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Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject: Canada faces a Friday deadline on NAFTA!!! Reply with quote

Quote:
Markets Tread Water Ahead Of Looming Deadline For Canada To Reach Nafta Deal
by Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/29/2018 - 06:48

Continuing the early morning trend seen in recent days, US equity futures are little changed, following muted and lackluster European and Asian sessions, as investors treaded water on several outstanding trade issues, including Friday's deadline for Canada to reach a deal to renew the Nafta deal, optimism over the U.S.-Mexico trade deal fading and a deadline for the next round of China-U.S. tariffs looming next week. (Emphasis added.)


Overnight, futures got a modest boost after the Globe and Mail reported that after foreign minister Chrystia Freeland arrived in the US on Tuesday afternoon to engage in negotiations, Canada was ready to make concessions to the Trump administration on the country’s dairy market in exchange for compromises on other areas. According to the report, Canada would agree to change one rule that blocked American farmers from exporting ultrafiltered milk to Canada, and also offer U.S. a percentage of its dairy market; In return, Canada wants to keep Chapter 19, which allows the countries to challenge each others’ punitive duties at bi-national trade panels.


Meanwhile, ahead of the Friday deadline, the U.S. made it clear that the deadline for an agreement in principle is Friday, with no wiggle room, an official said. Despite U.S.-Mexico progress, key issues remain for Canada, although markets are betting a deal will be reached that includes Canada. Freeland struck a positive tone before and after, saying aspects of an accord struck without Canada at the table will help advance other issues. She said it will be an “important and constructive week” and that Canada was encouraged by progress made without them.

On another front of the global trade conflicts, analysts at JPMorgan noted the deadline for public comment on Trump’s increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods was less than a week away on Sept. 5.

“End-of-month flows could start to take hold into the end of the week, and combined with light news flow and the risk of impending trade war escalation could result in conviction remaining light,” JPM cautioned. The White House has said it wants to settle NAFTA before dealing with China, suggesting that trade disputes will run well into 2019. [....]
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-29/markets-tread-water-ahead-looming-deadline-canada-reach-nafta-deal


Freeland is tryibg to get some 'face-saving' thing out of it!

You will note the G&M line ... how they merely tweaked a few words on the milk tariff. They should be regarded as a former newspaper ... when a sovereign nation is given until Friday to sign a trade deal, it means they are over the barrel. Never a good bargaining position.

We will soon know. But no mention of the Friday deadline in the Canadian media.

The good thing about it is IF the G&M (posing as a news organization) is doing the PR work out front of the capitulation, it suggests that they are submitting to the humiliating defeat for the good of the country! It's the first good thing they've done.
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

".. when a sovereign nation is given until Friday to sign a trade deal, it means they are over the barrel. "

More Trump bluff. He cannot do it since he does not have the power.

Congress gave him and the USTR (trade reps) the power to negotiate a trilateral deal. Not a bilateral deal.

We will get what we want for the most part (as will the USTR) , and Trump wont kill the subsidies on dairy and we wont kill the dairy supply issue here.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it's a bluff, I hope it's a bluff that out testicularly-challenged PM falls for. This isn't a time for puffed up empty suits.

I am hopeful we lose the Dairy Cartel and keep the auto jobs. That's win-win as far as I am concerned.

That's the deal Trump is trying to bluff us into? Sorry, TC, but you have to be out of your mind. He has prepared the ground so that if we chose to keep the dairy cartel, we will lose auto jobs to job-hungry auto-producers like the former Democrat states of Michigan and Ohio.

That's not what I think. That's the conclusion I have come to but I listen to people who have more realistic priorities than you do.

Americans think we have huge tariffs all over now, and they don't know about the millions of tons of cheese stored away to keep the price high. Public opinion is being prepared.

The administration thinks the Trudeau-crats have tried to use these negotiations to advertise their own virtue ... confident that Donald Trump would be squelched in the Congress. Nobody leads off a trade negotiation with gender and environmental demands on their trading partners if they seriously want a deal. They thought they could stall until Trump was gone.

