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When should Harper call an election?
Quickly after the Libs pick a new leader
22%
 22%  [ 5 ]
Late Spring Early Summer
22%
 22%  [ 5 ]
Try to keep parliment running as long as possible
54%
 54%  [ 12 ]
Total Votes : 22

Author Message
torian





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biggie rection wrote:
I say put forth a strong confidence motion right now - but something that is contentious - that the left won't accept but Canadians will hate them for if they force an election over it. Maybe its a bit early, but GST cut anyone? I got a call from the fund-raisers today, looks like they're ramping up the war machine... they're expecting it any time, and Harper is goading them to try it.

I'd love to see an election called before the libs pick a leader... that would be all too sweet. They would have to rush a leader in, lay down a solid policy in short notice, and all the scandals of the leadership race would still fresh..


or how about income splitting for families/pensioners?
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGuire wrote:
The gov't will fall on the budget


I don't think so. I think the Bloc will support it.

Of course it all depends on the polls in Quebec.
cbasu





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:51 am    Post subject: Timing Reply with quote

Will the Opp. allow the Conservatives to table their budget, spend weeks before and after promoting it on govt jets, and then go into an election? No.

Will the Bloc and the NDP, or the Conservatives, want the Liberals to regroup and refinance themselves after the election of a new leader? No.

Will the current polls dissuade any of the opposition parties (or the government) from going into an election? No.

Will the NDP want the Greens under May to get more traction over the next few months? No.

Will the Liberals want to go into an election without getting their leader some chance to settle in? Normally no, unless they can satisfy themselves that their frontrunners are sufficiently ready to jump right into an election.

Is it possible that the Bloc could prop up a Liberal-NDP government for at least a year? No.

Will the Quebec provincial election - probably set for April/May - and the Ontario provincial election - set for Oct/Nov - play a role in federal election timing? Yes - a federal party would not want to campaign 6-8 weeks before or after a provincial election.

Given all of the above, is it likely that the current minority government could fall either on the estimates or on a money bill (e.g. C-28) in the next 4-6 weeks? Yes.

Is it possible, therefore, that there will be another Feb/March election? Yes. In fact, I would consider that probability at better than 50-50.
palomino_pony





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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harper's minority government is doing better than a lot of people thought, especially compared to Martin's. Unlike Martin, who only planned to get into power and then had no clue what he wanted to do once he got it, Harper has a plan for running the nation and is sticking to it.

Unless the Green's do some serious vote splitting, I really don't see any party getting a majority in the next election, regardless of the timing. I don't know many Canadians, outside of political junkies and pundits, who want an election every year.

If it were not for the new Liberal leader, I would say try to hang in as long as possible, or at least call one after being in power for over a year.
TealTories





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Winston2004 wrote:
Quote:
When should Harper call an election?


Why should he do it?


I was asking the question whether or not he should. I am convinced that the opposition will vote against the budget in Feb or March. I guess I was asking whether or not he should do what the Liberals did to Stockwell Day and the CA. That is call an election right after they picked a leader.
Guelphfirst





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Late Spring.
Maybe by then i'll have recovered from the last election....
Ready to go within a few days if we had to though.
Blue Meanie





Joined: 20 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guelphfirst wrote:
Late Spring.
Maybe by then i'll have recovered from the last election....
Ready to go within a few days if we had to though.


I never understood why Canadians feel so hard done by to go and cast their vote. It takes about 15 minutes out of my day to do it.
Glenn
TealTories





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blue Meanie wrote:
Guelphfirst wrote:
Late Spring.
Maybe by then i'll have recovered from the last election....
Ready to go within a few days if we had to though.


I never understood why Canadians feel so hard done by to go and cast their vote. It takes about 15 minutes out of my day to do it.
Glenn


I dont know if that is what Guelphfirst meant, although I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

But I agree with you. People right now are dying (literally) for the right to vote and form their government. It makes me sick when the media in the last election made a big deal about the election timing because of weather or Christmas. Last election I volunteered probably 20 hours a week and I wasnt complaining.
Not only does it take 15 minutes but your employer is bound by law to give you 4 hours off to do it, and now there is early and mail in ballots etc.
We should send these winers to Iraq to vote. Going to the polls there could be a deadly experience. Now that would be a burden no -10 degrees and you havent got all you xmas shopping done.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a feeling that the Tories are going to wait till after the Liberals select their leader, and sit back and see the direction he takes the party in.

It would be better for the Conservatives to wait till Spring especially if Rae is elected.

At this point I agree that the election will be triggered with the budget, The Tories will make it VERY sexy to the Canadian people, tax cuts and all the trimmings but with something to goat the Lib's and Bloc into voting against it thus being able to enter an election claiming that "all we were doing was trying to keep the promises we were elected on, and the opposition stopped us" It will be easy to play off the Liberals as a party who has a new leader and wants to grab ahold of power again at any cost.

My shot in the dark guess:
March 15th - ish
Guelphfirst





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guelphfirst wrote:
Late Spring.
Maybe by then i'll have recovered from the last election....
Ready to go within a few days if we had to though.


I meant, as the CM in Guelph, after working several hundred volunteer hours, I'm still recovering.....
palomino_pony





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Lower Mainland, BC

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blue Meanie wrote:
I never understood why Canadians feel so hard done by to go and cast their vote. It takes about 15 minutes out of my day to do it.
Glenn


I don't think it is the actual act of voting the turns off Canadians, it is all the political advertising, pollsters, door knocking, and media blitz that accompanies an election. Same reason why people groan about Christmas- they just get sick of all the hype.

Plus, some people legitimately don't like seeing Elections Canada spend millions of dollars to run an election every 12-16 months, especially if we end up with another minority government, which is a very strong possibility at this point.

BTW, I live in the West Coast, so the whole "can't vote because of the snow" thing is pretty funny. How do you guys get your groceries and go to work?
Bleatmop





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

palomino_pony wrote:
Blue Meanie wrote:
I never understood why Canadians feel so hard done by to go and cast their vote. It takes about 15 minutes out of my day to do it.
Glenn


I don't think it is the actual act of voting the turns off Canadians, it is all the political advertising, pollsters, door knocking, and media blitz that accompanies an election. Same reason why people groan about Christmas- they just get sick of all the hype.

Plus, some people legitimately don't like seeing Elections Canada spend millions of dollars to run an election every 12-16 months, especially if we end up with another minority government, which is a very strong possibility at this point.

BTW, I live in the West Coast, so the whole "can't vote because of the snow" thing is pretty funny. How do you guys get your groceries and go to work?


I've never actually heard someone complain of that. I think its one of those media myths.
palomino_pony





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bleatmop wrote:
I've never actually heard someone complain of that. I think its one of those media myths.


Figured as much... it was more of a tounge in cheek comment... I'm not a big fan of the emoticons... :P
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