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Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:39 am    Post subject: Where do we go from here? Reply with quote

Where are we now?

I asked queenmandy to put that focus on it, but it overlooked that. But that really is the question, isn't it? People want to put the blame on Bernier without examining his treatment in the party. And by invoking the rules of a command-and-control hierarchy.

That doesn't work for me. I put the blame on the misconstrued ballot that produced this result. if it were possible to go back and reconstruct the voting on the basis of one-person-one-vote, who would win?

We must not continue 'the elaborate points scheme that 'rigs' the electoral process to that the weight of areas that never vote Conservative is fully counted. This is theatre-of-the-absurd stuff. That's how the dairy cartel came to control the Conservative Party.

And then, to stack the vote so that, in some cases, people were rank'-ordering their choices, three or four deep, and 13 ballotq into the future without actually seeing the candidates perform side-by-side,

This voting system didn't work. It affected the campaign, and it could well have given us the leader that fewest people hate, rather than the one with fire in his belly.

Contrast where we stand today to where we might have been if the leadership had gone to the Bernier-O'Leary team!

This convention would have been an exciting event, rallying the mob for the upcoming election. Instead, it was a managed event, where the issue of supply-management was not even debated! Is it any wonder that Bernier left?

We come out of it depressed, and blaming the only one of these 'managers to have a spark. The media are having a party, rallying (largely) to Scheer.

It's pretty depressing because five more years of Trudeau will leave the country like the same crowd left Ontario ... broke and despondent. But how much different will Scheer be than Trudeau? We don't know anything about this guy because his track record is so light. Face it, whatever happens to Bernier, Scheer is a mistake.

Any thoughts? Where do we go from here? Do we follow the Dairy Cartel's leadership or can we find a better alternative?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a video that serves as a recap of the Conservative Convention in Halifax.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn8FPxiDK88

It's long-term conservative Ezra Levant and a reporter, discussing the convention. It's gentle, but it presents a disturbing picture. Some in the party are upset that Bernier has left, including the two commentators. I'm sure they realize that this is the best news Justin has gotten in a year or more.

At the end. Scheer attended a celebration thrown by the Milk Cartel! He seems to think he had a good convention!
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The system isn't ideal;

However if Bernier's stance is considered the precedent then Christine Elliott has more right than anyone to ask for the victor of that race to step aside as she won the popular vote and the true vote count and still lost to Ford, which worked out.

I can't in good conscience damn the system that didn't deliver me Bernier while staying quiet about the same system that delivered me Ford.

The system was the system the day every candidate declared their intention to run;

While I am fine to have discussions about changing it, complaining that the goalposts weren't moved in order to facilitate the victory of XYZ after the fact makes us sound like New Democrats.

The party should spend some time, energy, and effort on a new system for the next race which will likely be in about two years time.

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Conventions

I am not a fan.
I have been to a few on different sides of the political spectrum and I think the party faithful who doesn't attend would be in a state of shock if they really know some of the "factors" that comes into play behind someone delivering their delegates.

Based on what I have seen in the past, when Bernier and Scheer started to distance themselves from the masses you would have likely seen candidates with double digit or close to double digit support start shopping their delegates to O'Toole likely in exchange for some consideration if he won.

You feel a Convention would have delivered Bernier;
Whereas I am almost certain it would have delivered O'Toole.

You watched the Convention over the weekend;
Do you think those people in delegate form would have made Bernier leader?

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A better way;
I hate points and I dislike conventions, so whats the system that works for me?

Two votes.

The reality is this race was not exactly party unifying;
It took 13 rounds for one candidate to limp over 50% and what is worse is it took 12 rounds for one candidate to limp over 40%

They were all stiffs, this certainly wasn't the first round ballot win by Harper in 2003.

Its not their fault they were stiffs, they really didn't get a chance to make themselves known in a sea of others.

The majority of the party didn't get their first choice, for that matter their second or third choice either in many cases on many ballots you may have ended up with a leader who was in the double digits on your ballot.

How excited would you be to volunteer if you had Bernier ranked 7th and Scheer 10th?

The bigger problem is how seriously can you debate platform and policy with a massive swath of candidates?

Hold one vote to narrow it down to two, three, or four;

Not all that different than the way the Canadian Alliance Selected Leaders, but perhaps with more time before the run off.

Give those four a month or two to work with the candidates who didn't make the cut, expand their platform, talk to the grassroots, meet with the Letterkenny folk, and have a meaningful discussion on policy with a less crowded stage to force them not to hide behind generalities.

