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Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am suspicious of all polls, and this one is probably no worse than others and better than many. It is almost impossible to get a true random selection of a sample, so it's not really legit to generalize too much. The pollsters do what they can to measure sub-sets of the population and then create a mathematically adjusted set of results.

But isn't it obvious that things are changing in Quebec? The recent resignations the PQ suffered are an indication -- it's like the party wants to dissolve itself, that it stands in the way of a more rational politics. Political nationalism is not the answer anymore.

Think on this: poll results measure the effects of other events on the population. They don't tell you where the opportunities lie. They don't show you a risk-free path to power -- not usually. They aren't that useful in statecraft. Leadership is creating the events that cause the polls to change.

There are huge political opportunities right now. In Quebec, as the French-speaking look for a new way of participating in Canada ... and nobody is listening. There are huge opportunities as English-speaking Canada recognizes that Justin is a loser. It's a time for a risk-taker, a person with a vision that Canadians will support. It's not that hard. Even our dweeby Andrew could do it if he weren't such a bureaucrat.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

There are huge political opportunities right now. In Quebec, as the French-speaking look for a new way of participating in Canada ... and nobody is listening. There are huge opportunities as English-speaking Canada recognizes that Justin is a loser. It's a time for a risk-taker, a person with a vision that Canadians will support. It's not that hard.


Agreed.

The CPC has an incredible asset in Gérard Deltell (Assuming Bernier will be on the sideline) that you can utilize to speak to the voters of that Province.

At the end of the day we all want prosperity and we seem to finally have a populous questioning why we can't balance the books on record (and growing) government revenue.

The importance of competent fiscal leadership is seemingly moving back to the front of voters priorities.

The CPC will likely never be the party of Montreal;
But there is no reason why they cannot enjoy the same success in rural Quebec that they enjoy in rural Ontario. Those votes share similar struggles and values.

This has to be the time to reach out.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the new abacus data poll shows lower liberal numbers as well although they still have the liberals leading in BC and Quebec but things tied in Ontario )


Liberal support sags as PM’s image softens. His India trip hurt.

March 7, 2018


By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

The results of our latest survey (February 23rd to March 4th, sample of 4,023 across Canada) reveals that the Liberal Party has seen its support drop to 36%, the lowest we have measured since the election in 2015. The Conservatives are close behind with 33% followed by the NDP with 18%. Most of the slippage for the Liberals is centred in Ontario, where the Liberals and Conservatives are basically tied (39% CPC/38% LPC).


http://abacusdata.ca/liberal-s.....trip-hurt/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:

There are huge political opportunities right now. In Quebec, as the French-speaking look for a new way of participating in Canada ... and nobody is listening. There are huge opportunities as English-speaking Canada recognizes that Justin is a loser. It's a time for a risk-taker, a person with a vision that Canadians will support. It's not that hard.


Agreed.

The CPC has an incredible asset in Gérard Deltell (Assuming Bernier will be on the sideline) that you can utilize to speak to the voters of that Province.

At the end of the day we all want prosperity and we seem to finally have a populous questioning why we can't balance the books on record (and growing) government revenue.

The importance of competent fiscal leadership is seemingly moving back to the front of voters priorities.

The CPC will likely never be the party of Montreal;
But there is no reason why they cannot enjoy the same success in rural Quebec that they enjoy in rural Ontario. Those votes share similar struggles and values.

This has to be the time to reach out.


It looks like Bernier -- who has political instincts -- is involved locally, taking issue with identity politics! And winning!

What drives me crazy is that many of the parts of a dynamite team are already in place, and there is a huge vacuum where leadership should be. There is no mission, nothing to coalesce around except Pope Andrew, who has pronounced that Mr Trump has presented some challenges on the trade file.

Jeez, I miss the Royal Canadian Air Farce.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a new angus reid poll seems to confirm trudeau's declining numbers , whats becoming increasingly clear is there is going to be less votes cast for trudeau in 2019 and less liberal mp's elected but are we talking a liberal or cpc minority ? trudeau's path for another majority is becoming increasingly thin and Scheer seems to have more of an opening than first though )



Scheer’s delight? If an election were held tomorrow, CPC could have a shot at majority government


Majority of Canadians disapprove of Justin Trudeau for the first time since he became Prime Minister


March 19, 2018 – The passage of time appears to have done nothing to soothe Canadian voters irritated with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau since his highly criticized passage to India last month.

