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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IR released a poll which seems to be more in line with most recent non-campaign research polls

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-pcs-hanging-on-lead
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's closer than I would have expected in the 905. Liberals and PCs are statistically tied, as they say, with the NDP running a strong third.

What I found most surprising is the new strength in 416 -- essentially, Toronto. The three parties are splitting the vote almost evenly, which is a huge improvement for the PCs, and some for the NDP as well.

PCs are running strongly in areas they already hold.

We have that same number come up -- 81% say its time for a change. That probably says more than anything else. There's another number too.

Quote:
The wildcard for the NDP is the relative popularity of its leader, Andrea Horwath, given that Kathleen Wynne isn't very popular, and Patrick Brown is still relatively unknown. On this point, four in ten (41%, down 1 point) believe that Andrea Horwath would make the best premier of Ontario, slightly ahead of Patrick Brown (37%, up 1 point) and well ahead of Kathleen Wynne (22%, unchanged).


This is number to watch. If Brown can open up a gap between him and Horwath, he will be the one annointed.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
It's closer than I would have expected in the 905. Liberals and PCs are statistically tied, as they say, with the NDP running a strong third.

What I found most surprising is the new strength in 416 -- essentially, Toronto. The three parties are splitting the vote almost evenly, which is a huge improvement for the PCs, and some for the NDP as well.

PCs are running strongly in areas they already hold.

We have that same number come up -- 81% say its time for a change. That probably says more than anything else. There's another number too.

Quote:
The wildcard for the NDP is the relative popularity of its leader, Andrea Horwath, given that Kathleen Wynne isn't very popular, and Patrick Brown is still relatively unknown. On this point, four in ten (41%, down 1 point) believe that Andrea Horwath would make the best premier of Ontario, slightly ahead of Patrick Brown (37%, up 1 point) and well ahead of Kathleen Wynne (22%, unchanged).


This is number to watch. If Brown can open up a gap between him and Horwath, he will be the one annointed.



Ipsos hasn't really had pc numbers as high as Forum or some of the other pollsters , so there poll by itself is nothing to get excited about


the 905 is always the most competitive area during a provincial election , this year will be no different especially with all the new open ridings up for grabs
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( this article that appeared in the star is just about enough to make you puke, first it alleges wynne is unpopular cause she is a women and its part of some trend in Canadian politics ? sexism . but pure nonsense , there is 1000 reasons for people to be upset at this governments direction and not one of them is cause wynne is a women . its lied and wasted our tax dollars for years , it was lead by a man for a while and now lead by a woman but at its core the same government )



Is Wynne so unpopular because she’s a woman?


Misogyny, sexism may play huge role in Ontario premier’s unpopularity, writes Bob Hepburn


Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne (right) meets with B.C. Premier Christy Clark at Queen's Park in 2014. Clark is the only female premier in Canadian history to win re-election, writes Bob Hepburn. But within a month she lost a non-confidence vote and was out of pollitics.





By Bob HepburnStar Columnist

Wed., Jan. 10, 2018



Here’s a quick question: How many women have served as a provincial premier in Canada?

Now here’s a harder question: How many of them have been re-elected as premier?

Give up?

The answer to the first question is eight. The answer to the second is just one, and she and her re-elected minority government lasted barely one month before losing a non-confidence vote and being tossed out of power.

All of the former female premiers were well-liked and respected when they first took office. But all were hugely unpopular when they were forced out as premier a few years — and in some cases just months — later.


Is there a pattern here? Is it sexism?

These are serious questions facing Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne as she tries to buck the trend and win re-election in the province’s June 7 election. In Wynne’s case, she is one of the most disliked premiers in history, with her popularity rating below 20 per cent for the better part of three years.

Wynne’s election in 2014 as Ontario’s first female premier, and as the first openly gay premier, was hailed as a major breakthrough for women in politics.



Now, though, Wynne and her Liberals seem doomed to lose the coming election by a wide margin to the Conservatives.

Clearly, voters have lots of reasons to be unhappy with Wynne’s performance, such as her decision to sell off a big chunk of Ontario Hydro, high electricity rates and special deals with teacher unions.

At the same time, though, Wynne has launched some of the most popular and progressive programs in the country, such as free tuition for thousands of post-secondary students, a higher minimum wage and free pharmacare for anyone under 25.

Still, she has been criticized and treated in ways unimaginable to male premiers. The abuse is sexist, vulgar and steady, a pattern encountered by many other female politicians.

