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mr12387
Joined: 21 Sep 2007
Posts: 228
     votes: 2
Location: Laval, Quebec
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Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:44 pm Post subject: The Dream Team |
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Here’s a list of 25 individuals who if they do their homework correctly and we put enough resources into can help pull off a decent majority the next time around without having to worry about the ‘wild card’ that is Quebec.
The Dream Team
Indicators:
*: New Candidate (All new candidates are placed in a riding they’ve run in before either federally or provincially)
‘:Chance of winning in next election may depend on incumbent’s choice to resign
(__%): Margin we lost by in the 2008 election
British Columbia:
1 Esquilmalt-Juan de Fuca – LIB (0.11%): Troy DeSouza
2 Burnaby-Douglas – NDP (1.69%): Ronald Leung
3 Vancouver South – LIB (1.84%): Wai Young
4 New Westminster-Coquitlam – NDP (3.00%): Yonah Martin
5 Newton-North Delta – LIB (5.51%): Sandeep Pandher
Alberta:
6 Edmonton-Strathcona – NDP (0.93%): Rahim Jaffer
PEI:
7 Malpeque – LIB (4.91%): Mary Crane
*8 Cardigan – LIB (23.21%): Pat Binns
Ontario:
9 Brampton West – LIB (0.24%): Kyle Seeback
10 Welland – NDP (0.96%): Alf Kiers
11 Brampton Springdale – LIB (1.58%): Parm Gill
12 Sault Ste. Marie – NDP (2.79%): Cameron Ross
13 Guelph – LIB (3.04%): Gloria Kovach
*’14 Mississauga South – LIB: (4.3%): Phil Green (I would bring him back)
15 Eglinton-Lawrence – LIB (5.2%): Joe Oliver
*16 Don Valley West – LIB (5.35%): John Tory
17 London North Centre – (5.96%): Paul Van Meerbergen
‘18 Ajax Pickering – LIB (6.43%): Rick Johnson
‘19 Kingston and the Islands – LIB (6.61%):Brian Abrams
*20 Nipissing-Timiskaming – LIB (12.21%): Mike Harris
Newfoundland
21 Avalon – LIB (10.12%): Fabian Manning
Territories:
22 Western Arctic – NDP (3.82%): Brendan Bell
New Brunswick:
*23 Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe – LIB (2.72%): Bernard Lord
Manitoba:
24 Elmwood-Transcona – NDP (5.44%): Thomas Steen
25 Winnipeg South Centre – LIB (5.99%): Trevor Kennerd
Additional Options:
Quebec:
26 Louis-Hebert – BLOC (7.91%): Luc Harvey
…And the ‘Piece de Resistance’
(Combination of dark humour / dreaming / needing to find someone for Nova Scotia)
Nova Scotia:
‘ 27 Kings-Hants – LIB (18.04%): Joe Clark |
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Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't see guys like Mike Harris, Pat Binns, or Joe Clark re-entering politics they might contribute in other ways. |
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:32 am Post subject: Re: The Dream Team |
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I have made the same argument in another thread, but did not present it as nice as you have. You are 100% correct: we don't need Quebec to get a majority. Gains in Quebec are 2 elections away and should be part of the end game after the CPC solidifies BC, gains in Ontario and makes inroads in the Atlantic provinces.
| mr12387 wrote: | British Columbia:
1 Esquilmalt-Juan de Fuca – LIB (0.11%): Troy DeSouza
2 Burnaby-Douglas – NDP (1.69%): Ronald Leung
3 Vancouver South – LIB (1.84%): Wai Young
4 New Westminster-Coquitlam – NDP (3.00%): Yonah Martin
5 Newton-North Delta – LIB (5.51%): Sandeep Pandher |
A couple of notes about the BC ridings:
1. Esquilmalt-Juan de Fuca - Keith Martin will be a tough nut to crack. DeSouza did a good job and was a lot closer than I thought. I find it odd that Martin left in the first place. He was somewhat comfortable with the Reform party and one could make the case that they were further to right than what the CPC is today.
2. Burnaby-Douglas - This is Svend Robinson's old riding. By all accounts Bill Siskay is a good local MP. I think that this riding was close due to the vote splitting. The Greens got 3000 votes and if you assume that half came from the NDP and half from the Liberals, than the margin is even bigger. With a bit hard work, this could be won but it would take another candidate. I suggest Lorne Mayencourt.
3. Vancouver South - I think Young could win this next time. I not sure if the Liberals got lazy and thought this would be a safe seat and did not bother to get the vote out or if the Green/NDP candidates ate up some Ujjal Dosanjh's votes. This would be a great victory.
4. New Westminster-Coquitlam - It has gone Reform/Alliance/Conservative in the past with Paul Forseth winning in 1993, 97, 00, and 04. Over 12 years! The only problem is that Dawn Black is a strong local candidate. Martin did a good job, but she was parachuted into the riding in order to help with the ethnic vote. She might be able to do it next time, but I would like to have a stronger local candidate. If we could get local boy Justin Morneau to quit playing baseball for the Twins....
5 Newton-North Delta - This riding puzzles me. I not sure if this riding truly supports Sukh Dhaliwal or if they are punishing the CPC for Grewal's past problems. Dhaliwal has an alleged history of shady past in municipal politics, has written a letter to a U.S. judge using House of Commons stationery in support of a convicted drug dealer, and supported Volpe in the Liberal leadership. Hopefully the people in Newton-North Delta get tired of voting for Liberal. Provincial Liberal MLA Kevin Falcon would be a strong candidate, but I believe he has his eyes set on the premier's job after Campbell hangs it up.
As you said, this comes down to hard work and getting out the vote on election day.
Any input on some of the other ridings? |
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:22 am Post subject: |
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25 Winnipeg South Centre – LIB (5.99%): Trevor Kennerd - this is my riding, and you're absolutely right. if all of our known supporters had made it out, we would have beat Anita Neville. She also engaged in some low-ball politics to sqeak by with her smallest margin of victory yet.
With Shelly Gover winning St Boniface, there is now a Conservative to the west of us (Fletcher), the south of us (Bruinooge) and the east of us (Glover). I really believe that the nest time is the charm for this riding.
24 Elmwood-Transcona – NDP (5.44%): Thomas Steen - this riding should have been ours this time. Thomas Steen is a perfect star candidate to run here and the campaign was very well organized. I heard that Steen might be a little too shy for public office though. (he wouldn't exactly dazzle people while door-knocking)
This riding is a huge middle class and lower middle class unionized area. The current sitting MP is an old MLA rep for the riding. He is extremely left wing. If we can keep Steen campaigning throughout this parliament or get a new, YOUNG, strong male to start now, it can be ours next time as well. |
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kwlafayette

Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 5698
  votes: 27
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| triple M wrote: | | I don't see guys like Mike Harris, Pat Binns, or Joe Clark re-entering politics they might contribute in other ways. |
Joe Clark [retty much burned his bridges. i for one would be resentful if they let him back in. |
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cosmostein

Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 3207
   votes: 13
Location: Toronto, Ontario
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:28 am Post subject: |
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John Tory couldn't win a seat in a Provincial election in the 416's.
However with that said, Don Valley West is perhaps our best chance to win a 416 federally, and since the current MP will be sitting for the first time perhaps he is vulnerable.
Perhaps he would make a better lieutenant then leader, and it would allow Frank Klees to run the Provincial PC party.
Hmmmmmmm, I like it.
As for Mississauga South, which is my home riding as much as I think Phil is a great guy and I campaigned for him in 2004 and 2006, he was a great candidate when "The Four Sisters" or the Lakeview Generating Station was an huge issue in the riding.
There was a fear that it would be not be shut down in 2004, and a fear that they would build something equally terrible IE natural gas-fired combined cycle power plant was a HUGE factor in 2006.
Phil was a champion of that issue, now all that is left on that site is rubble and we wait for the first condo's to go up.
Now it goes back to being Szabo's riding, Szabo the most Conservative Liberal in their caucus who has has run in the riding since 1980 and won every time since 1993, Szabo who three times has been declared "Canada's hardest working MP".
If it was anyone else Mississauga South would be Blue.
Want Mississauga South? The solution is simple. Don Cherry is a resident of Mississauga South (all be it right on the cusp)
Run Cherry in Mississauga South, |
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cosmostein

Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 3207
   votes: 13
Location: Toronto, Ontario
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:30 am Post subject: Re: The Dream Team |
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| mr12387 wrote: |
New Brunswick:
*23 Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe – LIB (2.72%): Bernard Lord
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Do we use him in New Brunswick? or do we run him near his childhood home in Quebec and make him that Lieutenant that we need? |
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Mac

Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 5485
   votes: 35
Location: John Baird's riding...
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: |
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| kwlafayette wrote: | | Joe Clark [retty much burned his bridges. i for one would be resentful if they let him back in. |
Agreed. Likewise, John Tory isn't someone I would welcome as a candidate.
-Mac |
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cosmostein

Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 3207
   votes: 13
Location: Toronto, Ontario
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: |
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| Mac wrote: | | kwlafayette wrote: | | Joe Clark [retty much burned his bridges. i for one would be resentful if they let him back in. |
Agreed. Likewise, John Tory isn't someone I would welcome as a candidate.
-Mac |
I will be the first to say that I would not be doing back flips over it, but its not like the CPC is not already populated with "Soft" Tories anyway.
If we want to win a 416, maybe we have to give Toronto voters a bone. |
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kwlafayette

Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 5698
  votes: 27
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| Toronto voters are wrong, why should we give them a home? They have to realize they are wrong before they can start voting intelligently. 6 or 7 more terms voting in Miller and such should give them a clue. |
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cosmostein

Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 3207
   votes: 13
Location: Toronto, Ontario
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: |
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| kwlafayette wrote: | | Toronto voters are wrong, why should we give them a home? They have to realize they are wrong before they can start voting intelligently. 6 or 7 more terms voting in Miller and such should give them a clue. |
While I enjoy watching Toronto become a socialist cesspool, the stink can be smelt from Mississauga now.
Perhaps giving them a MP that will help them ease into the Conservative mindset may help? |
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SFrank85

Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 2232
  votes: 4
Location: Toronto - Scarborough Southwest
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:22 am Post subject: |
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| That liberal Joe Clark? Keep him out! |
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ezbeatz

Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1134
     votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Vaughan |
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| If Julian Fantino steps down as the OPP Commissioner, the Federal Conservatives should tap him to run in Vaughan. Bevilaqua saw his 20,000 vote lead in 2006 dwindle to 8,000. A high profile candidate like Fantino would knock him off. Besides, scuttle butt says Bevilaqua is stepping down in the next two years so he can run as Mayor of Vaughan. |
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mr12387
Joined: 21 Sep 2007
Posts: 228
     votes: 2
Location: Laval, Quebec
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: |
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Keep the suggestions and the criticisms coming. I truly believe we can put together the best slate of candidates ever seen in Canadian history the next time around.
Here are some other possibilities for new candidates. Take everything with a grain of salt, they are just possibilities – some of them aren’t very likely. I’m just throwing things out there. And even if some of our star power doesn’t have the greatest chance of winning it will help us in other ridings where the chances are greater or where we only won by a slim margin.
New Brunswick:
Madawaska-Restigouche: Jeannot Volpe
Ontario:
Ottawa Centre: John Manley
Newfoundland:
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor: Rick Hillier |
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: The Dream Team |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | mr12387 wrote: |
New Brunswick:
*23 Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe – LIB (2.72%): Bernard Lord
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Do we use him in New Brunswick? or do we run him near his childhood home in Quebec and make him that Lieutenant that we need? |
No he should not run in Quebec because he is too much associated with Nouvelle-Brunswick (which is a good thing). He should of course campaign in Quebec a lot.
Nor should he run in Moncton which we might be able to pick up anyway.
He should run in Northern New Brunswick in Acadie - Bathurst (against Godin), or in Beausejour (against LeBlanc). They both border Quebec and we would be unlikely to win them without him.
Having won in one of those challenging ridings he could then get a high-profile cabinet position, and then be made deputy-PM after the following election, and then PM in the one after that.
Slow but steady and we might then get to have a couple of back-to-back majorities with him, by which time the entire political landscape and composition of seats in parliament will have irrevocably changed and we will be able to stop worrying about Quebec so much.
In the meantime Bernier has to be back in a high profile cabinet position, but both deputy-PM and 'Lieutenant' status are not on the cards for him anymore. I don't think the 'Lieutenant' angle actually sells well here anyway. What we really need to do here is to find a lot more down-home populist egalitarian good-ole-boy petit-gars star local candidates. Not lawyers. Maybe some radio or arts personalities. Or doctors or vets. Will try to find some likely winning candidates for Quebec (this is going to be really slow and painfully difficult to do).
Last edited by paulalexdij on Fri Oct 17, 2008 11:52 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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