This, combined with a simmering unease among the electorate over the federal government’s deficit spending has, for the first time, driven Trudeau’s disapproval rating north of 50 per cent.

All of this adds up to a ten-point gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties in vote intention. The latest polling analysis from the Angus Reid Institute shows that if an election were held tomorrow, the CPC – led by Andrew Scheer, would be in range to form a majority government.

The bleed away from the Trudeau Liberals includes not just vote intention, but perception of leadership. On a number of key metrics, including those that have traditionally been strengths for the Prime Minister, Scheer is seen as a better bet.

But with 18 months before an expected election, key areas of Liberal support remain solid. Millennials, many of whom turned out to the ballot box for the first time in 2015 principally because of Justin Trudeau, have not changed their minds about the leader – a majority (55%) still approve of him. And the party remains either in the lead or competitive in vote-rich urban centres, where a red surge pushed the Liberals to a 2015 majority.

More Key Findings:

•If an election were held tomorrow, four-in-ten Canadians (40%) say they would vote for a CPC candidate in their riding. This represents a double-digit gap over those who say the same of the governing Liberal party (30%). Another 19 per cent of Canadians say they would support the federal New Democratic Party

•For the fourth consecutive quarter the number of Canadians saying it is ‘time for a change in government’ has risen. The percentage of respondents holding that view is now up to 51 per cent

•Conservative party leader Andrew Scheer is seen as the leader best suited to steward the economy. This, as government spending and the deficit have emerged as the top issues of importance in the country

•While Justin Trudeau still holds an advantage over his counterpart Scheer on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister (26% to 22%), when Canadians are asked which party is best to form government his Liberals trail the CPC by 9 points (31% to 40%)

•Ontario continues to be a driver of vote intention shifts in favour of the CPC. That party now holds a 12-point advantage in the region, thanks to a seven-point shift in their favour this quarter.


http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-march2018/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its an interesting poll;

http://angusreid.org/wp-conten.....rudeau.pdf

In part because the sampling is pretty huge,
But also because it shows Quebec as so fractured.

22% undecided.

The next majority government lives there.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have sung the same tune too many times. The world is unfolding in a conservative direction mostly because their leadership is so bad.

There probably is a way that the clown PM could recover -- but he would have to do something entirely out of character. He'd have to be tough and smart. I don't think he has it in him.

(But does Scheer? He's like a black hole where charisma goes to die.)

My feeling has been that Trudeau's bubble has popped, and people are already feeling he was a mistake. Some of them are thinking Harper probably would have our NAFTA problem on the way to being wrapped up by now. But mostly, it's just embarrassing to see him prancing around like the idiot prince in some small European monarchy.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I have sung the same tune too many times. The world is unfolding in a conservative direction mostly because their leadership is so bad.

There probably is a way that the clown PM could recover -- but he would have to do something entirely out of character. He'd have to be tough and smart. I don't think he has it in him.

(But does Scheer? He's like a black hole where charisma goes to die.)

My feeling has been that Trudeau's bubble has popped, and people are already feeling he was a mistake. Some of them are thinking Harper probably would have our NAFTA problem on the way to being wrapped up by now. But mostly, it's just embarrassing to see him prancing around like the idiot prince in some small European monarchy.


While you and I could go on about Scheer and his lack of direction for days (We are generally on the same page) I have to admit I need to give him some credit over the UK visit.

He proactively met with the Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister to lay the groundwork down for a UK/Canada free trade agreement when the Conservatives returned to power.

That was a politically clever move.


Last edited by cosmostein on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

My feeling has been that Trudeau's bubble has popped, and people are already feeling he was a mistake. Some of them are thinking Harper probably would have our NAFTA problem on the way to being wrapped up by now. But mostly, it's just embarrassing to see him prancing around like the idiot prince in some small European monarchy.


This is a point I wanted to address on its own.
In terms of global opportunities for Canada and expanding our options beyond NAFTA, I think history will remember Harper as the Free Trade Prime Minister.