It didn't work, and now we are one small, technical step away from an ultimatum.
Our negotiation position has collapsed. We have no leverage. Keeping our auto industry is a good outcome under the circumstances.

We aren't being raped. The dairy cartel is not what keeps Canada together. It was on the table in Asia and the EU deals. We are being offered a part in the biggest market in the world, right at a point where it is being energized. TC, if you were a man, you'd feel a stiffening in your loins, just at the thought of how much opportunity there is out there. You'd feel horny for the future.

There are new terms, for certain, but these terms will give us as stable and prosperious economic future as we can get. What other move is open to us?

Trudeau better smarten up fast. And lay down ... he led us here.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Freeland, keep on doing the right thing !

A good deal both ways or no deal at all. Keep the dairy, tell the Yanks to stop making waaaaaay too much, ya know cuz they get subsidies to do so and we can chat in the future.

Auto trade , no worries, GM Ford and Chrysler have the ear of the gov't. They wont let this happen.
Not to mention far too many Republicans are smart enough to know that Canada is a major player for them.

Sunny days to come !
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder what "right thing" is that she should keep on doing ... because it isn't working so far. This is from government news ... oops, the CBC ...

I have highlighted a few relevant paragraphs. The article refers to Trudeau, but you could substitute Crystia Freeland. It would be good if TC directed himself to the implications of those paragraphs and how that illustrates his support for the Freeland/Trudeau partnership.

They have left us in a position that, as Trump said, is going to cost Canada a lot of money ...

Quote:
For Canada, a bad NAFTA deal is better than no deal at all
There are no poison pills left — only bitter ones for Canada to swallow

Meredith Lilly · for CBC News · Posted: Aug 28, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: August 28

With no NAFTA deal or regard for international trade rules, there is little to stop a petulant and vengeful president from introducing tariffs on other Canadian exports, or from obstructing cross-border flows of goods and people. (Evan Vucci/Associated Press)
3287 comments

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with Mexico, signalling he may withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA unless Canada rejoins the talks on his terms. Trade lawyers will argue about the constitutionality of the president's threats, but Canada has no choice but to take them seriously.

Once again at the table, the U.S. will essentially offer us a take-it-or-leave-it deal based on the Mexico-U.S. negotiations. It will certainly be a worse deal for Canada than the NAFTA we have known for more than two decades, and Trump will force Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to either make serious concessions, or else be pushed aside.

To accept the Canadian government's mantra that "no deal is better than a bad deal" is to misread the situation. First, that view arrogantly overstates our economic importance to the Americans. Despite having a balanced trading relationship, 75 per cent of Canada's exports are bound for the U.S., while only 15 per cent of U.S. exports are destined for Canada. Our research on the post-Sept. 11 period demonstrates that American businesses can reorient those exports away from Canada when bilateral barriers to trade increase.

Second, the argument fundamentally misunderstands how the ground has shifted with Mexico since its incoming president was elected in July. President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is anxious for NAFTA to be finalized so that he can focus on domestic matters, and both the U.S. and Mexico are using the transition period to accelerate a deal.


If Canada walks away from a NAFTA-lite, President Trump has promised to get revenge by imposing punitive tariffs on Canada's auto sector. (Evan Vucci/Associated Press)
Failing to secure even a "bad deal" for Canada would be devastating for the country. In a situation where Canada walks away from a NAFTA-lite, President Trump has promised to get revenge by imposing punitive tariffs on Canada's auto sector. If introduced in the 25 per cent range, such action would be catastrophic to the Ontario economy, with job losses estimated by some at more than 100,000. With no NAFTA deal or regard for international trade rules, there is little to stop a petulant and vengeful president from introducing tariffs on other Canadian exports, from obstructing cross-border flows of goods and people.

In essence, Trudeau is being forced to negotiate with a gun to his head. There are a range of matters still to be resolved, but it seems as though there are no poison pills left — only bitter ones for Canada to swallow. [....]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/nafta-canada-1.4800838


What they are trying to avoid saying is that this negotiation has been totally botched, and was based on the supposition that Trump would be unable to execute his trade plans because of domestic US politics -- all dead wrong.