Given such abuse, it’s easy to argue that misogyny is a large reason for Wynne’s low popularity ratings.

Indeed, Wynne has been disrespected like no other Ontario premier in recent history. It’s similar to the attacks Hillary Clinton faced in her 2016 run for the U.S. presidency against Donald Trump, with rants of “Hang the Bitch.”

For many voters, when things are going well they don’t care if the premier is a woman. But if times get tough, the criticism and dislike for a woman leader grows tremendously, with some of the attacks focused on her gender, and in Wynne’s case her sexual orientation.

“If Kathleen Wynne were a man, she wouldn’t be facing any of this stuff,” former Ontario cabinet minister Glen Murray told Steve Paikin, host of The Agenda on TVO, last year. “It’s sexism, plain and simple.”

All seven other women who have sat in a premier’s office have faced similar issues as Wynne is now confronting.

The first provincial woman premier was Rita Johnson, who was named interim B.C. Social Credit leader and thus premier in 1991 after Bill Vander Zalm resigned, but the party lost power in a general election 217 days later.

Catherine Callbeck led the P.E.I. Liberals to victory in 1993, but she resigned before the next election after falling sharply in polls.

Kathy Dunderdale led the Newfoundland Liberals to victory in 2011, but quit after a steep drop in the polls before the next election.

Alison Redford led the Alberta Tories to victory in 2012, but quit two years later after scandals resulted in a major drop in her popularity.

Pauline Marois led the Parti Québécois to power in 2012 but was trounced in the 2014 election.

Christy Clark led the B.C. Liberals to victory in 2013, but in 2017 she managed to win only a minority government and almost immediately lost a confidence vote. She resigned and quit politics.

Rachel Notley led the Alberta NDP to a stunning victory in 2015, but now trails the new United Conservatives led by Jason Kenney by a huge margin and likely will be defeated in 2019.

And don’t forget Kim Campbell, who spent 132 days as Canada’s only female prime minister. Under her leadership, the Conservatives won just two seats in the 1993 election.

If Wynne can defy this disturbing trend and win the June election, then she will have managed a breakthrough for women in politics as significant, if not more, than she did in 2014 when she was first elected premier.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/10/is-wynne-so-unpopular-because-shes-a-woman.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( campaign research has released another poll and has similar tight numbers but to get those numbers they had to poll a large amount from Toronto , a number in my view that is greater than the % of seats Toronto actually has and far too few in rest of Ontario , so you can read what you want from this poll )



Pharmacare and minimum wage help Wynne’s Liberals: Poll


Free prescription drugs and a higher minimum wage could boost Premier Kathleen Wynne’s political health, a new poll suggests.



The poll found Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s approval rating has “inched up” to 20 per cent from 19 per cent last month and 16 per cent in November.



By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Fri., Jan. 12, 2018



Free prescription drugs and a higher minimum wage could boost Premier Kathleen Wynne’s political health, a new poll suggests.

The latest Campaign Research survey found that 72 per cent of respondents approve of the Liberal government’s new pharmacare program, which gives free medication to everyone 24 and under.

Only 18 per cent disapproved of the “OHIP+” program, which launched on Jan. 1, and 10 per cent had no opinion.

The poll also showed that 60 per cent approve of the recently increased $14-an-hour minimum wage and its scheduled rise to $15 next year, while 31 per cent disapprove and eight per cent are unsure.

Campaign Research’s monthly tracking survey found Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives at 35 per cent, Wynne’s Liberals at 34 per cent, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats at 23 per cent, and the Greens, led by Mike Schreiner, at six per cent.



“There’s still a tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives,” said Campaign Research CEO Eli Yufest, who noted last month the Grits were at 35 per cent, the Tories at 34 per cent, the NDP at 22 per cent, and the Greens at seven per cent.

If those numbers hold up for the next five months, Ontarians could be in for a hung parliament after the June 7 election.

“Certainly, it would be a minority government (with these results). Whether or not it would be a PC or Liberal minority is too tough to tell, because we don’t have the history of the new ridings,” said Yufest Friday, referring to the 17 newly created constituencies being contested.


“However, the potential for Liberal gain based on the drug coverage as well as minimum wage suggests that the Liberals have room to grow,” he said.

That’s because the poll found the Liberals could add six percentage points from self-identified Tories and New Democrats willing to switch their vote, thanks to the pharmacare plan.

Similarly, two-percentage points are up for grabs due to the possibility of PC or NDP voters moving because of the minimum wage hike.