The best way to gauge someones metal is to see them on stage defending their principals and its far easier to see that in a smaller field.

No one who wants to run a national party should be afraid of more debates and more focused scrutiny on policy

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where to go from here?

Well the Bernier camp will blame the Scheer camp
The Scheer camp will blame the Bernier camp
And we will get a Liberal Majority in 2019.

We get to watch potentially two Conservative Parties debate amongst themselves who the "true blue believers are" from the opposition ranks while the Liberals stack up deficits and make policy based on focus group tested rhetoric with their majority.

As someone who watched this movie already from 1993 - 2004;

I am going to sit this one out.

My hope is that after 2019 we will have a "Jason Kenney" that will step forward and realize both sides of the party need to be represented for this thing to work and that person will get my vote in whatever system the new leader is selected within.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surely if you are going to be consistent, you should be consistently right rather than consistently wrong? I understand what you are saying about the Ontario leadership. If Elliott would have won the leadership, I'd rather go with her than have to endure Scheer. But the truth is I don't object because Ford seems to have the instincts for it.

I never reacted in the Ontario leadership because (basically) I would have accepted any of them, with an asterisk beside Mulroney's name ... I was already against proportional representation, and I didn't foresee the outcome of these 'weighting' systems. I understood the motive -- to prevent the party being captured by a small group. But doesn't it now appear that it is used to game the system? That's exactly what it does allow?

I accept your point about the delegates, although my point is more that a more organic campaign process would have changed these people's attitudes.

As bad as the weighting was, collapsing the 13 ballots into one document was worse. In pre-electronic days, people would suffer through the voting and counting of three or four ballots to get a winner, but along the way, a process of bargaining broke out. And in this process of bargaining, a new team was formed. It reflected real influence in communities coming into a coalition of issues.

It doesn't mean there weren't purges afterwards, but they were peaceful resignations. And more often, a coalition was negotiated in the process.

Most of all, it involves even the individual member in the process. If these delegates had been through that process, they would have different ideas than they do now.

The electronic, 13 votes-at-once eliminates all of that, and its a real loss. The campaign should have had people dropping out when they failed to attract support -- but the points system obscured their ability to read the situation, and it was probably worse for financial backers.

It was a lousy campaign. Everyone stayed in. It stayed a babble. All this is hindsight.

The point is the Conservatives should pick their leader, without worrying about all the weighting. They should have a campaign that registers. I think of it as an experiment that failed. I certainly don't blame Scheer. He was savvy enough to profit. But I don't see that savviness anywhere else.

==========================

I agree -- without removing Scheer, there was bound to be a collision. And how can anyone over-rule the membership who elected him? Oh, well, unless there's a 17-year-old girl making anonymous charges of vaguely sexual nature ...

Can we "ghomeshi" Andrew Scheer? No, that's not our way.

Scheer is the leader through the next election. His party gets a certain amount of support simply because it is the opposition. But his form of bland mediocrity will fade against a more telling critic.

Bernier is promising to form a new party. He can at least be counted on to challenge the glib 'diversity' crap that the Liberals rely upon and which Scheer supports. Bernier could become the real newsmaker, one of the guys that the media check on because he's often good for a quote. (What if he can get O'Leary to start taking pot-shots as well?) A new party can get the coverage, use twitter, etc. and do a lot with a few resources.

I don't want to be snarky, but I think this will come to highlight the grey mediocrity of Scheer, as a television politician. That aside, his instincts are wrong. More accurately, the success of Bernier will come from a polarization of the electorate, with four parties dividing the 'social justice' vote and one against all that.

I think Scheer will find himself responding to media questions mindful of what Bernier will say as much as Trudeau. If he thinks he will succeed with the charge that Bernier is only thinking of himself ... he should realize he looks like a sissy reporting a schoolmate for not taking turns ....

This would work better for Bernier if he had more time.

=============================

It doesn't take that much to get to a minority government situation. That's the problem I am hoping what Bernier does is organize within Quebec as an updated BQ. except one that can become part of government!

But how to accomplish that? Trust the people. If Canada is isolated in NAFTA, it will be another straw ... people already suspect it ... Freeland will spin, Trudeau will come out with more idealist tripe ... and Andrew will fuzzy up the picture a bit.

In that environment, simply hearing someone in the electronic ozone utter the words-that-you-were-thinking has a transforming effect. It's as if the thought becomes concrete, an actual concept that it is permissible to talk about. It makes the one who utters them a kind of prophet.