One wonders -- what is the good part of Crystia Freeland? Is there anything she's good at besides whining about the bad deal women get?

*****************************************

Despite everything, I think that the Liberals are waking up This article, for instance, prepared the ground for the new narrative. It isn't that our leadership is dim-witted, unprepared, and blew it ... it's that we're being bullied.

But that means they are already trying to avoid the consequences of a humiliating defeat.

Which is like the smoke from the chimney that announces a new pope.


Last edited by Bugs on Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At an absolute minimum;
If any agreement that is reached on NATFA includes:

1) The Buy America Provision exemption which would allow Canadian companies to bid on US funded contracts without the local content requirement.

2) Secures an expanded E Series Visa listing for Professionals in Canada to work in the US

3) Is able to clean up Chapter 19 pertaining to Regulating Disputes which has proven ineffective since NAFTA was signed

3B) Secure a better deal that the Federal Government secured in 2006 on the Softwood Lumber issue

4) Removes the recently applied tariffs

5) Are able to replace Chapter 11 w/ a similar system to what was secured in the CETA agreement by the previous Government.

(All items that have been on the table since day one except for tariffs).

It doesn't make the deal ideal, but it makes it palatable.
Anything short of that makes me wonder exactly what we have been doing for the last year?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are a generous and cautious man. Most ofthe time that is probably good. But sometimes understatement is as bad as hyperbole.

We all know how it happened, even if we can't prove it. Trudeau was a year in office when Trump assumed power, and exulting in an initial wave of world-celebrity that swept him away. He had taken a 400-person delegation to Paris for a week, for example. The grandiose gesture, on a ZZ Top/Duck Dynasty taste level, became his hallmark. (He doesn't wear camo but he thinks it would be cool if he did ... )

Trump was elected, and almost immediately the Russian collusion narrative was hatched. The plans were underway to impeach him. Democrats seemed 100% confident that they could unseat him once they managed to saddle him with a Special Counsel.

For the first Trump year, Justin was actually 'soft campaigning' for all the things that Trump was opposed to. He opened our borders. and tut-tutted walls. He was on the cover of The Rolling Stone, and appearing at Women's Conferences, getting awards for being the biggest "trick" of Heads of States. Women loved him because his very existence proves men can be bimbos too ... he thought it was because he was on their side.

It must have been exhilarating.

But we're not talking about a guy with any 'gravity' to him. Light as helium, he must have drifted into that happy place where you rule from a cloud you sit on, in full lotus, floating a few feet above the ground. Everywhere he went attractive young people were hitting on him for selfies. And he just knew ... at last, the world is recognizing how truly wonderful I am ...

That must have been the state of the whole inner circle when they decided how to approach the negotiations with Trump. In a state of delusion, they decided to lead off with their social justice demands ... gender rights in Mexico. World-leading environmental standards. All that stuff ...

Trump offered us a quick deal that targeted something that had been on the table in the Pacific treaty talks and the EU talks -- supply management. The US thought that would give them the appearances of a 'quick victory' and the status quo in auto for us. We would make a small concession that was actually good for the consumer.

It was a nothing concession.

Freeland smelled a rat. You're not going to push US around she snorted.

Too bad. Then Mexico would be facing a take-it-or-leave-it situation. Not us. Trump didn't even bother to push. He finessed us.

Our leadership thought that if they showed the Americans that we can't be pushed around, they would restore their position in the polls.

Wrong. We can be pushed around very easily. Better we do not encourage them to try.

************************************

Isn't that the situation, in broad strokes? The Liberals were entirely delusional when they cast their strategy. Where were the senior civil servants that let this happen? There is so much here that needs to be questioned and won't be. But there have to be a lot of personnel changes in the senior civil service.

This is not a time for temperate talk. This is a time to make allegations and making them prove the allegations wrong. I don't speak of the courtroom, I speak of the Court of Public Opinion.

