Posted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:52 pm Post subject: Ceasefire too soon...how long shall it last?
So the world was told this last week that hezbollah has 25000 rockets and - a continued desire to use them.
Shame on the world for dropping the ball on this issue [with all the phoney outrage] for not [helping] letting Israel complete the task - during the conflict - of bringing and end to the irregular fighting.
Such a situation now isn't it - of course - hezbollah haven't changed their minds about anything - they intend to attack again.
Just like Hamas - they are not 'ever' going to recognize Israel's right to exist.
When this ceasefire fails and it shall - will the free world then at some point understand that as groups - hezbollah and hamas - have no right to exist.
They are irregular fighting groups and as such do not have the legitimacy and honor needed to do the right thing - not now and - not ever.
Imagine you are Israel and you're having to make peace with such a recklessly determined collective - one that doesn't think you have a right to exist - what a stranded starting point! Can people see what that might be like?
They learned that those rockets they have are pretty much useless. Sure, they can make people hide in the shelters, but they were hoping to kill thousands, and force a total capiyulation. So, I say the ceasefire will last for as long as it takes them to develop/acquire a more effective weapon. Probably about 3 years.
I agree... I said over 1 year - I'd anticipate around the same timeframe, 3 years or so. They will want to grow their political clout and military might before they do anything to really push against the Israelis.
Israel is also trying to repair their reputation internationally, this can be seen by their recent concessions on negotiating. They know that the muslim world holds a great deal of sway through Europe - a combination of anti-semetism and oil money.. We'll see them hold back because of that over the next couple of years.
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