The lone discordant voice limits what would otherwise be an echo chamber. This is the nature of our times.

Which is why I expect Bernier to be surprisingly effective if he can get coverage! Can his party form a government? No. Can it lead to a minority government? That is a more significant question. A better way to judge -- what does Bernier have to do to get a minority government?

If he is clever and has a bit of financial backing, he can have more leverage than he would have had in 'the Conservative Party. He can become a minor Jordan Peterson but in Canadian politics rather than academics. And that is something to conjure with.

There is always an election after that!

=============================

I wish I had answers. I simply think that the NAFTA negotiations demonstrate what I have been saying about the Liberals. Incompetent. Think of how fast they are going off the rails! What will five more years bring us to?

So I think getting rid of the Liberals is the top priority. And Bernier's move is a big blow to that ideal. But Scheer is such a disappointment ... we simply need better leadership, in every party, but in our case, it's particularly important because we are the only real alternative to the Liberals.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are a lot of good points there;
We are generally in lock-step on the issues we have with the system.

In terms of being consistently right;
Its hard for me not to be bias as I voted for Bernier,

While I voted for Bernier, I have been screaming about a system which reward candidates who win ridings that will likely never if rarely vote CPC

If you look at the results:
https://thomson.carto.com/builder/3df07f1f-ac18-4753-b4c3-3b8d0152c69d/embed

Bernier won Toronto, Hamilton, Windsor, Montreal, and a lot of urban ridings the CPC usually does not carry in the general election in the final round of the leadership race.

He cleaned up in those ridings I didn't feel should have been weighted the same as ridings that have strong CPC riding associations or lots of members.

He nearly won in the way I have been screaming a candidate shouldn't win a leadership race by, but it would have been forgivable because he was "my guy"?

Its why I have an issue taking a position on the Bernier / Elliott situation as "right" one way or another because everyone played the system and everyone was aware and while Bernier and Elliott have valid cases they lost per the system.

In summary: The system of selecting leaders stinks.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scheer and Bernier are both around till 2019;
Beyond that it really becomes a matter of who wants to step forward and attempt to bridge the gap.

The challenge is both guys need the voters lined up behind the other guy to win, and the animosity that both camps will feel for the other guy will almost assure neither will ever be able to lead a single alternative party.

Therefore they are both sunk; which is too bad.

Bernier is one of the few Conservatives that isn't ashamed of being Conservative;
One of the few out there that doesn't make me feel ashamed of believing what I believe (balanced budgets, etc)

In a way much like Doug Ford standing on stage surrounded by leaders who wanted more deficits, more debt, and interest be damned stood up and said you are all crazy Bernier offers that more direct path to common sense.

Scheer on the other hand has far more of a handle on the global trade portfolio (Much like Harper did) and that is to me one of the most important issues we need to address in the next decade.

Alone they both have their flaws and holes in policy,
Together they would have made an interesting team.

However both are now doomed to be their respective Brian Jean and Jim Prentice's as the party now more fractured waits for a Harper-esk unifier.

Unless Bernier comes out in a few weeks with a dozen MPs by his side and a commitment from Kevin O'Leary to run for his party its far too late in the game to be anything other than a Martyr.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In theory it doesn't take much to get to a minority;
The LPC has struggled to get above 38% and with Ontario basically tied had an election been held last month it likely would have ended in a minority.

Now;
Who knows?
Bernier may run the table and pull a Réal Caouette and swing some key seats in Quebec and command the balance of power

Or he could simply peel just enough votes off the right across the country that the Liberals continue to have seats in Alberta and Rural Ontario.

The challenge is its very late;

The issue is while Trudeau certainly has his issues;
The potential clown show over the next year of Scheer and Co and Bernier and Co taking shots at each other will be played up a hundred fold.

Conservatives in general have a hard enough time controlling the message;
Now there are two messages;

To answer your question;
Does Bernier have the chops to get around 120 or so seats to potentially have a minority government?

Maybe but he has a year to get finances in place, party leadership in place, attract candidates, and a message which can be conveyed without any assistance from the media all within around a year.

Not impossible, but not easy.

Kevin O'Leary has an opportunity to address the critics that called his leadership race a branding exercise. If he stands shoulder to shoulder with Bernier in two weeks it could change everything.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Getting rid of the Liberals is critically important;
But both the CPC and the BPC are going to be fighting each other in a brutal political civil war potentially;

Neither guy can win alone;
And neither guy will serve under the other.

