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kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:58 am    Post subject: The Greens, popular vote, and the polls. Reply with quote

The Greens got 8% of the popular vote. How does that compare to what the polls said?
gc





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty close. Why?
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, you hear about polls with the Greens polling at 13% or 16% nationally, then you see that in an actual election, they get 2%, or 3%, or 8%. I have a theory that the polling companies are having trouble with the Greens.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The latest polls prior to last night had the Green's at 11 - 12% in Ontario,
So they shed about 4% at the polls.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They would have actually got some seats if there vote held. Strange how their vote never holds. They are like the Maple Leafs of Canadian politics.
gc





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The latest polls prior to last night had the Green's at 11 - 12% in Ontario,
So they shed about 4% at the polls.


Another poll put them at 3% (link)

So they gained 5% according to that poll...

Overall though, the polls showed pretty close to 8% (give or take) (link)
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So are we saying that + or - 5% is an acceptable level of certainty in polls? Is the level of certainty even that high? I think we really are in an era of inaccurate opinion polling. Polling companies have not figured out how to deal with the Internet, or cell phones yet.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gc wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
The latest polls prior to last night had the Green's at 11 - 12% in Ontario,
So they shed about 4% at the polls.


Another poll put them at 3% (link)

So they gained 5% according to that poll...

Overall though, the polls showed pretty close to 8% (give or take) (link)


That Environics poll was VERY odd, as it was the lowest the Greens had polled in nearly three years.

And the poll prior and after where both 6 - 8 % higher.
gc





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
So are we saying that + or - 5% is an acceptable level of certainty in polls? Is the level of certainty even that high? I think we really are in an era of inaccurate opinion polling. Polling companies have not figured out how to deal with the Internet, or cell phones yet.


Any given poll might be off by a few percent, but if you look at the trend it's pretty close.

If you average all of the polls taken in October, you get 7.7%
If you average all of the polls taken in September + October, you get 8.2%

Pretty close to 8% if you ask me...
gc





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find SES polls are usually pretty good.

The last SES poll gave: Liberals 43, PC 31, NDP 18, Green 9.

All within one percentage point.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just went and joined the SES townhall. That is the SES online polling presence.
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The Greens, popular vote, and the polls.

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