think your words speak to your intellect in a way that sheds light on why I should not take your criticism seriously :roll:
fiscalconservative





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IanM wrote:
Perhaps we should look at the idea of civil defense in another thread, I think it is the perfect economic stimulus we need.

I agree with you FF Canuck, 7 out of 8 is better than 8 out of 8, the problem of course is what we have now vice what was proposed. BMEWS, Pave Paws, Patriot Block 3 Missiles work well, perhaps we need to start working with the US to deploy them in urban areas.

I'm more worried what happens if we miss one, and how we will deal with it, which is the big question here.


It might be a decent stimulus plan.....I guess it all depends on where you think the threat is coming from. For me, I think the bigger threat is debt, an aging population, globalization, etc.
FF_Canuck





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a pretty simple explanation of what 'just one' nuke could do, and why a nation like Iran or North Korea might bother launching 'just one': LINK
IanM





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In more detail ;

http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/.....page_2.htm
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