So we are in a situation where we simply wait for that "Jason Kenney" to realize both sides of this split need each other to govern in a FPTP system.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( it doesn't appear there are any current mp's willing to join Bernier's party even the ones who supported him as cpc leader )



Overwhelming majority of Tory MPs have no intention of joining Bernier, survey reveals


Daniel Leblanc Parliamentary reporter

Laura Stone

Ottawa


Published 13 hours ago

Updated August 28, 2018




Open this photo in gallery


One-time leadership candidate Maxime Bernier announces he will leave the federal Conservative Party during a news conference in Ottawa on Thursday Aug. 23, 2018.

Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

Almost all Conservative MPs are closing the door to ever joining the new right-wing party being set up by Quebec MP Maxime Bernier, with only a handful not responding to queries about their intentions following Mr. Bernier’s move.

The results of an e-mail survey of the entire Conservative caucus show overwhelming opposition toward Mr. Bernier’s plan, as 92 of 96 MPs said they will not join the proposed party. But the survey left some question marks: Four MPs did not say whether they would consider joining the new party, even after follow-up phone calls.

Mr. Bernier announced his plan to create a new right-wing camp last Thursday, accusing the federal Conservative Party of being “intellectually and morally corrupt.”


The following day, The Globe and Mail sent a question to all Conservative MPs asking whether they would join Mr. Bernier’s new party, offering three potential answers: Yes, No or Maybe.

Former party leadership contestant Kellie Leitch, who was at the Conservative convention in Halifax while the survey elicited numerous responses among caucus, did not answer. On Tuesday, an employee at her Ottawa office said the MP and pediatric surgeon – who decided not to run in the next election after facing a nomination challenge in her Ontario riding – is out of the country.

Ms. Leitch’s leadership campaign last year focused heavily on the issue of immigration, a key feature of Mr. Bernier’s opposition to the Conservative Party under the leadership of Andrew Scheer.

The other MPs who did not respond were Ontario’s Scott Reid, Dave MacKenzie and Peter Van Loan. Mr. Van Loan has announced that he will retire from politics in September.



Mr. Bernier, who is now sitting as an independent, is aware there are no guarantees that he will woo sitting MPs to his formation before the next election. Still, his team feels the new party could attract a few former colleagues if it gains traction in the electorate, according to a source not authorized to speak publicly due to strategic considerations.

Mr. Bernier has attacked the Conservative Party for its continuing support for supply management in the agricultural sector and its weak response to the Liberal government’s policy on multiculturalism. In last year’s leadership race, Mr. Bernier also won support among social conservatives by promising to support the “democratic rights” of MPs who wish to table bills on issues such as abortion.

Conservative MP Brad Trost, who lost the Conservative nomination in his riding after coming fourth in last year’s party leadership race, said he is “not interested in getting involved either which way” and is likely moving to Asia next year. However, Mr. Trost said he expects some volunteers from his leadership campaign, which relied heavily on the support of social conservatives, to join Mr. Bernier’s political venture.


No. I am a real Conservative who is neither morally or intellectually corrupt
— Joël Godin, Member of Parliament for Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, in his survey response.
“Bernier’s a real threat,” Mr. Trost said. “There are a lot of people [in the party] who are discontented and those are the ones open to a new option … I’d take him very seriously.”

Of the 96 Conservative MPs in Ottawa, 92 responded “no” to the question of following Mr. Bernier – or a number of variants that left no ambiguity about their feelings. Both Rosemarie Falk and Todd Doherty opted for “heck no.”

“Not a chance in hell,” James Bezan answered.


Ill feelings toward Mr. Bernier are running high in the Conservative caucus.

“No. I am a real Conservative who is neither morally or intellectually corrupt,” Joël Godin said.

MPs who supported Mr. Bernier in last year’s leadership race also answered no, including Alex Nuttall, Dan Albas, Tony Clement, Alupa Clarke, Len Webber and Jacques Gourde.

“Not in a million years will I join him,” Mr. Clement said.

One former supporter, Tom Kmiec, is away for personal reasons and could not be reached.

Mr. Bernier is away with his family for the week. He tweeted a picture of himself by a lake on Monday, saying that he remains committed to launching his new party.

“I will work on Elections Canada documents to launch the new party and call my team and supporters across the country,” Mr. Bernier said.

Former Conservative whip Jay Hill, who served as Mr. Bernier’s Western co-chair in the leadership race, said he has no interest in joining Mr. Bernier’s yet-to-be-established political party.

