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Which Liberal candidate would be best for the Tories?
Bob Rae
55%
 55%  [ 19 ]
Michael Ignatieff
14%
 14%  [ 5 ]
Stéphane Dion
20%
 20%  [ 7 ]
Gerard Kennedy
8%
 8%  [ 3 ]
Total Votes : 34

Author Message
Donald Hughes





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
A lot more Progressive Conservatives would have went with Martin if he hadn't gone off the deep end in terms of spending. I can't say for certain, but I would bet he would have faired better if he had made debt reduction a larger part of his strategy.
I don't think there is any evidence for this. The debt had already ceased to be an important structural issue by 2003 (at latest) and Canada was probably in one of the best public debt positions in the world. Regardless, Martin's budgeting would have continued to lead to significant debt relief, while allowing the debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to drop quite rapidly over time. The point is, show me what money he would have put towards the debt that would have won him hundreds of thousands of net votes. I don't see it.
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might be right. Never the less, the move to the left strategy was intended to push out the NDP and it failed to do so. The NDP had a very strong showing at the polls. But moving to the left did open the door to Harper. He was able to run as a centrist and was successful doing so. Perhaps it was a damned if you do damned if you don't situation for Martin. Perhaps there was no successful strategy.
Donald Hughes





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PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I said, I think it was less targeted towards the NDP-in-itself as it was targeted towards the broadly social-democratic Canadian public. This was intended to polarize between Harper and Martin. To some degree, this worked, and Harper received a modest minority of public support in both recent elections. But Martin could not wriggle out of his high expectations and Harper ran a very simplistic campaign. The result, again, was that the majority of the public voted either NDP, Green or Liberal, or they often intended a social-democratic voice with the Bloc Quebecois. We should also remember that Harper's successes in Ontario put him on par with Eve's defeat in terms of popular support. But again, this is the parliamentary side of politics, there are more fundamental forces at work.
Brian Smith





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Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I previously thought that Bob Rae would be the best candidate for the Tories as I thought that he would scare off centrists and Ontarians who remember his time in power. But, I have become more wary. Bevilacqua's shift to Rae, despite the fact that he may not have coat tails, raises concerns. It shows that centrist Liberals are ready to support Rae. Rae will make fewer rookie mistakes than Iggy or Kennedy and Rae does have an appeal to many in the NDP who may hold their nose in an attempt to remove the Conservatives.

Conclusion. Iggy may actually turn out to be the best for the Tories since he will scare off soft lefties and split the left wing vote. He also can be depended upon to make more rookie mistakes.
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Michael Ignatieff

He is not a pathetic leftist and he is reasonable.
Mac





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At the risk of offending my friend, Red Tory, I'm going to use a line I tormented him with more than a few times...

Run, Hedy, Run!! Hedy has almost rock-star appeal as a Liberal. Her fans can call themselves "Hedy-heads" but instead of holding up bic lighters at her campaign speechs, they could burn crosses!!

Now my comic relief duty is done, back to the debate with this thought:

One thing is certain- none of the candidates, even the front runners, comes to the table without baggage.

Thanks for the interesting analysis, gents.

-Mac
pseudodenis





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My pick's on Iggy.

Strategy:
He would split the libs on foreign policy and drive a whole bunch to the NDP. Harper can mention during the debates, "as Prof I and I agree substantially on X", and do it smiling all along.

Policy:
a) At the same time, Canada's 'trudeaupian' place in the international world has to be rethought (that is, warm sentiments, with no foreign aid and no significant troop deployment) over a long period so that a new, broadly held consensus emerges among your average canadian and who better to make Harper look reasonable than 'a respected academic [scil. pinko, effeminate, utterly non-scarey book worm] '?
b) It would also raise the level of debate and media coverage.
c) Not only would Iggy and co (couldn't say how much of his caucus, but...) provide some votes on some foreign policy issues, but also, simply through the fact it is occuring, the Canadian general consensus on these issues would inch (or centimetre) right. Talk the talk, walk the walk, would become, er, common sense. Or to put it another way, Canada has always seen itself as being helpful internationally (Lester B. was a long, long time ago...), now it can legitimately feel this.
d) Building credit with our southern cousins, so that if we need something (a la softwood), we can actually act in canadian self-interest.

(Speaking of credit: you heard it here first (?): in the next two years, Harper leads negotiations on the US/Aussie and other AE Asian countries' other-kyoto programme, playing Mulroney to Regan's fiddle for acid rain. This would play into the next Republican presidency which wants to fake a bit left and also distance itself from the Bushies, while also using a very popular (and commen sensical) idea. But this is another thread, isn't? Yes and no.)

e) I know this is a hypothetical 'what if' situtation: maybe the NDP might have to formulate something remotely articulate relative to helping people who are being shot at and who have their basic rights trodden on. Say the sudaneese or a women in taliban Afghanistan? Ok, ok, one can dream.

~Dave (an unknown academic)
McGuire





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iggy would be best. If he wins in December, Christmas will have come 3 weeks early for Jack! b/c left-wing Liberals will flee to the NDP in droves, thus weakening the Liberals to the point where they couldn't possibly win an election ever again.