“So all in, we’re looking at an eight-percentage points’ increase, if the Liberals can hang their coattails on those two policies.”

Campaign Research polled an online panel of 1,544 Ontario voters between Tuesday and Thursday. A probability sample of that size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Yufest noted the poll found Wynne’s approval rating has “inched up” to 20 per cent from 19 per cent last month and 16 per cent in November.

The premier’s disapproval rating was 66 per cent, down from 67 per cent in December, and 13 per cent didn’t know.

Brown’s approval rating was 29 per cent, which is what it was last month, and his disapproval was 28 per cent, compared to December’s 29 per cent, while 43 per cent were uncertain.

In November, Brown’s approval rating stood at 21 per cent largely due to a barrage of union-funded attack ads.

Horwath remains the most popular of the three major party leaders; her approval rating is 36 per cent, and is up from 33 per cent a month ago.

The NDP leader had 21 per cent disapproval rating, which is better than 24 per cent in December, and 43 per cent had no opinion.


https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/01/12/poll-suggests-pharmacare-and-minimum-wage-help-wynnes-liberals.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the new forum polls , shows increasingly dismal numbers for Wynne , the minimum wage increase seems to have gotten them a small 5% lead in the under $20,000 income group but that was about it and still losing in the higher incomes by large margins )



Despite Vigorous Defense of Minimum Wage, Liberals Still Behind

January 17, 2018 @ 6:00 AM | Filed under: Ontario



Despite Vigorous Defense of Minimum Wage, Liberals Still Behind

But Brown and Horwath still widely unknown

Toronto, January 15th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1022 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, more than 4 in 10 (43%) say they would support the Progressive Conservatives if a provincial election were held today, with a quarter (24%) supporting the Liberals and a quarter (24%) supporting the NDP. Fewer than 1 in 10 (7%) say they would support the Green party.

Generally, the provincial landscape is very similar to the end of November, with little change, with the PCs are up 3 (Nov 29-30: 43%), the Liberals unchanged (Nov 29-30: 24%), the NDP down 2 (Nov 29-30: 26%), and the Green Party down 1 (Nov 29-30: 8%). Few (2%) say they would support another party.

Since all changes are within the margin of error, there is effectively no change since November.

Respondents most likely to support the PCs include those aged 35-44 (48%), 55-64 (50%), or 65+ (47%), males (50%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (54%), the least educated (47%) or a college/university degree (48%), and living in Southwestern Ontario (56%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (32%), females (27%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (32%), with some college/university (30%), and living in Northeastern Ontario (47%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 34 and younger (26%), aged 45-54 (25%), or 65+ (26%), the least wealthy (34%), the least educated (26%) or with a post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto (33%).

The demographics of the Liberal support have shifted noticeably since November, with its support amongst the least wealthy going from one-sixth (Nov 29-30: 16%) to a third (34%) at present, and support amongst those earning $80,000-$100,000 decreasing 10 points from November (Nov 29-30: 30%).



PCs continue to hover over a big majority

If an election were held presently, we would expect to see a Progressive Conservative majority government, with the PCs securing 88 seats.

The NDP would serve as official opposition, securing 24 seats, and the Liberals would serve as the third party, with 12 seats.



Wynne remains unpopular, Horwath and Brown unknown

Kathleen Wynne sees approval from about one-sixth (16%) and disapproval from about three-quarters (73%).

Only about 1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know.

Her net favourable score (approve - disapprove) is -57. Her net favourable score is up 2 points from November. (Nov 29-30: -59).

Patrick brown sees approval from a quarter (28%) and disapproval from a third (34%). The plurality (39%) say they do not know whether to approve or disapprove of Patrick Brown.

His net favourable score is -6. Brown's net favourable is down 4 points since November (Nov 29-30: -2).

Andrea Horwath see approval from a third (33%) and disapproval from a quarter (28%). Like Brown, the plurality say they do not know what to make of Horwath, with 4 in 10 (39%) saying they do not know.

Horwath's net favourable score is +5, up 3 points from November. (Nov 29-30: +2)



“The Ontario Liberals' passionate defence of the rising minimum wage has seen their support amongst lower income Ontarians almost double, but because they've bled support elsewhere, there's been no movement in their support, overall," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Brown's PCs still have a considerable lead, but Brown and Horwath are clearly not doing enough to raise their profile, given how many that are responding don't know about the leaders. It's a race to define: for Brown and Horwath to define themselves, and for Wynne to define Brown and Horwath."



Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.


http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....uary-2017/
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Wynne still canada's least popular premier new poll

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