“Every time the right – what I call the common sense alternative – splits into parts, the socialists win," said Mr. Hill, who was first elected as a Reform MP in 1993 before retiring from politics in 2010.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-overwhelming-majority-of-tory-mps-have-no-intention-of-joining-bernier/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a little much to expect MPs to switch parties without an incentive. First of all, they have a stake in the party, and are jostling amongst themselves in the hope of winning some crumb of patronage from the chief.

Their careers are on the line, too. They're just praying that Andrew won't go full Trudeau and "Me too" the pledge that half his cabinet will be female ... because ... you know ... it's 2018!

The place where people are getting excited is out in the ridings. The Letterkenny types. The pollsters (who I distrust) are putting Bernier's support at over 10%. And a lot of those people are energized. Who's energized for higher milk prices?

We are coming into a critical period. In the next 10 days, Canada has to either accept what Mexico and the US agreed to, or our auto industry will lose its market. Trump would be pleased to' recapture all those auto jobs for Michigan and Ohio ... they'd become stably Republican. He's only looking for a signal from Justin.

So Justin has to either accept a humiliating defeat -- see how the media cover it, by the way -- or he will send the country on the road to an economic crisis.

And there's Bernier ... and Scheer ... and Singh to choose from. on October 21, 2019.

Of course, there's a lot of work to be done but the government is in the hands -- I speak objectively -- of idealistic amateurs who don't mind 'skimming off' a little for themselves and lard up their expense accounts.

Bernier's biggest problem will be keeping his platform -- and I think he can do it.

I don't think it's unnatural to expect a minority government in such a situation, and that is the maximum situation that we can hope for.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bernier’s closest caucus ally, Alex Nuttall, won’t join his new party

By Janice Dickson. Published on Aug 30, 2018 4:40am

Alex Nutall



OTTAWA — Maxime Bernier’s closest caucus ally says he has no plans to join the renegade Quebec MP’s new party.

Conservative MP Alex Nuttall played a key role in Bernier’s unsuccessful Conservative leadership campaign last year that saw him lose by the narrowest of margins to Andrew Scheer. And he’s continued to be a close ally of Bernier’s since then.

But Nuttall says he was elected as a Conservative and won’t even broach the idea of joining Bernier’s yet-to-be-formed party with his constituents, who narrowly elected him as MP for Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte in 2015.

“I would have to go and speak to my electorate about it and that’s not something I’m going to do,” Nuttall said in an interview, adding that he is committed to representing his constituents as a Conservative MP.

“You also have to remember that I was elected by 86 votes and the reality is without having the Conservative brand there, I would not have been elected.”

Nuttall said he recognizes that he brings something to the table, but so does the party, and “when you add it together, I won by 86 votes, and I have to honour that commitment.”

Last week, Bernier declared open war on the Conservative party, abruptly announcing that he’s quitting the party and calling his former leader and colleagues “intellectually and morally corrupt.”

Bernier’s bombshell news conference took place while the Conservative policy convention was getting underway in Halifax and followed months of turmoil — much of it on Twitter — between himself, Scheer and many Conservative MPs.

A source close to Bernier told The Canadian Press last week that a number of Conservative MPs tried to contact the outspoken MP the week before his announcement but their phone calls were left unanswered.

Nuttall said he was among those who tried to contact Bernier, whom he often calls “as a friend.” But they ended up playing “phone tag.”

When he worked with Bernier on the leadership, Nuttall said the pair prided themselves on being “about the ideas” — such as small government, eliminating corporate welfare and respecting the electorate, all things he said he will continue to advocate for while remaining in the Conservative party.

So far the majority of supporters who backed Bernier’s bid for the Conservative leadership have said they want nothing to do with his plan to start a new party.

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/08/30/berniers-closest-caucus-ally-alex-nuttall-wont-join-his-new-party/
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Libertarian support mushroomed in 2015, but will Bernier benefit?

By Tim Naumetz. Published on Aug 30, 2018 7:30am


Maxime Bernier. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood



The Libertarian Party of Canada saw a five-fold increase in its vote in the 2015 federal election over 2011, but that’s no guarantee Maxine Bernier will be able to draw upon that fertile ground for his new party.

A look through Elections Canada voting results for the Libertarian Party from 2000 to 2015 reveals a surprising climb through six election periods — from no candidates in the 2000 election to 36,775 ballots cast for Libertarian candidates in 2015.

It’s been a slow but steady climb, from 1,949 votes for Libertarian candidates in the 2004 election to 3,002 in 2006. Support rose to 7,300 votes in the snap election called by former prime minister Stephen Harper in 2008. And in 2011, when Harper won his first and only majority government, support for Libertarians dipped to 6,002 votes.