As for Rae, at one time I woudda been celebrating a Bob Rae victory but then I heard a saying that has really stuck with me & I think of it every time I think about Bob Rae as Liberal leader that sometimes when God wishes to curse us, he does so by answering our prayers. Don't count him out just yet.
PhantomObserver





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you mean, "which candidate do the Tories have the best chance of scoring a majority?" then the answer would be Bob Rae. He's been out of the limelight outside Ontario for the better part of a decade, he still hasn't dealt substantially with the mistakes he made as Ontario premier, and the left would go through Moebius strips trying to figure out how to support him other than the "he's not Harper" meme.

However, if you mean "which candidate could easily govern with a conservative agenda?" then the answer would be Ignatieff. His foreign policy is already a point of identification with the Tories and if he's held to a minority, his lack of experience would at least make him willing to negotiate for support on economic and foreign policy.
shlemazl





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We need to win seats either in Ontario or in Quebec. I voted for Bob, because he is going to be the best at delivering us seats in Ontario.
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shlemazl wrote:
We need to win seats either in Ontario or in Quebec. I voted for Bob, because he is going to be the best at delivering us seats in Ontario.


I wouldn't be so sure. Demographics have changed in the past 14 or so years. Many NDPers will vote Liberal with Bob at the helm. The only question is how many Liberals will join Harper? I'm guessing with the media constantly portraying Harper as Bush's puppet not many. Bob won't help us in Ontario me thinks.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGuire wrote:
Iggy would be best. If he wins in December, Christmas will have come 3 weeks early for Jack! b/c left-wing Liberals will flee to the NDP in droves, thus weakening the Liberals to the point where they couldn't possibly win an election ever again.

As for Rae, at one time I woudda been celebrating a Bob Rae victory but then I heard a saying that has really stuck with me & I think of it every time I think about Bob Rae as Liberal leader that sometimes when God wishes to curse us, he does so by answering our prayers. Don't count him out just yet.


Yes, one must always remember that with a democracy, people always get exactly the government they deserve. The same will hold true for the Liberal party.
Neocon Recovery





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ultimately, Bob Rae or Stephane Dion would be best for the Conservatives because, as has been mentioned many times before, it would polarize the vote for many Canadians as a conservative-progressive fight. Three considerations, though:
i) While I would love a polarized political slugfest with the progressives, would that be best for us electorally? I mean, a deep struggle between a strong NDP and weakened Liberals helps result in stronger electoral victories for the CPC. On the other hand, bringing out the consequences of their votes more explicitly could attract a higher voter turnout and bring more reliable voting patterns from socially and economically conservative voters.
ii) the Quebec factor: Only in the last election, where the Conservatives picked up the former Creditiste ridings (by and large) has ideology become a serious factor in Quebec politics. With the national question dominating the political scene in Quebec, the national Conservative and New Democratic parties have been largely left out, while many of their traditional supporters or sympathizers have aligned themselves with the federalists or nationalists. Likewise provincially, the right wing Action Democratique and the left Quebec Solidaire have been likewise frustrated. The operative consideration here is whether there is a greater Conservative vote to be gained here, or have we capped its potential.
iii) Michael Ignatieff would be the worst scenario for the Conservatives in terms of optics. Particularly in debates, Stephen Harper is virtually unassailable and readily appears as the most intelligent- even as against the not unskilled Gilles Duceppe and Paul Martin (at least in rhetoric). Unlike Rae or the other candidates, Ignatieff is willing to defend strong positions and does not have simple liabilities to dismiss his candidacy.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clearly Rae,

I am stunned that the Liberals seem to think that Ontario has forgot about "Rae Days" "Photo Radar" and a wealth of other quality things that were passed under that NDP government. Ontario at large has a "fear" of Stephen Harper. The Liberals did a serviceable job in 2004 of pushing the idea that if the Liberals got anything short of a majority and the Conservatives had some power that Stephen Harper would eat a baby on the steps of Parliament before every session, then in 2006 a Harper government of any kind would rob a woman of her right to chose, put a draft in place sending our children to Iraq, and that Soldiers would be in the streets of Toronto curbing gang violence. Ontario has seen what Harper can do in power, and they have seen what Rae can do in power given both those options I suspect that Ontario on mass would take the jagged "blue pill" rather then the red one.

In terms of what is best for my political interests, it would be Ignatieff.
On the ballot it may as well read:

Conservative Party of Canada (A)
Conservative Party of Canada (B)
New Democratic Party
Green Party of Canada

He seems to have a plan, and the way that many of the "old liberals" are tossing their support behind Rae I get the feeling that Ignatieff's liberal party does not include many of the liberals currently enjoying their fourth or fifth terms in office. He stances are generally that of a Progressive Conservative and I have no issue with that, it would make passing bills a lot easier in a minority government with no fear of the NDP hijacking tax payer dollars for their cause of the week.
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Which Liberal candidate would be best for the Tories?

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