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Riley W





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:52 pm    Post subject: Alberta Leader's Debate 2008 Reply with quote

So I watched all of it. :)

Well my snyopsis is the following:

Kevin Taft came off as an angry old man. I think he did poorly. The Alberta Liberals needed to deliver that knockout punch to Ed Stelmach, but they never were able to do that.

Ed Stelmach obviously isn't that great of a public speaker, and is not a very inspiring or charismatic man. He came off quiet, but he came across with his points, and did okay.

As for Paul Hinman and the Wildrose Alliance, Mr. Hinman did well tonight in my opinion! He talks a bit fast, but I would say he is the most charismatic out of all them and he hit home some good points. I liked how he kept on the ball about "throw money at more programs" and hitting home the point that we need to give tax breaks, not throw money at more programs. And the daycare point would have come off good for the rural areas, where (quite frankly) the Wildrose Alliance has its only chance. But it was an achievement for Mr. Hinman to be even included in that debate.

Mason and the NDP, well obviously he is the most comfortable up their, but the NDP is pretty irrelevant.

So I guess I would say the "winner" tonight would be the W.A. for the good performance and good publicity, he came off as a viable conservative alternative.

Again in my opinion the best situation would be PC Minority, with balance of power to the W.A., but to be realistic I predict a decreased PC Majority, with a handful of rural seats going to the W.A. (possibly giving them party status in the Legislature), NDP hanging onto their seats, and the A.B. Libs maybe gain a small number of seats in Calgary and Edmonton.
Craig
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2008 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I live in Calgary and I've seen more Alliance signs than any other party. It is very encouraging. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Alliance make strong showings in some urban ridings. My riding is represented by Chris Jukes. He is very well spoken. And his wife (who is black incidentally for all those knee jerk liberals who like to cast accusations of racism our way) is very articulate and motivated. She will be a big help to him. Do I think he will win? Probably not. But I think he will garner a significant share of the vote (15-20%).
Riley W





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are some interesting clips from the Calgary Herald:

Quote:
The biggest winner might have been Wildrose Alliance Leader Paul Hinman, who realized the most improvement in the opinion of would-be voters.


Quote:
Still, Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives continue to enjoy a notable lead overall, with 34.6 per cent of Albertans surveyed saying they would vote for his party if an election were held today.

Kevin Taft's Liberals found 23.1 per cent support among respondents, followed by Hinman's Wildrose Alliance (7.9 per cent), Brian Mason's NDP (7.4) and George Read's Green Party (4.4), while 22.7 per cent were undecided.


I'd love to see the NDP put into 4th place, and the W.A. 3rd place.

Quote:
The only politician to get a significant bump from his performance was Hinman, who saw 31 per cent of peoples' opinions improve and 21 per cent worsen, while 38.9 per cent stayed the same.

It was the first time the Wildrose Alliance leader appeared in a televised debate, giving him mass exposure during prime time.

"Hinman did himself a lot of good simply by being there," said David Taras, a political analyst at the University of Calgary.

He was legitimized by being in the debate. . . . And if he did anything to take votes away from the Tories, then that may be significant."


Quote:
All parties lost and gained supporters, but the Tories lost the most, while the Wildrose Alliance was the biggest gainer, Tremblay said.


Quote:
The largest number of switchers went to Paul Hinman of the Wildrose Alliance, with the Liberals picking up the next biggest crew of defectors.


Quote:
In overall impression of debate performance, the poll shows one surprising gainer - Paul Hinman of the Wildrose Alliance. His approval rating rose by a remarkable 10 per cent.


Quote:
Hinman won the first round just by showing up for the debate and proving he doesn't have one eye in the middle of his forehead.

He then pleased many viewers with a clear right-wing stance that set him sharply apart from all the other leaders.

There's still a strong following for those views among 10 to 20 per cent of the Alberta public. And many of these people might be starting to see Hinman as their standard-bearer.


Quote:
If it does, though, Wildrose could bleed enough support away from the Tories to elect a candidate here and there, and help a few Liberals slide into office in urban ridings.