Chrétien / Martin / Trudeau Started the process and opened our opportunities with Israel, Chile, and Costa Rica or essentially a market of 31 million people

Harper started the process or opened our opportunities with European Free Trade Association, EU*, Panama, Columbia, Jordan, Honduras, South Korea, and the Ukraine (along with the negotiations underway for the TPP, Japan, India, and CARICOM). or essentially a market of 560 million people.

The difference which is being noticed is the Liberals use the Americans as a campaign prop to fire up their base but make no effort to give Canadian business any functional alternative other than to send their goods South,

Whereas the Tories made their best effort to work with the Americans as our largest trading partner but also worked to give Canadian Business Alternatives.

I think the population is starting to understand that this government does a lot for optics sake that that doesn't make sense in the overall scheme of things.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good for him. Nothing I say about him is meant to demean him as an intelligent person, but I get exasperated and overstate myself to make my point. There is so much opportunity...

I don't even begrudge him the leadership if he would be more of a team player. Honestly, if I had talent like Bernier and O'Leary at my disposal, I'd be getting them every bit of party support I could give them.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( you know its bad when even the normally liberal friendly national newswatch posts a link to a national post article with this headline , one has to wonder how secure trudeau's position as leader is at this point ? )



National Newswatch‏Verified account @natnewswatch · 19m19 minutes ago

Justin Trudeau is less popular than Stephen Harper was at this point in his tenure as prime minister
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( you know its bad when even the Nanos numbers have the liberals way down as they've often had them way ahead )


Liberals 36, Conservatives 35, NDP 19, Green 6: Nanos


By Nik Nanos — Nanos Research — Mar 20 2018


Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 35.9 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 34.8 per cent, the NDP at 18.5 percent, the BQ at 3.5 per cent and the Greens at 6.2 per cent.Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 49.3 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal while 48.4 per cent would consider voting Conservative. Four in ten (48.9%) would consider voting NDP while 28.3 per cent and 29.3 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the BQ and Green parties respectively.

Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 37.5 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (25.9%), Singh (9.0%) and May (5.7%). Twenty per cent of Canadians were unsure who they preferred.

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Close to six in ten Canadians (54.7%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 39.8 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. Almost four in ten (38.4%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 33.8 per cent believe the same about May. More than one in four (27.5%) said Martine Ouellet has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only).

Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals with 54.6 points, the Conservatives 52.7 points, the NDP 44.5 points, the Greens 33.7 points and the BQ 28.9 points (QC only).


https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/03/20/liberals-36-conservatives-35-ndp-19-green-6/#.WrEFy0n2Zjp
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nanos is operating on a four week rolling average so it takes time to show the true trend, next weeks polling with the February 23, 2018 dropping off will be telling.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Good for him. Nothing I say about him is meant to demean him as an intelligent person, but I get exasperated and overstate myself to make my point. There is so much opportunity...

I don't even begrudge him the leadership if he would be more of a team player. Honestly, if I had talent like Bernier and O'Leary at my disposal, I'd be getting them every bit of party support I could give them.


Agreed.

It at least showed me some direction.
Going to the UK at least established to me the benchmark of the direction he plans to take next year.

The fact that Canada does not have free trade with the UK is truly ridiculous but was a by-product of the EU. Being one of the first nations in line after the UK is free of their EU Obligations seems like a logical place to be but one where the current government seems to have no interest in.

The UK would be well served by uniting and utilizing the old Commonwealth as a direction for future trade, we would be well served hoping on those coattails.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Nanos is operating on a four week rolling average so it takes time to show the true trend, next weeks polling with the February 23, 2018 dropping off will be telling.



I think the liberals are caught off guard by how bad the current numbers are , in desperation there trying to bring back the decade old gun control debate and solve a non existence crisis in Canada supposedly involving assault rifles and crime . even though the incidents we have seen on tv happened in the US where laws are much different and these types of guns more common


my opinion is they just assumed they'd be highly popular , trudeau seemed to have everything going for him and Scheer was seen as unknown , there plan to legalise marijuana was suppose to propel them even higher and gain support from younger people but new polls indicate that is not happening and perhaps its not as big an issue among that age group as originally though


but a series of disastrous trips and problems with NAFTA have the liberals licking there wounds and left trudeau seriously damaged

perhaps trudeau can recover but if Scheer has a good 2018 without any gaffes things could get interesting in 2019
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