The 2015 results came after the party elected a new leader, Tim Moen, a Calgary paramedic whose tweets and comments attracted broad attention when he contested a byelection in Fort McMurray.

Under Moen, 72 Libertarians ran for election in 2015, compared to 23 four years earlier. While small in relative terms, Libertarian support, however small, ranged across the country, hitting a roadblock in Atlantic Canada.

The party could not find candidates in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island or New Brunswick. One Libertarian had his name on the ballot in Nova Scotia, in Sydney, N.S., and won 242 votes.

The party fielded eight candidates in Quebec, and 28 in Ontario, including letter carrier Katerina Androutsos, who won 1,384 votes in Scarborough Centre, 3.1 per cent of the votes cast in the electoral district and the highest number of votes for any Libertarian candidate.

Moen first crossed paths with Bernier, a self-described libertarian, in 2017, offering to step aside and nominate Bernier as leader of the Libertarian Party after Bernier narrowly lost the Conservative leadership race that year to Andrew Scheer.

Bernier did not take up the offer.

Last week, after Bernier suddenly left the Conservatives on the first day of the party’s final pre-election policy convention in Halifax, Moen posted a video statement expressing skepticism about Bernier’s plan to create a new conservative party.

“Our party has been steadfast for 45 years while numerous conservative parties have come and gone,” Moen said. “Conservatives tend to be rudderless.”

Bernier was popular among firearm owners in western Canada during his leadership bid, and his fundraising results in the region revealed popularity out west.

Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, said the support for Libertarian candidates has yet to reach the level of popularity that could be attractive to Bernier.

“If you’ve got a party that’s breaking through to, say, 15 to 20 per cent of the vote, that becomes something to pay attention to,” said Kurl.

Forum Research pollster Lorne Bozinoff says if Bernier does gain support from fellow libertarians, which Bozinoff expects is possible, it might not take much to throw the Conservatives off balance.

“I would say they’re not too far off from Trump supporters, and we shouldn’t assume Canada is completely different from the States, right?” Bozinoff said.

“I think there will be some appeal for him, I’m not sure to what extent, but I don’t know that it needs a lot of appeal to do a lot of damage to the Conservatives,” he said.

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/08/30/libertarian-support-mushroomed-in-2015-but-will-bernier-benefit/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some musings ... if you look over the internet commentary on the Conservative Party schism, the response is almost entirely on the Bernier side. These people are notable for their gentleness overall. It's a tone of sadness necessity ...

On the Scheer side, there are accusations of selfishness and of disloyalty. The tone is borderline angry, but what is notable -- nobody is extolling Andrew Scheer's virtues. It's all about Maxime Bernier's faults.

Another theme. There is widespread acceptance that another term of Trudeau will be deadly for the country. That's the YouTube end of the world, it isn't a sample of the general population.

There is already a network of Letterkenny people out there, with growing YouTube channels and (no doubt) twitter accounts. It's all there, or forming -- a lot of what Bernier needs to make imd,portant gains. This may start off like the Green Party -- 10% of the vote across the land, maybe more, and no seats. Maybe they're there already.

Much rests on what the Liberals do before Friday. If the Liberals are guided by their vanity and stiff-necked stupidity, they will defend the milk cartel. If they know when to fold their hand, they'll ask for a face-saving concession.

For the record, I think they'll fold their hand, and I will applaud if they do.

But if the Liberals misplay this, the consequences will be theatrically evident within months. In that case, the Liberals will take a thrashing. Andrew Scheer is more tied to the Cheesemakers than Justin, and this is exactly the issue that split the party.

Bernier couldn't have a better historical scenario to enter than this.

But that is not the most likely outcome. If the Liberals fold their hands, and concentrate on hiding their blunders, what then?
RCO





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votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wanted to mention after reading the ipolitics article about libertarian party support in Canada .

it should be noted in the recent Ontario provincial election the libertarian party came in 5th although just short of 1 % of the vote , they got 42,820 votes province wide and ran 117 candidates . some were on paper only and didn't attend all candidate debates , never saw the one for my riding ever .


but either way there support does seem to be gradually increasing and it would of made more sense for bernier to team up with them than to try and start another very similar party

it doesn't make sense to split the anti liberal vote among several different parties unless your goal was to make sure trudeau won again or scheer lost . ( there is some who suspect bernier is bitter and just wants to see Scheer lose even if that means another 4 years of trudeau )
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