I take it back! Their may be a possibility for a PC Minority with W.A. holding the balance of power. He did well during that debate, and I think they could pick up a handful of seats (and oust the NDP into irrelevancy).

This is an exciting election :)
Riley W





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

National Coverage too!

Quote:
Wildrose Alliance's Hinman full of surprises
Kevin Libin, National Post
Posted: February 22, 2008, 4:02 PM

At first, the merger between the Wildrose Party of Alberta and the Alberta Alliance last month looked like a non-event. Wildrose, created in June, 2007, had survived on its own less than seven months and had no official leader or candidates. The Alliance, with just one lonely MLA and a history of revolving-door leadership, wasn’t in much better shape. On the cultural impact scale, the creation of the Wildrose Alliance might have measured below last week’s matrimonial merger between Gary Coleman and the woman who once sold the child star’s sweatpants on eBay.

Some remarkable things have happened since: the merger of two marginal parties to the right of the ruling PCs managed to garner a heap of press coverage (albeit still well below that of the Gary Coleman nuptials). Wildrose Alliance leader Paul Hinman now shows up in the newspaper daily as the guy reporters count on for the most combative quotes of a generally bloodless election race. An Angus Reid poll released Thursday now puts the Wildrose Alliance ahead of the NDP among decided voters, with 10% support province-wide. Finally, Mr. Hinman made some kind of impression in last night’s leaders debate. “Here’s one thought everyone might agree on,” the Calgary Herald’s provincial columnist, Don Braid, writes. “Paul Hinman, the Wildrose Alliance leader, established a clear, crisp, identity as the spokesman for Alberta’s orphaned small c-conservatives.” One Tory organizer last night even admitted he thought Hinman was “winning” midway through. And here’s an amalgam of quotes from “average Albertans” interviewed by the Edmonton Journal after the debate:

“I was quite surprised with Hinman ... as a speaker, he did a darn good job ... staked out his ground quite clearly ... I was surprised by Hinman’s performance; [it was] different from the other parties, and I think that people who might be disaffected Tories in rural areas might take a look at him ... Hinman surprised me the most. He just came out of nowhere and he was very concise ...”

Such is the benefit of lowered expectations: there’s lots of room for upside. And as long as Mr. Hinman can do a half-decent job this election, he’ll continue to surprise people.

Don’t think we’re getting carried away here: The Wildrose Alliance will not win this election. It will not come close to winning this election, and it will be lucky to get more than a handful of seats. Still, clearly, things are changing for Mr. Hinman’s party. His Alberta Alliance party’s merger with the Wildrose Party lacked any real meaning, but symbolically, it gave the Alliance, which had earned something of an oddball reputation over the year from its eccentric founder and former leader, Randy Thorsteinson, a new brand. The name isn’t great, but at least replacing “Alberta Alliance” with “Wildrose Alliance” makes it sound less like the kind of group that might be led by Stockwell Day and more like an organization of arborist activists. What’s more, the very fact that the Alberta Alliance, dismissed as a fringe, merged with someone, anyone, can send a signal to voters and the media that the party may be broader than they thought. These are the things that happened when the Canadian Alliance merged with the Progressive Conservatives federally, and it’s happening on a smaller scale here, too.

To further keep things in perspective, that Angus Reid poll above doesn’t account for the something like 1 in 5 Albertans that are undecided in this race. That’s a huge number, and if these undecideds can be bothered to vote, they will make a big difference. Tory strategists know these are their former guys, now bored, disengaged and maybe even a bit ticked off with the PCs, and it’s their job to inspire these people to keep coming out to vote Tory. If they don’t hurry, these are the same people that will pay a lot more attention to Mr. Hinman. It won’t make a big difference this election. But as the PCs in Ottawa discovered, once a new party starts coming on stronger because enough people are tired and fed up with the old one, it tends not to go away easily.
SFrank85





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I watched the debate on CPAC live, and Paul Hinman made some great points.
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Alberta Leader's Debate 2008

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