Bernier comes closest when he says they planned to 'play politics' with the issue, and come out the big winner, the Canadians who stood up to Trump and made him back down. You can imagine the media narratives easily. Doubtless, they planned that kind of presentation.

Trump just pulled the rug out from under them. He refused to waste the time. He made a deal with Mexico, and now we are stuck. Now the focus will be on the dairy tariff. That's was the prize that Trudeau was trying to save.

Why shouldn't the Liberals be confronted with their results, and the consequences for Canada? It's the most spectacular display of incompetence that I can remember. It could be as politically disasterous as Meech Lake. The CBC estimate is 100,000 jobs lost in Ontario alone.

Why shouldn't they be confronted in the most accusatory of terms?

The only reason I can think of is that Andrew Scheer, too, is in thrall to the Dairy Cartel. And that is truly outrageous.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is Ezra Levant reviewing the whole progress of Canada's negotiations, and it's even worse than I thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyJpVlqzwSY

The story he tells: After the Mexico deal, Trump phoned Trudeau. Trudeau did not take the call, claiming another engagement.

After that phone call, Trump announced the Mexico-USA Trade Deal, and said that if Canada didn't agree by Friday, he would put a 20% tariff on Canadian auto exports.

Freeland went to Washington on Monday or Tuesday, and did not get a meeting with the Secretary of State, as protocol would dictate. She had to talk to the chief trade negotiator in his office! Do the Kremlinology.

Jarad Kushner was at the meeting. That's Trump's family. That means they were ready to cut a deal.

Freeland was late for the meeting! We don't know the results.

Tomorrow's the deadline.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
'Humiliating' U.S.-Mexico trade deal will limit success of NAFTA negotiations, says Conservative MP
We're only hearing about what we might give up, says Pierre Poilievre
CBC Radio · August 30

The U.S.-Mexico trade deal has left Canada on the defensive, and made success in the NAFTA negotiations more difficult, according to a Conservative MP.

"We're not hearing about gains Canada might make in these trade negotiations, only what we might give up," said Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative finance critic.

"That sounds like so far the government has been unsuccessful at advancing any Canadian trade objectives," he told The Current's guest host Connie Walker.

U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the deal, announced Monday, as a replacement for NAFTA. He promised to bring it to Congress by Friday — leaving Canadian officials just days to either hammer out a way to join the deal, or risk missing out.

Trump needs a trade deal win — and that could help Canada, says former ambassador
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland has been in Washington since Tuesday, but the Liberals' handling of the issue has been heavily criticized by the Conservative opposition.

Poilievre said that it had been "humiliating" to watch the U.S. and Mexico negotiate a deal behind Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's back. [....]'
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-august-30-2018-1.4804483/humiliating-u-s-mexico-trade-deal-will-limit-success-of-nafta-negotiations-says-conservative-mp-1.4804489

'
Otherwise ... silence from our elected representatives. Fat lot of good they do, all loyal to their leader, the Dairy Cartel's favourite politician ...
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Ahead of Nafta Deadline, Trump Says Canada Has No Choice But to Make a Deal
By Andrew Mayeda , Josh Wingrove , and Eric Martin
August 30, 2018, 6:48 PM EDT Updated on August 31, 2018, 10:09 AM EDT

The Trump administration is pushing Canada to give ground on its politically sensitive dairy sector as talks to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement approach a U.S.-imposed deadline of Friday for a tentative deal.

“The negotiations between the United States and Canada are ongoing. There have been no concessions by Canada on agriculture,” a spokesperson for the office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Friday in an email.

Lighthizer still plans to send a notice to Congress on Friday of President Donald Trump’s intention to sign a deal to replace Nafta, as the administration has previously indicated, said a person familiar with the matter.

Trump is stepping up pressure on the Canadians to join a preliminary deal that he reached with Mexico earlier this week. It’s unclear whether the president’s tactics will be enough to spur concessions that bridge the final divides.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/trump-says-nafta-deal-close-as-negotiators-rush-to-meet-deadline


What he means is that the US is giving Canada no practical choice. That's what a humiliating defeat looks like from the other side.
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We dont have to make a deal right now, and neither does Mexico and they know it.

