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plantguy





Joined: 27 Jul 2007
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Location: Lower Economy, Nova Scotia

PostPosted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:15 pm    Post subject: oil prices Reply with quote

WorldView: Falling oil prices to turn Canada’s economy upside-down
BY JIM DONNELLY, TRANSCONTINENTAL MEDIA
The Nova Scotia Business Journal


OTTAWA – Export Development Canada said Thursday it expects oil prices to plummet in late 2008 and 2009, sending Canada's energy sector – and its exports – also crashing earthward. EDC projected oil prices, trading at almost US$150 a barrel just two weeks ago, to drop to around $100 by year's end and to less than $90 by early next year. The agency added speculation played a large role in the unprecented rise in oil prices this year.

"While the EDC recognizes that global supply and demand for crude is tight, we see signs that a large price correction is on the horizon," EDC chief economist Peter Hall said in a release. But while that might be good news for your gas tanks, it's anathema for Canadian exporters riding a wave of high-priced commodities. The agency forecasts Canadian exports to drop one percent in 2009, a seismic shift from the projected 4.2 per cent gain this year.

"The gain of four per cent in exports in 2008 is actually an energy price story," continued Hall. "When all price effects are removed, Canadian exports are actually on track to tumble by four per cent this year. "Since our spring global export forecast, there hasn't been much good news for Canadian exporters," he continued. "Losses due to the U.S. sub-prime crisis and its spill over effects into Canada continue to mount, the impact of soaring commodity prices upon consumers continues to increase, and proof of slowing global production is rampant."

Hall said demand for oil is likely to lessen somewhat as the world economy slows. He added that the Energy Information Administration, a section of the U.S. Department of Energy, has also forecast a doubling of OPEC's surplus capacity. – OBJ



What is the break even price for tar sands oil?
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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votes: 35
Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 6:45 pm    Post subject: Re: oil prices Reply with quote

plantguy wrote:
What is the break even price for tar sands oil?

It used to be around $85 (from memory) but that was a couple of years ago. Not sure what it is now. Since there's been extensive development, the break-even should be down.

-Mac
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 3360
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votes: 17
Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 9:06 pm    Post subject: Re: oil prices Reply with quote

Mac wrote:
plantguy wrote:
What is the break even price for tar sands oil?

It used to be around $85 (from memory) but that was a couple of years ago. Not sure what it is now. Since there's been extensive development, the break-even should be down.

-Mac


That was the figure I remembered as well. It's also worth noting that American exploration companies are going forward with projects for shale-oil - if they think they can meet the profit point, there's a very good chance the same will hold for tarsands oil.
JBG





Joined: 03 Oct 2007
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Location: NYC Area

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:11 pm    Post subject: Re: oil prices Reply with quote

FF_Canuck wrote:
Mac wrote:
plantguy wrote:
What is the break even price for tar sands oil?

It used to be around $85 (from memory) but that was a couple of years ago. Not sure what it is now. Since there's been extensive development, the break-even should be down.

-Mac


That was the figure I remembered as well. It's also worth noting that American exploration companies are going forward with projects for shale-oil - if they think they can meet the profit point, there's a very good chance the same will hold for tarsands oil.
How ar ethe tar sands doing now at the current $80 price?
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:18 pm    Post subject: Re: oil prices Reply with quote

JBG wrote:
How ar ethe tar sands doing now at the current $80 price?

In some cases, development has stalled. In others, it continues.

The current government of Alberta decided to take "their fair share" from the oil companies, causing a sharp decline in development. Saskatchewan elected a new conservative government which loosened some of the environmental restrictions to allow for oil exploration and exploitation. They're being very careful, of course, to protect the prairie seal hunt and the prairie oyster fields.

-Mac
JBG





Joined: 03 Oct 2007
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Location: NYC Area

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:22 pm    Post subject: Re: oil prices Reply with quote

Mac wrote:
They're being very careful, of course, to protect the prairie seal hunt and the prairie oyster fields.
I thought Saskatchewan was on the water.
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 5500
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votes: 35
Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:26 pm    Post subject: Re: oil prices Reply with quote

JBG wrote:
I thought Saskatchewan was on the water.

That's why they're being careful. Oil floats on water once it's freed from the sand. It'd make an awful mess of things if they weren't careful.

-Mac
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