We dont just sign on to some arbitrary deadline imposed by a man who knows nothing of trade.

We cannot be held hostage by a guy who...
1) Lies constantly
2) Has shown no interest in knowing the facts about trade (300% tariff anyone?)
3) Has a history of agreeing then backing out of deals. Witness his own biz
4) Has gone bankrupt more times than should be allowed
5) Has shady..as in real shady past and present.
6) Has a deplorable idea of how this works, witness his zero sum game.

Yea, they guy is a fucking idiot and former Pres of Mexico is right.

But what we can hopefully count on is the Trade Reps know what they are doing and will work out an amicable deal. We may take a small hit and thats no good but we can always square that out in the future.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TC blathers on without regard to factual reality.

This is the reality, this is what's really going on according to The Canadian Press.

Quote:
... Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland is back at the NAFTA table in Washington this morning with today's deadline looming over the talks to bring Canada back into the North American free-trade fold.

Freeland has been in meetings all week with her American counterpart, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. They met late into the evening Thursday in search of a compromise in time for the deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

"We've all had a night to reflect, and I'm looking forward to hearing what Ambassador Lighthizer has to say this morning," she said before heading into her latest meeting.
https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/08/31/freeland-lighthizer-reconvene-in-washington-as-nafta-talks-reach-critical-stage/#.W4lgrehKjIW


When TC confronts unpleasant aspects of reality, he starts insulting reality. Or the messenger. It's because he has no argument, and he's denying what everyone can see.

The plain fact is we have an essentially a take-it-or-leave-it deal on autos or we will have a tariff imposed. My bet is we'll lose supply-management too.

Usually negotiations take place with Foreign Minister to Secretary of State, or Prime Minister to President. Here we have our Foreign Minister dickering with an undersecretary for trade ... at his office ... Do the Kremlinology ...
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

Usually negotiations take place with Foreign Minister to Secretary of State, or Prime Minister to President.


Thank you. Showing your true ignorance !

The above confirms you have less knowledge about the way these things work than I thought.

LOL...you really think Reagan and Mulroney hashed it out? Nobody but Putin and the Italian PM hashed things out...of course that was so they could line their pockets. I know i know...history is your weakest link.

Oh my.... back to school or get a refund.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The point is that TC said there's no deadline. He also implied that it was normal for Foreign Ministers do the actual thrashing out of details with lower level American bureaucrats.

He responds with insults, so you know he doesn't have a real answer. Both the Canadian Foreign Minister and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, an underling far below Secretary of State rank, are acting as if it is important to get this done before a deadline.

These negotiations have been so badly botched that there are no intelligent defenders of the approach. Only TC.
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
The point is that TC said there's no deadline.

Only the one the idiot thinks he has to have.

The truth is, an oblivious to you, is that all COngress has to know is that Canada is in and that bilateral deal (the one that will go nowhere) will be dealt with as a trilateral deal. IOW...NAFTA.
Quote:
He also implied that it was normal for Foreign Ministers do the actual thrashing out of details with lower level American bureaucrats.

No thats just you being silly again.

Nice try. Well...not really.

Trade Reps/delegates do the heavy lifting on most of the deal, then the fine print starts being seen and the bigger folks get involved.


Quote:

He responds with insults,

Nope. just mock your silliness. Get smarter and all will be well. Be silly and I will point it out.
Quote:
Both the Canadian Foreign Minister and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, an underling far below Secretary of State rank, are acting as if it is important to get this done before a deadline.

Well duh.

And the sun rises in the east. Golf clap....
Quote:

These negotiations have been so badly botched that there are no intelligent defenders of the approach. Only TC.


You dont know shit so your opinion is moot.

But there have been mistakes made, no one denies that. But when you know the other guy is not negotiating in honest then you are handcuffed.
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Canada faces a Friday deadline on NAFTA!!!

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